Short Term Hydrological Forecasting for a Cascade Dam System: A Case Study of Euphrates Basin in Turkey

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alper Onen ◽  
Mehdi H. Afshar ◽  
Burak Bulut
Keyword(s):  
Global Forecast System ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Forecast Performance ◽  
System A ◽  
Scada System ◽  
Production Scheme ◽  
User Friendly ◽  
Hbv Model

<p>This study investigates the performance of short term daily hydrological forecasts utilizing Global Forecast System (GFS) and Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) model over a major sub-region (~25000 km<sup>2</sup>) located in Euphrates River Basin, Turkey. The test basin, over which the forecast algorithm is implemented, is home to five (four operational and another almost-complete) dams with 3 three more planned; all eight located within last 300 km reach of 730 km-long Murat River. The algorithm is aimed to operate through a user-friendly and reliable commercially available forecast interface for decision makers working on fields such as energy production scheme optimization and flood mitigation. In the development of this forecast strategy, the main basin was divided into multiple subbasins that are bordered with corresponding facilities and each subbasin is independently modelled & calibrated by HBV model and meteorological records using available stream gauge and weather station data collected in the region. The Global Forecast System (GFS) that provides 16-day meteorological forecast is then applied to model as the input for hydrological predictions. By implementing and clustering daily operation records of inflow and outflow data received directly from related regional SCADA system, volumetric hydrograph corrections are applied on the model output as a final corrective filter to maximize the temporal performance over the 16-day forecast period. As the system has been in use for nearly 20 months (as of January 2020), our results have shown that a calibrated data cluster performance nearing 0.98 has been reached in correlation and 0.90 in Nash-Sutcliffe index:  cluster-independent average weekly inspected forecast performance of almost 0.87 in correlation and 0.85 in Nash-Sutcliffe index has been obtained.</p>

Evaluation of Global Forecast System (GFS) Medium-Range Precipitation Forecasts in the Nile River Basin

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haowen Yue ◽  
Mekonnen Gebremichael ◽  
Vahid Nourani
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Global Forecast System ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Forecast Performance ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Rain Gauges ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Medium Range

Abstract Reliable weather forecasts are valuable in a number of applications, such as, agriculture, hydropower, and weather-related disease outbreaks. Global weather forecasts are widely used, but detailed evaluation over specific regions is paramount for users and operational centers to enhance the usability of forecasts and improve their accuracy. This study presents evaluation of the Global Forecast System (GFS) medium-range (1 day – 15 day) precipitation forecasts in the nine sub-basins of the Nile basin using NASA’s Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals (IMERG) “Final Run” satellite-gauge merged rainfall observations. The GFS products are available at a temporal resolution of 3-6 hours, spatial resolution of 0.25°, and its version-15 products are available since 12 June 2019. GFS forecasts are evaluated at a temporal scale of 1-15 days, spatial scale of 0.25° to all the way to the sub-basin scale, and for a period of one year (15 June 2019 – 15 June 2020). The results show that performance of the 1-day lead daily basin-averaged GFS forecast performance, as measured through the modified Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE), is poor (0 < KGE < 0.5) for most of the sub-basins. The factors contributing to the low performance are: (1) large overestimation bias in watersheds located in wet climate regimes in the northern hemispheres (Millennium watershed, Upper Atbara & Setit watershed, and Khashm El Gibra watershed), and (2) lower ability in capturing the temporal dynamics of watershed-averaged rainfall that have smaller watershed areas (Roseires at 14,110 sq. km and Sennar at 13,895 sq. km). GFS has better bias for watersheds located in the dry parts of the northern hemisphere or wet parts of the southern hemisphere, and better ability in capturing the temporal dynamics of watershed-average rainfall for large watershed areas. IMERG Early has better bias than GFS forecast for the Millennium watershed but still comparable and worse bias for the Upper Atbara & Setit, and Khashm El Gibra watersheds. The variation in the performance of the IMERG Early could be partly explained by the number of rain gauges used in the reference IMERG Final product, as 16 rain gauges were used for the Millennium watershed but only one rain gauge over each Upper Atbara & Setit, and Khashm El Gibra watershed. A simple climatological bias-correction of IMERG Early reduces in the bias in IMERG Early over most watersheds, but not all watersheds. We recommend exploring methods to increase the performance of GFS forecasts, including post-processing techniques through the use of both near-real-time and research-version satellite rainfall products.

scholarly journals Verification of Extratropical Cyclones within the NCEP Operational Models. Part I: Analysis Errors and Short-Term NAM and GFS Forecasts

2009 ◽  
Vol 24 (5) ◽  
pp. 1173-1190 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael E. Charles ◽  
Brian A. Colle
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
North America ◽  
North American ◽  
Eastern Pacific ◽  
Extratropical Cyclones ◽  
Global Forecast System ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The North

Abstract This paper verifies extratropical cyclones around North America and the adjacent oceans within the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) and North American Mesoscale (NAM) models during the 2002–07 cool seasons (October–March). The analyzed cyclones in the Global Forecast System (GFS) model, North American Mesoscale (NAM) model, and the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) were also compared against sea level pressure (SLP) observations around extratropical cyclones. The GFS analysis of SLP was clearly superior to the NAM and NARR analyses. The analyzed cyclone pressures in the NAM improved in 2006–07 when its data assimilation was switched to the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI). The NCEP GFS has more skillful cyclone intensity and position forecasts than the NAM over the continental United States and adjacent oceans, especially over the eastern Pacific, where the NAM has a large positive (underdeepening) bias in cyclone central pressure. For the short-term (0–60 h) forecasts, the GFS and NAM cyclone errors over the eastern Pacific are larger than the other regions to the east. There are relatively large biases in cyclone position for both models, which vary spatially around North America. The eastern Pacific has four to eight cyclone events per year on average, with errors &gt;10 mb at hour 48 in the GFS; this number has not decreased in recent years. There has been little improvement in the 0–2-day cyclone forecasts during the past 5 yr over the eastern United States, while there has been a relatively large improvement in the cyclone pressure predictions over the eastern Pacific in the NAM.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Environmental Moisture from NWP Models with Measurements from Advanced Geostationary Satellite Imager—A Case Study

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 670 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaowei Jiang ◽  
Jun Li ◽  
Zhenglong Li ◽  
Yunheng Xue ◽  
Di Di ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Global Forecast System ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Water Vapor Absorption ◽  
Polar Orbit ◽  
Vapor Absorption ◽  
Close Relationship ◽  
New Generation

The distribution of tropospheric moisture in the environment is highly associated with storm development. Therefore, it is important to evaluate the uncertainty of moisture fields from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models for better understanding and enhancing storm prediction. With water vapor absorption band radiance measurements from the advanced imagers onboard the new generation of geostationary weather satellites, it is possible to quantitatively evaluate the environmental moisture fields from NWP models. Three NWP models—Global Forecast System (GFS), Unified Model (UM), Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)—are evaluated with brightness temperature (BT) measurements from the three moisture channels of Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) onboard the Himawari-8 satellite for Typhoon Linfa (2015) case. It is found that the three NWP models have similar performance for lower tropospheric moisture, and GFS has a smaller bias for middle tropospheric moisture. Besides, there is a close relationship between moisture forecasts in the environment and the tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts in GFS, while regional WRF does not show this pattern. When the infrared and microwave sounder radiance measurements from polar orbit satellite are assimilated in regional WRF, it is clearly shown that the environment moisture fields are improved compared with that with only conventional data are assimilated.

DESCRIPTION AND APPLICATION OF THE OPERATIONAL OIL SPILL FORECAST SYSTEM TESEO

2008 ◽  
Vol 2008 (1) ◽  
pp. 1023-1029
Author(s):  
ANA J. Abasca ◽  
Sonia Castanedo ◽  
A. David Gutierrez ◽  
Raul Medina ◽  
Inigo J. Losada ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Spill ◽  
Oil Spills ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
System A ◽  
Oil Spill Response ◽  
Complete Set ◽  
Oceanographic Data ◽  
User Friendly

ABSTRACT In the framework of the ESEOO Project (Spanish Operational Oceanography System) a complete set of models has been developed to simulate oil spills transport and fate processes. These models have been integrated in a user friendly operational system called TESEO. The main objective of the TESEO system is to integrate the meteorological and oceanographic data as well as the oil properties data required by the oil spill model to provide the evolution of contaminating spills at a regional scale. The system is linked with the operational winds and currents forecast system and, consequently, is able to provide useful information to decision-makers in a crisis situation. The performance of TESEO system has been successfully tested during four operational oil spills exercises organized by the Spanish Maritime Safety and Rescue Agency (SASEMAR) with the collaboration of the ESEOO Group. In these exercises, the TESEO system was used to provide forecast spill trajectories and fate processes to decision-makers in real time. Detailed information regarding the operational requirements of the system and its utilization during the Finisterre-2006 exercise is presented in this paper. The Finisterre-2006 exercise, as well as the other operational exercises performed, shows the TESEO system'S capability as a useful tool in an oil spill response.

Effects of short-term flooding on arsenic transport in groundwater system: A case study of the Datong Basin

2015 ◽  
Vol 158 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qian Yu ◽  
Yanxin Wang ◽  
Xianjun Xie ◽  
Matthew Currell ◽  
Kunfu Pi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Short Term ◽  
Groundwater System ◽  
Datong Basin ◽  
System A ◽  
Arsenic Transport
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