Impacts of climate change on growth period and planting boundaries of winter wheat in China under RCP4.5 scenario

Abstract. This paper advances understanding of the impacts of climate change on crops in China by moving from ex-post analysis to forecasting, and by demonstrating how the effects of climate change will affect the growth period and the planting boundaries of winter wheat. Using a multiple regression model based on agricultural meteorological observations and the IPCC AR5 GCMs simulations, we find that the sowing date of winter wheat in the base period, 2040s and 2070s, shows a gradually delayed trend from north to south and the growth period of winter wheat in China will be shortened under climate change. The simulation results also show that (i) the north planting boundaries of winter wheat in China will likely move northward and expand westward in the future, while the south planting boundary will rise and spread in south Hainan and Taiwan; and (ii) the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region will have the largest increases in planting areas in 2040s and 2070s. Our simulation implies that Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia are more sensitive to climate change than other regions in China and priority should be given to design adaptation strategies for winter wheat planting for these provinces.

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Impacts of Climate Change and Varietal Replacement on Winter Wheat Phenology in the North China Plain

International Journal of Plant Production ◽

10.1007/s42106-018-0024-0 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 12 (4) ◽

pp. 251-263 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Zhan-biao Wang ◽

Jing Chen ◽

Wen-jie Tong ◽

Chang-chun Xu ◽

Fu Chen

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Winter Wheat ◽

North China Plain ◽

North China ◽

The North ◽

The North China Plain ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

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Impacts of Climate Change on Winter Wheat Growing Period and Irrigation Water Requirements in the North China Plain

Acta Ecologica Sinica ◽

10.5846/stxb201308052022 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 34 (9) ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

胡玮 HU Wei ◽

严昌荣 YAN Changrong ◽

李迎春 LI Yingchun ◽

刘勤 LIU Qin

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Winter Wheat ◽

Irrigation Water ◽

North China Plain ◽

North China ◽

Water Requirements ◽

Growing Period ◽

The North ◽

The North China Plain ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

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Impacts of climate change on drought risk of winter wheat in the North China Plain

Journal of Integrative Agriculture ◽

10.1016/s2095-3119(20)63273-7 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 20 (10) ◽

pp. 2601-2612

Author(s):

Li ZHANG ◽

Qing-quan CHU ◽

Yu-lin JIANG ◽

Fu CHEN ◽

Yong-deng LEI

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Winter Wheat ◽

North China Plain ◽

North China ◽

Drought Risk ◽

The North ◽

The North China Plain ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

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Adapting to climate change for food security in the Rift Valley dry lands of Ethiopia: supplemental irrigation, plant density and sowing date

The Journal of Agricultural Science ◽

10.1017/s0021859616000897 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 155 (5) ◽

pp. 703-724 ◽

Cited By ~ 15

Author(s):

A. MULUNEH ◽

L. STROOSNIJDER ◽

S. KEESSTRA ◽

B. BIAZIN

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Food Security ◽

Plant Density ◽

Maize Yield ◽

Sowing Date ◽

Supplemental Irrigation ◽

Dry Spells ◽

Negative Impacts ◽

Improve Food Security ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

SUMMARYStudies on climate impacts and related adaptation strategies are becoming increasingly important to counteract the negative impacts of climate change. In Ethiopia, climate change is likely to affect crop yields negatively and therefore food security. However, quantitative evidence is lacking about the ability of farm-level adaptation options to offset the negative impacts of climate change and to improve food security. The MarkSim Global Climate Model weather generator was used to generate projected daily rainfall and temperature data originally taken from the ECHAM5 general circulation model and ensemble mean of six models under high (A2) and low (B1) emission scenarios. The FAO AquaCrop model was validated and subsequently used to predict maize yields and explore three adaptation options: supplemental irrigation (SI), increasing plant density and changing sowing date. The maximum level of maize yield was obtained when the second level of supplemental irrigation (SI2), which is the application of irrigation water when the soil water depletion reached 75% of the total available water in the root zone, is combined with 30 000 plants/ha plant density. It was also found that SI has a marginal effect in good rainfall years but using 94–111 mm of SI can avoid total crop failure in drought years. Hence, SI is a promising option to bridge dry spells and improve food security in the Rift Valley dry lands of Ethiopia. Expected longer dry spells during the shorter rainy season (Belg) in the future are likely to further reduce maize yield. This predicted lower maize production is only partly compensated by the expected increase in CO2 concentration. However, shifting the sowing period of maize from the current Belg season (mostly April or May) to the first month of the longer rainy season (Kiremt) (June) can offset the predicted yield reduction. In general, the present study showed that climate change will occur and, without adaptation, will have negative effects. Use of SI and shifting sowing dates are viable options for adapting to the changes, stabilizing or increasing yield and therefore improving food security for the future.

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Impacts of climate change on agrometeorological indices at winter wheat overwintering stage in northern China during 2021-2050

International Journal of Climatology ◽

10.1002/joc.5764 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 38 (15) ◽

pp. 5576-5588 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Zhixin Hao ◽

Xiu Geng ◽

Fang Wang ◽

Jingyun Zheng

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Winter Wheat ◽

Northern China ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

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Trend Analysis of Temperature and Precipitation Extremes during Winter Wheat Growth Period in the Major Winter Wheat Planting Area of China

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos10050240 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 10 (5) ◽

pp. 240 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Hanjiang Nie ◽

Tianling Qin ◽

Hanbo Yang ◽

Juan Chen ◽

Shan He ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Winter Wheat ◽

Management Practice ◽

Growth Period ◽

The North ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Agronomic Management ◽

Northern Winter ◽

Extreme Precipitation Indices ◽

Precipitation Indices ◽

Extreme Indices

In this study, the major winter wheat planting area of China is selected as the study area, with the time scale of the growth period of winter wheat (a total of 56 growth periods during October 1961 to May 2016). The significance, stability, magnitude of the trend and the average trend of the study area with eight temperature indices and seven precipitation indices of 453 meteorological stations are tested by Mann–Kendall method and Sen’s nonparametric method. The following observation can be made: (1) the cold extreme indices show strong and stable downward trend in most of the stations in the study area, while the hot extreme indices show a strong and stable upward trend, especially in the northern winter wheat planting area and the north of the southern winter wheat planting area. (2) The trends of extreme precipitation indices in most of the sites in the study area are insignificant and unstable. Only in R20mm, a significant and stable decreasing trend is shown in some stations, which is mainly located in the northern winter wheat planting area and part of the central and western regions in the study area. The results in some ways could enrich the references for understanding the climate change in the growth period of winter wheat in the region and help to formulate a better agronomic management practice of winter wheat.

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