Gravity wave focusing on the Antarctic polar vortex using Gaussian-beam approximation in horizontally non-uniform flows

Ray path theory is an asymptotic approximation to the wave equations. It represents efficiently gravity wave propagation in non-uniform background flows so that it is useful to develop schemes of gravity wave effects in general circulation models. One of the main limitations of ray path theory to be applied in realistic flows is in caustics where rays intersect and the ray solution has a singularity. Gaussian beam approximation is a higher-order asymptotic ray path approximation which considers neighboring rays to the central one and thus it is free of the singularities produced by caustics. A previous implementation of the Gaussian beam approximation assumes a horizontally uniform flow. In this work, we extend the Gaussian beam approximation to include horizontally nonuniform flows. Under these conditions the wave packet can undergo horizontal wave refraction producing changes in the horizontal wavenumber, which affects the ray path as well as the ray tube cross-sectional area and so the wave amplitude via wave action conservation. As an evaluation of the Gaussian beam approximation in horizontally nonuniform flows a series of proof-of-concept experiments is conducted comparing the approximation with the linear wave solution given by the WRF model. A very good agreement in the wave field is found. An evaluation is conducted with conditions that mimic the Antarctic polar vortex and the orography of the Southern flank of South America. The Gaussian beam approximation nicely reproduces the expected asymmetry of the wave field. A much stronger disturbance propagates towards higher latitudes (polar vortex) compared to lower latitudes.

Evolution of the stratospheric polar vortex in the Southern and Northern Hemispheres over the period 1979 – 2020

<p>The stratospheric polar vortex in the Southern Hemisphere plays an important role in the intensity of the stratospheric ozone destruction during austral spring, which started in the late 1970s. The so-called ozone hole has in turn influenced the evolution of weather patterns in the Southern Hemisphere in the last decades (WMO, 2018). The Northern Hemisphere polar vortex is less stable because of larger dynamical activity in winter. It is thus less cold and polar arctic ozone losses are less important. The seasonal and interannual evolution of the polar vortex in both hemispheres has been analyzed using meteorological fields from the European Center for Meteorology Weather Forecasts ERA-Interim reanalyses and the MIMOSA model (Modélisation Isentrope du transport Méso-échelle de l’Ozone Stratosphérique par Advection, Hauchecorne et al., 2002). This model provides high spatial resolution potential vorticity (PV) and equivalent latitude fields at several isentropic levels (675K, 550K and 475K) that are used to evaluate the temporal evolution of the polar vortex edge. The edge of the vortex is computed on isentropic surfaces from the wind and gradient of PV as a function of equivalent latitude (e.g. Nash et al, 1996; Godin et al., 2001). On an interannual scale, the signature of some typical forcings driving stratospheric natural variability such as the 11-year solar cycle, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is evaluated. The study includes analysis of the onset and breakup dates of the polar vortex, which are determined from the wind field along the vortex edge. Several threshold values, such as 15.2m/s, 20m/s and 25m/s following Akiyoshi et al. (2009) are used. Results on the seasonal and interannual evolution of the intensity and position of the vortex edge, as well as the onset and breakup dates of the Southern and Northern polar vortex edge over the 1979 – 2020 period will be shown.</p><p><strong>References:</strong></p><ul><li>Akiyoshi, H., Zhou, L., Yamashita, Y., Sakamoto, K., Yoshiki, M., Nagashima, T., Takahashi, M., Kurokawa, J., Takigawa, M., and Imamura, T. A CCM simulation of the breakup of the Antarctic polar vortex in the years 1980–2004 under the CCMVal scenarios, Journal ofGeophysical Research: Atmospheres, 114, 2009.</li> <li>Godin S., V. Bergeret, S. Bekki, C. David, G. Mégie, Study of the interannual ozone loss and the permeability of the Antarctic Polar Vortex from long-term aerosol and ozone lidar measurements in Dumont d’Urville (66.4◦S, 140◦E), J. Geophys. Res., 106, 1311-1330, 2001.</li> <li>Hauchecorne, A., S. Godin, M. Marchand, B. Hesse, and C. Souprayen, Quantification of the transport of chemical constituents from the polar vortex to midlatitudes in the lower stratosphere using the high-resolution advection model MIMOSA and effective diffusivity, J. Geophys. Res., 107 (D20), 8289, doi:10.1029/2001JD000491, 2002.</li> <li>Nash, E. R., Newman, P. A., Rosenfield, J. E., and Schoeberl, M. R. (1996), An objective determination of the polar vortex using Ertel’s potential vorticity, Journal of geophysical research, VOL.101(D5), 9471- 9478</li> <li>World Meteorological Organization, Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project – Report No. 58, 2018.</li> </ul>

Enhanced wind variability in the orographic gravity wave parameterisation and its influence on dynamics

<p>Comprehensive global climate simulations are still conducted in fairly low resolution. Current general circulation models therefore rely on gravity wave parameterisations to simulate atmospheric dynamics correctly. Among other parameters, the surface wind determines gravity wave launching in orographic gravity wave parameterisations. However, the mountainous terrain in regions where orographic gravity waves occur suggests larger surface wind variability on unresolved topography than the model grid box wind can provide. To account for this variability, we here present a stochastic modification of the low-level wind direction when it is used in the orographic gravity wave scheme of the EMAC (ECHAM MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry) model. For our first application, we implemented a random normal function to evoke a modest deviation of the wind direction at each time step when it is used in the subgrid scale scheme.</p><p>An EMAC simulation shows that this gravity wave modification locally leads to significant changes of orographic gravity wave drag, but this does not result in significant annual or seasonal differences in temperatures or winds. However, the Arctic polar vortex is stretched and its center shifts in February. Moreover, we find a shift in the Antarctic polar vortex breakdown date, resulting in a significant zonal mean temperature change in October and possibly in an alleviation of the EMAC low bias in Antarctic polar vortex strength. In this presentation, we discuss our results, the method and possible further developments like allowing gusts in the modified scheme.</p>

Spectral Early-Warning Signals for Sudden Changes in Time-Dependent Flow Patterns

Lagrangian coherent sets are known to crucially determine transport and mixing processes in non-autonomous flows. Prominent examples include vortices and jets in geophysical fluid flows. Coherent sets can be identified computationally by a probabilistic transfer-operator-based approach within a set-oriented numerical framework. Here, we study sudden changes in flow patterns that correspond to bifurcations of coherent sets. Significant changes in the spectral properties of a numerical transfer operator are heuristically related to critical events in the phase space of a time-dependent system. The transfer operator approach is applied to different example systems of increasing complexity. In particular, we study the 2002 splitting event of the Antarctic polar vortex.

A stratospheric prognostic ozone for seamless Earth System Models: performance, impacts and future

We have implemented a new stratospheric ozone model in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) system, and tested its performance for different timescales, to assess the impact of stratospheric ozone on meteorological fields. We have used the new ozone model to provide prognostic ozone in medium-range and long-range experiments, showing the feasibility of this ozone scheme for a seamless NWP modelling approach. We find that the stratospheric ozone distribution provided by the new scheme in ECMWF forecast experiments is in very good agreement with observations, even for unusual meteorological conditions such as Arctic stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) and Antarctic polar vortex events like the vortex split of year 2002. To assess the impact it has on meteorological variables, we have performed experiments in which the prognostic ozone is interactive with radiation. The new scheme provides a realistic ozone field able to improve the description of the stratosphere in the ECMWF system, we find clear reductions of biases in the stratospheric forecast temperature. The seasonality of the Southern Hemisphere polar vortex is also significantly improved when using the new ozone model. In medium-range simulations we also find improvements in high latitude tropospheric winds during the SSW event considered in this study. In long-range simulations the use of the new ozone model leads to an increase in the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index correlation, and an increase in the signal to noise ratio over the North Atlantic sector. In our study we show that by improving the description of the stratospheric ozone in the ECMWF system, the stratosphere-tropospheric coupling improves. This highlights the potential benefits of this new ozone model to exploit stratospheric sources of predictability and improve weather predictions over Europe on a range of time scales.