Millennial solar irradiance forcing (Hallstatt’s cycle) in the terrestrial temperature variations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valentina Zharkova ◽  
Simon Shepherd ◽  
Elena Popova
Keyword(s):  
Magnetic Field ◽  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Total Solar Irradiance ◽  
Maunder Minimum ◽  
The Sun ◽  
Inertial Motion ◽  
Temperature Variations ◽  
Background Magnetic Field ◽  
Baseline Temperature

<p>In this paper we explore the millennial oscillations (or Hallstatt cycle) of the baseline solar magnetic field, total solar irradiance and baseline terrestrial temperature detected from Principal Component Analysis of the observed solar background magnetic field. We confirm the existence of these oscillations with a period of 2100-2200 years with the similar oscillations detected in carbon 14C isotope abundances and with wavelet analysis of solar irradiance in the past 12 millennia indicating the presence of this  millennial period among a few others. We also test again the idea expressed in our paper Zharkova et al, 2019 that solar inertial motion (SIM) can cause these millennial variations because of a change of the distance between the Sun and Earth. In this paper we use the S-E distance derived from the current JPL ephemeris, finding that currently starting from the Maunder minimum the Sun-Earth  distance is reducing by 0.00025 au per 100 years, or by 0.0025 au per 1000 years.. We present the estimation of variations of solar irradiance caused by this variation of the S-E distance caused by solar inertial motion (SIM) demonstrating these variations to be closely comparable with the observed variations of the solar irradiance measured by the SATIRE payload. We also estimate the baseline temperature variations since Maunder Minimum caused by the increase of solar irradiance caused by the recovery from grand solar minimum and by reduction of the S-E distance caused by  SIM. These estimations show that the Sun will still continue moving towards the Earth in the next 700 years that will result in the increase of the baseline terrestrial temperature by up to 2.5◦C in 2700. These variations of solar irradiance will be over-imposed by the variations of solar activity of 11 cycles and the two grand solar minima occurring in 2020-2053 and 2370-2415 caused by the double dynamo actions inside the Sun.</p>

Data Fusion of Total Solar Irradiance Composite Time Series Using 40 years of Satellite Measurements: First Results 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Philippe Montillet ◽  
Wolfgang Finsterle ◽  
Werner Schmutz ◽  
Margit Haberreiter ◽  
Rok Sikonja
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Data Fusion ◽  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Total Solar Irradiance ◽  
Maunder Minimum ◽  
The Sun ◽  
Climate Reconstructions ◽  
The Earth ◽  
First Results ◽  
The Difference

<p><span>Since the late 70’s, successive satellite missions have been monitoring the sun’s activity, recording total solar irradiance observations. These measurements are important to estimate the Earth’s energy imbalance, </span><span>i.e. the difference of energy absorbed and emitted by our planet. Climate modelers need the solar forcing time series in their models in order to study the influence of the Sun on the Earth’s climate. With this amount of TSI data, solar irradiance reconstruction models  can be better validated which can also improve studies looking at past climate reconstructions (e.g., Maunder minimum). V</span><span>arious algorithms have been proposed in the last decade to merge the various TSI measurements over the 40 years of recording period. We have developed a new statistical algorithm based on data fusion.  The stochastic noise processes of the measurements are modeled via a dual kernel including white and coloured noise.  We show our first results and compare it with previous releases (PMOD,ACRIM, ... ). </span></p>

scholarly journals Millennial Oscillations of Solar Irradiance and Magnetic Field in 600–2600

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valentina Zharkova
Keyword(s):  
Magnetic Field ◽  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Solar Magnetic Field ◽  
Total Solar Irradiance ◽  
Inertial Motion ◽  
Solar Forcing ◽  
Terrestrial Atmosphere ◽  
Daily Variations ◽  
Spring Equinox

Daily ephemeris of Sun-Earth distances in two millennia (600–2600) showed significant decreases in February–June by up to 0.005 au in millennium M1 (600–1600) and 0.011au in millennium M2 (1600–2600). The Earth’s aphelion in M2 is shorter because shifted towards mid-July and longer because shifted to mid January naturally explaining two-millennial variations (Hallstatt’s cycle) of the baseline solar magnetic field measured from Earth. The S-E distance variations are shown imposed by shifts of Sun’s position towards the spring equinox imposed by the gravitation of large planets, or solar inertial motion (SIM). Daily variations of total solar irradiance (TSI) calculated with these S-E distances revealed TSI increases in February–June by up to 10–12 W / m 2 in M1 and 14–18 W / m 2 in M2. There is also positive imbalance detected in the annual TSI magnitudes deposited to Earth in millennium M2 compared to millennium M1: up to 1.3 W / m 2 , for monthly, and up to 20–25 W / m 2 for daily TSI magnitudes. This imbalance confirms an ascending phase of the current TSI (Hallstatt’s) cycle in M2. The consequences for terrestrial atmosphere of this additional solar forcing induced by the annual TSI imbalances are evaluated. The implications of extra solar forcing for two modern grand solar minima in M2 are also discussed.

Polar Magnetic Field Reversals of the Sun in Maunder Minimum

2000 ◽  
Vol 179 ◽  
pp. 193-196
Author(s):  
V. I. Makarov ◽  
A. G. Tlatov
Keyword(s):  
Magnetic Field ◽  
Maunder Minimum ◽  
The Sun ◽  
Annual Rings ◽  
Field Reversal ◽  
Polar Magnetic Field ◽  
Pine Trees ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Magnetic Field Reversal

AbstractA possible scenario of polar magnetic field reversal of the Sun during the Maunder Minimum (1645–1715) is discussed using data of magnetic field reversals of the Sun for 1880–1991 and the14Ccontent variations in the bi-annual rings of the pine-trees in 1600–1730 yrs.

MHD and Ion Kinetic Waves in Field-aligned Flows Observed by Parker Solar Probe

2021 ◽  
Vol 922 (2) ◽  
pp. 188
Author(s):  
L.-L. Zhao ◽  
G. P. Zank ◽  
J. S. He ◽  
D. Telloni ◽  
L. Adhikari ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Magnetic Field ◽  
Solar Wind ◽  
Whistler Wave ◽  
Spectral Energy ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
The Sun ◽  
Fast Mode ◽  
Magnetic Fluctuations ◽  
Background Magnetic Field ◽  
Ion Cyclotron

Abstract Parker Solar Probe (PSP) observed predominately Alfvénic fluctuations in the solar wind near the Sun where the magnetic field tends to be radially aligned. In this paper, two magnetic-field-aligned solar wind flow intervals during PSP’s first two orbits are analyzed. Observations of these intervals indicate strong signatures of parallel/antiparallel-propagating waves. We utilize multiple analysis techniques to extract the properties of the observed waves in both magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) and kinetic scales. At the MHD scale, outward-propagating Alfvén waves dominate both intervals, and outward-propagating fast magnetosonic waves present the second-largest contribution in the spectral energy density. At kinetic scales, we identify the circularly polarized plasma waves propagating near the proton gyrofrequency in both intervals. However, the sense of magnetic polarization in the spacecraft frame is observed to be opposite in the two intervals, although they both possess a sunward background magnetic field. The ion-scale plasma wave observed in the first interval can be either an inward-propagating ion cyclotron wave (ICW) or an outward-propagating fast-mode/whistler wave in the plasma frame, while in the second interval it can be explained as an outward ICW or inward fast-mode/whistler wave. The identification of the exact kinetic wave mode is more difficult to confirm owing to the limited plasma data resolution. The presence of ion-scale waves near the Sun suggests that ion cyclotron resonance may be one of the ubiquitous kinetic physical processes associated with small-scale magnetic fluctuations and kinetic instabilities in the inner heliosphere.

First TSI results and status report of the CLARA/NorSat-1 solar absolute radiometer

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (A30) ◽  
pp. 358-360
Author(s):  
Benjamin Walter ◽  
Bo Andersen ◽  
Alexander Beattie ◽  
Wolfgang Finsterle ◽  
Greg Kopp ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Attitude Control ◽  
Total Solar Irradiance ◽  
Status Report ◽  
The Sun ◽  
Measurement Result ◽  
Satellite Attitude ◽  
Satellite Attitude Control ◽  
Electrical Interference ◽  
Investigation Problems

AbstractThe Compact Lightweight Absolute Radiometer (CLARA) is orbiting Earth on-board the Norwegian NorSat-1 micro-satellite since 14th of July 2017. The first light total solar irradiance (TSI) measurement result of CLARA is 1360.18 W m−2 for the so far single reliable Channel B. Channel A and C measured significantly lower (higher) TSI values and were found being sensitive to satellite pointing instabilities. These channels most likely suffer from electrical interference between satellite components and CLARA, an effect that is currently under investigation. Problems with the satellite attitude control currently inhibit stable pointing of CLARA to the Sun.

scholarly journals Changes in the Total Solar Irradiance and climatic effects

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
pp. 40
Author(s):  
Werner K. Schmutz
Keyword(s):  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Total Solar Irradiance ◽  
Cold Climate ◽  
Global Temperature ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Large Temperature ◽  
List Type ◽  
The Sun ◽  
Solar Forcing ◽  
Direct Forcing

The correlation between the averaged reconstructed March temperature record for Kyoto, Japan, and the reconstructed Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) irradiance over 660 years from 1230 to 1890 gives evidence with 98% probability that the Little Ice Age with four cold periods is forced by variations of TSI. If the correlation is restricted to the period 1650–1890, with two cold periods in the 17th and 19th century and for which two independent reconstructed March temperature records are available, the probability of solar forcing increases to 99.99%. As solar irradiance variations have a global effect there has to be a global climatic solar forcing impact. However, by how much global temperature were lower during these minima and with what amplitude TSI was varying is not accurately known. The two quantities, global temperature and TSI, are linked by the energy equilibrium equation for the Earth system. The derivation of this equation with respect to a variation of the solar irradiance has two terms: A direct forcing term, which can be derived analytically and quantified accurately from the Stefan-Boltzmann law, and a second term, describing indirect influences on the surface temperature. If a small TSI variation should force a large temperature variation, then it has to be the second indirect term that strongly amplifies the effect of the direct forcing. The current knowledge is summarized by three statements:During the minima periods in the 13th, 15/16th, 17th, and 19th centuries the terrestrial climate was colder by 0.5–1.5 °C;Indirect Top-down and Bottom-up mechanisms do not amplify direct forcing by a large amount, i.e. indirect solar forcing is of the same magnitude (or smaller) as direct solar forcing;The radiative output of the Sun cannot be lower by more than 2 Wm−2 below the measured present-day TSI value during solar cycle minimum.These three statements contradict each other and it is concluded that at least one is not correct. Which one is a wrong statement is presently not known conclusively. It is argued that it is the third statement and it is speculated that over centennial time scales the Sun might vary its radiance significantly more than observed so far during the last 40 years of space TSI measurements. To produce Maunder minimum type cold climate excursions, a TSI decrease of the order of 10 Wm−2 is advocated.

A reproducible solar irradiance estimation process using Recurrent Neural Network

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amita Muralikrishna ◽  
Rafael Santos ◽  
Luis Eduardo Vieira
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Recurrent Neural Network ◽  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Total Solar Irradiance ◽  
The Sun ◽  
Biological Processes ◽  
Rapid Variation ◽  
Future Studies ◽  
Analysis Process ◽  
Spectral Solar Irradiance

<p>The Sun have a constant action on Earth, interfering in different ways on life in our planet. The physical, chemical and biological processes that occur on Earth are directly influenced by the variation of solar irradiance, which is a function of the activity in the Sun’s different atmospheric layers and their rapid variation. Studying this relationship may require the availability of a large amount of collected data, without significant gaps that could be caused from many kinds of issues. In this work, we present a Recurrent Neural Network as an option for estimating the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) and the Spectral Solar Irradiance (SSI) variability. Solar images collected on different wave components were preprocessed and used as the input parameters, and TSI and SSI data collected by instruments onboard of SORCE were used as reference of the results we expected to achieve. Complementary to this approach, we opted for developing a reproducible procedure, for which we chose a free programming language, in attempt to offer the same kind of results, with same accuracy, for future studies which would like to reproduce our procedure. To achieve this, reproducible notebooks will be generated with the intention of providing transparency in the data analysis process and allowing the process and the results to be validated, modified and optimized by those who would like to do it. This approach aims to obtain a good accuracy in estimating the TSI and SSI, allowing its reconstruction in gap scales and also the forecast of their values six hours ahead.</p>

scholarly journals Revised historical solar irradiance forcing

2018 ◽  
Vol 615 ◽  
pp. A85 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Egorova ◽  
W. Schmutz ◽  
E. Rozanov ◽  
A. I. Shapiro ◽  
I. Usoskin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Spectral Synthesis ◽  
Total Solar Irradiance ◽  
Magnetic Activity ◽  
Maunder Minimum ◽  
Solar Modulation ◽  
Solar Forcing ◽  
Quiet Sun ◽  
Solar Magnetic Activity ◽  
Spectral Solar Irradiance

Context. There is no consensus on the amplitude of historical solar forcing. The estimated magnitude of the total solar irradiance (TSI) difference between the Maunder minimum and the present time ranges from 0.1 to 6 W m−2 making the simulation of the past and future climate uncertain. One reason for this disagreement is the applied evolution of the quiet Sun brightness in solar irradiance reconstruction models. This work addresses the role of the quiet Sun model choice and updated solar magnetic activity proxies on the solar forcing reconstruction. Aims. We aim to establish a plausible range for the solar irradiance variability on decadal to millennial timescales. Methods. The spectral solar irradiance (SSI) is calculated as a weighted sum of the contributions from sunspot umbra, sunspot penumbra, faculae, and quiet Sun, which are pre-calculated with the NLTE Spectral SYnthesis code (NESSY). We introduce activity belts of the contributions from sunspots and faculae and a new structure model for the quietest state of the Sun. We assume that the brightness of the quiet Sun varies in time proportionally to the secular (22-yr smoothed) variation of the solar modulation potential. Results. A new reconstruction of the TSI and SSI covering the period 6000 BCE - 2015 CE is presented. The model simulates solar irradiance variability during the satellite era well. The TSI change between the Maunder and recent minima ranges between 3.7 and 4.5 W m−2 depending on the applied solar modulation potential. The implementation of a new quietest Sun model reduces, by approximately a factor of two, the relative solar forcing compared to the largest previous estimation, while the application of an updated solar modulation potential increases the forcing difference between the Maunder minimum and the present by 25–40%.

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