scholarly journals Abrupt climate change as rate-dependent cascading tipping point

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johannes Lohmann ◽  
Daniele Castellana ◽  
Peter D. Ditlevsen ◽  
Henk A. Dijkstra
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Significant Delay ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
Rate Dependent ◽  
Alternative State ◽  
Noisy Time Series ◽  
Meridional Overturning

Abstract. We propose a conceptual model comprising a cascade of tipping points as a mechanism for past abrupt climate changes. In the model, changes in a control parameter, which could for instance be related to changes in the atmospheric circulation, induce sequential tipping of sea-ice cover and the ocean's meridional overturning circulation. The ocean component, represented by the well-known Stommel box model, is shown to display so-called rate-induced tipping. Here, an abrupt resurgence of the overturning circulation is induced before a bifurcation point is reached due to the fast rate of change of the sea-ice. During the rate-induced transition, the system is attracted by the stable manifold of a saddle. This results in a significant delay of the tipping if the system spends longer periods of time in the vicinity of the saddle before escaping towards the alternative state of a vigorous overturning circulation. The delay opens up the possibility for an early warning of the impending abrupt transition by detecting the change in linear stability. We propose early warning by estimating properties of the Jacobian from the noisy time series, which are shown to be useful as a generic precursor to detect rate-induced tipping.

scholarly journals Abrupt climate change as a rate-dependent cascading tipping point

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 819-835
Author(s):  
Johannes Lohmann ◽  
Daniele Castellana ◽  
Peter D. Ditlevsen ◽  
Henk A. Dijkstra
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Conceptual Model ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Tipping Points ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
Multi Scale ◽  
Rate Dependent ◽  
Future Global Warming ◽  
Meridional Overturning

Abstract. We propose a conceptual model comprising a cascade of tipping points as a mechanism for past abrupt climate changes. In the model, changes in a control parameter, which could for instance be related to changes in the atmospheric circulation, induce sequential tipping of sea ice cover and the ocean's meridional overturning circulation. The ocean component, represented by the well-known Stommel box model, is shown to display so-called rate-induced tipping. Here, an abrupt resurgence of the overturning circulation is induced before a bifurcation point is reached due to the fast rate of change of the sea ice. Because of the multi-scale nature of the climate system, this type of tipping cascade may also be a risk concerning future global warming. The relatively short timescales involved make it challenging to detect these tipping points from observations. However, with our conceptual model we find that there can be a significant delay in the tipping because the system is attracted by the stable manifold of a saddle during the rate-induced transition before escaping towards the undesired state. This opens up the possibility for an early warning of the impending abrupt transition via detection of the changing linear stability in the vicinity of the saddle. To do so, we propose estimating the Jacobian from the noisy time series. This is shown to be a useful generic precursor to detect rate-induced tipping.

Reduced Stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation due to Wind Stress Feedback during Glacial Times

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (23) ◽  
pp. 6260-6282 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Arzel ◽  
Matthew H. England ◽  
Willem P. Sijp
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Wind Stress ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Nonlinear Dependence ◽  
Upper Ocean ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Meridional Overturning ◽  
The Impact

Abstract A previous study by Mikolajewicz suggested that the wind stress feedback stabilizes the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. This result was obtained under modern climate conditions, for which the presence of the massive continental ice sheets characteristic of glacial times is missing. Here a coupled ocean–atmosphere–sea ice model of intermediate complexity, set up in an idealized spherical sector geometry of the Atlantic basin, is used to show that, under glacial climate conditions, wind stress feedback actually reduces the stability of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC). The analysis reveals that the influence of the wind stress feedback on the glacial MOC response to an external source of freshwater applied at high northern latitudes is controlled by the following two distinct processes: 1) the interactions between the wind field and the sea ice export in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), and 2) the northward Ekman transport in the tropics and upward Ekman pumping in the core of the NH subpolar gyre. The former dominates the response of the coupled system; it delays the recovery of the MOC, and in some cases even stabilizes collapsed MOC states achieved during the hosing period. The latter plays a minor role and mitigates the impact of the former process by reducing the upper-ocean freshening in deep-water formation regions. Hence, the wind stress feedback delays the recovery of the glacial MOC, which is the opposite of what occurs under modern climate conditions. Close to the critical transition threshold beyond which the circulation collapses, the glacial MOC appears to be very sensitive to changes in surface wind stress forcing and exhibits, in the aftermath of the freshwater pulse, a nonlinear dependence upon the wind stress feedback magnitude: a complete and irreversible MOC shutdown occurs only for intermediate wind stress feedback magnitudes. This behavior results from the competitive effects of processes 1 and 2 on the midlatitude upper-ocean salinity during the shutdown phase of the MOC. The mechanisms presented here may be relevant to the large meltwater pulses that punctuated the last glacial period.

scholarly journals Antarctic Sea Ice Control on the Depth of North Atlantic Deep Water

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (9) ◽  
pp. 2537-2551 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louis-Philippe Nadeau ◽  
Raffaele Ferrari ◽  
Malte F. Jansen
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Deep Water ◽  
Formation Rate ◽  
Deep Ocean ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Ice Formation ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
Meridional Overturning

Abstract Changes in deep-ocean circulation and stratification have been argued to contribute to climatic shifts between glacial and interglacial climates by affecting the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. It has been recently proposed that such changes are associated with variations in Antarctic sea ice through two possible mechanisms: an increased latitudinal extent of Antarctic sea ice and an increased rate of Antarctic sea ice formation. Both mechanisms lead to an upward shift of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) above depths where diapycnal mixing is strong (above 2000 m), thus decoupling the AMOC from the abyssal overturning circulation. Here, these two hypotheses are tested using a series of idealized two-basin ocean simulations. To investigate independently the effect of an increased latitudinal ice extent from the effect of an increased ice formation rate, sea ice is parameterized as a latitude strip over which the buoyancy flux is negative. The results suggest that both mechanisms can effectively decouple the two cells of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC), and that their effects are additive. To illustrate the role of Antarctic sea ice in decoupling the AMOC and the abyssal overturning cell, the age of deep-water masses is estimated. An increase in both the sea ice extent and its formation rate yields a dramatic “aging” of deep-water masses if the sea ice is thick and acts as a lid, suppressing air–sea fluxes. The key role of vertical mixing is highlighted by comparing results using different profiles of vertical diffusivity. The implications of an increase in water mass ages for storing carbon in the deep ocean are discussed.

scholarly journals Impacts of three types of solar geoengineering on the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mengdie Xie ◽  
John C. Moore ◽  
Liyun Zhao ◽  
Michael Wolovick ◽  
Helene Muri
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
The North ◽  
Solar Geoengineering ◽  
Meridional Overturning ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract. Climate models simulate lower rates of North Atlantic heat transport under greenhouse gas climates than at present due to a reduction in the strength of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Solar geoengineering whereby surface temperatures are cooled by reduction of incoming shortwave radiation may be expected to ameliorate this effect. We investigate this using six Earth System Models running scenarios from GeoMIP (Geoengineering model intercomparison project) in the cases of: i) reduction in the solar constant, mimicking dimming of the sun; ii) sulfate aerosol injection into the lower equatorial stratosphere; and iii) brightening of the ocean regions mimicking enhancing tropospheric cloud amounts. We find that despite across model differences, AMOC decreases are attributable to reduced air-ocean temperature differences, and reduced September Arctic sea ice extent, with no significant impact from changing surface winds or precipitation-evaporation. Reversing the surface freshening of the North Atlantic overturning regions caused by decreased summer sea ice sea helps to promote AMOC. Comparing the geoengineering types after normalizing them for the differences in top of atmosphere radiative forcing, we find that solar dimming is more effective than either marine cloud brightening or stratospheric aerosol injection.

Deep-water formation and Arctic circulation under sea-ice retreat: a comparison between CMIP6 models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anais Bretones ◽  
Kerim Hestnes Nisancioglu ◽  
Mari Fjalstad Jensen
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Mixed Layer Depth ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
Ice Retreat ◽  
Meridional Overturning ◽  
Sea Ice Edge ◽  
Sea Ice Retreat

<div> <div> <div> <div> <p>While a rapid sea-ice retreat in the Arctic has become ubiquitous, the potential weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning circulation (AMOC), in response to rising greenhouse gases, is still under debate. Although climate models predict a weakening of the AMOC, observations are so far inconclusive. It has been suggested that the strength and vertical extent of the AMOC responds to sea-ice retreat, as deep mixing occurs in open-ocean areas close to the sea-ice edge. Here, we investigate this hypothesis by looking at the Arctic tidional Overturning Circulation (ArMOC) and mixed-layer depth in several CMIP6 models forced with the SSP5- 8.5 scenario. For every models we find a decoupling of the ArMOC with the AMOC: while the AMOC weakens during the 21st century, the ArMOC is enhanced.</p> </div> </div> </div> </div>

Global Meridional Overturning Circulation Inferred From a Data‐Constrained Ocean & Sea‐Ice Model

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (3) ◽  
pp. 1521-1530 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sang‐Ki Lee ◽  
Rick Lumpkin ◽  
Molly O. Baringer ◽  
Christopher S. Meinen ◽  
Marlos Goes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
Meridional Overturning ◽  
Ice Model
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