scholarly journals A short-term ionospheric forecasting empirical regional model (IFERM) to predict the critical frequency of the F2 layer during moderate, disturbed, and very disturbed geomagnetic conditions over the European area

2012 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 343-355 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Pietrella
Keyword(s):  
Geomagnetic Activity ◽  
Critical Frequency ◽  
Ionospheric Disturbance ◽  
Geomagnetic Disturbance ◽  
Regional Model ◽  
Quiet Time ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Iri Model ◽  
Disturbance Index ◽  
European Area

Abstract. A short-term ionospheric forecasting empirical regional model (IFERM) has been developed to predict the state of the critical frequency of the F2 layer (foF2) under different geomagnetic conditions. IFERM is based on 13 short term ionospheric forecasting empirical local models (IFELM) developed to predict foF2 at 13 ionospheric observatories scattered around the European area. The forecasting procedures were developed by taking into account, hourly measurements of foF2, hourly quiet-time reference values of foF2 (foF2QT), and the hourly time-weighted accumulation series derived from the geomagnetic planetary index ap, (ap(τ)), for each observatory. Under the assumption that the ionospheric disturbance index ln(foF2/foF2QT) is correlated to the integrated geomagnetic disturbance index ap(τ), a set of statistically significant regression coefficients were established for each observatory, over 12 months, over 24 h, and under 3 different ranges of geomagnetic activity. This data was then used as input to compute short-term ionospheric forecasting of foF2 at the 13 local stations under consideration. The empirical storm-time ionospheric correction model (STORM) was used to predict foF2 in two different ways: scaling both the hourly median prediction provided by IRI (STORM_foF2MED,IRI model), and the foF2QT values (STORM_foF2QT model) from each local station. The comparison between the performance of STORM_foF2MED,IRI, STORM_foF2QT, IFELM, and the foF2QT values, was made on the basis of root mean square deviation (r.m.s.) for a large number of periods characterized by moderate, disturbed, and very disturbed geomagnetic activity. The results showed that the 13 IFELM perform much better than STORM_foF2,sub>MED,IRI and STORM_foF2QT especially in the eastern part of the European area during the summer months (May, June, July, and August) and equinoctial months (March, April, September, and October) under disturbed and very disturbed geomagnetic conditions, respectively. The performance of IFELM is also very good in the western and central part of the Europe during the summer months under disturbed geomagnetic conditions. STORM_foF2MED,IRI performs particularly well in central Europe during the equinoctial months under moderate geomagnetic conditions and during the summer months under very disturbed geomagnetic conditions. The forecasting maps generated by IFERM on the basis of the results provided by the 13 IFELM, show very large areas located at middle-high and high latitudes where the foF2 predictions quite faithfully match the foF2 measurements, and consequently IFERM can be used for generating short-term forecasting maps of foF2 (up to 3 h ahead) over the European area.

scholarly journals A local ionospheric model for forecasting the critical frequency of the F2 layer during disturbed geomagnetic and ionospheric conditions

2008 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 323-334 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Pietrella ◽  
L. Perrone
Keyword(s):  
Critical Frequency ◽  
Geomagnetic Storms ◽  
Ionospheric Disturbance ◽  
Storm Events ◽  
Quiet Time ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Ionospheric Correction ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Significant Regression ◽  
Geomagnetic Planetary Index

Abstract. An ionospheric forecasting empirical local model over Rome (IFELMOR) has been developed to predict the state of the critical frequency of the F2 layer (foF2) during geomagnetic storms and disturbed ionospheric conditions. Hourly measurements of foF2 obtained at the Rome observatory, hourly quiet-time values of foF2 (foF2QT), and the hourly time-weighted accumulation series derived from the geomagnetic planetary index ap (ap(τ)), were considered during the period January 1976–December 2003. Under the assumption that the ionospheric disturbance index log(foF2/foF2QT) is correlated to the integrated geomagnetic index ap(τ), statistically significant regression coefficients are obtained for different months and for different ranges of ap(τ) and used as input to calculate the short-term ionospheric forecasting of foF2. The empirical storm-time ionospheric correction model (STORM) was used to make comparisons with the IFELMOR model. A few comparisons between STORM's performance, IFELMOR's performance, the median measurements and the foF2QT values, were made for significant geomagnetic storm events (ap>150) occurring from 2000 to 2003. The results provided by IFELMOR are satisfactory, in particular, for periods characterized by high geomagnetic activity and very disturbed ionospheric conditions.

scholarly journals Variation of the foF2 parameter during fluctuating activity: Prediction with IRI-2012 compared to measured data from Ouagadougou inosonde station during solar cycles 21 and 22

2019 ◽  
Vol 41 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-68
Author(s):  
Abidina Diabaté ◽  
Jean Louis Zerbo ◽  
Frédéric Ouattara
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Geomagnetic Activity ◽  
Equatorial Electrojet ◽  
International Reference Ionosphere ◽  
Theoretical Physics ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Quiet Time ◽  
Iri Model ◽  
Equatorial Station ◽  
International Reference

In this paper, we review on diurnal variations of the foF2 ionospheric parameter predicted by the IRI-2012 model, and data from Ouagadougou ionosonde station located in the crest of the Equatorial Anomaly (Lat: 12.5°N; Long: 358.5°E, dip: 1.43°) during fluctuating geomagnetic activity conditions for the solar cycles 21 and 22. Our investigations are focused on the electrodynamic aspects, the influence of the ionospheric electric currents as well as the variations of the hourly values given by model and experimental measurements. A comparative study pointed out that the IRI-2012 model, through its URSI and CCIR subroutines, gives a good prediction of the critical frequency of the F2 layer between 0700 TL and 0000 TL. In addition, IRI -2012 tries to reproduce, as best as possible, the vertical drift E × B during minimum, decreasing phase, winter, and autumn. However, there is no effect of drift during the other seasons and solar cycle phases. A last, the model does not take into account the PRE phenomenon observed in autumn and the influence of the equatorial electrojet in this ionospheric zone.ReferencesAcharya R., Roy B., Sivaraman M.R., 2010. Dasgupta A. An empirical relation of daytime equatorial total electron content with equatorial electrojet in the Indian zone. J Atmos Terr Phys, 72(10), 774–780.Acharya R., Roy B., Sivaraman M.R.; Dasgupta A., 2011. On conformity of the EEJ based Ionospheric model to the Fountain effect and resulting improvements. J Atmos Terr Phys, 73, 779-784.Adeniyi J.O., Oladipo O.A., Radicella S.M., 2005. Variability of fof2 and comparison with iri model for an equatorial station. The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, IC/2005/085, http://www.ictp.it/~pub_off.Adeniyi1 J.O., Oladjipo O.A., Radicella S.M., 2005. Variability of foF2 and comparison with IRI model for an equatorial station. The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, IC/2005/085.Bilitza D., et al., 2014. The International Reference Ionosphere 2012-a model of international collaborationI.  J. Space Weather Space Clim, 4, A07.Bilitza D., Reinisch B.W., 2008. International Reference Ionosphere 2007: Improvements and new parameters. Adv. Space Res, 42, 599–609.Farley D.T., Bonell E., Fejer B.G., Larsen M.F., 1986. The Prereversal Enhancement of the Zonal Electric Field in the Equatorial Ionosphere. J Geophys Res, 91(A12), 13,723–13,728.Faynot J.M., Villa P., 1979. F region at the magnetic equator. Ann Geophys, 35, 1–9.Fejer B.G., 1981. The equatorial ionospheric electric fields: A review. J Atmos Terr Phys, 43, 377.Fejer B.G., Farley D.T., Woodman R.F., Calderon C., 1979. Dependence of equatorial F region vertical drifts on season and solar cycle. J Geophys Res, 84, 5792.Legrand J.P., Simon P.A., 1989. Solar cycle and geomagnetic activity: A review for geophysicists. Part I. The contributions to geomagnetic activity of shock waves and of the solar wind. Ann. Geophys, 7, 565–578.Obrou K.O., 2008. Contribution à l’amélioration du modèle "International Reference Ionosphere" (IRI) pour l’ionosphère équatoriale. Thèse de doctorat Université de Cocody,  Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire.Ouattara F., 2009. Contribution à l’étude des relations entre les deux composantes du champ magnétique solaire et l’Ionosphère Equatoriale. Thèse de Doctorat d’Etat ès Sciences, Université Cheikh Anta Diop, Dakar, Sénégal.Ouattara F., 2013. IRI-2007 foF2 Predictions at Ouagadougou Station during Quiet Time Periods from 1985 to 1995. Archives of Physics Research, 4, 12–18.Ouattara F., Amory-Mazaudier C., 2009. Solar–geomagnetic activity and Aa indices toward a Standard.  J. Atmos. Terr. Phys, 71, 1736–1748.Ouattra F., Nanéma, 2014. Quiet Time foF2 Variation at Ouagadougou Station and Comparison with TIEGCM and IRI-2012 Predictions for 1985 and 1990. Physical Science International Journal, 4(6), 892–902.Oyekola  O.S., Fagundes P.R., 2012. Equatorial F2-layer variations: Comparison between F2 peak parameters at Ouagadougou with the IRI-2007 model.  Earth, Planets Space, 64, 553–566.Rishbeth H., 1971. The F-layer dynamo. Planet, Space Sci, 19, 263.Vassal J.A., 1982. The variation of the magnetic field and its relationship with the equatorial electrojet in Senegal Oriental. Annals of Geophysics, Tome French, 38.Zerbo J.L., Amory-Mazaudier C. Ouattara F., Richardson J., 2012. Solar Wind and Geomagnetism, toward a Standard Classification 1868-2009.  Ann Geophys, 30, 421–426. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/angeo-30-421-2012.Zerbo J.L., Amory-Mazaudier C., Ouattara F., 2013. Geomagnetism during solar cycle 23: Characteristics. J. Adv. Res, 4(3), 265–274. Doi:10.1016/j.jare.2013.08.010.Zerbo J.L., Ouattara F., Zoundi C., Gyébré A., 2011. Solar cycle 23 and geomagnetic activity since 1868. Revue CAMES serie A, 12(2), 255–262.

scholarly journals Empirical regional models for the short-term forecast of <i>M3000F2</i> during not quiet geomagnetic conditions over Europe

2013 ◽  
Vol 31 (10) ◽  
pp. 1653-1671 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Pietrella
Keyword(s):  
Correction Factor ◽  
Regional Model ◽  
Local Models ◽  
Short Term ◽  
European Area ◽  
Term Prediction ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Short Term Forecasting ◽  
Long Term Prediction

Abstract. Twelve empirical local models have been developed for the long-term prediction of the ionospheric characteristic M3000F2, and then used as starting point for the development of a short-term forecasting empirical regional model of M3000F2 under not quiet geomagnetic conditions. Under the assumption that the monthly median measurements of M3000F2 are linearly correlated to the solar activity, a set of regression coefficients were calculated over 12 months and 24 h for each of 12 ionospheric observatories located in the European area, and then used for the long-term prediction of M3000F2 at each station under consideration. Based on the 12 long-term prediction empirical local models of M3000F2, an empirical regional model for the prediction of the monthly median field of M3000F2 over Europe (indicated as RM_M3000F2) was developed. Thanks to the IFELM_foF2 models, which are able to provide short-term forecasts of the critical frequency of the F2 layer (foF2STF) up to three hours in advance, it was possible to considerer the Brudley–Dudeney algorithm as a function of foF2STF to correct RM_M3000F2 and thus obtain an empirical regional model for the short-term forecasting of M3000F2 (indicated as RM_M3000F2_BD) up to three hours in advance under not quiet geomagnetic conditions. From the long-term predictions of M3000F2 provided by the IRI model, an empirical regional model for the forecast of the monthly median field of M3000F2 over Europe (indicated as IRI_RM_M3000F2) was derived. IRI_RM_M3000F2 predictions were modified with the Bradley–Dudeney correction factor, and another empirical regional model for the short-term forecasting of M3000F2 (indicated as IRI_RM_M3000F2_BD) up to three hours ahead under not quiet geomagnetic conditions was obtained. The main results achieved comparing the performance of RM_M3000F2, RM_M3000F2_BD, IRI_RM_M3000F2, and IRI_RM_M3000F2_BD are (1) in the case of moderate geomagnetic activity, the Bradley–Dudeney correction factor does not improve significantly the predictions; (2) under disturbed geomagnetic conditions, the Bradley–Dudeney formula improves the predictions of RM_M3000F2 in the entire European area; (3) in the case of very disturbed geomagnetic conditions, the Bradley–Dudeney algorithm is very effective in improving the performance of IRI_RM_M3000F2; (4) under moderate geomagnetic conditions, the long-term prediction maps of M3000F2 generated by RM_M3000F2 can be considered as short-term forecasting maps providing very satisfactory results because quiet geomagnetic conditions are not so diverse from moderate geomagnetic conditions; (5) the forecasting maps originated by RM_M3000F2, RM_M3000F2_BD, and IRI_RM_M3000F2_BD show some regions where the forecasts are not satisfactory, but also wide sectors where the M3000F2 forecasts quite faithfully match the M3000F2 observations, and therefore RM_M3000F2, RM_M3000F2_BD, and IRI_RM_M3000F2_BD could be exploited to produce short-term forecasting maps of M3000F2 over Europe up to 3 h in advance.

scholarly journals Energetic particle induced intra-seasonal variability of ozone inside the Antarctic polar vortex observed in satellite data

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (6) ◽  
pp. 3327-3338 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Fytterer ◽  
M. G. Mlynczak ◽  
H. Nieder ◽  
K. Pérot ◽  
M. Sinnhuber ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Geomagnetic Activity ◽  
Seasonal Variability ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Quiet Time ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Antarctic Polar Vortex ◽  
Ap Index ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. Measurements from 2002 to 2011 by three independent satellite instruments, namely MIPAS, SABER, and SMR on board the ENVISAT, TIMED, and Odin satellites are used to investigate the intra-seasonal variability of stratospheric and mesospheric O3 volume mixing ratio (vmr) inside the Antarctic polar vortex due to solar and geomagnetic activity. In this study, we individually analysed the relative O3 vmr variations between maximum and minimum conditions of a number of solar and geomagnetic indices (F10.7 cm solar radio flux, Ap index, ≥ 2 MeV electron flux). The indices are 26-day averages centred at 1 April, 1 May, and 1 June while O3 is based on 26-day running means from 1 April to 1 November at altitudes from 20 to 70 km. During solar quiet time from 2005 to 2010, the composite of all three instruments reveals an apparent negative O3 signal associated to the geomagnetic activity (Ap index) around 1 April, on average reaching amplitudes between −5 and −10% of the respective O3 background. The O3 response exceeds the significance level of 95% and propagates downwards throughout the polar winter from the stratopause down to ~ 25 km. These observed results are in good qualitative agreement with the O3 vmr pattern simulated with a three-dimensional chemistry-transport model, which includes particle impact ionisation.

scholarly journals Physical meaning of the equinoctial effect for semi-annual variation in geomagnetic activity

2009 ◽  
Vol 27 (5) ◽  
pp. 1909-1914 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Yoshida
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Wind Velocity ◽  
Geomagnetic Activity ◽  
Physical Meaning ◽  
Solar Wind Velocity ◽  
Annual Variation ◽  
Geomagnetic Disturbance ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
Solar Wind Parameters

Abstract. Physical meaning of the equinoctial effect for semi-annual variation in geomagnetic activity is investigated based on the three-hourly am index and solar wind parameters. When the z component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) in geocentric solar magnetospheric (GSM) coordinates is southward, am indices are well correlated with BsVx2, where Bs is the southward component of the IMF and Vx is the solar wind velocity in the sun-earth direction. The am-BsVx2 relationship, however, depends on the range of Vx2: the am in higher ranges of Vx2 tends to be larger than am in lower ranges of Vx2 for the same value of BsVx2 for both equinoctial and solstitial epochs. Using the data sets of the same Vx2 range, it is shown that distribution of points in the am-BsVx2 diagram at the solstitial epochs overlaps with that at the equinoctial epochs and the average am values in each BsVx2 bin in solstitial epochs are closely consistent with those in equinoctial epochs, if Vx2 for each point at solstices are reduced to Vx2sin2 (Ψ) where Ψ is the geomagnetic colatitude of the sub-solar point. Further, it is shown that monthly averages of the am index in the long period is well correlated with the values of sin2(ψ) for the middle day of each month. These findings indicate that the factor that contributes to the generation of geomagnetic disturbance is not the velocity of the solar wind, but the component of the solar wind velocity perpendicular to the dipole axis of the geomagnetic field. The magnitude of the perpendicular velocity component varies semi-annually even if the solar wind velocity remains constant, which is considered to be the long-missed key factor causing the equinoctial effect.

scholarly journals A single-station spectral model of the monthly median F-region critical frequency

1996 ◽  
Vol 39 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
D. V. Pancheva ◽  
P. Y. Mukhtarov
Keyword(s):  
Critical Frequency ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Constant Component ◽  
Spectral Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
F Region ◽  
Diurnal Course ◽  
Single Station ◽  
Short Term Prediction

A new single-station monthly median model of the F-region critical frequency has been obtained. A goniometric functional approximation of the monthly median hourly values of f0F2 was accepted. The diurnal course of f0F2 was described by a constant component and four "tides". Only the influence of the annual and semiannual waves in the seasonal course of f0F2 was taken into account. The solar activity was depicted not only by the well known R12 - index, but also by the parameter KR, expressing the linear trend of the monthly mean values of the sunspots for the previous 12 months. The use of this new parameter gives an opportunity for the solar cycle investigated not to be divided into falling and rising parts. The main advantage of the presented monthly median spectral model is that the same approach could be used for the short-term prediction.

scholarly journals Performance of the IRI-2016 at the Brazilian low-latitude ionosphere over the South America Magnetic Anomaly during solar minimum

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juliano Moro ◽  
Jiyao Xu ◽  
Clezio Marcos De Nardin ◽  
Laysa Cristina Araújo Resende ◽  
Régia Pereira Silva ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South America ◽  
Magnetic Anomaly ◽  
Critical Frequency ◽  
Peak Height ◽  
The South ◽  
Iri Model ◽  
Radio Science ◽  
Critical Frequency Fof2 ◽  
Dip Angle ◽  
Navigation Signals

Abstract. In this work we analyse the ionograms obtained by the recent Digisonde installed in Santa Maria (29.7º S, 53.7º W, dip angle = − 37º), Brazil, to calculate the monthly averages of the F2 layer critical frequency (foF2), its peak height (hmF2), and the E-region critical frequency (foE) acquired during geomagnetically quiet days from September 2017 to August 2018. The monthly averages are compared to the 2016 version of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model predictions in order to study its performance close to the center of the South America Magnetic Anomaly (SAMA), which is a region particularly important for High Frequency (HF) ground-to-satellite navigation signals. The foF2 estimated with the Consultative Committee International Radio (CCIR) and International Union of Radio Science (URSI) options predicts well throughout the year. Whereas, for hmF2, it is recommended to use the SHU-2015 option instead of the other available options (AMTB2013 and BSE-1979). The IRI-2016 model outputs for foE and the observations presented very good agreements.

scholarly journals Investigating the foF2 variations at the Ionospheric Observatory of Rome during different solar cycles minimums and levels of geomagnetic activity

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
pp. 52
Author(s):  
Alessandro Ippolito ◽  
Loredana Perrone ◽  
Christina Plainaki ◽  
Claudio Cesaroni
Keyword(s):  
Geomagnetic Activity ◽  
Solar Minimum ◽  
Critical Frequency ◽  
Background Level ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Physical Processes ◽  
Minimum Duration ◽  
Critical Frequency Fof2 ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Low Activity

The variations of the hourly observations of the critical frequency foF2, recorded at the Ionospheric Observatory of Rome by the AIS-INGV ionosonde (geographic coordinates 41.82° N, 12.51° E; geomagnetic coordinates 41.69° N, 93.97° E) during the low activity periods at the turn of solar cycles 21–22, 22–23 and 23–24, are investigated. Deviations of foF2 greater than ± 15% with respect to a background level, and with a minimum duration of 3 h, are here considered anomalous. The dependence of these foF2 anomalies on geomagnetic activity has been accurately investigated. Particular attention has been paid to the last deep solar minimum 2007–2009, in comparison with the previous solar cycle minima. The lack of day-time anomalous negative variations in the critical frequency of the F2 layer, is one of the main findings of this work. Moreover, the analysis of the observed foF2 anomalies confirms the existence of two types of positive F2 layer disturbances, characterised by different morphologies and, different underlying physical processes. A detailed analysis of four specific cases allows the definition of possible scenarios for the explanation of the mechanisms behind the generation of the foF2 anomalies.

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