scholarly journals Simulation of anthropogenic CO<sub>2</sub> uptake in the CCSM3.1 ocean circulation-biogeochemical model: comparison with data-based estimates

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 10895-10933
Author(s):  
S. Wang ◽  
J. K. Moore ◽  
F. W. Primeau ◽  
S. Khatiwala
Keyword(s):  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Model Comparison ◽  
Industrial Revolution ◽  
Large Fraction ◽  
Detailed Comparison ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Inversion Method ◽  
Biogeochemical Model ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Anthropogenic Carbon

Abstract. The global ocean has taken up a large fraction of the CO2 released by human activities since the industrial revolution. Quantifying the oceanic anthropogenic carbon (Cant) inventory and its variability is important for predicting the future global carbon cycle. The detailed comparison of data-based and model-based estimates is essential for the validation and continued improvement of our prediction capabilities. So far, three global estimates of oceanic Cant inventory that are "data-based" and independent of global ocean circulation models have been produced: one based on the ΔC* method, and two are based on reconstructions of the Green function for the surface-to-interior transport, the TTD method and the maximum entropy inversion method (KPH). The KPH method, in particular, is capable of reconstructing the history of Cant inventory through the industrial era. In the present study we use forward model simulations of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3.1) to estimate the Cant inventory and compare the results with the data-based estimates. We also use the simulations to test several assumptions of the KPH method, including the assumption of constant climate and circulation, which is common to all the data-based estimates. Though the integrated estimates of global Cant inventories are consistent with each other, the regional estimates show discrepancies up to 50 %. The CCSM3 model underestimates the total Cant inventory, in part due to weak mixing and ventilation in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean. Analyses of different simulation results suggest that key assumptions about ocean circulation and air-sea disequilibrium in the KPH method are generally valid on the global scale, but may introduce significant errors in Cant estimates on regional scales. The KPH method should also be used with caution when predicting future oceanic anthropogenic carbon uptake.

scholarly journals Simulation of anthropogenic CO<sub>2</sub> uptake in the CCSM3.1 ocean circulation-biogeochemical model: comparison with data-based estimates

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 1321-1336 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Wang ◽  
J. K. Moore ◽  
F. W. Primeau ◽  
S. Khatiwala
Keyword(s):  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Model Comparison ◽  
Industrial Revolution ◽  
Large Fraction ◽  
Detailed Comparison ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Inversion Method ◽  
Biogeochemical Model ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Anthropogenic Carbon

Abstract. The global ocean has taken up a large fraction of the CO2 released by human activities since the industrial revolution. Quantifying the oceanic anthropogenic carbon (Cant) inventory and its variability is important for predicting the future global carbon cycle. The detailed comparison of data-based and model-based estimates is essential for the validation and continued improvement of our prediction capabilities. So far, three global estimates of oceanic Cant inventory that are "data-based" and independent of global ocean circulation models have been produced: one based on the Δ C* method, and two that are based on constraining surface-to-interior transport of tracers, the TTD method and a maximum entropy inversion method (GF). The GF method, in particular, is capable of reconstructing the history of Cant inventory through the industrial era. In the present study we use forward model simulations of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3.1) to estimate the Cant inventory and compare the results with the data-based estimates. We also use the simulations to test several assumptions of the GF method, including the assumption of constant climate and circulation, which is common to all the data-based estimates. Though the integrated estimates of global Cant inventories are consistent with each other, the regional estimates show discrepancies up to 50 %. The CCSM3 model underestimates the total Cant inventory, in part due to weak mixing and ventilation in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean. Analyses of different simulation results suggest that key assumptions about ocean circulation and air-sea disequilibrium in the GF method are generally valid on the global scale, but may introduce errors in Cant estimates on regional scales. The GF method should also be used with caution when predicting future oceanic anthropogenic carbon uptake.

scholarly journals Mechanistic site-based emulation of a global ocean biogeochemical model for parametric analysis and calibration

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 6327-6411
Author(s):  
J. C. P. Hemmings ◽  
P. G. Challenor ◽  
A. Yool
Keyword(s):  
Uncertainty Quantification ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Optimal Parameter ◽  
Direct Method ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Major Influence ◽  
Biogeochemical Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Target Model ◽  
Parametric Analyses

Abstract. Biogeochemical ocean circulation models used to investigate the role of plankton ecosystems in global change rely on adjustable parameters to compensate for missing biological complexity. In principle, optimal parameter values can be estimated by fitting models to observational data, including satellite ocean colour products such as chlorophyll that achieve good spatial and temporal coverage of the surface ocean. However, comprehensive parametric analyses require large ensemble experiments that are computationally infeasible with global 3-D simulations. Site-based simulations provide an efficient alternative but can only be used to make reliable inferences about global model performance if robust quantitative descriptions of their relationships with the corresponding 3-D simulations can be established. The feasibility of establishing such a relationship is investigated for an intermediate complexity biogeochemistry model (MEDUSA) coupled with a widely-used global ocean model (NEMO). A site-based mechanistic emulator is constructed for surface chlorophyll output from this target model as a function of model parameters. The emulator comprises an array of 1-D simulators and a statistical quantification of the uncertainty in their predictions. The unknown parameter-dependent biogeochemical environment, in terms of initial tracer concentrations and lateral flux information required by the simulators, is a significant source of uncertainty. It is approximated by a mean environment derived from a small ensemble of 3-D simulations representing variability of the target model behaviour over the parameter space of interest. The performance of two alternative uncertainty quantification schemes is examined: a direct method based on comparisons between simulator output and a sample of known target model "truths" and an indirect method that is only partially reliant on knowledge of target model output. In general, chlorophyll records at a representative array of oceanic sites are well reproduced. The use of lateral flux information reduces the 1-D simulator error considerably, consistent with a major influence of advection at some sites. Emulator robustness is assessed by comparing actual error distributions with those predicted. With the direct uncertainty quantification scheme, the emulator is reasonably robust over all sites. The indirect uncertainty quantification scheme is less reliable at some sites but scope for improving its performance is identified. The results demonstrate the strong potential of the emulation approach to improve the effectiveness of site-based methods. This represents important progress towards establishing a robust site-based capability that will allow comprehensive parametric analyses to be achieved for improving global models and quantifying uncertainty in their predictions.

scholarly journals Global ocean storage of anthropogenic carbon

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 8931-8988 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Khatiwala ◽  
T. Tanhua ◽  
S. Mikaloff Fletcher ◽  
M. Gerber ◽  
S. C. Doney ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Observational Methods ◽  
Robust Estimates ◽  
Anthropogenic Carbon ◽  
Ocean Models ◽  
Biogeochemical Parameters ◽  
Range Of Values ◽  
Made In

Abstract. The global ocean is a significant sink for anthropogenic carbon (Cant), absorbing roughly a third of human CO2 emitted over the industrial period. Robust estimates of the magnitude and variability of the storage and distribution of Cant in the ocean are therefore important for understanding the human impact on climate. In this synthesis we review observational and model-based estimates of the storage and transport of Cant in the ocean. We pay particular attention to the uncertainties and potential biases inherent in different inference schemes. On a global scale, three data based estimates of the distribution and inventory of Cant are now available. While the inventories are found to agree within their uncertainty, there are considerable differences in the spatial distribution. We also present a review of the progress made in the application of inverse and data-assimilation techniques which combine ocean interior estimates of Cant with numerical ocean circulation models. Such methods are especially useful for estimating the air-sea flux and interior transport of Cant, quantities that are otherwise difficult to observe directly. However, the results are found to be highly dependent on modeled circulation, with the spread due to different ocean models at least as large as that from the different observational methods used to estimate Cant. Our review also highlights the importance of repeat measurements of hydrographic and biogeochemical parameters to estimate the storage of Cant on decadal timescales in the presence of the variability in circulation that is neglected by other approaches. Data-based Cant estimates provide important constraints on ocean forward models, which exhibit both broad similarities and regional errors relative to the observational fields. A compilation of inventories of Cant gives us a "best" estimate of the global ocean inventory of anthropogenic carbon in 2010 of 155 Pg C with an uncertainty of ±20%. This estimate includes a broad range of values suggesting that a combination of approaches is necessary in order to achieve a robust quantification of the ocean sink of anthropogenic CO2.

scholarly journals Modeling <i>p</i>CO<sub>2</sub> variability in the Gulf of Mexico

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (15) ◽  
pp. 4359-4377 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zuo Xue ◽  
Ruoying He ◽  
Katja Fennel ◽  
Wei-Jun Cai ◽  
Steven Lohrenz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Inorganic Carbon ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Open Boundary ◽  
Biogeochemical Model ◽  
Open Boundary Conditions ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Co2 Sink

Abstract. A three-dimensional coupled physical–biogeochemical model was used to simulate and examine temporal and spatial variability of sea surface pCO2 in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). The model was driven by realistic atmospheric forcing, open boundary conditions from a data-assimilative global ocean circulation model, and observed freshwater and terrestrial nutrient and carbon input from major rivers. A 7-year model hindcast (2004–2010) was performed and validated against ship measurements. Model results revealed clear seasonality in surface pCO2 and were used to estimate carbon budgets in the Gulf. Based on the average of model simulations, the GoM was a net CO2 sink with a flux of 1.11 ± 0.84  ×  1012 mol C yr−1, which, together with the enormous fluvial inorganic carbon input, was comparable to the inorganic carbon export through the Loop Current. Two model sensitivity experiments were performed: one without biological sources and sinks and the other using river input from the 1904–1910 period as simulated by the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM). It was found that biological uptake was the primary driver making GoM an overall CO2 sink and that the carbon flux in the northern GoM was very susceptible to changes in river forcing. Large uncertainties in model simulations warrant further process-based investigations.

scholarly journals Global ocean storage of anthropogenic carbon

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 2169-2191 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Khatiwala ◽  
T. Tanhua ◽  
S. Mikaloff Fletcher ◽  
M. Gerber ◽  
S. C. Doney ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Observational Methods ◽  
Robust Estimates ◽  
Anthropogenic Carbon ◽  
Ocean Models ◽  
Biogeochemical Parameters ◽  
Range Of Values ◽  
Made In

Abstract. The global ocean is a significant sink for anthropogenic carbon (Cant), absorbing roughly a third of human CO2 emitted over the industrial period. Robust estimates of the magnitude and variability of the storage and distribution of Cant in the ocean are therefore important for understanding the human impact on climate. In this synthesis we review observational and model-based estimates of the storage and transport of Cant in the ocean. We pay particular attention to the uncertainties and potential biases inherent in different inference schemes. On a global scale, three data-based estimates of the distribution and inventory of Cant are now available. While the inventories are found to agree within their uncertainty, there are considerable differences in the spatial distribution. We also present a review of the progress made in the application of inverse and data assimilation techniques which combine ocean interior estimates of Cant with numerical ocean circulation models. Such methods are especially useful for estimating the air–sea flux and interior transport of Cant, quantities that are otherwise difficult to observe directly. However, the results are found to be highly dependent on modeled circulation, with the spread due to different ocean models at least as large as that from the different observational methods used to estimate Cant. Our review also highlights the importance of repeat measurements of hydrographic and biogeochemical parameters to estimate the storage of Cant on decadal timescales in the presence of the variability in circulation that is neglected by other approaches. Data-based Cant estimates provide important constraints on forward ocean models, which exhibit both broad similarities and regional errors relative to the observational fields. A compilation of inventories of Cant gives us a "best" estimate of the global ocean inventory of anthropogenic carbon in 2010 of 155 ± 31 PgC (±20% uncertainty). This estimate includes a broad range of values, suggesting that a combination of approaches is necessary in order to achieve a robust quantification of the ocean sink of anthropogenic CO2.

scholarly journals Modeling ocean circulation and biogeochemical variability in the Gulf of Mexico

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 7219-7234 ◽  
Author(s):  
Z. Xue ◽  
R. He ◽  
K. Fennel ◽  
W.-J. Cai ◽  
S. Lohrenz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Function Analysis ◽  
Inorganic Nitrogen ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Deep Ocean ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Open Boundary ◽  
Biogeochemical Model ◽  
Open Boundary Conditions

Abstract. A three-dimensional coupled physical-biogeochemical model is applied to simulate and examine temporal and spatial variability of circulation and biogeochemical cycling in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). The model is driven by realistic atmospheric forcing, open boundary conditions from a data assimilative global ocean circulation model, and observed freshwater and terrestrial nitrogen input from major rivers. A 7 yr model hindcast (2004–2010) was performed, and validated against satellite observed sea surface height, surface chlorophyll, and in situ observations including coastal sea level, ocean temperature, salinity, and dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) concentration. The model hindcast revealed clear seasonality in DIN, phytoplankton and zooplankton distributions in the GoM. An empirical orthogonal function analysis indicated a phase-locked pattern among DIN, phytoplankton and zooplankton concentrations. The GoM shelf nitrogen budget was also quantified, revealing that on an annual basis the DIN input is largely balanced by the removal through denitrification (an equivalent of ~ 80% of DIN input) and offshore exports to the deep ocean (an equivalent of ~ 17% of DIN input).

scholarly journals Modeling ocean circulation and biogeochemical variability in the Gulf of Mexico

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 7785-7830 ◽  
Author(s):  
Z. Xue ◽  
R. He ◽  
K. Fennel ◽  
W.-J. Cai ◽  
S. Lohrenz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Function Analysis ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Deep Ocean ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Open Boundary ◽  
Biogeochemical Model ◽  
Open Boundary Conditions ◽  
Nutrient Input

Abstract. A three-dimensional coupled physical-biogeochemical model is applied to simulate and examine temporal and spatial variability of circulation and biogeochemical cycling in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). The model is driven by realistic atmospheric forcing, open boundary conditions from a data assimilative global ocean circulation model, and observed freshwater and terrestrial nutrient input from major rivers. A 7 yr model hindcast (2004–2010) was performed, and validated against satellite observed sea surface height, surface chlorophyll, and in-situ observations including coastal sea-level, ocean temperature, salinity, and nutrient concentration. The model hindcast revealed clear seasonality in nutrient, phytoplankton and zooplankton distributions in the GoM. An Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis indicated a phase-locked pattern among nutrient, phytoplankton and zooplankton concentrations. The GoM shelf nutrient budget was also quantified, revealing that on an annual basis ~80% of nutrient input was denitrified on the shelf and ~17% was exported to the deep ocean.

scholarly journals Model constraints on the anthropogenic carbon budget of the Arctic Ocean

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jens Terhaar ◽  
James C. Orr ◽  
Marion Gehlen ◽  
Christian Ethé ◽  
Laurent Bopp
Keyword(s):  
Ocean Acidification ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Lateral Transport ◽  
Coarse Resolution ◽  
The Arctic Ocean ◽  
Anthropogenic Carbon

Abstract. The Arctic Ocean is projected to experience not only amplified climate change but also amplified ocean acidification. Modeling future acidification depends on our ability to simulate baseline conditions and changes over the industrial era. Such centennial-scale changes require a global model to account for exchange between the Arctic and surrounding regions. Yet the coarse resolution of typical global models may poorly resolve that exchange as well as critical features of Arctic Ocean circulation. Here we assess how simulations of Arctic Ocean storage of anthropogenic carbon (Cant), the main driver of open- ocean acidification, differ when moving from coarse to eddy admitting resolution in a global ocean circulation-biogeochemistry model (NEMO-PISCES). The Arctic's regional storage of Cant is enhanced as model resolution increases. While the coarse- resolution model configuration ORCA2 (2°) stores 2.0 Pg C in the Arctic Ocean between 1765 and 2005, the eddy-admitting versions ORCA05 and ORCA025 (1/2° and 1/4°) store 2.4 and 2.6 Pg C. That result from ORCA025 falls within the uncertainty range from a previous data-based Cant storage estimate (2.5 to 3.3 Pg C). Yet those limits may each need to be reduced by about 10 % because data-based Cant concentrations in deep waters remain at ∼ 6 μmol kg−1, while they should be almost negligible by analogy to the near-zero observed CFC-12 concentrations from which they are calculated. Across the three resolutions, there was roughly three times as much anthropogenic carbon that entered the Arctic Ocean through lateral transport than via the flux of CO2 across the air-sea interface. Wider comparison to nine earth system models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) reveals much larger diversity of stored anthropogenic carbon and lateral transport. Only the CMIP5 models with higher lateral transport obtain Cant inventories that are close to the data-based estimates. Increasing resolution also enhances acidification, e.g., with greater shoaling of the Arctic's average depth of the aragonite saturation horizon during 1960–2012, from 50 m in ORCA2 to 210 m in ORCA025. To assess the potential to further refine modeled estimates of the Arctic Ocean's Cant storage and acidification, sensitivity tests that adjust model parameters are needed given that century-scale global ocean biogeochemical simulations still cannot be run routinely at high resolution.

scholarly journals Coastal-ocean uptake of anthropogenic carbon

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothée Bourgeois ◽  
James C. Orr ◽  
Laure Resplandy ◽  
Christian Ethé ◽  
Marion Gehlen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Coastal Ocean ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Biogeochemical Model ◽  
Temporal Data ◽  
Anthropogenic Carbon ◽  
Ocean Biogeochemical Model ◽  
Data Coverage ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Global Inventory ◽  
Offshore Transport

Abstract. Anthropogenic changes in atmosphere-ocean and atmosphere-land CO2 fluxes have been quantified extensively, but few studies have addressed the connection between land and ocean. In this transition zone, the coastal ocean, spatial and temporal data coverage is inadequate to assess its global budget. Thus we use a global ocean biogeochemical model to assess the coastal ocean's global inventory of anthropogenic CO2 and its spatial variability. We used an intermediate resolution, eddying version of the NEMO-PISCES model (ORCA05), varying from 20 to 50 km horizontally, i.e., coarse enough to allow multiple century-scale simulations but finer than coarse resolution models (~ 200 km), to begin to better resolve coastal bathymetry. Simulated results indicated that the global ocean absorbed 2.3 Pg C yr−1 of anthropogenic carbon during 1993–2012, consistent with previous estimates. Yet only 4.5 % of that (0.10 Pg C yr−1) is absorbed by the global coastal ocean, i.e., less than its 7.5 % proportion of the global ocean surface area. Coastal uptake is weakened due to a bottleneck in offshore transport, which is inadequate to reduce the mean anthropogenic carbon concentration of coastal waters to the mean level found in the open-ocean mixed layer.

scholarly journals A near-global eddy-resolving OGCM for climate studies

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
X. Zhang ◽  
P. R. Oke ◽  
M. Feng ◽  
M. A. Chamberlain ◽  
J. A. Church ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Surface Heat ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Biogeochemical Model ◽  
Relaxation Rates ◽  
Ocean Forecasting ◽  
Climate Studies

Abstract. Eddy-resolving global ocean models are highly desired for spatially-improved climate studies, but this is challenging because they require careful configuration and substantial computational resources. Model drift, partially related to insufficient model spin-up, imperfect model physics or bias in surface forcing, can be problematic, leading to contamination of climate change signals. In this study, we adapt a near-global eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model, originally developed for short-range ocean forecasting, for climate studies. The Ocean Forecasting Australia Model version 3 (OFAM3) is spun up for 20 years, with repeated year 1979 forcing and adaptive relaxation (Newtonian nudging) of temperature and salinity in the deep ocean to an observation-based climatology. In addition, surface heat fluxes from the JRA-55 atmospheric reanalysis are adjusted during the spin-up experiment to minimise excessive net heat uptake in the ocean. In the historical experiment, spanning 1979–2014, a non-adaptive relaxation is applied by repeating the same relaxation rates derived from the last five years of the spin-up experiment, and the surface heat flux adjustment diagnosed during the spinup experiment is also maintained. We demonstrate that the historical experiment driven by the JRA-55 reanalysis does not have significant drifts (e.g., as shown by simulated global ocean heat content), and also provides an eddy-resolving simulation of the global ocean circulation over the period 1979–2014. Decadal changes, such as the strengthening of the subtropical gyre circulation, are also reasonably simulated. A biogeochemical model is coupled with OFAM3 to produce patterns of primary productivity and carbon fluxes that are consistent with observations. Experiences gained from our numerical experiments will be helpful to other modelling groups who are interested in running global eddy-resolving OGCMs for climate studies.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document