scholarly journals Side effects and accounting aspects of hypothetical large-scale Southern Ocean iron fertilization

2010 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 2949-2995 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Oschlies ◽  
W. Koeve ◽  
W. Rickels ◽  
K. Rehdanz
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Sequestration ◽  
Side Effects ◽  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
N2o Emissions ◽  
Co2 Fluxes ◽  
Iron Fertilization ◽  
Fertilization Experiments

Abstract. Recent suggestions to slow down the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide have included ocean fertilization by addition of the micronutrient iron to Southern Ocean surface waters, where a number of natural and artificial iron fertilization experiments have shown that low ambient iron concentrations limit phytoplankton growth. Using a coupled carbon-climate model with the marine biology's response to iron addition calibrated against data from natural iron fertilization experiments, we examine biogeochemical side effects of a hypothetical large-scale Southern Ocean Iron Fertilization (OIF) that need to be considered when attempting to account for possible OIF-induced carbon offsets. In agreement with earlier studies our model simulates an OIF-induced increase in local air-sea CO2 fluxes by about 60 GtC over a 100-year period, which amounts to about 40% of the OIF-induced increase in organic carbon export. Offsetting CO2 return fluxes outside the region and after stopping the fertilization at 1, 7, 10, 50, and 100 years are quantified for a typical accounting period of 100 years. For continuous Southern Ocean iron fertilization, the return flux outside the fertilized area cancels about 8% of the fertilization-induced CO2 air-sea flux within the fertilized area on a 100-yr timescale. This "leakage" effect has a similar radiative impact as the simulated enhancement of marine N2O emissions. Other side effects not yet discussed in terms of accounting schemes include a decrease in Southern Ocean oxygen levels and a simultaneous shrinking of tropical suboxic areas, and accelerated ocean acidification in the entire water column in the Southern Ocean on the expense of reduced globally averaged surface water acidification. A prudent approach to account for the OIF-induced carbon sequestration would account for global air-sea CO2 fluxes rather than for local fluxes into the fertilized area only. However, according to our model, this would underestimate the potential for offsetting CO2 emissions by about 20% on a 100 year accounting timescale. We suggest that a fair accounting scheme applicable to both terrestrial and marine carbon sequestration has to be based on emission offsets rather than on changes in individual carbon pools.

scholarly journals Side effects and accounting aspects of hypothetical large-scale Southern Ocean iron fertilization

2010 ◽  
Vol 7 (12) ◽  
pp. 4017-4035 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Oschlies ◽  
W. Koeve ◽  
W. Rickels ◽  
K. Rehdanz
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Sequestration ◽  
Side Effects ◽  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
N2o Emissions ◽  
Co2 Fluxes ◽  
Iron Fertilization ◽  
Fertilization Experiments

Abstract. Recent suggestions to slow down the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide have included ocean fertilization by addition of the micronutrient iron to Southern Ocean surface waters, where a number of natural and artificial iron fertilization experiments have shown that low ambient iron concentrations limit phytoplankton growth. Using a coupled carbon-climate model with the marine biology's response to iron addition calibrated against data from natural iron fertilization experiments, we examine biogeochemical side effects of a hypothetical large-scale Southern Ocean Iron Fertilization (OIF) that need to be considered when attempting to account for possible OIF-induced carbon offsets. In agreement with earlier studies our model simulates an OIF-induced increase in local air-sea CO2 fluxes by about 73 GtC over a 100-year period, which amounts to about 48% of the OIF-induced increase in organic carbon export out of the fertilized area. Offsetting CO2 return fluxes outside the region and after stopping the fertilization at 1, 7, 10, 50, and 100 years are quantified for a typical accounting period of 100 years. For continuous Southern Ocean iron fertilization, the CO2 return flux outside the fertilized area cancels about 20% of the fertilization-induced CO2 air-sea flux within the fertilized area on a 100-yr timescale. This "leakage" effect has a radiative impact more than twice as large as the simulated enhancement of marine N2O emissions. Other side effects not yet discussed in terms of accounting schemes include a decrease in Southern Ocean oxygen levels and a simultaneous shrinking of tropical suboxic areas, and accelerated ocean acidification in the entire water column in the Southern Ocean at the expense of reduced globally-averaged surface-water acidification. A prudent approach to account for the OIF-induced carbon sequestration would account for global air-sea CO2 fluxes rather than for local fluxes into the fertilized area only. However, according to our model, this would underestimate the potential for offsetting CO2 emissions by about 20% on a 100 year accounting timescale. We suggest that a fair accounting scheme applicable to both terrestrial and marine carbon sequestration has to be based on emission offsets rather than on changes in individual carbon pools.

The next generation of iron fertilization experiments in the Southern Ocean

2008 ◽  
Vol 366 (1882) ◽  
pp. 3947-3967 ◽  
Author(s):  
V Smetacek ◽  
S.W.A Naqvi
Keyword(s):  
Side Effects ◽  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Strong Support ◽  
Next Generation ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Iron Fertilization ◽  
Cast Doubt ◽  
Ocean Ecosystem

Of the various macro-engineering schemes proposed to mitigate global warming, ocean iron fertilization (OIF) is one that could be started at short notice on relevant scales. It is based on the reasoning that adding trace amounts of iron to iron-limited phytoplankton of the Southern Ocean will lead to blooms, mass sinking of organic matter and ultimately sequestration of significant amounts of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in the deep sea and sediments. This iron hypothesis, proposed by John Martin in 1990 (Martin 1990 Paleoceanography 5 , 1–13), has been tested by five mesoscale experiments that provided strong support for its first condition: stimulation of a diatom bloom accompanied by significant CO 2 drawdown. Nevertheless, a number of arguments pertaining to the fate of bloom biomass, the ratio of iron added to carbon sequestered and various side effects of fertilization, continue to cast doubt on its efficacy. The idea is also unpopular with the public because it is perceived as meddling with nature. However, this apparent consensus against OIF is premature because none of the published experiments were specifically designed to test its second condition pertaining to the fate of iron-induced organic carbon. Furthermore, the arguments on side effects are based on worst-case scenarios. These doubts, formulated as hypotheses, need to be tested in the next generation of OIF experiments. We argue that such experiments, if carried out at appropriate scales and localities, will not only show whether the technique will work, but will also reveal a wealth of insights on the structure and functioning of pelagic ecosystems in general and the krill-based Southern Ocean ecosystem, in particular. The outcomes of current models on the efficacy and side effects of OIF differ widely, so data from adequately designed experiments are urgently needed for realistic parametrization. OIF is likely to boost zooplankton stocks, including krill, which could have a positive effect on recovery of the great whale populations. Negative effects of possible commercialization of OIF can be controlled by the establishment of an international body headed by scientists to supervise and monitor its implementation.

scholarly journals Watermasses as a unifying framework for understanding the Southern Ocean carbon cycle

2010 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 3393-3451 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Iudicone ◽  
I. Stendardo ◽  
O. Aumont ◽  
K. B. Rodgers ◽  
G. Madec ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Thermohaline Circulation ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Polar Front ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Inversion Method ◽  
Co2 Fluxes ◽  
Meridional Transport ◽  
Regional Patterns

Abstract. A watermass-based framework is presented for a quantitative understanding of the processes controlling the cycling of carbon in the Southern Ocean. The approach is developed using a model simulation of the global carbon transports within the ocean and with the atmosphere. It is shown how the watermass framework sheds light on the interplay between biology, air-sea gas exchange, and internal ocean transport including diapycnal processes, and the way in which this interplay controls the large-scale ocean-atmosphere carbon exchange. The simulated pre-industrial regional patterns of DIC distribution and the global distribution of the pre-industrial air-sea CO2 fluxes compare well with other model results and with results from an ocean inversion method. The main differences are found in the Southern Ocean where the model presents a stronger CO2 outgassing south of the polar front, a result of the upwelling of DIC-rich deep waters into the surface layer. North of the subantarctic front the typical temperature-driven solubility effect produces a net ingassing of CO2. The biological controls on surface CO2 fluxes through primary production is generally smaller than the temperature effect on solubility. Novel to this study is also a Lagrangian trajectory analysis of the meridional transport of DIC. The analysis allows to evaluate the contribution of separate branches of the global thermohaline circulation (identified by watermasses) to the vertical distribution of DIC throughout the Southern Ocean and towards the global ocean. The most important new result is that the overturning associated with Subantarctic Mode Waters sustains a northward net transport of DIC (15.7×107 mol/s across 30° S). This new finding, which has also relevant implications on the prediction of anthropogenic carbon redistribution, results from the specific mechanism of SAMW formation and its source waters whose consequences on tracer transports are analyzed for the first time in this study.

scholarly journals Southern Ocean phytoplankton turnover in response to stepwise Antarctic cooling over the past 15 million years

2016 ◽  
Vol 113 (25) ◽  
pp. 6868-6873 ◽  
Author(s):  
James S. Crampton ◽  
Rosie D. Cody ◽  
Richard Levy ◽  
David Harwood ◽  
Robert McKay ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Species Turnover ◽  
Polar Front ◽  
Extinction Rate ◽  
The Past ◽  
Extinction Rates ◽  
Phytoplankton Communities ◽  
Global Extinction

It is not clear how Southern Ocean phytoplankton communities, which form the base of the marine food web and are a crucial element of the carbon cycle, respond to major environmental disturbance. Here, we use a new model ensemble reconstruction of diatom speciation and extinction rates to examine phytoplankton response to climate change in the southern high latitudes over the past 15 My. We identify five major episodes of species turnover (origination rate plus extinction rate) that were coincident with times of cooling in southern high-latitude climate, Antarctic ice sheet growth across the continental shelves, and associated seasonal sea-ice expansion across the Southern Ocean. We infer that past plankton turnover occurred when a warmer-than-present climate was terminated by a major period of glaciation that resulted in loss of open-ocean habitat south of the polar front, driving non-ice adapted diatoms to regional or global extinction. These findings suggest, therefore, that Southern Ocean phytoplankton communities tolerate “baseline” variability on glacial–interglacial timescales but are sensitive to large-scale changes in mean climate state driven by a combination of long-period variations in orbital forcing and atmospheric carbon dioxide perturbations.

scholarly journals Explicit silicate cycling in the Kiel Marine Biogeochemistry Model, version 3 (KMBM3) embedded in the UVic ESCM version 2.9

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karin Kvale ◽  
David P. Keller ◽  
Wolfgang Koeve ◽  
Katrin J. Meissner ◽  
Chris Somes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Primary Production ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Net Primary Production ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Ecosystem Model ◽  
New Model ◽  
Fully Coupled

Abstract. We describe and test a new model of biological marine silicate cycling, implemented in the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) version 2.9. This new model adds diatoms, which are a key aspect of the biological carbon pump, to an existing ecosystem model. The new model performs well against important ocean biogeochemical indicators and captures the large-scale features of the marine silica cycle. Furthermore it is computationally efficient, allowing both fully-coupled, long-timescale transient simulations, as well as "offline" transport matrix spinups. We assess the fully-coupled model against modern ocean observations, the historical record since 1960, and a business-as-usual atmospheric CO2 forcing to the year 2300. The model simulates a global decline in net primary production (NPP) of 1.3 % having occurred since the 1960s, with the strongest declines in the tropics, northern mid-latitudes, and Southern Ocean. The simulated global decline in NPP reverses after the year 2100 (forced by the extended RCP CO2 concentration scenario), and NPP returns to pre-industrial rates by 2300. This recovery is dominated by increasing primary production in the Southern Ocean, mostly by calcifying phytoplankton. Large increases in calcifying phytoplankton in the Southern Ocean offset a decline in the low latitudes, producing a global net calcite export in 2300 that varies only slightly from pre-industrial rates. Diatoms migrate southward in our simulations, following the receding Antarctic ice front, but are out-competed by calcifiers across most of their pre-industrial Southern Ocean habitat. Global opal export production thus drops to 50 % of its pre-industrial value by 2300. Model nutrients phosphate, silicate, and nitrate build up along the Southern Ocean particle export pathway, but dissolved iron (for which ocean sources are held constant) increases in the upper ocean. This different behaviour of iron is attributed to a reduction of low-latitude NPP (and consequently, a reduction in both uptake and export and particle, including calcite, scavenging), an increase in seawater temperatures (raising the solubility of particle forms), and stratification that "traps" the iron near the surface. These results are meant to serve as a baseline for sensitivity assessments to be undertaken with this model in the future.

scholarly journals Glacial CO<sub>2</sub> decrease and deep-water deoxygenation by iron fertilization from glaciogenic dust

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Akitomo Yamamoto ◽  
Ayako Abe-Ouchi ◽  
Rumi Ohgaito ◽  
Akinori Ito ◽  
Akira Oka
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Deep Water ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Deep Ocean ◽  
Oxygen Solubility ◽  
Biological Pump ◽  
Surface Cooling ◽  
Iron Fertilization ◽  
Water Deoxygenation

Abstract. Increased accumulation of respired carbon in the deep ocean associated with enhanced efficiency of the biological carbon pump is thought to be a key mechanism of glacial CO2 drawdown. Despite greater oxygen solubility due to sea surface cooling, recent quantitative and qualitative proxy data show glacial deep-water deoxygenation, reflecting increased accumulation of respired carbon. However, the mechanisms of deep-water deoxygenation and contribution from the biological pump to glacial CO2 drawdown have remained unclear. In this study, we report the significance of iron fertilization from glaciogenic dust for glacial CO2 decrease and deep-water deoxygenation using our numerical simulation, which successfully reproduces the magnitude and large-scale pattern of the observed oxygen changes from the present to Last Glacial Maximum. Sensitivity experiments reveal that physical changes (e.g., more sluggish ocean circulation) contribute to only half of all glacial deep deoxygenation, whereas the other half is driven by enhanced efficiency of the biological pump. We found that iron input from the glaciogenic dust with higher iron solubility is the most significant factor for enhancement of the biological pump and deep-water deoxygenation. Glacial deep-water deoxygenation expands the hypoxic waters in the deep Pacific and Indian Ocean. The simulated global volume of hypoxic waters is nearly double the present value, which suggest that the glacial deep-water is sever environment for the benthic animals. Our model underestimated the deoxygenation in the deep Southern Ocean due to enhanced ventilation. The model-proxy comparison of oxygen change suggest that the stratified Southern Ocean is required for reproducing oxygen decline in the deep Southern Ocean. Enhanced efficiency of biological pump contributes to decrease of glacial CO2 by more than 30 ppm, which is supported by the model-proxy agreement of oxygen change. Our findings confirm the significance of the biological pump in glacial CO2 drawdown and deoxygenation.

Intercomparison of the Southern Ocean Circulations in IPCC Coupled Model Control Simulations

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (18) ◽  
pp. 4560-4575 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joellen L. Russell ◽  
Ronald J. Stouffer ◽  
Keith W. Dixon
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Heat Storage ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Wind Forcing ◽  
Transient Climate Response ◽  
Model Control

Abstract The analyses presented here focus on the Southern Ocean as simulated in a set of global coupled climate model control experiments conducted by several international climate modeling groups. Dominated by the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), the vast Southern Ocean can influence large-scale surface climate features on various time scales. Its climatic relevance stems in part from it being the region where most of the transformation of the World Ocean’s water masses occurs. In climate change experiments that simulate greenhouse gas–induced warming, Southern Ocean air–sea heat fluxes and three-dimensional circulation patterns make it a region where much of the future oceanic heat storage takes place, though the magnitude of that heat storage is one of the larger sources of uncertainty associated with the transient climate response in such model projections. Factors such as the Southern Ocean’s wind forcing, heat, and salt budgets are linked to the structure and transport of the ACC in ways that have not been expressed clearly in the literature. These links are explored here in a coupled model context by analyzing a sizable suite of preindustrial control experiments associated with the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fourth Assessment Report. A framework is developed that uses measures of coupled model simulation characteristics, primarily those related to the Southern Ocean wind forcing and water mass properties, to allow one to categorize, and to some extent predict, which models do better or worse at simulating the Southern Ocean and why. Hopefully, this framework will also lead to increased understanding of the ocean’s response to climate changes.

scholarly journals The Macquarie Island [LoFlo2G] high-precision continuous atmospheric carbon dioxide record

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ann R. Stavert ◽  
Rachel M. Law ◽  
Marcel van der Schoot ◽  
Ray L. Langenfelds ◽  
Darren A. Spencer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Southern Ocean ◽  
High Precision ◽  
New Record ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Co2 Fluxes ◽  
Macquarie Island ◽  
Uncertainty Estimates

Abstract. The Southern Ocean (south of 30° S) is a key global scale sink of carbon dioxide (CO2). However, the isolated and inhospitable nature of this environment has restricted the number of oceanic and atmospheric CO2 measurements in this region. This has limited the scientific community’s ability to investigate trends and seasonal variability of the sink. Compared to regions further north, the near-absence of terrestrial CO2 exchange and strong large-scale zonal mixing demands unusual inter-site measurement precision to help distinguish the presence of mid-to-high latitude ocean exchange from large CO2 fluxes transported southwards in the atmosphere. Here we describe a continuous, in-situ, ultra-high-precision, Southern Ocean region CO2 record, which ran at Macquarie Island (54°37’ S, 158°52’ E) from 2005–2016 using a LoFlo2 instrument, along with its calibration strategy, uncertainty analysis and baseline filtering procedures. Uncertainty estimates calculated for minute and hourly frequency data range from 0.01 to 0.05 μmol mol−1 depending on averaging period and application. Higher precisions are applicable when comparing MQA LoFlo measurements to those of similar instruments on the same internal laboratory calibration scale and more uncertain values are applicable when comparing to other networks. Baseline selection is designed to remove measurements that are influenced by local, Macquarie Island, CO2 sources, with effective removal achieved using a within-minute CO2 standard deviation metric. Additionally, measurements that are influenced by CO2 fluxes from Australia or other southern hemisphere land masses are effectively removed using model-simulated radon concentration. A comparison with flask records of atmospheric CO2 at Macquarie Island highlights the limitation of the flask record (due to corrections for storage time and limited temporal coverage) when compared to the new high-precision, continuous record; the new record shows much less noisy seasonal variations than the flask record. As such this new record is ideal for improving our understanding of the spatial and temporal variability of the Southern Ocean CO2 flux particularly when combined with data from similar instruments at other Southern Hemispheric locations.

scholarly journals Rapid establishment of the CO<sub>2</sub> sink associated with Kerguelen's bloom observed during the KEOPS2/OISO20 cruise

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 17543-17578 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Lo Monaco ◽  
N. Metzl ◽  
F. D'Ovidio ◽  
J. Llort ◽  
C. Ridame
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Vertical Mixing ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Co2 Fluxes ◽  
Kerguelen Plateau ◽  
Iron Source ◽  
Iron Fertilization ◽  
Co2 Sink ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Iron and light are the main factors limiting the biological pump of CO2 in the Southern Ocean. Iron fertilization experiments have demonstrated the potential for increased uptake of atmospheric CO2, but little is known about the evolution of fertilized environnements. This paper presents observations collected in one of the largest phytoplankton bloom of the Southern Ocean sustained by iron originating from the Kerguelen Plateau. We first complement previous studies by investigating the mechanisms that control air–sea CO2 fluxes over and downstream of the Kerguelen Plateau at the onset of the bloom based on measurements obtained in October–November 2011. These new observations show the rapid establishment of a strong CO2 sink in waters fertilized with iron as soon as vertical mixing is reduced. The magnitude of the CO2 sink was closely related to chlorophyll a and iron concentrations. Because iron concentration strongly depends on the distance from the iron source and the mode of delivery, we identified lateral advection as the main mechanism controlling air–sea CO2 fluxes downtream the Kerguelen Plateau during the growing season. In the southern part of the bloom, situated over the Plateau (iron source), the CO2 sink was stronger and spatially more homogeneous than in the plume offshore. However, we also witnessed a substantial reduction in the uptake of atmospheric CO2 over the Plateau following a strong winds event. Next, we used all the data available in this region in order to draw the seasonal evolution of air–sea CO2 fluxes. The CO2 sink is rapidly reduced during the course of the growing season, which we attribute to iron and silicic acid depletion. South of the Polar Front, where nutrients depletion is delayed, we suggest that the amplitude and duration of the CO2 sink is mainly controlled by vertical mixing. The impact of iron fertilization on air–sea CO2 fluxes is revealed by comparing the uptake of CO2 integrated over the productive season in the bloom, between 1 and 1.5 mol C m−2 yr−1, and in the iron-poor HNLC waters, where we found a typical value of 0.4 mol C m−2 yr−1. Extrapolating our results to the ice-free Southern Ocean (~50–60° S) suggests that iron fertilization of the whole area would increase the contemporay oceanic uptake of CO2 by less than 0.1 Pg C yr−1, i.e., less than 1% of the current anthropogenic CO2 emissions.

scholarly journals Explicit silicate cycling in the Kiel Marine Biogeochemistry Model version 3 (KMBM3) embedded in the UVic ESCM version 2.9

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (12) ◽  
pp. 7255-7285
Author(s):  
Karin Kvale ◽  
David P. Keller ◽  
Wolfgang Koeve ◽  
Katrin J. Meissner ◽  
Christopher J. Somes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Primary Production ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Net Primary Production ◽  
Biogeochemical Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
New Model ◽  
Model Version ◽  
Fully Coupled

Abstract. We describe and test a new model of biological marine silicate cycling, implemented in the Kiel Marine Biogeochemical Model version 3 (KMBM3), embedded in the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) version 2.9. This new model adds diatoms, which are a key component of the biological carbon pump, to an existing ecosystem model. This new model combines previously published parameterizations of a diatom functional type, opal production and export with a novel, temperature-dependent dissolution scheme. Modelled steady-state biogeochemical rates, carbon and nutrient distributions are similar to those found in previous model versions. The new model performs well against independent ocean biogeochemical indicators and captures the large-scale features of the marine silica cycle to a degree comparable to similar Earth system models. Furthermore, it is computationally efficient, allowing both fully coupled, long-timescale transient simulations and “offline” transport matrix spinups. We assess the fully coupled model against modern ocean observations, the historical record starting from 1960 and a business-as-usual atmospheric CO2 forcing to the year 2300. The model simulates a global decline in net primary production (NPP) of 1.4 % having occurred since the 1960s, with the strongest declines in the tropics, northern midlatitudes and Southern Ocean. The simulated global decline in NPP reverses after the year 2100 (forced by the extended RCP8.5 CO2 concentration scenario), and NPP returns to 98 % of the pre-industrial rate by 2300. This recovery is dominated by increasing primary production in the Southern Ocean, mostly by calcifying phytoplankton. Large increases in calcifying phytoplankton in the Southern Ocean offset a decline in the low latitudes, producing a global net calcite export in 2300 that varies only slightly from pre-industrial rates. Diatom distribution moves southward in our simulations, following the receding Antarctic ice front, but diatoms are outcompeted by calcifiers across most of their pre-industrial Southern Ocean habitat. Global opal export production thus drops to 75 % of its pre-industrial value by 2300. Model nutrients such as phosphate, silicate and nitrate build up along the Southern Ocean particle export pathway, but dissolved iron (for which ocean sources are held constant) increases in the upper ocean. This different behaviour of iron is attributed to a reduction of low-latitude NPP (and consequently, a reduction in both uptake and export and particle, including calcite scavenging), an increase in seawater temperatures (raising the solubility of particulate iron) and stratification that “traps” the iron near the surface. These results are meant to serve as a baseline for sensitivity assessments to be undertaken with this model in the future.

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