scholarly journals Impact of climate change on sediment yield in the Mekong River basin: a case study of the Nam Ou basin, Lao PDR

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Shrestha ◽  
M. S. Babel ◽  
S. Maskey ◽  
A. van Griensven ◽  
S. Uhlenbrook ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sediment Yield ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Sediment Flux ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. This paper evaluates the impact of climate change on sediment yield in the Nam Ou basin located in northern Laos. Future climate (temperature and precipitation) from four general circulation models (GCMs) that are found to perform well in the Mekong region and a regional circulation model (PRECIS) are downscaled using a delta change approach. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to assess future changes in sediment flux attributable to climate change. Results indicate up to 3.0 °C shift in seasonal temperature and 27% (decrease) to 41% (increase) in seasonal precipitation. The largest increase in temperature is observed in the dry season while the largest change in precipitation is observed in the wet season. In general, temperature shows increasing trends but changes in precipitation are not unidirectional and vary depending on the greenhouse gas emission scenarios (GHGES), climate models, prediction period and season. The simulation results show that the changes in annual stream discharges are likely to range from a 17% decrease to 66% increase in the future, which will lead to predicted changes in annual sediment yield ranging from a 27% decrease to about 160% increase. Changes in intra-annual (monthly) discharge as well as sediment yield are even greater (−62 to 105% in discharge and −88 to 243% in sediment yield). A higher discharge and sediment flux are expected during the wet seasons, although the highest relative changes are observed during the dry months. The results indicate high uncertainties in the direction and magnitude of changes of discharge as well as sediment yields due to climate change. As the projected climate change impact on sediment varies remarkably between the different climate models, the uncertainty should be taken into account in both sediment management and climate change adaptation.

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on sediment yield in the Mekong River Basin: a case study of the Nam Ou Basin, Lao PDR

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 3339-3384
Author(s):  
B. Shrestha ◽  
M. S. Babel ◽  
S. Maskey ◽  
A. van Griensven ◽  
S. Uhlenbrook ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sediment Yield ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Lao Pdr ◽  
Sediment Flux ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Sediment Yields ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. This paper evaluates the impact of climate change on sediment yield in the Nam Ou Basin located in Northern Laos. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to assess future changes in sediment flux attributable to climate change. Future precipitation and temperature series are constructed through a delta change approach. As per the results, in general, temperature as well as precipitation show increasing trends in both scenarios, A2 and B2. However, monthly precipitation shows both increasing and decreasing trends. The simulation results exhibit that the wet and dry seasonal and annual stream discharges are likely to increase (by up to 15, 17 and 14% under scenario A2; and 11, 5 and 10% under scenario B2 respectively) in the future, which will lead to increased wet and dry seasonal and annual sediment yields (by up to 39, 28 and 36% under scenario A2; and 23, 12 and 22% under scenario B2 respectively). A higher discharge and more sediment flux are expected during the wet seasons, although the changes, percentage-wise, are observed to be higher during the dry months. In conclusion, the sediment yield from the Nam Ou Basin is likely to increase with climate change, which strongly suggests the need for basin-wide sediment management strategies in order to reduce the negative impact of this change.

scholarly journals Investigating the Impact of Climate Change on Future Runoff of River Satluj

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 10-21
Author(s):  
Narayan P Gautam ◽  
Manohar Arora ◽  
N.K. Goel ◽  
A.R.S. Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Climatic Condition ◽  
The Impact

Climate change has been emerging as one of the challenges in the global environment. Information of predicted climatic changes in basin scale is highly useful to know the future climatic condition in the basin that ultimately becomes helpful to carry out planning and management of the water resources available in the basin. Climatic scenario is a plausible and often simplified representation of the future climate, based on an internally consistent set of climatological relationships that has been constructed for explicit use in investigating the potential consequences of anthropogenic climate change. This study based on statistical downscaling, provide good example focusing on predicting the rainfall and runoff patterns, using the coarse general circulation model (GCM) outputs. The outputs of the GCMs are utilized to study the impact of climate change on water resources. The present study has been taken up to identify the climate change scenarios for Satluj river basin, India.Journal of Hydrology and Meteorology, Vol. 8(1) p.10-21

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on drought in the Daklak province

2014 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 5-11
Author(s):  
Khoi Nguyen Dao ◽  
Quang Nguyen Xuan Chau
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Future ◽  
Delta Change ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
The Impact

The main objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of climate change on the meteorological drought in the Daklak province. In this study, the meteorological drought was calculated using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI).From this result, two scensrios fot the precipitation VA1B and B1 were downscaled, from the outputs of 4 GCMs (General Circulation Model): CGCM3.1 (T63), CM2.0, CM2.1, and HadCM3 using the simple downscaling method (delta change method). The impacts of climate change on the droughts were assessed by comparing the present (1980- 2009) and the future droughts (2010-2039, 2040-2069, and 2070-2099).Results of the study suggested that the future temperature would increase by 0.9-2.8ºC and the future precipitation would decrease by 0.4-4.7% for both A1B and B1 scenarios. Under the future climate scenarios, the frequency and severity of extreme drought would increase. The results obtained in this study could be useful for planning and managing water resources at this region.

scholarly journals Impacts of Climate Change on Rainfall Indices Estimation in Some of Subbasins West of Iran

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hadi Nazaripouya
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Intensity Index ◽  
Hamedan Province ◽  
Relative Change ◽  
The Impact

Future projections from climate models and recent studies shows impact of climate change on rainfall indices estimation. This study assesses the simulations of rainfall indices based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project CMIP5 and CMIP3 in the some of subbasin Hamedan Province West of Iran. The analysis of the rainfall indices are: simple rainfall intensity, very heavy rainfall days, maximum one-day rainfall and rainfall frequency has been carried out in this study to evaluating the impact of climate change on rainfall indices events. Relative change in three rainfall indices is investigated by GCMs under various greenhouse gas emission scenarious A1B and B1 and RCP8.5, RCP8.5 scenarios for the future periods 2020–2045 and 2045-2065. The final results show that each of rainfall indices differs in stations under the three GCMs model (GIAOM, MIHR, MPEH5) and emission scenarios A1B and B1, and RCP2.5, RCP8.5 scenarios. Relative change of daily intensity index varies from -9.93% - 25%, very heavy rainfall days 20.71% - 25.9% and yearly rainfall depth -15.71% - 13% can be observed at study area in 50y for future periods (2046–2065). Rainfall indices of sum wet days, nday >1mm and maximum one-day rainfall are projected to decrease under the senariuos B1,A1B and sum wet days, simple daily intensity and heavy Rainfall days>10 projected to decrease under the RCP2.6.

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on Rainfall Indices Estimation in Some of Subbasins West of Iran

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hadi Nazaripouya
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Model Ensembles ◽  
Hamedan Province ◽  
The Impact

Weather and climate extremes affect every facet of society, economies, environments and cultures. Future projections from climate models and recent studies shows impact of climate change on rainfall indices estimation.The purpose of this study is thus to document changes in indices that are calculated in a consistent manner as simulated in the CMIP3 and CMIP5 model ensembles for analyzing impacts of climate change on cachment rainfall indices the some of subbasin Hamedan Province West of Iran. This study assesses the simulations of rainfall indices based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project CMIP5 and CMIP3. The analysis of the rainfall indices are : simple rainfall intensity, very heavy rainfall days , maximum one-day rainfall and rainfall frequency has been carried out in this study to evaluating the impact of climate change on rainfall indices events. Relative change in three rainfall indices is investigated by GCMs under various greenhouse gas emission scenarious A1B and B1 and RCP8.5, RCP8.5 scenarios for the future periods 2020–2045 and 2045-2065. Rainfall indices of sum wet days , nday >1mm and maximum one-day rainfall are projected to decrease under the senariuos B1,A1B and sum wet days , simple daily intensity and heavy Rainfall days>10 projected to decrease under the RCP2.6 .

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Chinese White Pine Beetle Dendroctonus armandi in China

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 544
Author(s):  
Hang Ning ◽  
Ming Tang ◽  
Hui Chen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Central China ◽  
Qinling Mountains ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Precipitation Seasonality ◽  
Suitable Area ◽  
The Impact

Dendroctonus armandi (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytidae) is a bark beetle native to China and is the most destructive forest pest in the Pinus armandii woodlands of central China. Due to ongoing climate warming, D. armandi outbreaks have become more frequent and severe. Here, we used Maxent to model its current and future potential distribution in China. Minimum temperature of the coldest month and precipitation seasonality are the two major factors constraining the current distribution of D. armandi. Currently, the suitable area of D. armandi falls within the Qinling Mountains and Daba Mountains. The total suitable area is 15.83 × 104 km2. Under future climate scenarios, the total suitable area is projected to increase slightly, while remaining within the Qinling Mountains and Daba Mountains. Among the climate scenarios, the distribution expanded the most under the maximum greenhouse gas emission scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5). Under all assumptions, the highly suitable area is expected to increase over time; the increase will occur in southern Shaanxi, northwest Hubei, and northeast Sichuan Provinces. By the 2050s, the highly suitable area is projected to increase by 0.82 × 104 km2. By the 2050s, the suitable climatic niche for D. armandi will increase along the Qinling Mountains and Daba Mountains, posing a major challenge for forest managers. Our findings provide information that can be used to monitor D. armandi populations, host health, and the impact of climate change, shedding light on the effectiveness of management responses.

Structural safety and design under climate change

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pietro Croce ◽  
Paolo Formichi ◽  
Filippo Landi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Structural Safety ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

<p>The impact of climate change on climatic actions could significantly affect, in the mid-term future, the design of new structures as well as the reliability of existing ones designed in accordance to the provisions of present and past codes. Indeed, current climatic loads are defined under the assumption of stationary climate conditions but climate is not stationary and the current accelerated rate of changes imposes to consider its effects.</p><p>Increase of greenhouse gas emissions generally induces a global increase of the average temperature, but at local scale, the consequences of this phenomenon could be much more complex and even apparently not coherent with the global trend of main climatic parameters, like for example, temperature, rainfalls, snowfalls and wind velocity.</p><p>In the paper, a general methodology is presented, aiming to evaluate the impact of climate change on structural design, as the result of variations of characteristic values of the most relevant climatic actions over time. The proposed procedure is based on the analysis of an ensemble of climate projections provided according a medium and a high greenhouse gas emission scenario. Factor of change for extreme value distribution’s parameters and return values are thus estimated in subsequent time windows providing guidance for adaptation of the current definition of structural loads.</p><p>The methodology is illustrated together with the outcomes obtained for snow, wind and thermal actions in Italy. Finally, starting from the estimated changes in extreme value parameters, the influence on the long-term structural reliability can be investigated comparing the resulting time dependent reliability with the reference reliability levels adopted in modern Structural codes.</p>

scholarly journals The Impact of Climate Change on Material Degradation Criteria in Heritage over Iran: Regional Climate Model Evaluation

2020 ◽  
Vol 172 ◽  
pp. 02006
Author(s):  
Hamed Hedayatnia ◽  
Marijke Steeman ◽  
Nathan Van Den Bossche
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Salt Crystallization ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
The Impact

Understanding how climate change accelerates or slows down the process of material deterioration is the first step towards assessing adaptive approaches for the preservation of historical heritage. Analysis of the climate change effects on the degradation risk assessment parameters like salt crystallization cycles is of crucial importance when considering mitigating actions. Due to the vulnerability of cultural heritage in Iran to climate change, the impact of this phenomenon on basic parameters plus variables more critical to building damage like salt crystallization index needs to be analyzed. Regional climate modelling projections can be used to asses the impact of climate change effects on heritage. The output of two different regional climate models, the ALARO-0 model (Ghent University-RMI, Belgium) and the REMO model (HZG-GERICS, Germany), is analyzed to find out which model is more adapted to the region. So the focus of this research is mainly on the evaluation to determine the reliability of both models over the region. For model validation, a comparison between model data and observations was performed in 4 different climate zones for 30 years to find out how reliable these models are in the field of building pathology.

Impact of Climate Change on River Flows in the Black Volta River

2014 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 432-442 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nobuhiko Sawai ◽  
◽  
Kenichiro Kobayashi ◽  
Apip ◽  
Kaoru Takara ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Precipitation Pattern ◽  
Present Climate ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Maximum Rainfall ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

This paper assesses the impact of climate change in the Black Volta River by using data output from the atmospheric general circulation model with a 20-km resolution (AGCM20) through the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI). The Black Volta, which flows mainly in Burkina Faso and Ghana in West Africa, is a major tributary of the Volta River. The basin covers 142,056 km2 and has a semi-arid tropical climate. Before applying AGCM20 output to a rainfall–runoff model, the performance of the AGCM20 rainfall data is investigated by comparing it with the observed rainfall in the Black Volta Basin. To assess the possible impact of rainfall change on river flow, a kinematic wave model, which takes into consideration saturated and unsaturated subsurface soil zones, was performed. The rainfall analysis shows that, the correlation coefficient of the monthly rainfall between the observed rainfall and AGCM20 for the present climate (1979–2004) is 0.977. In addition, the analysis shows that AGCM20 overestimates precipitation during the rainy season and underestimates the dry season for the present climate. The analysis of the AGCM20 output shows the precipitation pattern change in the future (2075–2099). In the future, precipitation is expected to increase by 3%, whereas evaporation and transpiration are expected to increase by 5% and by 8%, respectively. Also, daily maximum rainfall is expected to be 20 mm, or 60%, higher. Thus, the future climate in this region is expected to be more severe. The rainfall–runoff simulation is successfully calibrated at the Bamboi discharge gauging station in the Black Volta fromJune 2000 to December 2000 with 0.72 of the Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency index. The model is applied with AGCM20 outputs for the present climate (1979–2004) and future climate (2075–2099). The results indicate that future discharge will decrease from January to July at the rate of the maximum of 50% and increase fromAugust to December at the rate of the maximumof 20% in the future. Therefore, comprehensive planning for both floods and droughts are urgently needed in this region.

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