scholarly journals Multi-model climate impact assessment and intercomparison for three large-scale river basins on three continents

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Vetter ◽  
S. Huang ◽  
V. Aich ◽  
T. Yang ◽  
X. Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Impact Assessment ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Climate Impact Assessment ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Climate change impacts on hydrological processes should be simulated for river basins using validated models and multiple climate scenarios in order to provide reliable results for stakeholders. In the last 10–15 years, climate impact assessment has been performed for many river basins worldwide using different climate scenarios and models. However, their results are hardly comparable, and do not allow one to create a full picture of impacts and uncertainties. Therefore, a systematic intercomparison of impacts is suggested, which should be done for representative regions using state-of-the-art models. Only a few such studies have been available until now with the global-scale hydrological models, and our study is intended as a step in this direction by applying the regional-scale models. The impact assessment presented here was performed for three river basins on three continents: the Rhine in Europe, the Upper Niger in Africa and the Upper Yellow in Asia. For that, climate scenarios from five general circulation models (GCMs) and three hydrological models, HBV, SWIM and VIC, were used. Four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) covering a range of emissions and land-use change projections were included. The objectives were to analyze and compare climate impacts on future river discharge and to evaluate uncertainties from different sources. The results allow one to draw some robust conclusions, but uncertainties are large and shared differently between sources in the studied basins. Robust results in terms of trend direction and slope and changes in seasonal dynamics could be found for the Rhine basin regardless of which hydrological model or forcing GCM is used. For the Niger River, scenarios from climate models are the largest uncertainty source, providing large discrepancies in precipitation, and therefore clear projections are difficult to do. For the Upper Yellow basin, both the hydrological models and climate models contribute to uncertainty in the impacts, though an increase in high flows in the future is a robust outcome ensured by all three hydrological models.

scholarly journals Multi-model climate impact assessment and intercomparison for three large-scale river basins on three continents

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 849-900 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Vetter ◽  
S. Huang ◽  
V. Aich ◽  
T. Yang ◽  
X. Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Water Discharge ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Climate Impact Assessment ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Climate change impacts on hydrological processes should be simulated for river basins using validated models and multiple climate scenarios in order to provide reliable results for stakeholders. In the last 10–15 years climate impact assessment was performed for many river basins worldwide using different climate scenarios and models. Nevertheless, the results are hardly comparable and do not allow to create a full picture of impacts and uncertainties. Therefore, a systematic intercomparison of impacts is suggested, which should be done for representative regions using state-of-the-art models. Our study is intended as a step in this direction. The impact assessment presented here was performed for three river basins on three continents: Rhine in Europe, Upper Niger in Africa and Upper Yellow in Asia. For that, climate scenarios from five GCMs and three hydrological models: HBV, SWIM and VIC, were used. Four "Representative Concentration Pathways" (RCPs) covering a range of emissions and land-use change projections were included. The objectives were to analyze and compare climate impacts on future trends considering three runoff quantiles: Q90, Q50 and Q10 and on seasonal water discharge, and to evaluate uncertainties from different sources. The results allow drawing some robust conclusions, but uncertainties are large and shared differently between sources in the studied basins. The robust results in terms of trend direction and slope and changes in seasonal dynamics could be found for the Rhine basin regardless which hydrological model or forcing GCM is used. For the Niger River scenarios from climate models are the largest uncertainty source, providing large discrepancies in precipitation, and therefore clear projections are difficult to do. For the Upper Yellow basin, both the hydrological models and climate models contribute to uncertainty in the impacts, though an increase in high flows in future is a robust outcome assured by all three hydrological models.

scholarly journals How evaluation of hydrological models influences results of climate impact assessment—an editorial

2020 ◽  
Vol 163 (3) ◽  
pp. 1121-1141
Author(s):  
Valentina Krysanova ◽  
Fred F. Hattermann ◽  
Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz
Keyword(s):  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Model Evaluation ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Calibration And Validation ◽  
Climate Impact Assessment ◽  
Scale Models

AbstractThis paper introduces the Special Issue (SI) “How evaluation of hydrological models influences results of climate impact assessment.” The main objectives were as follows: (a) to test a comprehensive model calibration/validation procedure, consisting of five steps, for regional-scale hydrological models; (b) to evaluate performance of global-scale hydrological models; and (c) to reveal whether the calibration/validation methods and the model evaluation results influence climate impacts in terms of the magnitude of the change signal and the uncertainty range. Here, we shortly describe the river basins and large regions used as case studies; the hydrological models, data, and climate scenarios used in the studies; and the applied approaches for model evaluation and for analysis of projections for the future. After that, we summarize the main findings. The following general conclusions could be drawn. After successful comprehensive calibration and validation, the regional-scale models are more robust and their projections for the future differ from those of the model versions after the conventional calibration and validation. Therefore, climate impacts based on the former models are more trustworthy than those simulated by the latter models. Regarding the global-scale models, using only models with satisfactory or good performance on historical data and weighting them based on model evaluation results is a more reliable approach for impact assessment compared to the ensemble mean approach that is commonly used. The former method provides impact results with higher credibility and reduced spreads in comparison to the latter approach. The studies for this SI were performed in the framework of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP).

scholarly journals How evaluation of global hydrological models can help to improve credibility of river discharge projections under climate change

2020 ◽  
Vol 163 (3) ◽  
pp. 1353-1377 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valentina Krysanova ◽  
Jamal Zaherpour ◽  
Iulii Didovets ◽  
Simon N. Gosling ◽  
Dieter Gerten ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Model Evaluation ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Poor Performance ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Weighted Mean ◽  
Climate Impact Assessment ◽  
Ensemble Mean ◽  
The Mean

AbstractImportance of evaluation of global hydrological models (gHMs) before doing climate impact assessment was underlined in several studies. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of six gHMs in simulating observed discharge for a set of 57 large catchments applying common metrics with thresholds for the monthly and seasonal dynamics and summarize them estimating an aggregated index of model performance for each model in each basin. One model showed a good performance, and other five showed a weak or poor performance in most of the basins. In 15 catchments, evaluation results of all models were poor. The model evaluation was supplemented by climate impact assessment for a subset of 12 representative catchments using (1) usual ensemble mean approach and (2) weighted mean approach based on model performance, and the outcomes were compared. The comparison of impacts in terms of mean monthly and mean annual discharges using two approaches has shown that in four basins, differences were negligible or small, and in eight catchments, differences in mean monthly, mean annual discharge or both were moderate to large. The spreads were notably decreased in most cases when the second method was applied. It can be concluded that for improving credibility of projections, the model evaluation and application of the weighted mean approach could be recommended, especially if the mean monthly (seasonal) impacts are of interest, whereas the ensemble mean approach could be applied for projecting the mean annual changes. The calibration of gHMs could improve their performance and, consequently, the credibility of projections.

scholarly journals The Brewer–Dobson Circulation in a Changing Climate: Impact of the Model Configuration

2013 ◽  
Vol 70 (5) ◽  
pp. 1437-1455 ◽  
Author(s):  
Felix Bunzel ◽  
Hauke Schmidt
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Wave Reflection ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Wave Drag ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Model Configuration ◽  
Underlying Mechanisms ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Most climate models simulate a strengthening of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) under a changing climate. However, the magnitude of the trend as well as the underlying mechanisms varies significantly among the models. In this work the impact of both vertical resolution and vertical extent of a model on the simulated BDC change is investigated by analyzing sensitivity simulations performed with the general circulation model ECHAM6 in three different model configurations for three different climate states. Tropical upwelling velocities and age of stratospheric air are used as measures for the strength of the BDC. Both consistently show a BDC strengthening from the preindustrial to the future climate state for all configurations of the model. However, the amplitude and origin of this change vary between the different setups. Analyses of the tropical upward mass flux indicate that in the model with a lid at 10 hPa the BDC strengthening at 70 hPa is primarily produced by resolved wave drag, while in the model with a higher lid (0.01 hPa) the parameterized wave drag yields the main contribution to the BDC increase. This implies that consistent changes in the BDC originate from different causes when the stratosphere is not sufficiently resolved in a model. Furthermore, the effect of enhancing the horizontal diffusion in the upper model layers to avoid resolved wave reflection at the model lid is quantified, and a possible link to the different behavior of the low-top model with regard to the origin of the BDC change is identified.

scholarly journals Climate impact assessment and “islandness”

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 289-302 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aideen Maria Foley
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Assessment Methods ◽  
Small Island ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Climate Impact Assessment

Purpose Climate data, including historical climate observations and climate model outputs, are often used in climate impact assessments, to explore potential climate futures. However, characteristics often associated with “islandness”, such as smallness, land boundedness and isolation, may mean that climate impact assessment methods applied at broader scales cannot simply be downscaled to island settings. This paper aims to discuss information needs and the limitations of climate models and datasets in the context of small islands and explores how such challenges might be addressed. Design/methodology/approach Reviewing existing literature, this paper explores challenges of islandness in top-down, model-led climate impact assessment and bottom-up, vulnerability-led approaches. It examines how alternative forms of knowledge production can play a role in validating models and in guiding adaptation actions at the local level and highlights decision-making techniques that can support adaptation even when data is uncertain. Findings Small island topography is often too detailed for global or even regional climate models to resolve, but equally, local meteorological station data may be absent or uncertain, particularly in island peripheries. However, rather than viewing the issue as decision-making with big data at the regional/global scale versus with little or no data at the small island scale, a more productive discourse can emerge by conceptualising strategies of decision-making with unconventional types of data. Originality/value This paper provides a critical overview and synthesis of issues relating to climate models, data sets and impact assessment methods as they pertain to islands, which can benefit decision makers and other end-users of climate data in island communities.

scholarly journals Comparing Climate Impact Assessments for Rural Adaptation Planning in Germany and the Netherlands

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 306-320 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juliane Wright ◽  
Johannes Flacke ◽  
Jörg Peter Schmitt ◽  
Jürgen Schultze ◽  
Stefan Greiving
Keyword(s):  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Spatial Information ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Quality Criteria ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Adaptation Planning ◽  
Climate Impact Assessment ◽  
Planning Processes

The consensus nowadays is that there is a need to adapt to increasingly occurring climate impacts by means of adaptation plans. However, only a minority of European cities has an approved climate adaptation plan by now. To support stakeholder dialogue and decision-making processes in climate adaptation planning, a detailed spatial information and evidence base in terms of a climate impact assessment is needed. This article aims to compare the climate impact assessment done in the context of two regional climate change adaptation planning processes in a Dutch and a German region. To do so, a comparison of guidelines and handbooks, methodological approaches, available data, and resulting maps and products is conducted. Similarities and differences between the two approaches with a particular focus on the input and output of such analysis are identified and both processes are assessed using a set of previously defined quality criteria. Both studies apply a similar conceptualisation of climate impacts and focus strongly on issues concerning their visualisation and communication. At the same time, the methods of how climate impacts are calculated and mapped are quite different. The discussion and conclusion section highlights the need to systematically consider climatic and socio-economic changes when carrying out a climate impact assessment, to focus on a strong visualisation of results for different stakeholder groups, and to link the results to planning processes and especially funding opportunities.

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on sediment yield in the Mekong River basin: a case study of the Nam Ou basin, Lao PDR

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Shrestha ◽  
M. S. Babel ◽  
S. Maskey ◽  
A. van Griensven ◽  
S. Uhlenbrook ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sediment Yield ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Sediment Flux ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. This paper evaluates the impact of climate change on sediment yield in the Nam Ou basin located in northern Laos. Future climate (temperature and precipitation) from four general circulation models (GCMs) that are found to perform well in the Mekong region and a regional circulation model (PRECIS) are downscaled using a delta change approach. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to assess future changes in sediment flux attributable to climate change. Results indicate up to 3.0 °C shift in seasonal temperature and 27% (decrease) to 41% (increase) in seasonal precipitation. The largest increase in temperature is observed in the dry season while the largest change in precipitation is observed in the wet season. In general, temperature shows increasing trends but changes in precipitation are not unidirectional and vary depending on the greenhouse gas emission scenarios (GHGES), climate models, prediction period and season. The simulation results show that the changes in annual stream discharges are likely to range from a 17% decrease to 66% increase in the future, which will lead to predicted changes in annual sediment yield ranging from a 27% decrease to about 160% increase. Changes in intra-annual (monthly) discharge as well as sediment yield are even greater (−62 to 105% in discharge and −88 to 243% in sediment yield). A higher discharge and sediment flux are expected during the wet seasons, although the highest relative changes are observed during the dry months. The results indicate high uncertainties in the direction and magnitude of changes of discharge as well as sediment yields due to climate change. As the projected climate change impact on sediment varies remarkably between the different climate models, the uncertainty should be taken into account in both sediment management and climate change adaptation.

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