scholarly journals Investigating the consistency between proxy-based reconstructions and climate models using data assimilation: a mid-Holocene case study

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 2741-2757 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Mairesse ◽  
H. Goosse ◽  
P. Mathiot ◽  
H. Wanner ◽  
S. Dubinkina
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Standard Test ◽  
Reconstructed Signal ◽  
Paleoclimate Records ◽  
Using Data

Abstract. The mid-Holocene (6 kyr BP; thousand years before present) is a key period to study the consistency between model results and proxy-based reconstruction data as it corresponds to a standard test for models and a reasonable number of proxy-based records is available. Taking advantage of this relatively large amount of information, we have compared a compilation of 50 air and sea surface temperature reconstructions with the results of three simulations performed with general circulation models and one carried out with LOVECLIM, a model of intermediate complexity. The conclusions derived from this analysis confirm that models and data agree on the large-scale spatial pattern but the models underestimate the magnitude of some observed changes and that large discrepancies are observed at the local scale. To further investigate the origin of those inconsistencies, we have constrained LOVECLIM to follow the signal recorded by the proxies selected in the compilation using a data-assimilation method based on a particle filter. In one simulation, all the 50 proxy-based records are used while in the other two only the continental or oceanic proxy-based records constrain the model results. As expected, data assimilation leads to improving the consistency between model results and the reconstructions. In particular, this is achieved in a robust way in all the experiments through a strengthening of the westerlies at midlatitude that warms up northern Europe. Furthermore, the comparison of the LOVECLIM simulations with and without data assimilation has also objectively identified 16 proxy-based paleoclimate records whose reconstructed signal is either incompatible with the signal recorded by some other proxy-based records or with model physics.

scholarly journals Investigating the consistency between proxies and between proxies and models using data assimilation: a mid-Holocene case study

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 3953-3991 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Mairesse ◽  
H. Goosse ◽  
P. Mathiot ◽  
H. Wanner ◽  
S. Dubinkina
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Standard Test ◽  
Proxy Records ◽  
Reconstructed Signal ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The One

Abstract. The mid-Holocene (6 thousand years before present) is a key period to study the consistency between model results and proxy data as it corresponds to a standard test for models and a reasonable number of proxy records are available. Taking advantage of this relatively large amount of information, we have first compared a compilation of 50 air and sea surface temperature reconstructions with the results of three simulations performed with general circulation models and one carried out with LOVECLIM, a model of intermediate complexity. The conclusions derived from this analysis confirm that models and data agree on the large-scale spatial pattern but underestimate the magnitude of some observed changes and that large discrepancies are observed at the local scale. To further investigate the origin of those inconsistencies, we have constrained LOVECLIM to follow the signal recorded by the proxies selected in the compilation using a data assimilation method based on a particle filter. In one simulation, all the 50 proxies are used while in the other two, only the continental or oceanic proxies constrains the model results. This assimilation improves the consistency between model results and the reconstructions. In particular, this is achieved in a robust way in all the experiments through a strengthening of the westerlies at mid-latitude that warms up the Northern Europe. Furthermore, the comparison of the LOVECLIM simulations with and without data assimilation has also objectively identified 16 proxies whose reconstructed signal is either incompatible with the one recorded by some other proxies or with model physics.

scholarly journals Using data assimilation to study extratropical Northern Hemisphere climate over the last millennium

2009 ◽  
Vol 5 (5) ◽  
pp. 2115-2156 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Widmann ◽  
H. Goosse ◽  
G. van der Schrier ◽  
R. Schnur ◽  
J. Barkmeijer
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
Proxy Data ◽  
Using Data

Abstract. Climate proxy data provide noisy, and spatially incomplete information on some aspects of past climate states, whereas palaeosimulations with climate models provide global, multi-variable states, which may however differ from the true states due to unpredictable internal variability not related to climate forcings, as well as due to model deficiencies. Using data assimilation for combining the empirical information from proxy data with the physical understanding of the climate system represented by the equations in a climate model is in principle a promising way to obtain better estimates for the climate of the past. Data assimilation has been used for a long time in weather forecasting and atmospheric analyses to control the states in atmospheric General Circulation Models such that they are in agreement with observation from surface, upper air, and satellite measurements. Here we discuss the similarities and the differences between the data assimilation problem in palaeoclimatology and in weather forecasting, and present and conceptually compare three data assimilation methods that have been developed in recent years for applications in palaeoclimatology. All three methods (selection of ensemble members, Forcing Singular Vectors, and Pattern Nudging) are illustrated by examples that are related to climate variability over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere during the last millennium. In particular it is shown that all three methods suggest that the cold period over Scandinavia during 1790–1820 is linked to anomalous northerly or easterly atmospheric flow, which in turn is related to a pressure anomaly that resembles a negative state of the Northern Annular Mode.

scholarly journals Using data assimilation to study extratropical Northern Hemisphere climate over the last millennium

2010 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 627-644 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Widmann ◽  
H. Goosse ◽  
G. van der Schrier ◽  
R. Schnur ◽  
J. Barkmeijer
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
Proxy Data ◽  
Using Data

Abstract. Climate proxy data provide noisy, and spatially incomplete information on some aspects of past climate states, whereas palaeosimulations with climate models provide global, multi-variable states, which may however differ from the true states due to unpredictable internal variability not related to climate forcings, as well as due to model deficiencies. Using data assimilation for combining the empirical information from proxy data with the physical understanding of the climate system represented by the equations in a climate model is in principle a promising way to obtain better estimates for the climate of the past. Data assimilation has been used for a long time in weather forecasting and atmospheric analyses to control the states in atmospheric General Circulation Models such that they are in agreement with observation from surface, upper air, and satellite measurements. Here we discuss the similarities and the differences between the data assimilation problem in palaeoclimatology and in weather forecasting, and present and conceptually compare three data assimilation methods that have been developed in recent years for applications in palaeoclimatology. All three methods (selection of ensemble members, Forcing Singular Vectors, and Pattern Nudging) are illustrated by examples that are related to climate variability over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere during the last millennium. In particular it is shown that all three methods suggest that the cold period over Scandinavia during 1790–1820 is linked to anomalous northerly or easterly atmospheric flow, which in turn is related to a pressure anomaly that resembles a negative state of the Northern Annular Mode.

scholarly journals Cloud and Precipitation Parameterizations in Modeling and Variational Data Assimilation: A Review

2007 ◽  
Vol 64 (11) ◽  
pp. 3766-3784 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philippe Lopez
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Variational Data Assimilation ◽  
Current Status ◽  
General Question ◽  
Observation Error ◽  
Moist Processes

Abstract This paper first reviews the current status, issues, and limitations of the parameterizations of atmospheric large-scale and convective moist processes that are used in numerical weather prediction and climate general circulation models. Both large-scale (resolved) and convective (subgrid scale) moist processes are dealt with. Then, the general question of the inclusion of diabatic processes in variational data assimilation systems is addressed. The focus is put on linearity and resolution issues, the specification of model and observation error statistics, the formulation of the control vector, and the problems specific to the assimilation of observations directly affected by clouds and precipitation.

Polar meteorology: a review of some recent research

Polar Record ◽  
1974 ◽  
Vol 17 (108) ◽  
pp. 277-294 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gunter Weller
Keyword(s):  
Heat Source ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Cloud Formation ◽  
Driving Mechanism ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
International Geophysical Year ◽  
Polar Meteorology

The general large-scale circulation of the global atmosphere has its basic driving mechanism in the equator-poleward temperature gradients in both hemispheres. It has become increasingly obvious over the last few decades that to understand and predict the behaviour of the atmosphere at any point, it is essential to understand the behaviour of the total global fluid system. The Global Atmospheric Research Project (GARP) is an outcome of this recognition. Studies of the heat sinks (the polar regions) are therefore just as important as studies of the heat source (the equatorial regions) to understand the meteorology of the planet. Interest in polar meteorology has undergone many cyclic fluctuations, peaking during the various international polar years and, more recently, during the International Geophysical Year, 1957–58. At the present, the focus of GARP's first objective (improved extended weather forecasts) is on the tropical heat source, where convection and cloud formation and dissipation are still relatively little understood processes. However, the second GARP objective (better understanding of the physical basis of climate) requires more attention to be devoted to the cryosphere, its long-term interaction with oceans and atmosphere, and its role as an indicator of climatic change. The idea of a polar experiment (POLEX) was initially introduced by Treshnikov and others (1968) and by Borisenkov and Treshnikov (1971). A summary of the early history of POLEX was recently given by Weller and Bierly (1973). The two closely related objectives of POLEX that most directly pertain to GARP may be restated in their simplest terms as (1) a better understanding of energy transfer processes and the heat budgets of the polar regions for the purpose of parameterizing them properly in general circulation models and climate models, and (2) provision of adequate data from the polar regions during the First GARP Global Experiment (FGGE) in 1978.

scholarly journals SimCloud version 1.0: a simple diagnostic cloud scheme for idealized climate models

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 2801-2826
Author(s):  
Qun Liu ◽  
Matthew Collins ◽  
Penelope Maher ◽  
Stephen I. Thomson ◽  
Geoffrey K. Vallis
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Cloud Fraction ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
Subtropical Oceans

Abstract. A simple diagnostic cloud scheme (SimCloud) for general circulation models (GCMs), which has a modest level of complexity and is transparent in describing its dependence on tunable parameters, is proposed in this study. The large-scale clouds, which form the core of the scheme, are diagnosed from relative humidity. In addition, the marine low stratus clouds, typically found off the west coast of continents over subtropical oceans, are determined largely as a function of inversion strength. A “freeze-dry” adjustment based on a simple function of specific humidity is also available to reduce an excessive cloud bias in polar regions. Other cloud properties, such as the effective radius of cloud droplet and cloud liquid water content, are specified as simple functions of temperature. All of these features are user-configurable. The cloud scheme is implemented in Isca, a modeling framework designed to enable the construction of GCMs at varying levels of complexity, but could readily be adapted to other GCMs. Simulations using the scheme with realistic continents generally capture the observed structure of cloud fraction and cloud radiative effect (CRE), as well as its seasonal variation. Specifically, the explicit low-cloud scheme improves the simulation of shortwave CREs over the eastern subtropical oceans by increasing the cloud fraction and cloud water path. The freeze-dry adjustment alleviates the longwave CRE biases in polar regions, especially in winter. However, the longwave CRE in tropical regions and shortwave CRE over the extratropics are both still too strong compared to observations. Nevertheless, this simple cloud scheme provides a suitable basis for examining the impacts of clouds on climate in idealized modeling frameworks.

scholarly journals Climatology and Forcing of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in the MAECHAM5 Model

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (16) ◽  
pp. 3882-3901 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. A. Giorgetta ◽  
E. Manzini ◽  
E. Roeckner ◽  
M. Esch ◽  
L. Bengtsson
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Wave ◽  
Zonal Wind ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Middle Atmosphere ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Wave Drag ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Biennial Oscillation

Abstract The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the equatorial zonal wind is an outstanding phenomenon of the atmosphere. The QBO is driven by a broad spectrum of waves excited in the tropical troposphere and modulates transport and mixing of chemical compounds in the whole middle atmosphere. Therefore, the simulation of the QBO in general circulation models and chemistry climate models is an important issue. Here, aspects of the climatology and forcing of a spontaneously occurring QBO in a middle-atmosphere model are evaluated, and its influence on the climate and variability of the tropical middle atmosphere is investigated. Westerly and easterly phases are considered separately, and 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data are used as a reference where appropriate. It is found that the simulated QBO is realistic in many details. Resolved large-scale waves are particularly important for the westerly phase, while parameterized gravity wave drag is more important for the easterly phase. Advective zonal wind tendencies are important for asymmetries between westerly and easterly phases, as found for the suppression of the easterly phase downward propagation. The simulation of the QBO improves the tropical upwelling and the atmospheric tape recorder compared to a model without a QBO. The semiannual oscillation is simulated realistically only if the QBO is represented. In sensitivity tests, it is found that the simulated QBO is strongly sensitive to changes in the gravity wave sources. The sensitivity to the tested range of horizontal resolutions is small. The stratospheric vertical resolution must be better than 1 km to simulate a realistic QBO.

scholarly journals A data-driven multi-cloud model for stochastic parametrization of deep convection

2013 ◽  
Vol 371 (1991) ◽  
pp. 20120374 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Dorrestijn ◽  
D. T. Crommelin ◽  
J. A. Biello ◽  
S. J. Böing
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chains ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Cloud Model ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Persistent Problem ◽  
Spatial Coupling ◽  
Using Data

Stochastic subgrid models have been proposed to capture the missing variability and correct systematic medium-term errors in general circulation models. In particular, the poor representation of subgrid-scale deep convection is a persistent problem that stochastic parametrizations are attempting to correct. In this paper, we construct such a subgrid model using data derived from large-eddy simulations (LESs) of deep convection. We use a data-driven stochastic parametrization methodology to construct a stochastic model describing a finite number of cloud states. Our model emulates, in a computationally inexpensive manner, the deep convection-resolving LES. Transitions between the cloud states are modelled with Markov chains. By conditioning the Markov chains on large-scale variables, we obtain a conditional Markov chain, which reproduces the time evolution of the cloud fractions. Furthermore, we show that the variability and spatial distribution of cloud types produced by the Markov chains become more faithful to the LES data when local spatial coupling is introduced in the subgrid Markov chains. Such spatially coupled Markov chains are equivalent to stochastic cellular automata.

scholarly journals SimCloud version 1.0: a simple diagnostic cloud scheme for idealized climate models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qun Liu ◽  
Matthew Collins ◽  
Penelope Maher ◽  
Stephen I. Thomson ◽  
Geoffrey K. Vallis
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Cloud Fraction ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
Subtropical Oceans

Abstract. SimCloud, a simple diagnostic cloud scheme for general circulation models (GCMs) is proposed in this study. The large-scale clouds, which form the core of the scheme, are diagnosed from relative humidity. In addition, marine low stratus clouds, typically found off the west coast of continents over subtropical oceans, are determined largely as a function of inversion strength. A freeze-dry adjustment based on a simple function of relative humidity may also used to reduce an excessive clouds bias in polar regions. Other cloud properties, such as the effective radius of cloud droplet and cloud liquid water content, are specified as simple functions of temperature. All of these features are user-configurable. The cloud scheme is implemented in Isca, a modeling framework designed to enable the construction of GCMs at varying levels of complexity, but could readily be adapted to other GCMs. Simulations using the scheme with realistic continents generally capture the observed structure of cloud fraction and cloud radiative effect (CRE), as well as its seasonal variation. Specifically, the explicit low cloud scheme improves the simulation of shortwave CREs over the eastern subtropical oceans by increasing the cloud fraction and cloud water path over there. The freeze-dry adjustment alleviates the longwave CRE biases in polar regions especially in winter. However, the longwave CRE in tropical regions and shortwave CRE over extratropics are still too strong compared to observations. Nevertheless, this simple cloud scheme provides a suitable basis for examining the impacts of clouds on climate in idealized modeling frameworks.

scholarly journals Water resources of the Desna river basin under future climate

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Osypov Valeriy ◽  
Speka Oleh ◽  
Chyhareva Anastasiia ◽  
Osadcha Nataliia ◽  
Krakovska Svitlana ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Moderate Increase ◽  
Water Balance Components

Abstract Climate change impact on water resources has been observing in Ukraine since the end of the 20th century. For now, only large-scale climate impact studies cover Ukraine territory, having low credibility for a specific catchment. This study aims to calculate future changes in river discharge, water flow components, and soil water within the Desna basin and evaluate vulnerability trends on this basis. The framework assembles the process-based SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model and eight high-resolution regional climate models (RCMs) driven by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. The climate models are provided by the Euro-CORDEX initiative and based on three RCMs (RCA4, HIRHAM5, and RACMO22E) forced by five general circulation models (CNRM-CM5, EC-EARTH, IPSL-CM5A-MR, HadGEM2-ES, and MPI-ESM-LR). The results preferably show a moderate increase in the annual discharge till the end of the 21st century. The intra-annual changes of water balance components negatively affect the vegetation period because of higher dryness and temperature stress but reduce flood risk, diffuse pollution, and water erosion in the far future. In the river basin management plan, the highest attention should be paid to adaptive strategies in agriculture because of possible water deficit in the vegetation season under future climate scenarios.

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