Understanding cyclone variability in the Barents Sea

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erica Madonna ◽  
Gabriel Hes ◽  
Clio Michel ◽  
Camille Li ◽  
Peter Yu Feng Siew
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
The North ◽  
The Barents Sea ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Cyclone Frequency

<p>Extratropical cyclones are a key player for the global energy budget as they transport a large amount of moisture and heat from mid- to high-latitudes. One of the main corridors for cyclones entering the Arctic from the North Atlantic is the Barents Sea, a region that has experienced the largest decrease in winter sea ice during the past decades. On the one hand, some studies showed that moisture transported by cyclones to the Arctic can lead to drastic temperature increases and sea ice melt. On the other hand, it has been suggested that the location of the sea ice edge can influence the tracks of cyclones. Therefore, it is crucial to understand what controls cyclone tracks through the Barents Sea into the Arctic to explain and potentially predict climate variability at high latitudes.</p><p>To address this question, we track cyclones from 1979 to 2018 in the ERA-Interim data set, characterizing and quantifying them depending on their genesis location and path. The focus is on cyclones entering the Barents Sea from the North Atlantic as they carry the most moisture into the Arctic. Despite a clear declining trend in sea ice in the Barents Sea, our results show neither significant changes in cyclone frequency nor in their tracks. However, we find that the large-scale flow and in particular the presence or absence of blocking in the Barents Sea influence the cyclone frequency in this region, providing a potential mechanism that controls high latitude climate variability.</p>

scholarly journals The link between the Barents Sea and ENSO events simulated by NEMO model

Ocean Science ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 971-982 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. N. Stepanov ◽  
H. Zuo ◽  
K. Haines
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Similar Response ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Ice Volume ◽  
The North ◽  
The Barents Sea ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract. An analysis of observational data in the Barents Sea along a meridian at 33°30' E between 70°30' and 72°30' N has reported a negative correlation between El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and water temperature in the top 200 m: the temperature drops about 0.5 °C during warm ENSO events while during cold ENSO events the top 200 m layer of the Barents Sea is warmer. Results from 1 and 1/4-degree global NEMO models show a similar response for the whole Barents Sea. During the strong warm ENSO event in 1997–1998 an anomalous anticyclonic atmospheric circulation over the Barents Sea enhances heat loses, as well as substantially influencing the Barents Sea inflow from the North Atlantic, via changes in ocean currents. Under normal conditions along the Scandinavian peninsula there is a warm current entering the Barents Sea from the North Atlantic, however after the 1997–1998 event this current is weakened. During 1997–1998 the model annual mean temperature in the Barents Sea is decreased by about 0.8 °C, also resulting in a higher sea ice volume. In contrast during the cold ENSO events in 1999–2000 and 2007–2008, the model shows a lower sea ice volume, and higher annual mean temperatures in the upper layer of the Barents Sea of about 0.7 °C. An analysis of model data shows that the strength of the Atlantic inflow in the Barents Sea is the main cause of heat content variability, and is forced by changing pressure and winds in the North Atlantic. However, surface heat-exchange with the atmosphere provides the means by which the Barents sea heat budget relaxes to normal in the subsequent year after the ENSO events.

scholarly journals Predictability of the Barents Sea Ice in Early Winter: Remote Effects of Oceanic and Atmospheric Thermal Conditions from the North Atlantic

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (23) ◽  
pp. 8884-8901 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takuya Nakanowatari ◽  
Kazutoshi Sato ◽  
Jun Inoue
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Temperature Anomaly ◽  
Early Winter ◽  
Subsurface Temperature ◽  
The North ◽  
The Barents Sea ◽  
Subsurface Temperature Anomaly ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract Predictability of sea ice concentrations (SICs) in the Barents Sea in early winter (November–December) is studied using canonical correlation analysis with atmospheric and ocean anomalies from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data. It is found that the highest prediction skill for a single-predictor model is obtained from the 13-month lead subsurface temperature at 200-m depth (T200) and the in-phase meridional surface wind (Vsfc). T200 skillfully predicts SIC variability in 35% of the Barents Sea, mainly in the eastern side. The T200 for negative sea ice anomalies exhibits warm anomalies in the subsurface ocean temperature downstream of the Norwegian Atlantic Slope Current (NwASC) on a decadal time scale. The diagnostic analysis of NCEP CFSR data suggests that the subsurface temperature anomaly stored below the thermocline during summer reemerges in late autumn by atmospheric cooling and affects the sea ice. The subsurface temperature anomaly of the NwASC is advected from the North Atlantic subpolar gyre over ~3 years. Also, Vsfc skillfully predicts SIC variability in 32% of the Barents Sea, mainly in the western side. The Vsfc for the negative sea ice anomalies exhibits southerly wind anomalies; Vsfc is related to the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns from the subtropical North Atlantic to the Eurasian continent. This study suggests that both atmospheric and oceanic remote effects have a potential impact on the forecasting accuracy of SIC.

scholarly journals Seasonal forecast of sea ice extent in the Barents sea

2019 ◽  
Vol 65 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-14
Author(s):  
N. I. Glok ◽  
G. V. Alekseev ◽  
A. E. Vyazilova
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Annual Variability ◽  
The North ◽  
The Barents Sea ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Main Component ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Earlier, the authors established a close relationship between the temperature of water coming from the North Atlantic and the sea ice extent (SIE) in the Barents Sea, which accounts for up to 75 % of the inter-annual variability of the monthly SIE from January to June. In turn, temperature variations of the incoming Atlantic water are affected from anomalies of sea surface temperature (SST) in the low latitudes of the North Atlantic. These dependences served as the basis for the development of a forecast method. The empirical orthogonal functions decomposition of the SIE set from January to June for 1979–2014 was used. The main component of decomposition reflects 83 % of the inter-annual variability of SIE from January to June. Regression model of forecast is based on the relation of the main component with SST anomalies taking into account the delay. Comparison of prognostic and actual values of the climatic component for each of the 6 months showed the correctness of forecasts with a lead time of 27 to 32 months is 83 %, and for the prediction of the initial values of SIE 79 %. Appealing to the second predictor — SST anomalies in the Norwegian Sea allowed to improve the quality of the forecast of the observed values of SIE. At the same time, the forecast advance time was reduced to 9–14 months.

scholarly journals The link between the Barents Sea and ENSO events reproduced by NEMO model

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 2121-2151
Author(s):  
V. N. Stepanov ◽  
H. Zuo ◽  
K. Haines
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Similar Response ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Ice Volume ◽  
The North ◽  
The Barents Sea ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract. An analysis of observational data in the Barents Sea along a meridian at 33°30´ E between 70°30´ and 72°30´ N has reported a negative correlation between El Niño/La Niña-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and water temperature in the top 200 m: the temperature drops about 0.5 °C during warm ENSO events while during cold ENSO events the top 200 m layer of the Barents Sea is warmer. Results from 1 and 1/4-degree global NEMO models show a similar response for the whole Barents Sea. During the strong warm ENSO event in 1997–1998 an anticyclonic atmospheric circulation is settled over the Barents Sea instead of a usual cyclonic circulation. This change enhances heat loses in the Barents Sea, as well as substantially influencing the Barents Sea inflow from the North Atlantic, via changes in ocean currents. Under normal conditions along the Scandinavian peninsula there is a warm current entering the Barents sea from the North Atlantic, however after the 1997–1998 event this current is weakened. During 1997–1998 the model annual mean temperature in the Barents Sea is decreased by about 0.8 °C, also resulting in a higher sea ice volume. In contrast during the cold ENSO events in 1999–2000 and 2007–2008 the model shows a lower sea ice volume, and higher annual mean temperatures in the upper layer of the Barents Sea of about 0.7 °C. An analysis of model data shows that the Barents Sea inflow is the main source for the variability of Barents Sea heat content, and is forced by changing pressure and winds in the North Atlantic. However, surface heat-exchange with atmosphere can also play a dominant role in the Barents Sea annual heat balance, especially for the subsequent year after ENSO events.

The North Atlantic Ocean as a Modulator of Vegetation Greening/Browning in the Northern High Latitudes?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonard F. Borchert ◽  
Alexander J. Winkler
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Dominant Mode ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Internal Climate Variability ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

<p>Vegetation in the northern high latitudes shows a characteristic pattern of persistent changes as documented by multi-decadal satellite observations. The prevailing explanation that these mainly increasing trends (greening) are a consequence of external CO<sub>2</sub> forcing, i.e., due to the ubiquitous effect of CO2-induced fertilization and/or warming of temperature-limited ecosystems, however does not explain why some areas also show decreasing trends of vegetation cover (browning). We propose here to consider the dominant mode of multi-decadal internal climate variability in the north Atlantic region, the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), as the missing link in the explanation of greening and browning trend patterns in the northern high latitudes. Such a link would also imply potential for decadal predictions of ecosystem changes in the northern high latitudes.</p><p>An analysis of observational and reanalysis data sets for the period 1979-2019 shows that locations characterized by greening trends largely coincide with warming summer temperature and increasing precipitation. Wherever either cooling or decreasing precipitation occurs, browning trends are observed over this period. These precipitation and temperature patterns are significantly correlated with a North Atlantic sea surface temperature index that represents the AMV signal, indicating its role in modulating greening/browning trend patterns in the northern high latitudes.</p><p>Using two large ensembles of coupled Earth system model simulations (100 members of MPI-ESM-LR Grand Ensemble and 32 members of the IPSL-CM6A-LR Large Ensemble), we separate the greening/browning pattern caused by external CO<sub>2</sub> forcing from that caused by internal climate variability associated with the AMV. These sets of model simulations enable a clean separation of the externally forced signal from internal variability. While the greening and browning patterns in the simulations do not agree with observations in terms of magnitude and location, we find consistent internally generated greening/browning patterns in both models caused by changes in temperature and precipitation linked to the AMV signal. These greening/browning trend patterns are of the same magnitude as those caused by the external forcing alone. Our work therefore shows that internally-generated changes of vegetation in the northern lands, driven by AMV, are potentially as large as those caused by external CO<sub>2</sub> forcing. We thus argue that the observed pattern of greening/browning in the northern high latitudes could originate from the combined effect of rising CO<sub>2</sub> as well as the AMV.</p>

scholarly journals Carbon cycling in the Arctic Archipelago: the export of Pacific carbon to the North Atlantic

2009 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 971-994 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. H. Shadwick ◽  
T. Papakyriakou ◽  
A. E. F. Prowe ◽  
D. Leong ◽  
S. A. Moore ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Dissolved Inorganic Carbon ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Co2 Uptake ◽  
The North ◽  
The Arctic Ocean ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract. The Arctic Ocean is expected to be disproportionately sensitive to climatic changes, and is thought to be an area where such changes might be detected. The Arctic hydrological cycle is influenced by: runoff and precipitation, sea ice formation/melting, and the inflow of saline waters from Bering and Fram Straits and the Barents Sea Shelf. Pacific water is recognizable as intermediate salinity water, with high concentrations of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), flowing from the Arctic Ocean to the North Atlantic via the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. We present DIC data from an east-west section through the Archipelago, as part of the Canadian International Polar Year initiatives. The fractions of Pacific and Arctic Ocean waters leaving the Archipelago and entering Baffin Bay, and subsequently the North Atlantic, are computed. The eastward transport of carbon from the Pacific, via the Arctic, to the North Atlantic is estimated. Altered mixing ratios of Pacific and freshwater in the Arctic Ocean have been recorded in recent decades. Any climatically driven alterations in the composition of waters leaving the Arctic Archipelago may have implications for anthropogenic CO2 uptake, and hence ocean acidification, in the subpolar and temperate North Atlantic.

scholarly journals The Impact of North Atlantic–Arctic Multidecadal Variability on Northern Hemisphere Surface Air Temperature

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (21) ◽  
pp. 5668-5677 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir A. Semenov ◽  
Mojib Latif ◽  
Dietmar Dommenget ◽  
Noel S. Keenlyside ◽  
Alexander Strehz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Decadal Climate Variability ◽  
Multidecadal Variability ◽  
The North ◽  
Hemisphere Surface ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Decadal Climate

Abstract The twentieth-century Northern Hemisphere surface climate exhibits a long-term warming trend largely caused by anthropogenic forcing, with natural decadal climate variability superimposed on it. This study addresses the possible origin and strength of internal decadal climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere during the recent decades. The authors present results from a set of climate model simulations that suggest natural internal multidecadal climate variability in the North Atlantic–Arctic sector could have considerably contributed to the Northern Hemisphere surface warming since 1980. Although covering only a few percent of the earth’s surface, the Arctic may have provided the largest share in this. It is hypothesized that a stronger meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic and the associated increase in northward heat transport enhanced the heat loss from the ocean to the atmosphere in the North Atlantic region and especially in the North Atlantic portion of the Arctic because of anomalously strong sea ice melt. The model results stress the potential importance of natural internal multidecadal variability originating in the North Atlantic–Arctic sector in generating interdecadal climate changes, not only on a regional scale, but also possibly on a hemispheric and even a global scale.

scholarly journals Impact of a Reduced Arctic Sea Ice Cover on Ocean and Atmospheric Properties

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 307-319 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Sedláček ◽  
Reto Knutti ◽  
Olivia Martius ◽  
Urs Beyerle
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Arctic Basin ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
The North ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract The Arctic sea ice cover declined over the last few decades and reached a record minimum in 2007, with a slight recovery thereafter. Inspired by this the authors investigate the response of atmospheric and oceanic properties to a 1-yr period of reduced sea ice cover. Two ensembles of equilibrium and transient simulations are produced with the Community Climate System Model. A sea ice change is induced through an albedo change of 1 yr. The sea ice area and thickness recover in both ensembles after 3 and 5 yr, respectively. The sea ice anomaly leads to changes in ocean temperature and salinity to a depth of about 200 m in the Arctic Basin. Further, the salinity and temperature changes in the surface layer trigger a “Great Salinity Anomaly” in the North Atlantic that takes roughly 8 yr to travel across the North Atlantic back to high latitudes. In the atmosphere the changes induced by the sea ice anomaly do not last as long as in the ocean. The response in the transient and equilibrium simulations, while similar overall, differs in specific regional and temporal details. The surface air temperature increases over the Arctic Basin and the anomaly extends through the whole atmospheric column, changing the geopotential height fields and thus the storm tracks. The patterns of warming and thus the position of the geopotential height changes vary in the two ensembles. While the equilibrium simulation shifts the storm tracks to the south over the eastern North Atlantic and Europe, the transient simulation shifts the storm tracks south over the western North Atlantic and North America. The authors propose that the overall reduction in sea ice cover is important for producing ocean anomalies; however, for atmospheric anomalies the regional location of the sea ice anomalies is more important. While observed trends in Arctic sea ice are large and exceed those simulated by comprehensive climate models, there is little evidence based on this particular model that the seasonal loss of sea ice (e.g., as occurred in 2007) would constitute a threshold after which the Arctic would exhibit nonlinear, irreversible, or strongly accelerated sea ice loss. Caution should be exerted when extrapolating short-term trends to future sea ice behavior.

scholarly journals Two leading modes of wintertime atmospheric circulation drive the recent warm Arctic-cold Eurasia temperature pattern

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
kunhui Ye ◽  
Gabriele Messori
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
The North ◽  
Downward Longwave Radiation ◽  
North Asia ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
The North Atlantic

<p>The wintertime warm Arctic-cold Eurasia (WACE) temperature trend during 1990-2010 was characterized by accelerating warming in the Arctic region, cooling in Eurasia and accelerating autumn/winter Arctic sea ice loss. We identify two atmospheric circulation modes over the North Atlantic-Northern Eurasian sector which displayed strong upward trends over the same period and can explain a large part of the observed decadal WACE pattern. Both modes bear a close resemblance to well-known teleconnection patterns and are relatively independent from anomalies in Arctic sea-ice cover. The first mode (PC1) captures the recent negative trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation and increased Greenland blocking frequency while the second mode (PC2) is reminiscent of a Rossby wave train and reflects an increased blocking frequency over the Urals and North Asia. We find that the loss in the Arctic sea ice and the upward trends in the PC1/PC2 together account for most of the decadal Arctic warming trend (>80%). However, the decadal Eurasian cooling trends may be primarily ascribed to the two circulation modes alone: all of the cooling in Siberia is contributed to by the PC1, and 65% of the cooling in East Asia by their combination (the contribution by PC2 doubles that by PC1). Enhanced intraseasonal activity of the two circulation modes increases blocking frequencies over Greenland, the Ural region and North Asia, which drive anomalous moisture/heat flux towards the Arctic and alter the downward longwave radiation. It weakens warm advection and enhances advection of Arctic cold airmass towards Eurasia.</p>

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document