Super-volcanic eruptions and impacts on hominin evolution

Author(s):  
James Cole ◽  
Rob Hosfield

<p>The impact of super volcanic eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index 7-8+) on human evolution is a topic that has invited much debate and controversy (Ambrose 1998, Petraglia et al. 2007, 2012; Clarkson et al., 2020), and has typically focused on the impacts on human populations within the last 100-200kya (e.g. Groucutt 2020). What is less well understood is whether there is any clear evidence to show how super-volcanic eruptions, and their subsequent impacts on paleo-environments and climates, may have influenced hominin evolution over the last c. 5mya. Previous studies using first and last hominin appearance dates have suggested that orbitally-induced climatic cycles (eccentricity, obliquity and precession) may play a role in hominin speciation events, but that only obliquity shows any significant relationship with extinction events (Grove 2012a). Firth and Cole (2015) subsequently suggested that selected super-eruptions may have acted as critical enhancers to particular orbital forcing events.</p><p> </p><p>This paper revisits the Firth and Cole (2015) study and presents a comparison of super volcanic eruptions against first and last hominin appearance dates; orbitally induced climatic cycles; global temperature (measured using the LR04 Benthic Stack – Lisiecki and Raymo 2005); and broad technological behavioural changes in order to assess to what extent such eruptions may have impacted, either directly or indirectly, on human evolution at different temporal and geographic scales. Such large eruptive events certainly do seem to disrupt climatic conditions for significant periods of time at a generational level (Harris 2008). Where data is fine grained enough, volcanic activity also seems to impact on human population dispersals, through push and pull factors, and drive changes in the behavioural record (e.g. Groucutt 2020). However, at the broad evolutionary scale, volcanic eruptions do not seem to lead to a significant turnover of hominin species (at least in regard to the resolution of the data currently available). Therefore, we suggest that future work should seek to bring these two perspectives of scale together to better understand super volcanoes in terms of the complex interplay of changing local conditions and their impacts on the broader global picture of human evolution.</p><p> </p><p> </p><p>References:</p><p>Ambrose, S.H., 1998. Late Pleistocene human population bottlenecks, volcanic winter, and differentiation of modern humans. Journal of Human Evolution. 34, 623–651.</p><p>Clarkson, C. et al. 2020. Human occupation of northern India spans the Toba super-eruption ~74,000 years ago. Nature Communications 11: 961.</p><p>Firth C.R. and Cole J. 2015: A review of super-volcano eruptions and their impact on hominin evolution. INQUA XIX Congress: Japan, July.</p><p>Groucutt, H. 2020. Volcanism and human prehistory in Arabia. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 402: 107003.</p><p>Harris, B. 2008. The potential impact of super-volcanic eruptions on the Earth’s atmosphere. Weather 63 (8): 221 – 225.</p><p>Petraglia, M.D., et al.,  2007. Middle Paleolithic assemblages from the Indian subcontinent before and after the Toba super-eruption. Science 317, 114–116.</p><p>Petraglia, M.D., Korisettar, R., Pal, J.N., 2012. The Toba volcanic super-eruption of 74,000 years ago: climate change, environments, and evolving humans. Quaternary International. 258, 1–4.</p>

1982 ◽  
Vol 60 (7) ◽  
pp. 1053-1056
Author(s):  
R. E. M. Lees

The impact of toxins on the health of human populations can only be accurately assessed by epidemiologic methods. The investigation of toxin–disease associations in human populations and the accurate interpretation of data are often very difficult because of the existence of multiple confounding variables and the unrepresentativeness of sample or study populations.Factors influencing the deduction of cause and effect relationship rather than simple association are discussed, as is the need for continued development of epidemiological surveillance techniques.


2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (19) ◽  
pp. 9975-9996 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Cassiani ◽  
A. Stohl ◽  
S. Eckhardt

Abstract. Megacities are extreme examples of the continuously growing urbanization of the human population that pose (new) challenges to the environment and human health at a local scale. However, because of their size megacities also have larger-scale effects, and more research is needed to quantify their regional- and global-scale impacts. We performed a study of the characteristics of pollution plumes dispersing from a group of 36 of the world's megacities using the Lagrangian particle model FLEXPART and focusing on black carbon (BC) emissions during the years 2003–2005. BC was selected since it is representative of combustion-related emissions and has a significant role as a short-lived climate forcer. Based on the BC emissions two artificial tracers were modeled: a purely passive tracer and one subject to wet and dry deposition more closely resembling the behavior of a true aerosol. These tracers allowed us to investigate the role of deposition processes in determining the impact of megacities' pollutant plumes. The particles composing the plumes have been sampled in space and time. The time sampling allowed us to investigate the evolution of the plume from its release up to 48 days after emission and to generalize our results for any substance decaying with a timescale sufficiently shorter than the time window of 48 days. The physical characteristics of the time-averaged plume have been investigated, and this showed that, although local conditions are important, overall a city's latitude is the main factor influencing both the local and the regional-to-global dispersion of its pollution. We also repeated the calculations of some of the regional-pollution-potential metrics previously proposed by Lawrence et al. (2007), thus extending their results to a depositing scalar and retaining the evolution in time for all the plumes. Our results agreed well with their previous results despite being obtained using a totally different modeling framework. For the environmental impact on a global scale we focused on the export of mass from the megacities to the sensitive polar regions. We found that the sole city of Saint Petersburg contributes more to the lower-troposphere pollution and deposition in the Arctic than the whole ensemble of Asian megacities. In general this study showed that the pollution of urban origin in the lower troposphere of the Arctic is mainly generated by northern European sources. We also found that the deposition of the modeled artificial BC aerosol in the Antarctic due to megacities is comparable to the emissions of BC generated by local shipping activities. Finally multiplying population and ground level concentration maps, we found that the exposure of human population to megacity pollution occurs mainly inside the city boundaries, and this is especially true if deposition is accounted for. However, some exceptions exist (Beijing, Tianjin, Karachi) where the impact on population outside the city boundary is larger than that inside the city boundary.


Author(s):  
М.Г. Бергер

За полные 17 лет прошедшие после Кармадонской катастрофы научное сообщество не пришло к единому мнению о причинах внезапного схода ледника Колка. В условиях практического забвения режима регулярных наблюдений за состоянием ледников в главных ледниковых очагах гряды вершин Казбек-Тепли-Уалпата восточной части Центрального Кавказа особенно актуально концентрировать инструментальные и камеральные исследования для мониторинга воздействия основных эндогенных и экзогенных факторов на ледники региона, присутствие которых в подготовке Кармадонского события все исследователи единодушны. Среди множества гипотез внезапного схода ледника Колка основными являются три концепции: ударное воздействие обрушившихся висячих масс льда, отрыв ледника сейсмическим воздействием и газодинамический выброс, детально рассмотренные в различных ракурсах. Цель данной статьи обоснование газодинамической взрывоподобной природы выброса ледника Колка из своего ложа на основе анализа результатов изучения других природных, природно-техногенных и техногенных явлений, характеризующихся в той или иной мере принципиально сходными с этой катастрофой особенностями. Используется метод теоретического обоснования невозможности механической абляции ледника за счет гляциальных процессов, логического отрицания причин, связанных с самим ледником, его водным потенциалом или обвальными массами нависающих льдов и аномальных климатических условий. Одновременно с отрицанием гляциологических факторов используется методика аналогий, в качестве которых рассматриваются взрывные или взрывоподобные эксплозивные вулканические извержения и их сейсмическое сопровождение, вулканическое дрожание при извержениях. Теоретическое отрицание гляциально-экзогенной причины выброса ледника и теоретическая модель подготовки, протекания взрывоподобного выброса и транзита ледово-каменной массы позволяют впервые выдвинуть в качестве основного результата газодинамический фактор эндогенного воздействия на ледник напорными флюидами, образующимися за счет остывающего субстрата камеры стратовулкана Казбек. Газодинамическая природа катастрофической пульсации ледника Колка убедительно объясняет все аномальные природные явления, проявившиеся в 2002г. в районе ледника Колка и смежной с ним территории на этапах подготовки, протекания и постпароксизмального завершения катастрофы, взаимосвязь между ними и их связь с катастрофой, открывает большие перспективы для дальнейшего изучения ледника Колка и в области газогляциодинамических исследований. Изложенное позволяет сделать вывод: осторожность в признание столь неординарного результата научным сообществом вызвана крайне редким проявлением взрывоподобных газодинамических выбросов ледников (неординарный результат впервые озвучен как определяющий фактор внезапного выброса ледника Колка), но это вопрос времени In the full 17 years that have passed since the Karmadon disaster, the scientific community has not come to a consensus on the reasons for the sudden collapse of the Kolka glacier. In the conditions of the practical oblivion of the regular monitoring regime of the state of glaciers in the main glacial sources in the ridge of the Kazbek-Tepli-Ulpat peaks in the eastern part of the Central Caucasus, it is especially relevant to concentrate instrumental and desk studies to monitor the impact of the main endogenous and exogenous factors on the glaciers of the region, the presence of which in the preparation of the Karmadon event all researchers are unanimous. Among the many hypotheses of the sudden collapse of the Kolka glacier, the main are three concepts: the impact of collapsing suspended masses of ice, separation of the glacier by seismic impact and gas-dynamic outburst, which were examined in detail from different angles. The purpose of the paper is to substantiate the gas-dynamic explosive nature of the Kolka glacier outburst from its bed based on the analysis of the studies results of other natural, natural-technogenic and technogenic phenomena, characterized in one way or another by fundamentally similar features to this catastrophe. The method of theoretical justification of the impossibility of mechanical ablation of the glacier due to glacial processes, the logical denial of the reasons associated with the glacier itself, its water potential or collapsing masses of overhanging ice and abnormal climatic conditions is used. Along with the negation of glaciological factors, a methodology of analogies is used, which are considered explosive or explosion-like volcanic eruptions and their seismic accompaniment, volcanic tremor during eruptions. The theoretical denial of the glacial-exogenous cause of the glacier outburst and the theoretical model of the preparation, the course of the explosive outburst and the transit of the ice-stone mass make it possible to put forward as a main result for the first time the gas-dynamic factor of the endogenous impact on the glacier with pressure fluids generated by the cooling substrate of the Kazbek stratovolcano chamber. The gas-dynamic nature of the catastrophic pulsation of the Kolka glacier convincingly explains all the anomalous natural phenomena that appeared in 2002 in the region of the Kolka glacier and its adjacent territory at the stages of preparation, course and post-paroxysmal completion of the catastrophe, the relationship between them and their relationship with the catastrophe opens up great prospects for further study of the Kolka glacier and in the field of gas-dynamic research. The foregoing allows us to conclude that caution in recognition of such an extraordinary result by the scientific community is caused by an extremely rare manifestation of explosive gas-dynamic emissions of glaciers (an extraordinary result was first voiced as a determining factor in the sudden ouburst of the Kolka glacier), but this is a matter of time


2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 26351-26400
Author(s):  
M. Cassiani ◽  
A. Stohl ◽  
S. Eckhardt

Abstract. Megacities are extreme examples of the continuously growing urbanization of human population that pose (new) challenges to the environment and human health at a local scale. However, because of their size megacities also have larger-scale effects and more research is needed to quantify their regional and global scale impacts. We performed a study of the characteristics of plumes dispersing from a group of thirty-six of world's megacities using the Lagrangian particle model FLEXPART and focusing on black carbon (BC) emissions during the years 2003–2005. BC was selected since it is representative of combustion-related emissions and it has a significant role as a short-lived climate forcer. Based on the BC emissions two tracers were modeled; a purely passive tracer and one subject to wet and dry deposition. These tracers allowed us to investigate the role of deposition processes in determining the impact of megacities' pollutant plumes. The particles composing the plumes have been sampled in space and time. The time sampling allowed us to investigate the evolution of the plume from its release up to 48 days after emission and to generalize our results for any substance decaying with a time scale sufficiently shorter than the time window of 48 days. The physical characteristics of the time averaged plume have been investigated and this showed that although local conditions are important, overall the latitude of the city is the main factor influencing both the local and the regional-to-global dispersion of the megacities' plumes. We also repeated the calculations of some of the regional-pollution-potential metrics previously proposed by Lawrence et al. (2007), thus extending their results to a depositing scalar and retaining the evolution in time for all the plumes. Noteworthy our results agreed well with the previous results despite being obtained using a totally different modeling framework. For the environmental impact on a global scale we focused on the export of mass from the megacities to the sensitive polar regions. We found that the sole city of Saint Petersburg contributes more to the lower troposphere pollution and deposition in the Arctic than the whole ensemble of Asian megacities. In general this study showed that the pollution of urban origin in the lower troposphere of the Arctic is mainly generated by northern European sources. We also found that the deposition of BC in the Antarctic due to megacities is comparable to the emissions generated by local shipping activities. Finally multiplying population and ground level concentration maps, we found that the exposure of human population to megacities pollution occurs mainly inside the city boundaries and this is especially true if deposition is accounted for. However, some exceptions exist (Beijing, Tianjin, Karachi) where the impact on population outside city boundary is larger than that inside city boundary.


2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 560-568
Author(s):  
Parikshat Singh Manhas

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to study the relationship between tourism and climate change and, hence, to understand the impact of climate change on tourist destinations. Design/methodology/approach A conceptual analysis of secondary data was extracted and analyzed. The framework and policy implications for the study were obtained from online secondary data and by interaction with representatives of a state authority. Findings The findings from the study show that the impact of climate change on tourism is likely to manifest itself in a number of different ways according to local conditions. Climate and weather are connected with tourism and recreational activities. The paper shows the importance of climate for tourism because climate itself is an attraction. Climate and weather are among the most important attributes to influence tourist decision-making. Changing the climate and weather conditions of any destination may affect the tourists’ comfort and travel decisions, and due to the changing demand pattern and tourist flows, tourism businesses and host communities suffer. Cancellation of any trip due to bad weather causes dissatisfaction and those affected may avoid visiting the destination again. Temperature is also one of the most important climate variables in the analysis of tourism demands as it affects comfort. Originality/value This original piece of work suggests that climatic conditions control destination choice and this influences the tourism demands for a given destination.


Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 72 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arianna Valmassoi ◽  
Jimy Dudhia ◽  
Silvana Di Sabatino ◽  
Francesco Pilla

Irrigation is crucial for sustaining agriculture in certain regions; however, there are effects on the local climate. Previous studies discussed that the irrigation signal might depend on the geographical region as well as the synoptic and climatic conditions. The work presented here aims to investigate the mechanisms behind changes in the irrigation impact on the local conditions depending on synoptic changes. Different to previous works, this employs convection-permitting simulations. Irrigation processes are parameterized in three different ways depending on the evaporative loss. The region of focus is in northern Italy (Po Valley), which is of interest for both the soil-atmosphere coupling strength and widely used irrigation. The simulation period is Summer 2015 (May–July), which includes a heatwave month (July) and an average month (June). The results show how irrigation prevented the drying out of the soil layers during the heatwave. This influences the surface flux partition differently, by increasing moisture flux and decreasing the sensible heat flux. In general, the irrigation impact magnitude, with respect to the control simulation, is more than double in July compared to June. This study discusses climate implications for the region, such as the impact of widespread irrigation on the vegetation health, the heatwave feedback mechanism, atmospheric pollution, and human heat discomfort.


2020 ◽  
pp. 50-64
Author(s):  
Kuladeep Kumar Sadevi ◽  
Avlokita Agrawal

With the rise in awareness of energy efficient buildings and adoption of mandatory energy conservation codes across the globe, significant change is being observed in the way the buildings are designed. With the launch of Energy Conservation Building Code (ECBC) in India, climate responsive designs and passive cooling techniques are being explored increasingly in building designs. Of all the building envelope components, roof surface has been identified as the most significant with respect to the heat gain due to the incident solar radiation on buildings, especially in tropical climatic conditions. Since ECBC specifies stringent U-Values for roof assembly, use of insulating materials is becoming popular. Along with insulation, the shading of the roof is also observed to be an important strategy for improving thermal performance of the building, especially in Warm and humid climatic conditions. This study intends to assess the impact of roof shading on building’s energy performance in comparison to that of exposed roof with insulation. A typical office building with specific geometry and schedules has been identified as base case model for this study. This building is simulated using energy modelling software ‘Design Builder’ with base case parameters as prescribed in ECBC. Further, the same building has been simulated parametrically adjusting the amount of roof insulation and roof shading simultaneously. The overall energy consumption and the envelope performance of the top floor are extracted for analysis. The results indicate that the roof shading is an effective passive cooling strategy for both naturally ventilated and air conditioned buildings in Warm and humid climates of India. It is also observed that a fully shaded roof outperforms the insulated roof as per ECBC prescription. Provision of shading over roof reduces the annual energy consumption of building in case of both insulated and uninsulated roofs. However, the impact is higher for uninsulated roofs (U-Value of 3.933 W/m2K), being 4.18% as compared to 0.59% for insulated roofs (U-Value of 0.33 W/m2K).While the general assumption is that roof insulation helps in reducing the energy consumption in tropical buildings, it is observed to be the other way when insulation is provided with roof shading. It is due to restricted heat loss during night.


Author(s):  
S.E. Rudov ◽  
◽  
V.Ya. Shapiro ◽  
O.I. Grigoreva ◽  
I.V. Grigorev ◽  
...  

In the Russian Federation logging operations are traditionally carried out in winter. This is due to the predominance of areas with swamped and water-logged (class III and IV) soils in the forest fund, where work of forestry equipment is difficult, and sometimes impossible in the warm season. The work of logging companies in the forests of the cryolithozone, characterized by a sharply continental climate, with severe frosts in winter, is hampered by the fact that forest machines are not recommended to operate at temperatures below –40 °C due to the high probability of breaking of metal structures and hydraulic system. At the same time, in the warm season, most of the cutting areas on cryosolic soils become difficult to pass for heavy forest machines. It turns out that the convenient period for logging in the forests of the cryolithozone is quite small. This results in the need of work in the so-called off-season period, when the air temperature becomes positive, and the thawing processes of the soil top layer begin. The same applies to the logging companies not operating in the conditions of cryosolic soils, for instance, in the Leningrad, Novgorod, Pskov, Vologda regions, etc. The observed climate warming has led to a significant reduction in the sustained period of winter logging. Frequent temperature transitions around 0 °C in winter, autumn and spring necessitate to work during the off-season too, while cutting areas thaw. In bad seasonal and climatic conditions, which primarily include off-season periods in general and permafrost in particular, it is very difficult to take into account in mathematical models features of soil freezing and thawing and their effect on the destruction nature. The article shows that the development of long-term predictive models of indicators of cyclic interaction between the skidding system and forest soil in adverse climatic conditions of off-season logging operations in order to improve their reliability requires rapid adjustment of the calculated parameters based on the actual experimental data at a given step of the cycles.


2020 ◽  
Vol 46 (3) ◽  
pp. 379-397
Author(s):  
Chunyang Wang

This paper measures the spatial evolution of urban agglomerations to understand be er the impact of high-speed rail (HSR) construction, based on panel data from fi ve major urban agglomerations in China for the period 2004–2015. It is found that there are signi ficant regional diff erences of HSR impacts. The construction of HSR has promoted population and economic diff usion in two advanced urban agglomerations, namely the Yang e River Delta and Pearl River Delta, while promoting population and economic concentration in two relatively less advanced urban agglomerations, e.g. the middle reaches of the Yang e River and Chengdu–Chongqing. In terms of city size, HSR promotes the economic proliferation of large cities and the economic concentration of small and medium-sized cities along its routes. HSR networking has provided a new impetus for restructuring urban spatial systems. Every region should optimize the industrial division with strategic functions of urban agglomeration according to local conditions and accelerate the construction of inter-city intra-regional transport network to maximize the eff ects of high-speed rail across a large regional territory.


Author(s):  
Adrien Oliva ◽  
Raymond Tobler ◽  
Alan Cooper ◽  
Bastien Llamas ◽  
Yassine Souilmi

Abstract The current standard practice for assembling individual genomes involves mapping millions of short DNA sequences (also known as DNA ‘reads’) against a pre-constructed reference genome. Mapping vast amounts of short reads in a timely manner is a computationally challenging task that inevitably produces artefacts, including biases against alleles not found in the reference genome. This reference bias and other mapping artefacts are expected to be exacerbated in ancient DNA (aDNA) studies, which rely on the analysis of low quantities of damaged and very short DNA fragments (~30–80 bp). Nevertheless, the current gold-standard mapping strategies for aDNA studies have effectively remained unchanged for nearly a decade, during which time new software has emerged. In this study, we used simulated aDNA reads from three different human populations to benchmark the performance of 30 distinct mapping strategies implemented across four different read mapping software—BWA-aln, BWA-mem, NovoAlign and Bowtie2—and quantified the impact of reference bias in downstream population genetic analyses. We show that specific NovoAlign, BWA-aln and BWA-mem parameterizations achieve high mapping precision with low levels of reference bias, particularly after filtering out reads with low mapping qualities. However, unbiased NovoAlign results required the use of an IUPAC reference genome. While relevant only to aDNA projects where reference population data are available, the benefit of using an IUPAC reference demonstrates the value of incorporating population genetic information into the aDNA mapping process, echoing recent results based on graph genome representations.


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