Seismotectonic Analysis of the 2019–2020 Puerto Rico Sequence: The Value of Absolute Earthquake Relocations in Improved Interpretations of Active Tectonics

We present a new catalog of calibrated earthquake relocations from the 2019–2020 Puerto Rico earthquake sequence related to the 7 January 2020 Mw 6.4 earthquake that occurred offshore of southwest Puerto Rico at a depth of 15.9 km. Utilizing these relocated earthquakes and associated moment tensor solutions, we can delineate several distinct fault systems that were activated during the sequence and show that the Mw 6.4 mainshock may have resulted from positive changes in Coulomb stress from earlier events. Seismicity and mechanisms define (1) a west–southwest (∼260°) zone of seismicity comprised of largely sinistral strike-slip and oblique-slip earthquakes that mostly occurs later in the sequence and to the west of the mainshock, (2) an area of extensional faulting that includes the mainshock and occurs largely within the mainshock’s rupture area, and (3) an north–northeast (∼30°)-striking zone of seismicity, consisting primarily of dextral strike-slip events that occurs before and following the mainshock and generally above (shallower than) the normal-faulting events. These linear features intersect within the Mw 6.4 mainshock’s fault plane in southwest Puerto Rico. In addition, we show that earthquake relocations for M 4+ normal-faulting events, when traced along their fault planes, daylight along east–west-trending bathymetric features offshore of southwest Puerto Rico. Correlation of these normal-faulting events with bathymetric features suggests an active fault system that may be a contributor to previously uncharacterized seismic hazards in southwest Puerto Rico.

Geological evidence of an unreported historical Chilean tsunami reveals more frequent inundation

Assessing tsunami hazards commonly relies on historical accounts of past inundations, but such chronicles may be biased by temporal gaps due to historical circumstances. As a possible example, the lack of reports of tsunami inundation from the 1737 south-central Chile earthquake has been attributed to either civil unrest or a small tsunami due to deep fault slip below land. Here we conduct sedimentological and diatom analyses of tidal marsh sediments within the 1737 rupture area and find evidence for a locally-sourced tsunami consistent in age with this event. The evidence is a laterally-extensive sand sheet coincident with abrupt, decimetric subsidence. Coupled dislocation-tsunami models place the causative fault slip mostly offshore rather than below land. Whether associated or not with the 1737 earthquake, our findings reduce the average recurrence interval of tsunami inundation derived from historical records alone, highlighting the importance of combining geological and historical records in tsunami hazard assessment.

Marine forearc structure of eastern Java and its role in the 1994 Java tsunami earthquake

We resolve a previously unrecognized shallow subducting seamount from a re-processed multichannel seismic profile crossing the 1994 Mw 7.8 Java tsunami earthquake rupture area. Seamount subduction occurs where the overriding plate experiences uplift by lateral shortening and vertical thickening. Pronounced back-thrusting at the landward slope of the forearc high and the formation of splay faults branching off the landward flank of the subducting seamount are observed. The location of the seamount in relation to the 1994 earthquake hypocentre and its co-seismic slip model suggests that the seamount acted as a seismic barrier to the up-dip co-seismic rupture propagation of this moderate-size earthquake.

Fracture Areas Quantitative Investigating of Bending–Torsion Fatigued Low-Alloy High-Strength Steel

In this study, the impact of pseudo-random non-proportional bending-torsion fatigue loadings proportion on the fatigue life and the fracture surface topography was analyzed. Investigation was carried out for 24 specimens made of S355J2 steel with 11 different ratios of maximum stresses λ. For these cases, after the fatigue tests, the surface topography measurements were carried out using an optical profilometer, using the focus variation method. Three fracture zones were analyzed for each specimen: (1) total; (2) propagation; (3) rupture, taking into account the root average square height Sq and void volume Vv parameters. The results pointed that ratio of maximum stresses λ is the most influenced on volume surface parameters represented by void volume at a given height Vv, in the rupture area. A new fatigue loading parameter P was used, depending on fatigue life T and ratio of maximum stresses λ, which shows very good correlation in 4th degree type of fit, to void volume Vv parameter for the rupture area.

The Seismogenic Structure of the 2017 Mw 6.9 Milin, Tibet, Earthquake: A Possible Newly Active Fault at the Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis

On 18 November 2017, an Mw 6.9 earthquake occurred in Milin, Tibet, with the epicenter at the top of the Namche Barwa syntaxis. This event did not produce surface ruptures, and its seismogenic structure remains unclear or controversial. Using the locations of the Milin mainshock and aftershocks, locations of regional small earthquakes and focal mechanism solutions from 2007 to 2009, this work analyzed the causative fault and tectonic setting of the Milin earthquake and assessed the regional seismic risk. The results suggest that the seismogenic structure of the Milin earthquake was a secondary fault, the southern branch of the XiXingla fault (XXLF). Within 28 hr after the mainshock, the aftershocks of the Milin event spread northeastward to the secondary north branch fault of the XXLF and the secondary south branch fault of the Palong–Pangxin fault. Across the top of the Namche Barwa syntaxis (Namche Barwa block) and the Chayu block in the southeast, an earthquake dense belt (EDB) has developed. This EDB has similar deep structures beneath the two blocks, in which several northeast-dipping structural planes exit, and different portions of the EDB imply a unified tectonic stress field. Combining these data with the foreshock–mainshock–aftershock data for the 1950 Mw 8.6 Chayu, Tibet, earthquake, we speculate that the structural planes produced by the EDB at depth in the two blocks have already been connected or tended to connect, resulting in a new fault system trending northwest and approximately 280 km long. The 2017 Mw 6.9 Milin earthquake occurred at the northwestern end of this fault system. At present, the development stage, maturity, and fine structure of this new fault system remain unclear but should receive additional attention. Based on its maximum rupture area, this new fault system is capable of generating an Mw 7.7 earthquake in the future.

Seismic and Aseismic Cycle of the Ecuador–Colombia Subduction Zone

The Colombia–Ecuador subduction zone is an exceptional natural laboratory to study the seismic cycle associated with large and great subduction earthquakes. Since the great 1906 Mw = 8.6 Colombia–Ecuador earthquake, four large Mw > 7.5 megathrust earthquakes occurred within the 1906 rupture area, releasing altogether a cumulative seismic moment of ∼35% of the 1906 seismic moment. We take advantage of newly released seismic catalogs and global positioning system (GPS) data at the scale of the Colombia–Ecuador subduction zone to balance the moment deficit that is building up on the megathrust interface during the interseismic period with the seismic and aseismic moments released by transient slip episodes. Assuming a steady-state interseismic loading, we found that the seismic moment released by the 2016 Mw = 7.8 Pedernales earthquake is about half of the moment deficit buildup since 1942, suggesting that the Pedernales segment was mature to host that seismic event and its postseismic afterslip. In the aftermath of the 2016 event, the asperities that broke in 1958 and 1979 both appears to be mature to host a large Mw > 7.5 earthquakes if they break in two individual seismic events, or an Mw∼7.8–8.0 earthquake if they break simultaneously. The analysis of our interseismic-coupling map suggests that the great 1906 Colombia–Ecuador earthquake could have ruptured a segment of 400 km-long bounded by two 80 km wide creeping segments that coincide with the entrance into the subduction of the Carnegie ridge in Ecuador and the Yaquina Graben in Colombia. These creeping segments share similar frictional properties and may both behave as strong seismic barriers able to stop ruptures associated with great events like in 1906. Smaller creeping segments are imaged within the 1906 rupture area and are located at the extremities of the large 1942, 1958, 1979, and 2016 seismic ruptures. Finally, assuming that the frequency–magnitude distribution of megathrust seismicity follows the Gutenberg–Richter law and considering that 50% of the transient slip on the megathrust is aseismic, we found that the maximum magnitude subduction earthquake that can affect this subduction zone has a moment magnitude equivalent to Mw ∼8.8 with a recurrence time of 1,400 years. No similar magnitude event has yet been observed in that region.

Upper Plate Structure and Tsunamigenic Faults near the Kodiak Islands

The Kodiak Islands lie near the southern terminus of the 1964 Great Alaska earthquake rupture area and within the Kodiak subduction zone segment. Both local and trans-Pacific tsunamis were generated during this devastating megathrust event, but the local tsunami source region and the causative faults are poorly understood. We provide an updated view of the tsunami and earthquake hazard for the Kodiak Islands region through tsunami modelling and geophysical data analysis. Through seismic and bathymetric data, we characterize a regionally extensive sea floor lineament related to the Kodiak shelf fault zone, with focused uplift along a 50-km long portion of the newly named Ugak fault as the most likely source of the local Kodiak Islands tsunami in 1964. We present evidence of Holocene motion along the Albatross Banks fault zone, but suggest that this fault did not produce a tsunami in 1964. We relate major structural boundaries to active forearc splay faults, where tectonic uplift is collocated with gravity lineations. Differences in interseismic locking, seismicity-rates, and potential field signatures argue for different stress conditions at depth near presumed segment boundaries. We find that the Kodiak segment boundaries have a clear geophysical expression and are linked to upper plate structure and splay faulting. The tsunamigenic fault hazard is higher for the Kodiak shelf fault zone when compared to the nearby Albatross Banks fault zone, suggesting short travel paths and little tsunami warning time for nearby communities.

Matrix permeability and flow-derived DFN constrain reactivated natural fracture rupture area and stress drop — Marcellus Shale microseismic example

Microseismic events associated with shale reservoir hydraulic fracturing stimulation (HFS) are interpreted to be reactivations of ubiquitous natural fractures (NFs). Despite adoption of discrete fracture network (DFN) models, accounting for NFs in fluid flow within shale reservoirs has remained a challenge. For an explicit account of NFs, this study introduced the use of seismology-based relations linking seismic moment, moment magnitude, fault rupture area, and stress drop. Microseismic data from HFS monitoring of Marcellus Shale horizontal wells had been used to derive planar hydraulic fracture geometry and source properties. The former was integrated with associated well production data found to exhibit transient linear flow. Analytical solutions led to linear flow parameters (LFPs) and system permeability for scenarios depicting flow through infinite and finite conductivity hydraulic fractures. Published core plug permeability was stress-corrected for in-situ conditions to estimate average matrix permeability. For comparison, the burial and thermal history for the study area was used in 1D Darcy-based modeling of steady and episodic expulsion of petroleum to account for geologic timescale persistence of abnormal pore pressure. Both evaluations resulted in matrix permeability in the same picodarcy (pD) range. Coupled with LFPs, reactivated NF surface area for stochastic DFNs was estimated. Subsequently, the aforementioned seismology-based relations were used for determining average stress drops needed to estimate NF rupture area matching flow-based DFN surface areas. Stress drops, comparable to values for tectonic events, were excluded. One of the determined values matched stress drops for HFS operations in past and recent seismological studies. In addition, calculated changes in pore pressure matched estimates in the aforementioned studies. This study unlocked the full potential of microseismic data beyond extraction of planar geometry attributes and stimulated reservoir volume (SRV). Here, microseismic events were explicitly used in the quantitative account of NFs in fluid flow within shale reservoirs.

Variations in Forearc Stress and Changes in Principle Stress Orientations Caused by the 2004–2005 Megathrust Earthquakes in Sumatra, Indonesia

Coseismic changes in principal stress orientation in the northern Sumatra subduction zone due to two giant megathrust earthquakes there in 2004 and 2005 are estimated to investigate the in-situ stress. The two megathrust earthquakes, the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman and the 2005 Nias-Simeulue events, are both among the 11 largest earthquakes ever recorded. Previous studies have shown that these giant earthquakes perturbed the stress field in the Sumatra subduction zone enough to alter the principal stress directions there, and here we investigate whether these changes can be used to better understand spatial variations in stress along the subduction zone. We used 330 previously published focal mechanisms to estimate pre- and post-mainshock principal stress orientations in 3 outer forearc segments and assessed whether orientation differences were resolved and what they imply about the pre- and post-mainshock stress fields. Our results agree with previous studies in establishing that coseismic changes in stress orientation in the forearc are resolvable, and consistent with a low level of stress in the outer Sumatran forearc before the earthquake, with almost all the shear stress on the megathrust relieved in the 2004 and 2005 earthquakes. In this study, we reveal that both the stress orientations and coseismic changes in them exhibit along-strike variations, with a decrease in both the pre-mainshock stress and stress drop found in the rupture area of 2005 relative to that of the 2004 earthquake. The forearc segment between the 2004 and 2005 rupture areas, which coincides with a well-known megathrust rupture barrier beneath the island of Simeulue is observed to have a characteristic signature, with lower shear stress relative to the pre-mainshock stress field and higher shear stress relative to the post-mainshock stress field in the adjacent segments.

Interplay of seismic and a-seismic deformation during the 2020 sequence of Atacama, Chile.

An earthquake sequence occurred in the Atacama region of Chile throughout September 2020. The sequence initiated by a mainshock of magnitude Mw6.9, followed 17 hours later by a Mw6.4 aftershock. The sequence lasted several weeks, during which more than a thousand events larger than Ml 1 occurred, including several larger earthquakes of magnitudes between 5.5 and 6.4. Using a dense network that includes broad-band, strong motion and GPS sites, we study in details the seismic sources of the mainshock and its largest aftershock, the afterslip they generate and their aftershock, shedding light of the spatial temporal evolution of seismic and aseismic slip during the sequence. Dynamic inversions show that the two largest earthquakes are located on the subduction interface and have a stress drop and rupture times which are characteristics of subduction earthquakes. The mainshock and the aftershocks, localised in a 3D velocity model, occur in a narrow region of interseismic coupling (ranging 40%-80%), i.e. between two large highly coupled areas, North and South of the sequence, both ruptured by the great Mw~8.5 1922 megathrust earthquake. High rate GPS data (1 Hz) allow to determine instantaneous coseismic displacements and to infer coseismic slip models, not contaminated by early afterslip. We find that the total slip over 24 hours inferred from precise daily solutions is larger than the sum of the two instantaneous coseismic slip models. Differencing the two models indicates that rapid aseismic slip developed up-dip the mainshock rupture area and down-dip of the largest aftershock. During the 17 hours separating the two earthquakes, micro-seismicity migrated from the mainshock rupture area up-dip towards the epicenter of the Mw6.4 aftershocks and continued to propagate upwards at ~0.7 km/day. The bulk of the afterslip is located up-dip the mainshock and down-dip the largest aftershock, and is accompanied with the migration of seismicity, from the mainshock rupture to the aftershock area, suggesting that this aseismic slip triggered the Mw6.4 aftershock. Unusually large post-seismic slip, equivalent to Mw6.8 developed during three weeks to the North, in low coupling areas located both up-dip and downdip the narrow strip of higher coupling, and possibly connecting to the area of the deep Slow Sleep Event detected in the Copiapo area in 2014. The sequence highlights how seismic and aseismic slip interacted and witness short scale lateral variations of friction properties at the megathrust.