Predicting social tipping and norm change in controlled experiments

The ability to predict when societies will replace one social norm for another can have significant implications for welfare, especially when norms are detrimental. A popular theory poses that the pressure to conform to social norms creates tipping thresholds which, once passed, propel societies toward an alternative state. Predicting when societies will reach a tipping threshold, however, has been a major challenge because of the lack of experimental data for evaluating competing models. We present evidence from a large-scale laboratory experiment designed to test the theoretical predictions of a threshold model for social tipping and norm change. In our setting, societal preferences change gradually, forcing individuals to weigh the benefit from deviating from the norm against the cost from not conforming to the behavior of others. We show that the model correctly predicts in 96% of instances when a society will succeed or fail to abandon a detrimental norm. Strikingly, we observe widespread persistence of detrimental norms even when individuals determine the cost for nonconformity themselves as they set the latter too high. Interventions that facilitate a common understanding of the benefits from change help most societies abandon detrimental norms. We also show that instigators of change tend to be more risk tolerant and to dislike conformity more. Our findings demonstrate the value of threshold models for understanding social tipping in a broad range of social settings and for designing policies to promote welfare.

Abrupt climate change as rate-dependent cascading tipping point

We propose a conceptual model comprising a cascade of tipping points as a mechanism for past abrupt climate changes. In the model, changes in a control parameter, which could for instance be related to changes in the atmospheric circulation, induce sequential tipping of sea-ice cover and the ocean's meridional overturning circulation. The ocean component, represented by the well-known Stommel box model, is shown to display so-called rate-induced tipping. Here, an abrupt resurgence of the overturning circulation is induced before a bifurcation point is reached due to the fast rate of change of the sea-ice. During the rate-induced transition, the system is attracted by the stable manifold of a saddle. This results in a significant delay of the tipping if the system spends longer periods of time in the vicinity of the saddle before escaping towards the alternative state of a vigorous overturning circulation. The delay opens up the possibility for an early warning of the impending abrupt transition by detecting the change in linear stability. We propose early warning by estimating properties of the Jacobian from the noisy time series, which are shown to be useful as a generic precursor to detect rate-induced tipping.

“Islamic State of Khorasan Province” – A Threat to the Central Asian Region

Over the past several years, there has been an influx of immigrants from Central Asian states into the ranks of “Islamic State” (IS) militants in Syria and Iraq. Those who survived after the defeat of the main detachments of terrorists on their return cannot escape the territory of Afghanistan, the northern regions of which are inhabited by related ethnic groups. It is easy to find supporters of radical Islam in Central Asian countries. The weakness of state and public institutions contributes to the politicization of Islam, especially in the periphery. Islamist preachers, skillfully using the mistakes of local authorities, call for the creation of alternative state structures. Most of the former IS fighters do not hide their intentions to return home. They can gain support in the border provinces of Afghanistan, among their comrades-in-arms in the war, and also join some of the Taliban groups. The planned withdrawal of American troops and their allies from Afghanistan does not yet imply the coming of peace in the region. Therefore, among the main threats to the security of the region are the activities of transnational terrorist groups such as “The Islamic State of Khorasan Province”, “The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan” and “The Islamic Movement of Eastern Turkestan”.

Nigerian Pentecostalism, Alternative State, and the Question of Accountability

The debate on the status of the Nigerian state has been controversial, but it portends more towards a failing state, because it has low to very low levels of state capacity. Most state institutions do not have the capacity to inspire socio-economic confidence in the citizenry. Coupled with prevailing insecurity and the inability of the state to address it, many people find an alternative source of hope and confidence within Christianity, and particularly an African Pentecostal state-like formation that makes its leadership a multinational and cross-regional political leadership of a sort. While the political leadership of the failing state would be examined as the main cause for thriving Pentecostalism, there remains the question of accountability on both sides of the spectrum; especially as both concern the same citizenship, whom I will argue are cheated both ways, and yet somehow hold ambivalent attitudes towards accountability. Since there is little attention devoted to demand for accountability at both state and alternative state levels, this paper will do a contrastive analysis of both leaderships and show that the issue of accountability remains unresolved at both ends.

Families of the Alternative State — Transitions Actions Networks: Procedures and Algorithms

Исследуются системы, функционирующие таким образом, что в различных условиях это функционирование может быть представлено альтернативными сетями операций. Сети альтернируются в зависимости от условий функционирования. С использованием таких сетей исследуется новый вид свойств систем.

kRadar++: Coarse-to-Fine FMCW Scanning Radar Localisation

This paper presents a novel two-stage system which integrates topological localisation candidates from a radar-only place recognition system with precise pose estimation using spectral landmark-based techniques. We prove that the—recently available—seminal radar place recognition (RPR) and scan matching sub-systems are complementary in a style reminiscent of the mapping and localisation systems underpinning visual teach-and-repeat (VTR) systems which have been exhibited robustly in the last decade. Offline experiments are conducted on the most extensive radar-focused urban autonomy dataset available to the community with performance comparing favourably with and even rivalling alternative state-of-the-art radar localisation systems. Specifically, we show the long-term durability of the approach and of the sensing technology itself to autonomous navigation. We suggest a range of sensible methods of tuning the system, all of which are suitable for online operation. For both tuning regimes, we achieve, over the course of a month of localisation trials against a single static map, high recalls at high precision, and much reduced variance in erroneous metric pose estimation. As such, this work is a necessary first step towards a radar teach-and-repeat (RTR) system and the enablement of autonomy across extreme changes in appearance or inclement conditions.

STABILIZATION OF SENTINEL-1 SAR TIME-SERIES USING CLIMATE AND FOREST STRUCTURE DATA FOR EARLY TROPICAL DEFORESTATION DETECTION

In this study we analyse the factors of variability of Sentinel-1 C-band radar backscattering over tropical rainforests, and propose a method to reduce the effects of this variability on deforestation detection algorithms. To do so, we developed a random forest regression model that relates Sentinel-1 gamma nought values with local climatological data and forest structure information. The model was trained using long time-series of 26 relevant variables, sampled over 6 undisturbed tropical forests areas. The resulting model explained 71.64% and 73.28% of the SAR signal variability for VV and VH polarizations, respectively. Once the best model for every polarization was selected, it was used to stabilize extracted pixel-level data of forested and non-deforested areas, which resulted on a 10 to 14% reduction of time-series variability, in terms of standard deviation. Then a statistically robust deforestation detection algorithm was applied to the stabilized time-series. The results show that the proposed method reduced the rate of false positives on both polarizations, especially on VV (from 21% to 2%, α=0.01). Meanwhile, the omission errors increased on both polarizations (from 27% to 37% in VV and from 27% to 33% on VV, α=0.01). The proposed method yielded slightly better results when compared with an alternative state-of-the-art approach (spatial normalization).

Experimental Investigation on Small-Strain Stiffness of Marine Silty Sand

The significance of small-strain stiffness (Gmax) of saturated composite soils are still of great concern in practice, due to the complex influence of fines on soil fabric. This paper presents an experimental investigation conducted through comprehensive bender element tests on Gmax of marine silty sand. Special attention is paid to the influence of initial effective confining pressure ( σ c 0 ′ ), global void ratio (e) and fines content (FC) on Gmax of a marine silty sand. The results indicate that under otherwise similar conditions, Gmax decreases with decreasing e or FC, but decreases with increasing FC. In addition, the reduction rate of Gmax with e increasing is not sensitive to σ c 0 ′ , but obviously sensitive to changes in FC. The equivalent skeleton void ratio (e*) is introduced as an alternative state index for silty sand with various FC, based on the concept of binary packing material. Remarkably, the Hardin model is modified with the new state index e*, allowing unified characterization of Gmax values for silty sand with various FC, e, and σ c 0 ′ . Independent test data for different silty sand published in the literature calibrate the applicability of this proposed model.

Using individual and common reference points to measure the performance of alternatives in multiple criteria evaluation

When evaluating or ordering alternatives in given multiple criteria, decision makers often use aspiration and reservation levels for criteria, which allows them to define some reference alternatives that build a common framework for the evaluation. In this paper, a new multiple criteria approach called DARP (Distances to Aspiration Reference Points) is presented, which can be implemented in a specific evaluation or ranking problem when many different aspiration levels should be taken into consideration. One example of such problem is measuring sustainable development of countries or states within the Union. In DARP, in order to measure the performance of alternative (state), the notion of distances between alternative and individual or common aspiration reference points is used. To handle the problem of different reference points, a modified max-min normalisation technique is proposed. DARP application for measuring Smart Growth of the EU countries is conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Conformational exchange in the potassium channel blocker ShK

ShK is a 35-residue disulfide-linked polypeptide produced by the sea anemone Stichodactyla helianthus, which blocks the potassium channels Kv1.1 and Kv1.3 with pM affinity. An analogue of ShK has been developed that blocks Kv1.3 > 100 times more potently than Kv1.1, and has completed Phase 1b clinical trials for the treatment of autoimmune diseases such as psoriasis and rheumatoid arthritis. Previous studies have indicated that ShK undergoes a conformational exchange that is critical to its function, but this has proved difficult to characterise. Here, we have used high hydrostatic pressure as a tool to increase the population of the alternative state, which is likely to resemble the active form that binds to the Kv1.3 channel. By following changes in chemical shift with pressure, we have derived the chemical shift values of the low- and high-pressure states, and thus characterised the locations of structural changes. The main difference is in the conformation of the Cys17-Cys32 disulfide, which is likely to affect the positions of the critical Lys22-Tyr23 pair by twisting the 21–24 helix and increasing the solvent exposure of the Lys22 sidechain, as indicated by molecular dynamics simulations.