Dynamic Rupture and Ground Motion Modeling of the 2016 M6.2 Amatrice and M6.5 Norcia, Central Italy, Earthquakes Constrained by Bayesian Dynamic Source Inversion

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Taufiq Taufiqurrahman ◽  
Alice-Agnes Gabriel ◽  
Frantisek Gallovic ◽  
Lubica Valentova
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Central Italy ◽  
Foot Wall ◽  
Source Inversion ◽  
Dynamic Rupture ◽  
Highly Efficient ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Dynamic Source ◽  
Strong Ground

<p>The complex evolution of earthquake rupture during the 2016 Central Italy sequence and the uniquely dense seismological observations provide an opportunity to better understand the processes controlling earthquake dynamics, strong ground motion, and earthquake interaction. </p><p>We here use fault initial stress and friction conditions constrained by a novel Bayesian dynamic source inversion as a starting point for high-resolution dynamic rupture scenarios. The best-fitting forward models are chosen out of ~10<sup>6</sup> highly efficient simulations restricted to a simple planar dipping fault. Such constrained, highly heterogeneous dynamic models fit strong motion data well. Utilizing the open-source SeisSol software (www.seissol.org), we then take into account non-planar (e.g., listric) fault geometries, inelastic off-fault damage rheology, free surface effects and topography which cannot be accounted for in the highly efficient dynamic source inversion. SeisSol is based on the discontinuous Galerkin method on unstructured tetrahedral meshes optimized for modern supercomputers. </p><p>We investigate the effects of including the realistic modeling ingredients on rupture dynamics and strong ground motions up to 5 Hz. Synthetic PGV mapping reveals that specifically fault listricity decreases ground motion amplitudes by  ~50 percent in the extreme near field on the foot-wall. On the hanging-wall shaking is increased by ~150 percent as a consequence of wave-focusing effects within 10 km away from the fault. Dynamic modeling thus suggests that geometrical fault complexity is important for seismic hazard assessment adjacent to dipping faults but difficult to identify by kinematic source inversions.</p>

scholarly journals Near-Source Simulation of Strong Ground Motion in Amatrice Downtown Including Site Effects

Geosciences ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 186
Author(s):  
Alessandro Todrani ◽  
Giovanna Cultrera
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Site Effects ◽  
Central Italy ◽  
Strong Motion ◽  
Seismic Source ◽  
Spectral Ratio ◽  
Intensity Measures ◽  
Standard Spectral Ratio ◽  
Heavy Damage ◽  
Strong Ground

On 24 August 2016, a Mw 6.0 earthquake started a damaging seismic sequence in central Italy. The historical center of Amatrice village reached the XI degree (MCS scale) but the high vulnerability alone could not explain the heavy damage. Unfortunately, at the time of the earthquake only AMT station, 200 m away from the downtown, recorded the mainshock, whereas tens of temporary stations were installed afterwards. We propose a method to simulate the ground motion affecting Amatrice, using the FFT amplitude recorded at AMT, which has been modified by the standard spectral ratio (SSR) computed at 14 seismic stations in downtown. We tested the procedure by comparing simulations and recordings of two later mainshocks (Mw 5.9 and Mw 6.5), underlining advantages and limits of the technique. The strong motion variability of simulations was related to the proximity of the seismic source, accounted for by the ground motion at AMT, and to the peculiar site effects, described by the transfer function at the sites. The largest amplification characterized the stations close to the NE hill edge and produced simulated values of intensity measures clearly above one standard deviation of the GMM expected for Italy, up to 1.6 g for PGA.

Characteristics of strong ground motion data recorded in the Gubbio sedimentary basin (Central Italy)

2006 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Pacor ◽  
D. Bindi ◽  
L. Luzi ◽  
S. Parolai ◽  
S. Marzorati ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Strong Ground Motion ◽  
Sedimentary Basin ◽  
Central Italy ◽  
Motion Data ◽  
Strong Ground

scholarly journals Constraining families of dynamic models using geological, geodetic and strong ground motion data: the Mw 6.5, October 30th, 2016, Norcia earthquake, Italy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elisa Tinti ◽  
Emanuele Casarotti ◽  
Thomas Ulrich ◽  
Duo Li ◽  
Taufiqurrahman Taufiqurrahman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Central Italy ◽  
Kinematic Model ◽  
Seismic Wave Propagation ◽  
Dynamic Rupture ◽  
Friction Coefficients ◽  
Multiple Faults ◽  
Central Italy Earthquake ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Kinematic Models

The 2016 Central Italy earthquake sequence is characterized by remarkable rupture complexity, including highly heterogeneous slip across multiple faults in an extensional tectonic regime. The dense coverage and high quality of geodetic and seismic data allow to image intriguing details of the rupture kinematics of the largest earthquake of the sequence, the Mw 6.5 October 30th, 2016 Norcia earthquake, such as an energetically weak nucleation phase. Several kinematic models suggest multiple fault planes rupturing simultaneously, however, the mechanical viability of such models is not guaranteed.Using 3D dynamic rupture and seismic wave propagation simulations accounting for two fault planes, we constrain 'families' of spontaneous dynamic models informed by a high-resolution kinematic rupture model of the earthquake. These families differ in their parameterization of initial heterogeneous shear stress and strength in the framework of linear slip weakening friction.First, we dynamically validate the kinematically inferred two-fault geometry and rake inferences with models based on only depth-dependent stress and constant friction coefficients. Then, more complex models with spatially heterogeneous dynamic parameters allow us to retrieve slip distributions similar to the target kinematic model and yield good agreement with seismic and geodetic observations. We discuss the consistency of the assumed constant or heterogeneous static and dynamic friction coefficients with mechanical properties of rocks at 3-10 km depth characterizing the Italian Central Apennines and their local geological and lithological implications. We suggest that suites of well-fitting dynamic rupture models belonging to the same family generally exist and can be derived by exploiting the trade-offs between dynamic parameters.Our approach will be applicable to validate the viability of kinematic models and classify spontaneous dynamic rupture scenarios that match seismic and geodetic observations at the same time as geological constraints.

Multicycle Simulation of Strike-Slip Earthquake Rupture for Use in Near-Source Ground-Motion Simulations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Percy Galvez ◽  
Anatoly Petukhin ◽  
Paul Somerville ◽  
Jean-Paul Ampuero ◽  
Ken Miyakoshi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Stress Drop ◽  
Slip Rate ◽  
Rupture Process ◽  
Earthquake Rupture ◽  
Rupture Velocity ◽  
Source Inversion ◽  
Dynamic Rupture ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Source Scaling

ABSTRACT Realistic dynamic rupture modeling validated by observed earthquakes is necessary for estimating parameters that are poorly resolved by seismic source inversion, such as stress drop, rupture velocity, and slip rate function. Source inversions using forward dynamic modeling are increasingly used to obtain earthquake rupture models. In this study, to generate a large number of physically self-consistent rupture models, rupture process of which is consistent with the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of stress produced by previous earthquakes on the same fault, we use multicycle simulations under the rate and state (RS) friction law. We adopt a one-way coupling from multicycle simulations to dynamic rupture simulations; the quasidynamic solver QDYN is used to nucleate the seismic events and the spectral element dynamic solver SPECFEM3D to resolve their rupture process. To simulate realistic seismicity, with a wide range of magnitudes and irregular recurrence, several realizations of 2D-correlated heterogeneous random distributions of characteristic weakening distance (Dc) in RS friction are tested. Other important parameters are the normal stress, which controls the stress drop and rupture velocity during an earthquake, and the maximum value of Dc, which controls rupture velocity but not stress drop. We perform a parametric study on a vertical planar fault and generate a set of a hundred spontaneous rupture models in a wide magnitude range (Mw 5.5–7.4). We validate the rupture models by comparison of source scaling, ground motion (GM), and surface slip properties to observations. We compare the source-scaling relations between rupture area, average slip, and seismic moment of the modeled events with empirical ones derived from source inversions. Near-fault GMs are computed from the source models. Their peak ground velocities and peak ground accelerations agree well with the ground-motion prediction equation values. We also obtain good agreement of the surface fault displacements with observed values.

Dynamic Rupture Simulations of the 1920 Ms 8.5 Haiyuan Earthquake in China

2019 ◽  
Vol 109 (5) ◽  
pp. 2009-2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiurong Xu ◽  
Zhenguo Zhang ◽  
Feng Hu ◽  
Xiaofei Chen
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Intensity Distribution ◽  
Strong Ground Motion ◽  
Ground Surface ◽  
Peak Ground Velocity ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Dynamic Rupture ◽  
Seismogenic Fault ◽  
Maximum Displacement ◽  
Strong Ground

Abstract The Haiyuan fault is a major seismogenic fault on the northeastern edge of the Tibetan–Qinghai plateau. The 16 December 1920 Ms 8.5 Haiyuan, China, earthquake is the largest and most recent event along the eastern Haiyuan fault (the Haiyuan fault in the article). Because only a few near‐field seismic recordings are available, the rupture process remains unclear. To understand the source process and intensity distribution of the 1920 Haiyuan earthquake, we simulated the dynamic rupture and strong ground motion of said earthquake using the 3D curved‐grid finite‐difference method. Considering the differences in epicenter locations among various catalogs, we constructed two models with different source points. For each model, three versions with different fault geometries were investigated: one continuous fault model and two discontinuous fault models with different stepover widths (1.8 and 2.5 km, respectively). A dynamic rupture source model with a final slip distribution similar to that observed on the ground surface was found. The maximum displacement on the ground surface was ∼6.5  m. Based on the dynamic rupture model, we also simulated the strong ground motion and estimated the theoretical intensity distribution. The maximum value of the horizontal peak ground velocity occurs near Haiyuan County, where the intensity reaches XI. Without considering the site conditions, the intensity values in most regions, based on the dynamic scenarios, are smaller than the values from field investigation. In this work, we present physically based insights into the 1920 Haiyuan earthquake, which is important for understanding rupture processes and preventing seismic hazards on the northeastern boundary of the Tibetan plateau.

Kinematic constraining of the multi-fault rupture dynamics of the Norcia, Mw 6.5, 30 October 2016, Central Italy earthquake

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elisa Tinti ◽  
Emanuele Casarotti ◽  
Alice-Agnes Gabriel ◽  
Taufiqurrahman Taufiqurrahman ◽  
Thomas Ulrich ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Central Italy ◽  
Source Inversion ◽  
Fault Rupture ◽  
Kinematic Modeling ◽  
Dynamic Rupture ◽  
Multiple Faults ◽  
Initial Strength ◽  
Central Italy Earthquake ◽  
Kinematic Models ◽  
Geological Constraints

<p>The 2016 Central Italy sequence showed a remarkable complexity involving multiple faults. Highly heterogeneous slip distributions were inferred from kinematic finite source inversions. The coverage and quality of the geodetic and seismic data allow resolving high-resolution details of rupture kinematics of the largest event of the sequence, the Mw 6.5 30 October 2016 Norcia earthquake. Composite fault rupture models suggest that two fault planes may have slipped simultaneously. Nevertheless, kinematic modeling cannot assess the mechanic viability of such multiple fault plane models.</p><p>Using SeisSol, a software package for simulating wave propagation and dynamic rupture based on the arbitrary high-order accurate derivative discontinuous Galerkin method, we therefore try to generate spontaneous dynamic ruptures models compatible with the two fault planes constrained by kinematic inversions. To this end, we adopt a simple slip-weakening friction law with spatially variable dynamic friction and initial strength parameters along multiple faults, compatible with the slip distributions found in the literature. Although we do not to aim to explore the full parameter space, our approach allows testing the feasibility of kinematic models in conjunction with successfully generating spontaneous dynamic rupture scenarios matching seismic and geodetic observations with geological constraints. Such linking enhances and validates the physical implications of kinematic earthquake source inversion.</p>

Near-Source Ground Motions and Their Variability Derived from Dynamic Rupture Simulations Constrained by NGA-West2 GMPEs

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ľubica Valentová ◽  
František Gallovič ◽  
Sébastien Hok
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Ground Motions ◽  
Synthetic Data ◽  
Ground Motion Prediction Equations ◽  
Dynamic Rupture ◽  
Motion Modeling ◽  
Mixed Effect ◽  
Effect Model ◽  
Stress Drops ◽  
Strong Ground

ABSTRACT Empirical ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) lack a sufficient number of measurements at near-source distances. Seismologists strive to supplement the missing data by physics-based strong ground-motion modeling. Here, we build a database of ∼3000 dynamic rupture scenarios, assuming a vertical strike-slip fault of 36×20  km embedded in a 1D layered elastic medium and linear slip-weakening friction with heterogeneous parameters along the fault. The database is built by a Monte Carlo procedure to follow median and variability of Next Generation Attenuation-West2 Project GMPEs by Boore et al. (2014) at Joyner–Boore distances 10–80 km. The synthetic events span a magnitude range of 5.8–6.8 and have static stress drops between 5 and 40 MPa. These events are used to simulate ground motions at near-source stations within 5 km from the fault. The synthetic ground motions saturate at the near-source distances, and their variability increases at the near stations compared to the distant ones. In the synthetic database, the within-event and between-event variability are extracted for the near and distant stations employing a mixed-effect model. The within-event variability is lower than its empirical value, only weakly dependent on period, and generally larger for the near stations than for the distant ones. The between-event variability is by 1/4 lower than its empirical value at periods >1  s. We show that this can be reconciled by considering epistemic error in Mw when determining GMPEs, which is not present in the synthetic data.

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