Interne Modellvariabilität von Ensemblesimulationen des gekoppelten Wellen- und Atmosphärenmodells GCOAST

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne Wiese ◽  
Joanna Staneva ◽  
Ha Thi Minh Ho-Hagemann ◽  
Sebastian Grayek ◽  
Wolfgang Koch ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Sea ◽  
Internal Model ◽  
Wind Wave ◽  
Lower Atmosphere ◽  
Atmospheric Models ◽  
Ensemble Simulations ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Sea ◽  
Model Variability ◽  
The Impact

<p>Ziel dieser Studie (Wiese et al., 2020) ist, die Signifikanz des Einflusses des Wellenmodells auf das regionale Atmosphärenmodell und die interne Modellvariabilität sowohl des Atmosphärenmodells, als auch des gekoppelten Systems bestehend aus Wellen- und Atmosphärenmodell zu bestimmen. In einer vorhergehenden Studie wurde gezeigt, dass die Rauigkeit, die im Wellenmodell berechnet wird, größer ist, als die Rauigkeit, die im Atmosphärenmodell approximiert wird, was zu Unterschieden im Atmosphärenmodell führt (Wiese et al. 2019). Hier soll nun untersucht werden, ob diese Unterschiede im Atmosphärenmodell signifikant sind.  Dazu werden Ensemblesimulation mit einem Referenz Setup (das Atmosphärenmodell sendet den Wind an das Wellenmodell) und dem gekoppelten Setup (zusätzlich zum Windaustausch, sendet das Wellenmodell die Rauigkeitslänge über dem Meer zurück an das Atmosphärenmodell) durchgeführt. Bei der Analyse der internen Modellvariabilität zwischen beiden Ensembles zeigt sich, dass die interne Modellvariabilität im gekoppelten Ensemble gegenüber dem Referenzensemble reduziert ist. Dieser Effekt tritt während Extremereignissen am stärksten auf, ist aber auch bei einer generellen Analyse der internen Modellvariabilität über den gesamten Zeitraum sichtbar. Außerdem können die Effekte der Kopplung von der internen Modellvariabilität unterschieden werden, da die Effekte der Kopplung größer sind, als die interne Modellvariabilität. Diese Studie zeigt daher das Potential sowohl in operationellen Systemen als auch Systemen für Klimastudien die Unsicherheit zu reduzieren, wenn das Wellenmodell mit dem Atmosphärenmodell gekoppelt wird. Hinzu kommt, dass die Effekte der Kopplung klar von der internen Modellvariabilität unterschieden werden können, wodurch außerdem eine verbesserte Übereinstimmung des gekoppelten Systems gegenüber dem Referenzensemble mit Beobachtungsdaten erzielt werden kann. In einem nächsten Schritt soll nun zusätzlich der Ozean gekoppelt und die Auswirkungen auf das gesamte System untersucht werden.</p> <p> </p> <p>Literatur:</p> <p>Wiese A, Stanev E, Koch W, Behrens A, Geyer B and Staneva J (2019) The Impact of the Two-Way Coupling between Wind Wave and Atmospheric Models on the Lower Atmosphere over the North Sea. Atmosphere. 10(7):386. doi: 10.3390/atmos10070386</p> <p>Wiese A, Staneva J, Ho-Hagemann HTM, Grayek S, Koch W and Schrum C (2020) Internal Model Variability of Ensemble Simulations With a Regional Coupled Wave-Atmosphere Model GCOAST. Front. Mar. Sci. 7:596843. doi: 10.3389/fmars.2020.596843</p>

scholarly journals The Impact of the Two-Way Coupling between Wind Wave and Atmospheric Models on the Lower Atmosphere over the North Sea

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 386 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne Wiese ◽  
Emil Stanev ◽  
Wolfgang Koch ◽  
Arno Behrens ◽  
Beate Geyer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Sea ◽  
Wind Wave ◽  
Wave Model ◽  
Lower Atmosphere ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Coupled Simulation ◽  
The North ◽  
Induced Drag ◽  
The North Sea ◽  
Wave Induced

The effects of coupling between the atmospheric model of the Consortium for Small-Scale Modelling-Climate Limited-area Modelling (CCLM) and the wind wave model (WAM) on the lower atmosphere within the North Sea area are studied. Due to the two-way coupling between the models, the influences of wind waves and the atmosphere on each other can be determined. This two-way coupling between these models is enabled through the introduction of wave-induced drag into CCLM and updated winds into WAM. As a result of wave-induced drag, different atmospheric parameters are either directly or indirectly influenced by the wave conditions. The largest differences between the coupled and reference model simulation are found during storm events as well as in areas of steep gradients in the mean sea level pressure, wind speed or temperature. In the two-way coupled simulation, the position and strength of these gradients vary, compared to the reference simulation, leading to differences that spread throughout the entire planetary boundary layer and outside the coupled model area, thereby influencing the atmosphere over land and ocean, although not coupled to the wave model. Ultimately, the results of both model simulations are assessed against in situ and satellite measurements, with a better general performance of the two-way coupled simulation with respect to the observations.

Ten Demi-Culverins for Aldeburgh: Whitehall, the Dunkirkers, and a Suffolk Fishing Community, 1625–1630

2019 ◽  
Vol 58 (2) ◽  
pp. 315-337 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Cogswell
Keyword(s):  
North Sea ◽  
East Coast ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Fishing Community ◽  
Close Attention ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Sea ◽  
The Impact

AbstractHistorians have not paid close attention to the activities of freebooters operating out of Dunkirk in the late 1620s. This essay corrects that omission by first studying the threat from Dunkirk to England's east coast and then addressing how the central government, counties, and coastal towns responded. A surprisingly rich vein of manuscript material from Great Yarmouth and particularly from the Suffolk fishing community of Aldeburgh informs this case study of the impact of this conflict around the North Sea.

scholarly journals The impact of sedimentary alkalinity release on the water column CO<sub>2</sub> system in the North Sea

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 841-863 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Brenner ◽  
U. Braeckman ◽  
M. Le Guitton ◽  
F. J. R. Meysman
Keyword(s):  
Coastal Zone ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Dissolved Inorganic Carbon ◽  
Co2 Uptake ◽  
Overlying Water ◽  
Southern North Sea ◽  
The North ◽  
Alkalinity Generation ◽  
The North Sea ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. It has been previously proposed that alkalinity release from sediments can play an important role in the carbonate dynamics on continental shelves, lowering the pCO2 of seawater and hence increasing the CO2 uptake from the atmosphere. To test this hypothesis, sedimentary alkalinity generation was quantified within cohesive and permeable sediments across the North Sea during two cruises in September 2011 (basin-wide) and June 2012 (Dutch coastal zone). Benthic fluxes of oxygen (O2), alkalinity (AT) and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) were determined using shipboard closed sediment incubations. Our results show that sediments can form an important source of alkalinity for the overlying water, particularly in the shallow southern North Sea, where high AT and DIC fluxes were recorded in near-shore sediments of the Belgian, Dutch and German coastal zone. In contrast, fluxes of AT and DIC are substantially lower in the deeper, seasonally stratified, northern part of the North Sea. Based on the data collected, we performed a model analysis to constrain the main pathways of alkalinity generation in the sediment, and to quantify how sedimentary alkalinity drives atmospheric CO2 uptake in the southern North Sea. Overall, our results show that sedimentary alkalinity generation should be regarded as a key component in the CO2 dynamics of shallow coastal systems.

Detecting drought conditions related to vegetation at west continental Europe based on variations from the North and Caspian Seas

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bolin Xu ◽  
Qing He ◽  
Kwok Pan Chun ◽  
Julian Klaus ◽  
Rémy Schoppach ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Sea ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Positive Phase ◽  
Vegetation Patterns ◽  
Limited Region ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Sea ◽  
The Impact

&lt;p&gt;Teleconnections relate regional pressure patterns to local climate anomalies, influencing the variation of vegetation patterns. Over west continental Europe, droughts have been widely investigated with persistent low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns (e.g. the North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO) with the centers over the Atlantic based on the 500mb height anomalies of the Northern Hemisphere. However, the effects of teleconnection patterns with the centers of active variability over the North and Caspian Seas is largely unexplored for droughts related to vegetation patterns. In this study, we explored the impact of the North Sea-Caspian Pattern (NCP) on regional ecohydrologic conditions in the Greater Region of Luxembourg in Western Europe. Using a Principal Component Analysis (PCA), we first decomposed the annual Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from the Global Inventory Monitoring and Modeling System (GIMMS) between 1981 and 2015. In the first PCA component, a distinctive greening trend of NDVI is detected since the late 1980s. However, the corresponding station observations and the ERA5 reanalysis data show that the region in west continental Europe became increasingly drier based on the difference between precipitation and evaporation. We explain the above paradoxical greening but drying patterns by the mechanism of NCP over the region. During the positive phase of NCP, the high pressure over the North Sea weakens circulation over the region and leads to warmer conditions in west continental Europe. These conditions are good for vegetation growth because the region was mainly energy-limited during the observed period at the annual scale based on a Budyko analysis. However, the positive phase of NCP also promotes divergent conditions at the lower troposphere and it reduces moisture flux over the region. In the Budyko space, the persistent positive phase of NCP would lead the energy-limited region to be water-limited. As the positive phase of NCP is expected to be more frequent along with the increasing global temperatures, the region may start to experience increasing water stress on vegetation. These results suggest that unforeseen droughts related to vegetation may be emerging in the region. New drought monitoring and management measures related to vegetation should be developed at west continental Europe, especially during the positive phase of NCP.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Looking beyond stratification: a model-based analysis of the biological drivers of oxygen deficiency in the North Sea

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 2511-2535 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabian Große ◽  
Naomi Greenwood ◽  
Markus Kreus ◽  
Hermann-Josef Lenhart ◽  
Detlev Machoczek ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Sea ◽  
Oxygen Deficiency ◽  
Low Oxygen ◽  
The North ◽  
Oxygen Conditions ◽  
Southern Central ◽  
The North Sea ◽  
Central North Sea ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Oxygen Dynamics

Abstract. Low oxygen conditions, often referred to as oxygen deficiency, occur regularly in the North Sea, a temperate European shelf sea. Stratification represents a major process regulating the seasonal dynamics of bottom oxygen, yet, lowest oxygen conditions in the North Sea do not occur in the regions of strongest stratification. This suggests that stratification is an important prerequisite for oxygen deficiency, but that the complex interaction between hydrodynamics and the biological processes drives its evolution. In this study we use the ecosystem model HAMSOM-ECOHAM to provide a general characterisation of the different zones of the North Sea with respect to oxygen, and to quantify the impact of the different physical and biological factors driving the oxygen dynamics inside the entire sub-thermocline volume and directly above the bottom. With respect to oxygen dynamics, the North Sea can be subdivided into three different zones: (1) a highly productive, non-stratified coastal zone, (2) a productive, seasonally stratified zone with a small sub-thermocline volume, and (3) a productive, seasonally stratified zone with a large sub-thermocline volume. Type 2 reveals the highest susceptibility to oxygen deficiency due to sufficiently long stratification periods (>  60 days) accompanied by high surface productivity resulting in high biological consumption, and a small sub-thermocline volume implying both a small initial oxygen inventory and a strong influence of the biological consumption on the oxygen concentration. Year-to-year variations in the oxygen conditions are caused by variations in primary production, while spatial differences can be attributed to differences in stratification and water depth. The large sub-thermocline volume dominates the oxygen dynamics in the northern central and northern North Sea and makes this region insusceptible to oxygen deficiency. In the southern North Sea the strong tidal mixing inhibits the development of seasonal stratification which protects this area from the evolution of low oxygen conditions. In contrast, the southern central North Sea is highly susceptible to low oxygen conditions (type 2). We furthermore show that benthic diagenetic processes represent the main oxygen consumers in the bottom layer, consistently accounting for more than 50 % of the overall consumption. Thus, primary production followed by remineralisation of organic matter under stratified conditions constitutes the main driver for the evolution of oxygen deficiency in the southern central North Sea. By providing these valuable insights, we show that ecosystem models can be a useful tool for the interpretation of observations and the estimation of the impact of anthropogenic drivers on the North Sea oxygen conditions.

scholarly journals Different bottom trawl fisheries have a differential impact on the status of the North Sea seafloor habitats

2020 ◽  
Vol 77 (5) ◽  
pp. 1772-1786 ◽  
Author(s):  
A D Rijnsdorp ◽  
J G Hiddink ◽  
P D van Denderen ◽  
N T Hintzen ◽  
O R Eigaard ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Sea ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Demersal Fish ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
The North ◽  
The Status ◽  
Fisheries Conservation ◽  
The North Sea ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Trawl Fisheries

Abstract Fisheries using bottom trawls are the most widespread source of anthropogenic physical disturbance to seafloor habitats. To mitigate such disturbances, the development of fisheries-, conservation-, and ecosystem-based management strategies requires the assessment of the impact of bottom trawling on the state of benthic biota. We explore a quantitative and mechanistic framework to assess trawling impact. Pressure and impact indicators that provide a continuous pressure–response curve are estimated at a spatial resolution of 1 × 1 min latitude and longitude (∼2 km2) using three methods: L1 estimates the proportion of the community with a life span exceeding the time interval between trawling events; L2 estimates the decrease in median longevity in response to trawling; and population dynamic (PD) estimates the decrease in biomass in response to trawling and the recovery time. Although impact scores are correlated, PD has the best performance over a broad range of trawling intensities. Using the framework in a trawling impact assessment of ten métiers in the North Sea shows that muddy habitats are impacted the most and coarse habitats are impacted the least. Otter trawling for crustaceans has the highest impact, followed by otter trawling for demersal fish and beam trawling for flatfish and flyshooting. Beam trawling for brown shrimps, otter trawling for industrial fish, and dredging for molluscs have the lowest impact. Trawling is highly aggregated in core fishing grounds where the status of the seafloor is low but the catch per unit of effort (CPUE) per unit of impact is high, in contrast to peripheral grounds, where CPUE per unit of impact is low.

scholarly journals The significance of coastal bathymetry representation for modelling the tidal response to mean sea level rise in the German Bight

Ocean Science ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Caroline Rasquin ◽  
Rita Seiffert ◽  
Benno Wachler ◽  
Norbert Winkel
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
North Sea ◽  
German Bight ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Tidal Dynamics ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Sea ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Due to climate change an accelerated mean sea level rise is expected. One key question for the development of adaptation measures is how mean sea level rise affects tidal dynamics in shelf seas such as the North Sea. Owing to its low-lying coastal areas, the German Bight (located in the southeast of the North Sea) will be especially affected. Numerical hydrodynamic models help to understand how mean sea level rise changes tidal dynamics. Models cannot adequately represent all processes in overall detail. One limiting factor is the resolution of the model grid. In this study we investigate which role the representation of the coastal bathymetry plays when analysing the response of tidal dynamics to mean sea level rise. Using a shelf model including the whole North Sea and a high-resolution hydrodynamic model of the German Bight we investigate the changes in M2 amplitude due to a mean sea level rise of 0.8 and 10 m. The shelf model and the German Bight Model react in different ways. In the simulations with a mean sea level rise of 0.8 m the M2 amplitude in the shelf model generally increases in the region of the German Bight. In contrast, the M2 amplitude in the German Bight Model increases only in some coastal areas and decreases in the northern part of the German Bight. In the simulations with a mean sea level rise of 10 m the M2 amplitude increases in both models with largely similar spatial patterns. In two case studies we adjust the German Bight Model in order to more closely resemble the shelf model. We find that a different resolution of the bathymetry results in different energy dissipation changes in response to mean sea level rise. Our results show that the resolution of the bathymetry especially in flat intertidal areas plays a crucial role for modelling the impact of mean sea level rise.

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