Relative contributions of North and South Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies to ENSO

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruiqiang Ding ◽  
Yu-heng Tseng ◽  
Jianping Li
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
South Pacific ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Coupling Mechanism ◽  
The South ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
The North ◽  
Sst Forcing

<p>Variations in the sea surface temperature (SST) field in both the North Pacific [represented by the Victoria mode (VM)] and the South Pacific [represented by the South Pacific Quadrapole (SPQ) mode] are related to the state of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) three seasons later. Here, with the aid of observational data and numerical experiments, we demonstrate that both VM and SPQ SST forcing can influence the development of ENSO events through a similar air–sea coupling mechanism. By comparing ENSO amplitudes induced by the VM and SPQ, as well as the percentages of strong ENSO events followed by the VM and SPQ events, we find that the VM and SPQ make comparable contributions and therefore have similar levels of importance to ENSO. Additional analysis indicates that although VM or SPQ SST forcing alone may serve as a good predictor for ENSO events, it is more effective to consider their combined influence. A prediction model based on both VM and SPQ indices is developed, which is capable of yielding skillful forecasts for ENSO at lead times of three seasons.</p>

scholarly journals Do Climate Models Capture the Tropical Influences on North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Variability?

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (23) ◽  
pp. 6203-6209 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabian Lienert ◽  
John C. Fyfe ◽  
William J. Merryfield
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Temperature Variability ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Model Errors ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Pacific

Abstract This study evaluates the ability of global climate models to reproduce observed tropical influences on North Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature variability. In an ensemble of climate models, the study finds that the simulated North Pacific response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing is systematically delayed relative to the observed response because of winter and spring mixed layers in the North Pacific that are too deep and air–sea feedbacks that are too weak. Model biases in mixed layer depth and air–sea feedbacks are also associated with a model mean ENSO-related signal in the North Pacific whose amplitude is overestimated by about 30%. The study also shows that simulated North Pacific variability has more power at lower frequencies than is observed because of model errors originating in the tropics and extratropics. Implications of these results for predictions on seasonal, decadal, and longer time scales are discussed.

scholarly journals Observed modes of sea surface temperature variability in the South Pacific region

2017 ◽  
Vol 50 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 1129-1143 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramiro I. Saurral ◽  
Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes ◽  
Javier García-Serrano
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
South Pacific ◽  
Temperature Variability ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Pacific Region ◽  
The South

Multidecadal Change of the South Pacific Gyre Circulation

2016 ◽  
Vol 46 (6) ◽  
pp. 1871-1883 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dean Roemmich ◽  
John Gilson ◽  
Philip Sutton ◽  
Nathalie Zilberman
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
South Pacific ◽  
Sea Surface Height ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Depth Range ◽  
The South ◽  
South Pacific Gyre

AbstractMultidecadal trends in ocean heat and freshwater content are well documented, but much less evidence exists of long-term changes in ocean circulation. Previously, a 12-yr increase, 1993 to 2004, in the circulation of the South Pacific Subtropical Gyre interior was described. That analysis was based on differences between early Argo and 1990s hydrographic data and changes in sea surface height. Here, it is shown that the trend of increasing circulation continues through 2014, with some differences within the Argo decade (2005 to 2014). Patterns that indicate or are consistent with increasing equatorward transport in the eastern portion of the South Pacific Gyre are seen in Argo temperature and steric height, Argo trajectory velocity, altimetric sea surface height, sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, and wind stress. Between 2005 and 2014 the geostrophic circulation across 35°S, from 160°W to South America, was enhanced by 5 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) of added northward flow. This was countered by a southward transport anomaly between the date line and 160°W. Corresponding temperature trends span the full 2000-m depth range of Argo observations. The 22-yr trend, 1993 to 2014, in sea surface height at 35°S, 160°W is 8 cm decade−1. Trends in sea surface temperature over 34 yr, 1981 to 2014, show a similar spatial pattern to that of sea surface height, with an increase of 0.5°C decade−1 at 35°S, 160°W. These multidecadal trends support the interpretation of the 40°S maximum in global ocean heat gain as resulting from anomalous wind forcing and Ekman convergence.

scholarly journals Evaluation of the South Pacific Convergence Zone in IPCC AR4 Climate Model Simulations of the Twentieth Century

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (6) ◽  
pp. 1565-1582 ◽  
Author(s):  
Josephine R. Brown ◽  
Scott B. Power ◽  
Francois P. Delage ◽  
Robert A. Colman ◽  
Aurel F. Moise ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
South Pacific ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
South Pacific Convergence Zone ◽  
Convergence Zone ◽  
The South ◽  
Model Simulations

Abstract Understanding how the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) may change in the future requires the use of global coupled atmosphere–ocean models. It is therefore important to evaluate the ability of such models to realistically simulate the SPCZ. The simulation of the SPCZ in 24 coupled model simulations of the twentieth century is examined. The models and simulations are those used for the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The seasonal climatology and interannual variability of the SPCZ is evaluated using observed and model precipitation. Twenty models simulate a distinct SPCZ, while four models merge intertropical convergence zone and SPCZ precipitation. The majority of models simulate an SPCZ with an overly zonal orientation, rather than extending in a diagonal band into the southeast Pacific as observed. Two-thirds of models capture the observed meridional displacement of the SPCZ during El Niño and La Niña events. The four models that use ocean heat flux adjustments simulate a better tropical SPCZ pattern because of a better representation of the Pacific sea surface temperature pattern and absence of cold sea surface temperature biases on the equator. However, the flux-adjusted models do not show greater skill in simulating the interannual variability of the SPCZ. While a small subset of models does not adequately reproduce the climatology or variability of the SPCZ, the majority of models are able to capture the main features of SPCZ climatology and variability, and they can therefore be used with some confidence for future climate projections.

scholarly journals Are Sea Surface Temperature satellite measurements reliable proxies of lagoon temperature in the South Pacific?

2017 ◽  
Vol 199 ◽  
pp. 117-124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Van Wynsberge ◽  
Christophe Menkes ◽  
Romain Le Gendre ◽  
Teuru Passfield ◽  
Serge Andréfouët
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
South Pacific ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
The South ◽  
Satellite Measurements

scholarly journals Using Equatorial Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies to Forecast Seasonal Energy Demand in Four U.S. Regions: An Applied Climate Research Experience for Undergraduate Meteorology Students

1999 ◽  
Vol 80 (6) ◽  
pp. 1139-1148 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Russo ◽  
David Changnon ◽  
Mike Podolak ◽  
Hugh Freestrom ◽  
Jon B. Davis
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Degree Days ◽  
Predictive Index ◽  
Enso Events

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon explains some of the interannual climate variability in many tropical and midlatitude regions. It is important in developing more accurate seasonal climate forecasts and thus in aiding long-range weather-sensitive decision making in various sectors. The degree to which ENSO information could forecast one of three classes of seasonal cooling degree days (CDD) and heating degree days (HDD) was examined using 1) the magnitude of the ENSO event during a given season, 2) the preseason rate of change of sea surface temperature (SSTs) (December–May for summers and June–October for winters), and 3) the effects of strong winter ENSO events on future seasons. All three ENSO-related indices were based on monthly equatorial Pacific SST anomalies in the Niño-3.4 region. Regional probabilities of each HDD/CDD category (above, average, and below) were determined for each ENSO predictive index. The highest probability of experiencing an HDD/CDD anomaly occurs with strong preseason SST trends. When presummer SST cooling occurs, the northeast and midcontinent experience above-average CDD (80% and 75%, respectively). Other interesting relationships were found between strong winter ENSO events and ensuing HDD/CDD anomalies. These results suggest that utility-based decision makers who can utilize enhanced climate information may reap benefits during particular years by integrating the ENSO information into their models. This study was part of a special student training experiment conducted at Northern Illinois University.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document