Seismogenic behaviour in the Lesser Antilles: Insights from geodetic observations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elenora van Rijsingen ◽  
Eric Calais ◽  
Romain Jolivet ◽  
Jean-Bernard de Chabalier ◽  
Jorge Jara ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Subduction Zone ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Historical Earthquakes ◽  
Lesser Antilles ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Megathrust Earthquakes ◽  
Interseismic Coupling ◽  
Actual Degree ◽  
Block Models ◽  
Gps Time Series

<p>The Lesser Antilles subduction zone is a challenging region when it comes to unravelling its seismogenic behaviour. Over the last century, it has been seismically quiet, with no large thrust events recorded, leading to the question whether this subduction zone is able to produce large interplate earthquakes or not. The slow subduction velocity of ~20 mm/yr complicates this even further, as mega-earthquake recurrence times would be up to many hundreds of years in the case of a fully locked subduction interface, and up to several thousands of years for a partially locked interface. The record of two large historical earthquakes, a M ~8 in 1839 and M ~8.5 in 1843, is often referred to as evidence supporting the seismic character of the Lesser Antilles subduction zone. It remains, however, questionable whether these events actually occurred along the subduction interface.</p><p>Here we use GPS data acquired on various islands within the Antilles to infer interseismic coupling along the Lesser Antilles Arc. Previous block models have suggested low coupling of the subduction interface, making the occurrence of large megathrust earthquakes less likely. However, the non-uniqueness of these inversions, as well as uncertainties related to the distance between GPS stations and the subduction trench, cast doubts on how well the inferred coupling represents the actual degree of locking along the subduction interface. In this study, we attempt to improve these estimates, by using a Bayesian approach to derive a meaningful set of uncertainties on the distribution of interseismic coupling. By exploring the entire range of model parameters, we are able to provide a probabilistic estimate of interseismic coupling. To further improve our analysis with respect to previous models, we incorporate a layered elastic structure, as well as a more realistic fault geometry, testing two different slab models.</p><p>Our results suggest that the subduction interface of the Lesser Antilles subduction zone is most likely to be uncoupled. A sensitivity analysis highlights the deeper part of the interface (i.e., 30-60 km depth) as the region with higher sensitivity, since the GPS stations are distributed mostly above that portion of the subduction. A test regarding the proposed 1843 rupture contour reveals that this area is very unlikely to be locked. This apparent aseismic character of the Lesser Antilles raises questions about the role of slow slip along the interface. We therefore also analyse GPS time series to assess the spatial and temporal distribution of transient deformation signals in the region.</p>

scholarly journals Megathrust Slip Behavior for Great Earthquakes Along the Sumatra-Andaman Subduction Zone Mapped From Satellite GOCE Gravity Field Derivatives

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Orlando Álvarez ◽  
Stefanie Pechuan Canet ◽  
Mario Gimenez ◽  
Andrés Folguera
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Field ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Inverse Relationship ◽  
Historical Earthquakes ◽  
Gravity Gradient ◽  
Megathrust Earthquakes ◽  
Vertical Gravity Gradient ◽  
Interseismic Coupling ◽  
Vertical Gravity ◽  
Gravity Signal

During the last two decades, space geodesy allowed mapping accurately rupture areas, slip distribution, and seismic coupling by obtaining refined inversion models and greatly improving the study of great megathrust earthquakes. A better understanding of these phenomena involving large areas of hundreds of square kilometers came from the last gravity satellite mission that allowed detecting mass transfer through the Earth interior. In this work, we performed direct modeling of satellite GOCE (Gravity Field and Steady-State Ocean Circulation Explorer) derived gravity gradients up to degree/order N = 200 of the harmonic expansion and then corrected this by the effect of topography. Cutting off the model up to this degree/order allows inferring mass heterogeneities located at an approximate depth of 31 km, just along the plate interface where most (but not all) significant slip occurs. Then, we compared the vertical gravity gradient to well-constrained coseismic slip models for three of the last major earthquakes along the Sunda interface. We analyzed seismic rupture behavior for recent and for historical earthquakes along this subduction margin and the relationship of the degree of interseismic coupling using the gravity signal. From this, we found that strong slip patches occurred along minima gravity gradient lobes and that the maximum vertical displacements were related quantitatively to the gravity-derived signal. The degree of interseismic coupling also presents a good correspondence to the vertical gravity gradient, showing an inverse relationship, with low degrees of coupling over regions of relatively higher density. This along-strike segmentation of the gravity signal agrees with the along-strike seismic segmentation observed from recent and historical earthquakes. The thermally controlled down-dip ending of the locked fault zone along central Sumatra also presented an inverse relationship with the density structure along the forearc inferred using our modeling. From this work, we inferred different mass heterogeneities related to persistent tectonic features along the megathrust and along the marine forearc, which may control strain accumulation and release along the megathrust. Combining these data with geodetical and seismological data could possibly delimit and monitor areas with a higher potential seismic hazard around the world.

scholarly journals Seismic and Aseismic Cycle of the Ecuador–Colombia Subduction Zone

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Chlieh ◽  
C. Beauval ◽  
H. Yepes ◽  
J. Marinière ◽  
M. Saillard ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Subduction Zone ◽  
Seismic Moment ◽  
Recurrence Time ◽  
Maximum Magnitude ◽  
Magnitude Distribution ◽  
Megathrust Earthquakes ◽  
Rupture Area ◽  
Interseismic Coupling ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Frequency Magnitude Distribution

The Colombia–Ecuador subduction zone is an exceptional natural laboratory to study the seismic cycle associated with large and great subduction earthquakes. Since the great 1906 Mw = 8.6 Colombia–Ecuador earthquake, four large Mw > 7.5 megathrust earthquakes occurred within the 1906 rupture area, releasing altogether a cumulative seismic moment of ∼35% of the 1906 seismic moment. We take advantage of newly released seismic catalogs and global positioning system (GPS) data at the scale of the Colombia–Ecuador subduction zone to balance the moment deficit that is building up on the megathrust interface during the interseismic period with the seismic and aseismic moments released by transient slip episodes. Assuming a steady-state interseismic loading, we found that the seismic moment released by the 2016 Mw = 7.8 Pedernales earthquake is about half of the moment deficit buildup since 1942, suggesting that the Pedernales segment was mature to host that seismic event and its postseismic afterslip. In the aftermath of the 2016 event, the asperities that broke in 1958 and 1979 both appears to be mature to host a large Mw > 7.5 earthquakes if they break in two individual seismic events, or an Mw∼7.8–8.0 earthquake if they break simultaneously. The analysis of our interseismic-coupling map suggests that the great 1906 Colombia–Ecuador earthquake could have ruptured a segment of 400 km-long bounded by two 80 km wide creeping segments that coincide with the entrance into the subduction of the Carnegie ridge in Ecuador and the Yaquina Graben in Colombia. These creeping segments share similar frictional properties and may both behave as strong seismic barriers able to stop ruptures associated with great events like in 1906. Smaller creeping segments are imaged within the 1906 rupture area and are located at the extremities of the large 1942, 1958, 1979, and 2016 seismic ruptures. Finally, assuming that the frequency–magnitude distribution of megathrust seismicity follows the Gutenberg–Richter law and considering that 50% of the transient slip on the megathrust is aseismic, we found that the maximum magnitude subduction earthquake that can affect this subduction zone has a moment magnitude equivalent to Mw ∼8.8 with a recurrence time of 1,400 years. No similar magnitude event has yet been observed in that region.

scholarly journals Impact of a tsunami generated at the Lesser Antilles subduction zone on the Northern Atlantic Ocean coastlines

2014 ◽  
Vol 38 ◽  
pp. 43-53
Author(s):  
J. Roger ◽  
A. Frère ◽  
H. Hébert
Keyword(s):  
Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Subduction Zone ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Oceanic Islands ◽  
Lesser Antilles ◽  
Grand Banks ◽  
Megathrust Earthquakes ◽  
Evacuation Plans ◽  
Northern Atlantic ◽  
Northern Atlantic Ocean

Abstract. On 11 March 2011, a Mw ~ 9.0 megathrust earthquake occurred off the coast of Tohoku, triggering a catastrophic tsunami reaching heights of 10 m and more in some places and resulting in lots of casualties and destructions. It is one of a handful of catastrophic tsunamis having occurred during the last decade, following the 2004 Indonesian tsunami, and leading to the preparation of tsunami warning systems and evacuation plans all around the world. In the Atlantic Ocean, which has been struck by two certified transoceanic tsunamis over the past centuries (the 1755 "Lisbon" and 1929 Grand Banks events), a warning system is also under discussion, especially for what concerns potential tsunamigenic sources off Iberian Peninsula. In addition, the Lesser Antilles subduction zone is also potentially able to generate powerful megathrust ruptures as the 8 February 1843 Mw ~ 8.0/8.5 earthquake, that could trigger devastating tsunamis propagating across the Northern Atlantic Ocean. The question is in which conditions these tsunamis could be able to reach the Oceanic Islands as well as the eastern shores of the Atlantic Ocean, and what could be the estimated times to react and wave heights to expect? This paper attempts to answer those questions through the use of numerical modelings and recent research results about the Lesser Antilles ability to produce megathrust earthquakes.

scholarly journals Vertical tectonic motions in the Lesser Antilles: linking short- and long-term observations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elenora van Rijsingen ◽  
Eric Calais ◽  
Romain Jolivet ◽  
Jean-Bernard de Chabalier ◽  
Richard Robertson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Historical Earthquakes ◽  
Lesser Antilles ◽  
Accretionary Wedge ◽  
South American ◽  
Slab Geometry ◽  
The North ◽  
Tectonic Erosion ◽  
Interseismic Coupling ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Gps Velocities

<p>Horizontal GPS velocities show that the Lesser Antilles subduction zone is currently experiencing low interseismic coupling, meaning that little to no elastic strain is building up as the North- and South American plates subduct beneath the Caribbean plate. However, geological data on Quaternary coral terraces and active micro-atolls in the central part of the arc reveal slow subsidence over the past 125,000 to 100 years, likely tectonic in origin. It has been proposed that coupling along the subduction interface could be responsible for this geological subsidence. We use forward elastic models with a realistic slab geometry to show that a locked subduction interface would actually produce uplift of the island arc, which contradicts these geological observations. We also show that vertical GPS data in the Lesser Antilles indicates a subsidence of 1-2 mm/yr of the entire arc. This short-term subsidence is in agreement with the ~100-year trend of 1.1 mm/yr subsidence derived from coral micro-atolls in eastern Martinique. Since locking of the subduction interface is inconsistent with this observed subsidence of the arc, we explore other mechanisms that could this observation, such as postseismic effects of historical earthquakes, slab retreat, tectonic erosion, accretionary wedge collapse or extension in the overriding plate. </p>

scholarly journals A maximum rupture model for the central and southern Cascadia subduction zone—reassessing ages for coastal evidence of megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis

2021 ◽  
Vol 261 ◽  
pp. 106922
Author(s):  
Alan R. Nelson ◽  
Christopher B. DuRoss ◽  
Robert C. Witter ◽  
Harvey M. Kelsey ◽  
Simon E. Engelhart ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Subduction Zone ◽  
Cascadia Subduction Zone ◽  
Megathrust Earthquakes ◽  
Rupture Model
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