Reassessing global ice volume: uncertainty and structure in sea level records

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fiona D. Hibbert ◽  
Felicity Williams ◽  
Eelco Rohling
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Full Range ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Change Point Analysis ◽  
Last Deglaciation ◽  
Ice Volume ◽  
Global Ice Volume ◽  
Modern Analogue ◽  
The Last Deglaciation

<p>Geologically recorded sea-level variations represent the sum total of all contributing processes, be it known or unknown, and may thus help in finding the full range of future sea-level rise. Significant sea-level-rise contributions from both northern and southern ice sheets are not unprecedented in the geological record and offer a well-constrained range of natural scenarios from intervals during which ice volumes were similar to or smaller than present (i.e., interglacial periods), to intervals during which total ice volume was greater (i.e., glacial periods).</p><p>The last deglaciation is the most recent period of widespread destabilisation and collapse of major continental ice sheets. Records spanning the last deglaciation (as well as the ice volume maxima) are few, fragmentary and seemingly inconsistent (e.g., the timing and magnitude of melt-water pulses), in part due to locational (tectonic and glacio-isostatic) as well as modern analogue considerations (e.g., palaeo-water depth or facies formation depth). We present a new synthesis of sea-level indicators, with particular emphasis on the geological and biological context, as well as the uncertainties of each record. Using this new compilation and the novel application of statistical methods (trans-dimensional change-point analysis, which avoids “overfitting” of noise in the data), we will assess global ice-volume changes, sea-level fluctuations and changes in climate during the last deglaciation. Finally, we discuss the implications of these uncertainties on our ability to constrain past cryosphere changes.</p>

The Barents-Kara Ice Sheet response to the CMIP6-PMIP4 simulations for the LGM climate

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Victor van Aalderen ◽  
Sylvie Charbit ◽  
Christophe Dumas ◽  
Masa Kageyama
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Continuous Model ◽  
Last Deglaciation ◽  
Future Evolution ◽  
West Antarctic ◽  
The Last Deglaciation

<p>Recent observations show an acceleration of the glacier outflow in the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) since the mid-1990s and an increase in calving events. Compared to the 1979-1990 period, mass loss from WAIS has been increased by a factor six between 2009 and 2017. The reduced buttressing effect from ice-shelf breakup may favour the ice flow from outlet glaciers and in turn the sea-level rise with potential noticeable consequences on human societies. However, despite continuous model improvements, large uncertainties are still present on the representation future evolution of the WAIS. The large panel of different results in the projections of the future sea-level rise stands, in part, to our misunderstanding of the process responsible for the marine ice sheet evolution. A possible approach to better constrain these processes, is to investigate past marine ice sheets, such as the Barents-Kara ice sheet (BKIS) at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), which can be considered, to a certain extent, as an analogue of the WAIS. Our objective is to study the processes responsible for the collapse of the BKIS during the last deglaciation. To simulate the evolution of the BKIS, we use the GRISLI ice-sheet model (20 km x 20 km) forced by different CMIP5/PMIP3 and CMIP6/PMIP4 models. We will present the response of the ice sheet to different types of atmospheric and oceanic forcing at the LGM coming from the PMIP models. This study represents a first step before studying more in depth the respective role of each climatic field but also the role of sea level rise coming from other LGM ice sheets in triggering the retreat of the BKIS at the beginning of the last deglaciation and the impacts of the dynamical processes.</p>

scholarly journals Brief communication: On calculating the sea-level contribution in marine ice-sheet models

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 833-840 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heiko Goelzer ◽  
Violaine Coulon ◽  
Frank Pattyn ◽  
Bas de Boer ◽  
Roderik van de Wal
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Ocean Water ◽  
Ice Volume ◽  
Isostatic Adjustment ◽  
The Common

Abstract. Estimating the contribution of marine ice sheets to sea-level rise is complicated by ice grounded below sea level that is replaced by ocean water when melted. The common approach is to only consider the ice volume above floatation, defined as the volume of ice to be removed from an ice column to become afloat. With isostatic adjustment of the bedrock and external sea-level forcing that is not a result of mass changes of the ice sheet under consideration, this approach breaks down, because ice volume above floatation can be modified without actual changes in the sea-level contribution. We discuss a consistent and generalised approach for estimating the sea-level contribution from marine ice sheets.

Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a ‘beyond 4°C world’ in the twenty-first century

2011 ◽  
Vol 369 (1934) ◽  
pp. 161-181 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert J. Nicholls ◽  
Natasha Marinova ◽  
Jason A. Lowe ◽  
Sally Brown ◽  
Pier Vellinga ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Temperature Rise ◽  
Full Range ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
First Century ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
The Impact

The range of future climate-induced sea-level rise remains highly uncertain with continued concern that large increases in the twenty-first century cannot be ruled out. The biggest source of uncertainty is the response of the large ice sheets of Greenland and west Antarctica. Based on our analysis, a pragmatic estimate of sea-level rise by 2100, for a temperature rise of 4°C or more over the same time frame, is between 0.5 m and 2 m—the probability of rises at the high end is judged to be very low, but of unquantifiable probability. However, if realized, an indicative analysis shows that the impact potential is severe, with the real risk of the forced displacement of up to 187 million people over the century (up to 2.4% of global population). This is potentially avoidable by widespread upgrade of protection, albeit rather costly with up to 0.02 per cent of global domestic product needed, and much higher in certain nations. The likelihood of protection being successfully implemented varies between regions, and is lowest in small islands, Africa and parts of Asia, and hence these regions are the most likely to see coastal abandonment. To respond to these challenges, a multi-track approach is required, which would also be appropriate if a temperature rise of less than 4°C was expected. Firstly, we should monitor sea level to detect any significant accelerations in the rate of rise in a timely manner. Secondly, we need to improve our understanding of the climate-induced processes that could contribute to rapid sea-level rise, especially the role of the two major ice sheets, to produce better models that quantify the likely future rise more precisely. Finally, responses need to be carefully considered via a combination of climate mitigation to reduce the rise and adaptation for the residual rise in sea level. In particular, long-term strategic adaptation plans for the full range of possible sea-level rise (and other change) need to be widely developed.

scholarly journals Late glacial to early Holocene development of southern Kattegat

1969 ◽  
Vol 28 ◽  
pp. 21-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carina Bendixen ◽  
Jørn Bo Jensen ◽  
Ole Bennike ◽  
Lars Ole Boldreel
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Late Glacial ◽  
Last Deglaciation ◽  
Isostatic Rebound ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
Tectonically Active ◽  
The Last Deglaciation ◽  
The Øresund Region

The Kattegat region is located in the wrench zone between the Fennoscandian shield and the Danish Basin that has repeatedly been tectonically active. The latest ice advances during the Quaternary in the southern part of Kattegat were from the north-east, east and south-east (Larsen et al. 2009). The last deglaciation took place at c. 18 to 17 ka BP (Lagerlund & Houmark-Nielsen 1993; Houmark-Nielsen et al. 2012) and was followed by inundation of the sea that formed a palaeo-Kattegat (Conradsen 1995) with a sea level that was relatively high because of glacio-isostatic depression. Around 17 ka BP, the ice margin retreated to the Øresund region and meltwater from the retreating ice drained into Kattegat. Over the next millennia, the region was characterised by regression because the isostatic rebound of the crust surpassed the ongoing eustatic sea-level rise, and a regional lowstand followed at the late glacial to Holocene transition (Mörner 1969; Thiede 1987; Lagerlund & Houmark-Nielsen 1993; Jensen et al. 2002a, b).

scholarly journals Cancelation of Deglacial Thermosteric Sea Level Rise by a Barosteric Effect

2020 ◽  
Vol 50 (12) ◽  
pp. 3623-3639
Author(s):  
Geoffrey Gebbie
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Steric Effect ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Steric Effects ◽  
Last Deglaciation ◽  
Effect Analysis ◽  
Height Change ◽  
The Last Deglaciation ◽  
The Last Glacial

AbstractSea level rise over the last deglaciation is dominated by the mass of freshwater added to the oceans by the melting of the great ice sheets. While the steric effect of changing seawater density is secondary over the last 20 000 years, processes connected to deglacial warming, the redistribution of salt, and the pressure load of meltwater all influence sea level rise by more than a meter. Here we develop a diagnostic for steric effects that is valid when oceanic mass is changing. This diagnostic accounts for seawater compression due to the added overlying pressure of glacial meltwater, which is here defined to be a barosteric effect. Analysis of three-dimensional global seawater reconstructions of the last deglaciation indicates that thermosteric height change (1.0–1.5 m) is counteracted by barosteric (−1.9 m) and halosteric (from −0.4 to 0.0 m) effects. The total deglacial steric effect from −0.7 to −1.1 m has the opposite sign of analyses that assume that thermosteric expansion is dominant. Despite the vertical oceanic structure not being well constrained during the Last Glacial Maximum, net seawater contraction appears robust as it occurs in four reconstructions that were produced using different paleoceanographic datasets. Calculations that do not account for changes in ocean pressure give the misleading impression that steric effects enhanced deglacial sea level rise.

scholarly journals GEOCENTRIC MEAN SEA LEVEL FIELDS AT THE GERMAN NORTH SEA AND BALTIC COAST

2018 ◽  
pp. 21
Author(s):  
Jessica Kelln ◽  
Sönke Dangendorf ◽  
Jürgen Jensen ◽  
Justus Patzke ◽  
Wolfgang Niemeier ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Last Deglaciation ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Baltic Coast ◽  
Vertical Land Motion ◽  
Level Information ◽  
The Last Deglaciation ◽  
Global Mean Sea Level

Global mean sea level has risen over the 20th century (Hay et al. 2015; Dangendorf et al. 2017) and under sustained greenhouse gas emissions it is projected to further accelerate throughout the 21st century (Church et al. 2013) with large spatial variations, significantly threatening coastal communities. Locally the effects of geocentric (sometimes also referred to absolute) sea level rise can further be amplified by vertical land motion (VLM) due to natural adjustments of the solid earth to the melting of the large ice-sheets during the last deglaciation (GIA) or local anthropogenic interventions such as groundwater or gas withdrawal (e.g. Santamaría-Gómez et al. 2017). Both, the observed and projected geocentric sea level rise as well as VLM are critically important for coastal planning and engineering, since only their combined effect determines the total threat of coastal flooding at specific locations. Furthermore, due large spatial variability of sea level, information is required not only at isolated tide gauge (TG) locations but also along the coastline stretches in between.

scholarly journals An Ancient Meltwater Pulse Raised Sea Levels by 18 Meters

Eos ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 102 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim Hornyak
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Last Deglaciation ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
The Last Deglaciation ◽  
New Research

Meltwater pulse 1A, a period of rapid sea level rise after the last deglaciation, was powered by melting ice from North America and Scandinavia, according to new research.

scholarly journals Cenozoic global ice-volume and temperature simulations with 1-D ice-sheet models forced by benthic δ18O records

2010 ◽  
Vol 51 (55) ◽  
pp. 23-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. De Boer ◽  
R.S.W. van de Wal ◽  
R. Bintanja ◽  
L.J. Lourens ◽  
E. Tuenter
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Transient Behaviour ◽  
Ice Volume ◽  
The Past ◽  
Global Ice Volume ◽  
Hemisphere Surface

AbstractVariations in global ice volume and temperature over the Cenozoic era have been investigated with a set of one-dimensional (1-D) ice-sheet models. Simulations include three ice sheets representing glaciation in the Northern Hemisphere, i.e. in Eurasia, North America and Greenland, and two separate ice sheets for Antarctic glaciation. The continental mean Northern Hemisphere surface-air temperature has been derived through an inverse procedure from observed benthic δ18O records. These data have yielded a mutually consistent and continuous record of temperature, global ice volume and benthic δ18O over the past 35 Ma. The simple 1-D model shows good agreement with a comprehensive 3-D ice-sheet model for the past 3 Ma. On average, differences are only 1.0˚C for temperature and 6.2 m for sea level. Most notably, over the 35 Ma period, the reconstructed ice volume–temperature sensitivity shows a transition from a climate controlled by Southern Hemisphere ice sheets to one controlled by Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. Although the transient behaviour is important, equilibrium experiments show that the relationship between temperature and sea level is linear and symmetric, providing limited evidence for hysteresis. Furthermore, the results show a good comparison with other simulations of Antarctic ice volume and observed sea level.

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