Influence of long-term changes in solar irradiance forcing on the Southern Annular Mode

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is the leading mode of climate variability in the extratropical Southern Hemisphere, with major regional climate impacts. Observations, reconstructions, and historical climate simulations all show positive trends in the SAM since the 1960s; however, earlier trends in palaeoclimate SAM reconstructions cannot be reconciled with last millennium simulations. Here we investigate the sensitivity of the SAM to solar irradiance variations using simulations with a range of constant solar forcing values, and last millennium transient simulations with varying amplitude solar forcing scenarios. We find the mean SAM state can be significantly altered by solar irradiance changes, and that transient last millennium simulations using a high-amplitude solar scenario have an improved and significant agreement with proxy-based SAM reconstructions. Our findings suggest that the effects of solar forcing on high-latitude climate may not be adequately incorporated in most last millennium simulations, due to solar irradiance changes that are too small and/or the absence of interactive atmospheric chemistry in global climate models.

Centennial to millennial variability of greenhouse climate across the mid-Cenomanian event

Centennial- to millennial-scale climate variations are often attributed to solar forcing or internal climate system variability, but recognition of such variations in the deep-time paleoclimate record is extremely rare. We present an exceptionally well-preserved, millimeter-scale laminated marlstone from a succession of precession-driven limestone-marlstone couplets deposited in the Western Interior Seaway (North America) immediately preceding and during the Cretaceous mid-Cenomanian event (ca. 96.5 Ma). Sedimentological, geochemical, and micropaleontological data indicate that individual pairs of light-dark laminae record alternations in the extent of water-column mixing and oxygenation. Principal component analysis of X-ray fluorescence element counts and a grayscale scan of a continuous thin section through the marlstone reveal variations with 80–100 yr, 200–230 yr, 350–500 yr, ~1650 yr, and 4843 yr periodicities. A substantial fraction of the data indicates an anoxic bottom water variation with a pronounced 10,784 yr cycle. The centennial to millennial variations are reminiscent of those found in Holocene total solar irradiance variability, and the 10,784 yr anoxia cycle may be a manifestation of semi-precession-influenced Tethyan oxygen minimum zone waters entering the seaway.

Millennial variations of atmospheric CO₂ during the early Holocene (11.7–7.4 ka)

We present a new high-resolution record of atmospheric CO2 from the Siple Dome ice core, Antarctica over the early Holocene (11.7–7.4 ka) that quantifies natural CO2 variability on millennial timescales under interglacial climate conditions. Atmospheric CO2 decreased by ~10 ppm between 11.3 and 7.3 ka. The decrease was punctuated by local minima at 11.1, 10.1, 9.1 and 8.3 ka with amplitude of 2–6 ppm. These variations correlate with proxies for solar forcing and local climate in the South East Atlantic polar front, East Equatorial Pacific and North Atlantic. These relationships suggest that weak solar forcing changes might have impacted CO2 by changing CO2 outgassing from the Southern Ocean and the East Equatorial Pacific and terrestrial carbon storage in the Northern Hemisphere over the early Holocene.

Solar forcing of early Holocene droughts on the Yucatán peninsula

A speleothem record from the north-eastern Yucatán peninsula (Mexico) provides new insights into the tropical hydro-climate of the Americas between 11,040 and 9520 a BP on up to sub-decadal scale. Despite the complex atmospheric reorganization during the end of the last deglaciation, the dominant internal leading modes of precipitation variability during the late Holocene were also active during the time of record. While multi-decadal variations were not persistent, Mesoamerican precipitation was dominated by changes on the decadal- and centennial scale, which may be attributed to ENSO activity driven by solar forcing. Freshwater fluxes from the remnant Laurentide ice sheet into the Gulf of Mexico and the North Atlantic have additionally modulated the regional evaporation/precipitation balance. In particular, this study underlines the importance of solar activity on tropical and subtropical climate variability through forcing of the tropical Pacific, providing a plausible scenario for observed recurrent droughts on the decadal scale throughout the Holocene.

Synchronous Northern and Southern Hemisphere response of the westerly wind belt to solar forcing

It has been suggested from observations that the 11-year solar cycle influences regional tropospheric temperature and circulation relatively symmetrically around the equator. During periods of low (high) solar activity, the mid-latitude storm tracks are weakened (strengthened) and shifted towards the equator (poles). The mechanisms behind solar influence on climate are still debated and evidence from paleoclimate records often lacks precise dating required for assessing the global context. Well-dated proxy-based evidence for solar activity and natural climate change exist for the Northern Hemisphere, suggesting pattern similar to today for periods of grand solar minima. However, well-dated and high-resolution terrestrial climate reconstructions are lacking for the Southern Hemisphere. Here we present a unique precisely dated record for past changes in humidity and windiness from the Crozet archipelago at 46° S in the Southern Indian Ocean, a site strongly influenced by the westerly wind belt. We find an increased influence of the westerly winds shortly after 2800 cal year BP synchronous with a major decline in solar activity and significant changes in Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude wind and humidity records. Supported by a general circulation model run encompassing a grand solar minimum, we infer that periods of low solar activity are connected to an equator-ward shift of the mid-latitude westerly wind belts in both hemispheres comparable to the climate reaction to 11-year solar cycle variability inferred from reanalysis data. We conclude that solar forcing is connected to the bipolar climate response about 2800 years ago through synchronous changes in atmospheric circulation of similar sign in both hemispheres.

Late-Holocene: Cooler or warmer?

Early studies on the evolution of glaciers argue that the warm Early Holocene transitioned into a Late-Holocene Neoglacial, with numerous glacial advances due to decreasing solar forcing in the boreal summer. The assumption of decreasing temperatures based on the glacier studies was supported by several proxy-based reconstructions as well as by simulations. Under the keyword “Holocene temperature conundrum” this fact is questioned. In particular, it is argued that the proxy studies are biased on time series dominated by a seasonal bias in the form of predominant summer temperatures (mainly marine). After a presentation of the facts, the weaknesses of both hypotheses (cooler or warmer) are briefly presented.

Surface and Tropospheric Response of North Atlantic Summer Climate from Paleoclimate Simulations of the Past Millennium

We investigate the effects of solar forcing on the North Atlantic (NA) summer climate, in climate simulations with Earth System Models (ESMs), over the preindustrial past millennium (AD 850–1849). We use one simulation and a four-member ensemble performed with the MPI-ESM-P and CESM-LME models, respectively, forced only by low-scaling variations in Total Solar Irradiance (TSI). We apply linear methods (correlation and regression) and composite analysis to estimate the NA surface and tropospheric climatic responses to decadal solar variability. Linear methods in the CESM ensemble indicate a weak summer response in sea-level pressure (SLP) and 500-hPa geopotential height to TSI, with decreased values over Greenland and increased values over the NA subtropics. Composite analysis indicates that, during high-TSI periods, SLP decreases over eastern Canada and the geopotential height at 500-hPa increases over the subtropical NA. The possible summer response of SSTs is overlapped by model internal variability. Therefore, for low-scaling TSI changes, state-of-the-art ESMs disagree on the NA surface climatic effect of solar forcing indicated by proxy-based studies during the preindustrial millennium. The analysis of control simulations indicates that, in all climatic variables studied, spurious patterns of apparent solar response may arise from the analysis of single model simulations.

Solar Forcing of Early Holocene Droughts on the Yucatán Peninsula

A speleothem record from the north-eastern Yucatán peninsula (Mexico) provides new insights into the tropical hydro-climate of the Americas between 11,040 and 9,520 a BP on up to sub-decadal scale. Despite the complex atmospheric reorganization during the end of the last deglaciation, the dominant internal leading modes of precipitation variability during the late Holocene were also active during the time of record. While multi-decadal variations were not persistent, decadal- and centennial-scale ENSO activity driven by solar forcing dominated Mesoamerican precipitation variability. Freshwater fluxes from the remnant Laurentide ice sheet into the Gulf of Mexico and the North Atlantic have additionally modulated the regional evaporation/precipitation balance. In particular, this study underlines the importance of solar activity on tropical and subtropical climate variability through forcing of the tropical Pacific, providing a plausible scenario for observed recurrent droughts on the decadal scale throughout the Holocene.