Defining a cold pool-resolving scale for numerical simulations of convective self-organisation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Romain Fiévet ◽  
Bettina Meyer ◽  
Jan Olaf Haerter
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulations ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Field Studies ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Gust Fronts ◽  
Self Organisation ◽  
The Impact

<p>Spontaneous aggregation of clouds is a puzzling phenomenon observed in field studies [Holloway et al. (2017)] and idealized simulations alike [Held et al. (1993), Bretherton et al. (2005)]. With its relevance to climate sensitivity and extreme events, aggregation continues to be heavily studied, [Wing et al., 2017 for a review], with radiative-convective feedbacks emerging as main drivers of simulated convective self-aggregation (CSA) [Mueller & Bony (2015)].</p><p>In state-of-the art cloud-resolving models, CSA finds itself consistently hampered by finer horizontal resolutions [Muller & Held (2012), Yanase et al. (2020)]. This feature was ascribed to the effect of cold pool (CP) gust fronts in opposing the positive moisture feedback underlying CSA [Jeevanjee & Romps (2013)]. In contrast, recent numerical experiments [Haerter et al. (2020)] with diurnally oscillating surface temperature highlights an orthogonal effect: stronger CPs, driven by small-scale density gradients, promote cloud field self-organization into mesoscale convective systems (MCS). Interestingly, this upscale growth, which we here term diurnal self-organisation (DSO), differs from classical CSA as it is driven by CPs rather than large-scale radiative imbalances. In stark contrast to CSA, strengthening CPs promotes this organization effect.</p><p>Hence, numerical simulations of CSA and DSO should go beyond the typical cloud-resolving paradigm and achieve cold pool-resolving capabilities. The current study systematically examines the impact of model resolution on CP effects. First, numerical convergence is probed in a 12km x 20km laterally periodic domain where a single CP propagates and self-collides at the domain's edges. As the spatial resolution is stepwise increased from 250 to 25m, it is shown that the initially coarsely resolved density current dissipates and collision and updraft effects are weak. As finer resolution is approached, we identify a cold pool resolving resolution D, which is deemed satisfactory for propagation and collision properties. Second, convergence for a (250km)2 domain under a diurnal radiative cycle is assessed at various spatial resolutions, including the scale D. This mesoscale configuration allows us to quantify the impact of resolution of cold pool dynamics on DSO.</p><p>Together, this work systematically lays out the numerical requirements to study mesoscale clustering by means of explicit numerical simulations.</p>

The Impact of Large-Scale Forcing on Skill of Simulated Convective Initiation and Upscale Evolution with Convection-Allowing Grid Spacings in the WRF*

2013 ◽  
Vol 28 (4) ◽  
pp. 994-1018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey D. Duda ◽  
William A. Gallus
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Skill Score ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Illustrative Case ◽  
Convective Initiation ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Object Based ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
The Impact

Abstract A set of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) was simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with 3-km grid spacing to investigate the skill at predicting convective initiation and upscale evolution into an MCS. Precipitation was verified using equitable threat scores (ETSs), the neighborhood-based fractions skill score (FSS), and the Method of Object-Based Diagnostic Evaluation. An illustrative case study more closely examines the strong influence that smaller-scale forcing features had on convective initiation. Initiation errors for the 36 cases were in the south-southwest direction on average, with a mean absolute displacement error of 105 km. No systematic temporal error existed, as the errors were approximately normally distributed. Despite earlier findings that quantitative precipitation forecast skill in convection-parameterizing simulations is a function of the strength of large-scale forcing, this relationship was not present in the present study for convective initiation. However, upscale evolution was better predicted for more strongly forced events according to ETSs and FSSs. For the upscale evolution, the relationship between ETSs and object-based ratings was poor. There was also little correspondence between object-based ratings and the skill at convective initiation. The lack of a relationship between the strength of large-scale forcing and model skill at forecasting initiation is likely due to a combination of factors, including the strong role of small-scale features that exert an influence on initiation, and potential errors in the analyses used to represent observations. The limit of predictability of individual convective storms on a 3-km grid must also be considered.

The diurnal cycle can trigger convective self-aggregation 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gorm Gruner Jensen ◽  
Romain Fiévet ◽  
Jan O. Haerter
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Diurnal Cycle ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Atmospheric Sciences ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Self Aggregation

<p>Convective self-aggregation (CSA) is an established modelling paradigm for large-scale thunderstorm clusters, as they form in mesoscale convective systems, the Madden-JulianOscillation or tropical cyclo-genesis [1]. The onset of CSA is characterized by the spontaneous formation of persistently dry patches with suppressed deep convective rainfall. Recently another type of spatio-temporal pattern formation was observed in simulations where the diurnal cycle was mimicked by a sinusoidally varying surface temperature [2]. This diurnal aggregation (DA) is characterized by clusters of intense rain that correlate negatively from one day to the next. </p><p>Here we demonstrate that the diurnal cycle can also act as a trigger of persistently dry patches resembling the early stages of CSA. When the surface temperature is held constant, CSA has been shown to occur within simulations of coarse horizontal model resolution, but not when the resolution was increased [3]. We show that, when a temporally periodic surface temperature forcing is imposed, persistently convection free patches occur even faster when the spatial resolution is increased. The failure to achieve CSA at high horizontal resolution has so far been attributed to the more pronounced cold pool effects at such resolution. In our simulations these cold pools in fact play a key role in promoting CSA. Our results have implications for the origin of persistent convective organization over continents and the sea — and point a path towards achieving such clustering under realistic conditions.</p><p><br>[1]  Christopher S Bretherton, Peter N Blossey, and Marat Khairoutdinov.  An energy-balance analysisof deep convective self-aggregation above uniform SST.Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 62(12):4273–4292, 2005.<br>[2]  J. O. Haerter, B. Meyer, and S. B. Nissen.  Diurnal self-aggregation.npj Climate and AtmosphericScience, 3:30, 2020.<br>[3]  Caroline  Muller  and  Sandrine  Bony.   What  favors  convective  aggregation  and  why?GeophysicalResearch Letters, 42(13):5626–5634, 2015.  doi:  https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064260.</p>

scholarly journals Sensitivity of GPS tropospheric estimates to mesoscale convective systems in West Africa

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel Nahmani ◽  
Olivier Bock ◽  
Françoise Guichard
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Mesoscale Convective Systems ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Sampled Data ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Temporal Sampling ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Convective Cells

Abstract. This study analyzes the characteristics of GPS tropospheric estimates (Zenith Wet Delays, and gradients, and post-fit phase residuals) during the passage of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) and evaluates their sensitivity to the research-level GPS data processing strategy implemented. Here, we focus on MCS events observed during the monsoon seasons of West Africa. This region is particularly well suited because of the high frequency of occurrence of MCSs in contrasting climatic environments between the Guinean coast and the Sahel. This contrast is well sampled data with the six AMMA GPS stations. Tropospheric estimates for 3-year period (2006–2008), processed with both GAMIT and GIPSY-OASIS software packages, were analyzed and inter-compared. First, the case an MCS which passed over Niamey, Niger, on 11 August 2006, demonstrates a strong impact of the MCS on GPS estimates and post-fit residuals when the GPS signals propagate through convective cells as detected on reflectivity maps from MIT’s C-band Doppler radar. The estimates are also capable of detecting changes in the structure and dynamics of the MCS. The sensitivity is however different depending on the tropospheric modeling approach adopted in the software. With GIPSY-OASIS, the high temporal sampling (5 min) of Zenith Wet Delays and gradients is well suited for detecting the small-scale, short-lived, convective cells, while the post-fit residuals remain quite small. With GAMIT, the lower temporal sampling of the estimated parameters (hourly for Zenith Wet Delays and daily for gradients) is not sufficient to capture the rapid delay variations associated with the passage of the MCS, but the post-fit phase residuals clearly reflect the presence of a strong refractivity anomaly. The results are generalized with a composite analysis of 414 MCS events observed over the 3-year period at the six GPS stations with the GIPSY-OASIS estimates. A systematic peak is found in the Zenith Wet Delays coincident with the cold-pool crossing time associated to the MCSs. The tropospheric gradients are reflecting the path of the MCS propagation (generally from East to West). This study concludes that Zenith Wet Delays, gradients, and post-fit phase residuals provide relevant and complementary information on MCSs passing over or in the vicinity of a GPS station.

scholarly journals Macrophysical, Microphysical, and Radiative Properties of Tropical Mesoscale Convective Systems over Their Life Cycle

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (9) ◽  
pp. 3353-3371 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominique Bouniol ◽  
Rémy Roca ◽  
Thomas Fiolleau ◽  
D. Emmanuel Poan
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Radiative Heating ◽  
Radiative Properties ◽  
Mesoscale Convective Systems ◽  
Cloud Base ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Polar Orbiting Satellite ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are important drivers of the atmospheric large-scale circulation through their associated diabatic heating profile. Taking advantage of recent tracking techniques, this study investigates the evolution of macrophysical, microphysical, and radiative properties over the MCS life cycle by merging geostationary and polar-orbiting satellite data. These observations are performed in three major convective areas: continental West Africa, the adjacent Atlantic Ocean, and the open Indian Ocean. MCS properties are also investigated according to internal subregions (convective, stratiform, and nonprecipitating anvil). Continental MCSs show a specific life cycle, with more intense convection at the beginning. Larger and denser hydrometeors are thus found at higher altitudes, as well as up to the cirriform subregion. Oceanic MCSs have more constant reflectivity values, suggesting a less intense convective updraft, but more persistent intensity. A layer of small crystals is found in all subregions, but with a depth that varies according to the MCS subregion and life cycle. Radiative properties are also examined. It appears that the evolution of large and dense hydrometeors tends to control the evolution of the cloud albedo and the outgoing longwave radiation. The impact of dense hydrometeors, detrained from the convective towers, is also seen in the radiative heating profiles, in particular in the shortwave domain. A dipole of cooling near the cloud top and heating near the cloud base is found in the longwave; this cooling intensifies near the end of the life cycle.

scholarly journals An overview of the SCOUT-AMMA stratospheric aircraft, balloons and sondes campaign in West Africa, August 2006: rationale, roadmap and highlights

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 19713-19781 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Cairo ◽  
J. P. Pommereau ◽  
K. S. Law ◽  
H. Schlager ◽  
A. Garnier ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Chemical Species ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Aerosol Dust ◽  
D 20 ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. A multi-platform field measurement campaign involving aircraft and balloons took place over West Africa between 26 July and 25 August 2006, in the frame of the concomitant AMMA Special Observing Period and SCOUT-O3 African tropical activities. Specifically aiming at sampling the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, the high-altitude research aircraft M55 Geophysica was deployed in Ouagadougou (12.3° N, 1.7° W), Burkina Faso, in conjunction with the German D-20 Falcon, while a series of stratospheric balloon and sonde flights were conducted from Niamey (13.5° N, 2.0° E), Niger. The stratospheric aircraft and balloon flights intended to gather experimental evidence for a better understanding of large scale transport, assessing the effect of lightning on NOx production, and studying the impact of intense mesoscale convective systems on water, aerosol, dust and chemical species in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. The M55 Geophysica carried out five local and four transfer flights between southern Europe and the Sahel and back, while eight stratospheric balloons and twenty-nine sondes were flown from Niamey. These experiments allowed a characterization of the tropopause and lower stratosphere of the region. We provide here an overview of the campaign activities together with a description of the general meteorological situation during the flights and a summary of the observations accomplished.

scholarly journals An introduction to the SCOUT-AMMA stratospheric aircraft, balloons and sondes campaign in West Africa, August 2006: rationale and roadmap

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 2237-2256 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Cairo ◽  
J. P. Pommereau ◽  
K. S. Law ◽  
H. Schlager ◽  
A. Garnier ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Chemical Species ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Aerosol Dust ◽  
D 20 ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. A multi-platform field measurement campaign involving aircraft and balloons took place over West Africa between 26 July and 25 August 2006, in the frame of the concomitant AMMA Special Observing Period and SCOUT-O3 African tropical activities. Specifically aiming at sampling the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, the high-altitude research aircraft M55 Geophysica was deployed in Ouagadougou (12.3° N, 1.7° W), Burkina Faso, in conjunction with the German D-20 Falcon, while a series of stratospheric balloons and sonde flights were conducted from Niamey (13.5° N, 2.0° E), Niger. Altogether, these measurements were intended to provide experimental evidence for a better understanding of large scale transport, assessing the effect of lightning on NOx production, and studying the impact of intense mesoscale convective systems on water, aerosol, dust and chemical species in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. The M55 Geophysica carried out five local and four transfer flights between southern Europe and the Sahel and back, while eight stratospheric balloons and twenty-nine sondes were flown from Niamey. These experiments allowed a characterization of the tropopause and lower stratosphere of the region. The paper provides an overview of SCOUT-AMMA campaign activities together with a description of the meteorology of the African monsoon and the situation prevailing during the flights and a brief summary of the observations accomplished.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of GPS tropospheric estimates to mesoscale convective systems in West Africa

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (14) ◽  
pp. 9541-9561 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel Nahmani ◽  
Olivier Bock ◽  
Françoise Guichard
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Mesoscale Convective Systems ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Temporal Sampling ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Convective Cells

Abstract. This study analyzes the characteristics of GPS tropospheric estimates (zenith wet delays – ZWDs, gradients, and post-fit phase residuals) during the passage of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and evaluates their sensitivity to the research-level GPS data processing strategy implemented. Here, we focus on MCS events observed during the monsoon season of West Africa. This region is particularly well suited for the study of these events due to the high frequency of MCS occurrences in the contrasting climatic environments between the Guinean coast and the Sahel. This contrast is well sampled with data generated by six African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) GPS stations. Tropospheric estimates for a 3-year period (2006–2008), processed with both the GAMIT and GIPSY-OASIS software packages, were analyzed and intercompared. First, the case of a MCS that passed over Niamey, Niger, on 11 August 2006 demonstrates a strong impact of the MCS on GPS estimates and post-fit residuals when the GPS signals propagate through the convective cells as detected on reflectivity maps from the MIT C-band Doppler radar. The estimates are also capable of detecting changes in the structure and dynamics of the MCS. However, the sensitivity is different depending on the tropospheric modeling approach adopted in the software. With GIPSY-OASIS, the high temporal sampling (5 min) of ZWDs and gradients is well suited for detecting the small-scale, short-lived, convective cells, while the post-fit residuals remain quite small. With GAMIT, the lower temporal sampling of the estimated parameters (hourly for ZWDs and daily for gradients) is not sufficient to capture the rapid delay variations associated with the passage of the MCS, but the post-fit phase residuals clearly reflect the presence of a strong refractivity anomaly. The results are generalized with a composite analysis of 414 MCS events observed over the 3-year period at the six GPS stations with the GIPSY-OASIS estimates. A systematic peak is found in the ZWDs coincident with the cold pool crossing time associated with the MCSs. The tropospheric gradients reflect the path of the MCS propagation (generally from east to west). This study concludes that ZWDs, gradients, and post-fit phase residuals provide relevant and complementary information on MCSs passing over or in the vicinity of a GPS station.

scholarly journals Object-based tracking and nowcasting of gust fronts

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jenna Ritvanen ◽  
Seppo Pulkkinen ◽  
Dmitri Moisseev
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Weather Radars ◽  
Multiple Observations ◽  
Spline Curves ◽  
Object Based ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Gust Fronts ◽  
Storm Cells ◽  
Gust Front

<p>Thunderstorm gust fronts threaten human safety and property, especially in industries such as aviation and construction. The ability to predict the precise time and location of gust front arrivals would mitigate risk and reduce damage. </p><p>Existing methods for nowcasting gust front locations are based on detecting the gust fronts from individual Doppler weather radars or scanning lidars. Even though these methods are locally effective, they have so far not been applied to large-scale radar mosaics to generate forecasts that could benefit society at large. To address this gap, an object-based method is proposed for nowcasting gust fronts by any number of ground-based Doppler weather radars.  </p><p>The gust fronts are first detected from the radar measurements and presented as objects consisting of spline curves. Given the one-dimensional geometry of the curves, existing object-based tracking methods, designed for tracking thunderstorms and based on two-dimensional polygons, cannot be applied to the gust front objects. Instead, a tracking method is formulated that matches multiple observations of the same gust front based on the location and length of the curves. The tracking considers possible splitting and merging of the gust front objects. After matching the gust front instances between consecutive timesteps, the location of the gust front is nowcast with a Kalman filter algorithm.  </p><p>The methodology is demonstrated with case studies of gust fronts related to mesoscale convective systems (MCS) in Finland. MCSs occur frequently in Finland during summer and cause significant wind and other storm-related damage. Spatially and temporally accurate forecasting of MCS events would aid preparedness and reduce the risk posed to society. The methodology presented in this work can be used to nowcast the gust front trajectory and thus increase preparedness especially for the wind damage related to MCS events. The methodology can also be combined with existing object-based methods for nowcasting convective storm cells, to create comprehensive hazard forecasting systems for thunderstorms.</p>

scholarly journals The Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E) sounding network: operations, processing and analysis

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 421-434 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. P. Jensen ◽  
T. Toto ◽  
D. Troyan ◽  
P. E. Ciesielski ◽  
D. Holdridge ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Scale Model ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Central Plains ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Convective Clouds ◽  
Quality Checks ◽  
Network Operations ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E) took place during the spring of 2011 centered in north-central Oklahoma, USA. The main goal of this field campaign was to capture the dynamical and microphysical characteristics of precipitating convective systems in the US Central Plains. A major component of the campaign was a six-site radiosonde array designed to capture the large-scale variability of the atmospheric state with the intent of deriving model forcing data sets. Over the course of the 46-day MC3E campaign, a total of 1362 radiosondes were launched from the enhanced sonde network. This manuscript provides details on the instrumentation used as part of the sounding array, the data processing activities including quality checks and humidity bias corrections and an analysis of the impacts of bias correction and algorithm assumptions on the determination of convective levels and indices. It is found that corrections for known radiosonde humidity biases and assumptions regarding the characteristics of the surface convective parcel result in significant differences in the derived values of convective levels and indices in many soundings. In addition, the impact of including the humidity corrections and quality controls on the thermodynamic profiles that are used in the derivation of a large-scale model forcing data set are investigated. The results show a significant impact on the derived large-scale vertical velocity field illustrating the importance of addressing these humidity biases.

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