scholarly journals A new sub-grid surface mass balance and flux model for continental-scale ice sheet modelling: testing and last glacial cycle

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
pp. 3199-3213 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Le Morzadec ◽  
L. Tarasov ◽  
M. Morlighem ◽  
H. Seroussi

Abstract. To investigate ice sheet evolution over the timescale of a glacial cycle, 3-D ice sheet models (ISMs) are typically run at "coarse" grid resolutions (10–50 km) that do not resolve individual mountains. This will introduce to-date unquantified errors in sub-grid (SG) transport, accumulation and ablation for regions of rough topography. In the past, synthetic hypsometric curves, a statistical summary of the topography, have been used in ISMs to describe the variability of these processes. However, there has yet to be detailed uncertainty analysis of this approach. We develop a new flow line SG model for embedding in coarse resolution models. A 1 km resolution digital elevation model was used to compute the local hypsometric curve for each coarse grid (CG) cell and to determine local parameters to represent the hypsometric bins' slopes and widths. The 1-D mass transport for the SG model is computed with the shallow ice approximation. We test this model against simulations from the 3-D Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) run at 1 km grid resolution. Results show that none of the alternative parameterizations explored were able to adequately capture SG surface mass balance and flux processes. Via glacial cycle ensemble results for North America, we quantify the impact of SG model coupling in an ISM. We show that SG process representation and associated parametric uncertainties, related to the exchange of ice between the SG and CG cells, can have significant (up to 35 m eustatic sea level equivalent for the North American ice complex) impact on modelled ice sheet evolution.

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 3037-3077
Author(s):  
K. Le Morzadec ◽  
L. Tarasov ◽  
M. Morlighem ◽  
H. Seroussi

Abstract. To investigate ice sheet evolution over the time scale of a glacial cycle, 3-D ice sheet models (ISMs) need to be run at grid resolutions (10 to 50 km) that do not resolve individual mountains. This will introduce to-date unquantified errors in sub-grid (SG) transport, accumulation and ablation for regions of rough topography. In the past, synthetic hypsometric curves, a statistical summary of the topography, have been used in ISMs to describe the variability of these processes. However, there has yet to be detailed uncertainty analysis of this approach. We develop a new SG model using a 1 km resolution digital elevation model to compute each local hypsometric curve and to determine local parameters to represent the hypsometric levels' slopes and widths. 1-D mass-transport for the SG model is computed with the shallow ice approximation. We test this model against simulations produced by the 3-D Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) run at 1 km grid resolution. Results show that no simple parameterization can totally capture SG surface mass balance and flux processes. Via glacial cycle ensemble results for North America, we quantify the impact of SG model coupling in an ISM and the associated parametric uncertainties related to the exchange of ice between the SG and coarse grid levels. Via glacial cycle ensemble results for North America, we quantify the impact of SG model coupling in an ISM. We show that SG process representation and associated parametric uncertainties, related to the exchange of ice between the SG and coarse grid levels, can have significant impact on modelled ice sheet evolution.


2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 4555-4577
Author(s):  
Ilkka S. O. Matero ◽  
Lauren J. Gregoire ◽  
Ruza F. Ivanovic

Abstract. Simulating the demise of the Laurentide Ice Sheet covering Hudson Bay in the Early Holocene (10–7 ka) is important for understanding the role of accelerated changes in ice sheet topography and melt in the 8.2 ka event, a century long cooling of the Northern Hemisphere by several degrees. Freshwater released from the ice sheet through a surface mass balance instability (known as the saddle collapse) has been suggested as a major forcing for the 8.2 ka event, but the temporal evolution of this pulse has not been constrained. Dynamical ice loss and marine interactions could have significantly accelerated the ice sheet demise, but simulating such processes requires computationally expensive models that are difficult to configure and are often impractical for simulating past ice sheets. Here, we developed an ice sheet model setup for studying the Laurentide Ice Sheet's Hudson Bay saddle collapse and the associated meltwater pulse in unprecedented detail using the BISICLES ice sheet model, an efficient marine ice sheet model of the latest generation which is capable of refinement to kilometre-scale resolutions and higher-order ice flow physics. The setup draws on previous efforts to model the deglaciation of the North American Ice Sheet for initialising the ice sheet temperature, recent ice sheet reconstructions for developing the topography of the region and ice sheet, and output from a general circulation model for a representation of the climatic forcing. The modelled deglaciation is in agreement with the reconstructed extent of the ice sheet, and the associated meltwater pulse has realistic timing. Furthermore, the peak magnitude of the modelled meltwater equivalent (0.07–0.13 Sv) is compatible with geological estimates of freshwater discharge through the Hudson Strait. The results demonstrate that while improved representations of the glacial dynamics and marine interactions are key for correctly simulating the pattern of Early Holocene ice sheet retreat, surface mass balance introduces by far the most uncertainty. The new model configuration presented here provides future opportunities to quantify the range of plausible amplitudes and durations of a Hudson Bay ice saddle collapse meltwater pulse and its role in forcing the 8.2 ka event.


2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 1453-1477 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Noël ◽  
X. Fettweis ◽  
W. J. van de Berg ◽  
M. R. van den Broeke ◽  
M. Erpicum

Abstract. During recent summers (2007–2012), several surface melt records were broken over the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). The extreme summer melt resulted in part from a persistent negative phase of the North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), favouring warmer than normal conditions over the GrIS. In addition, it has been suggested that significant anomalies in sea ice cover (SIC) and sea surface temperature (SST) may partially explain recent anomalous GrIS surface melt. To assess the impact of 2007–2012 SIC and SST anomalies on GrIS surface mass balance (SMB), a set of sensitivity experiments was carried out with the regional climate model MAR. These simulations suggest that changes in SST and SIC in the seas surrounding Greenland do not significantly impact GrIS SMB, due to the katabatic winds blocking effect. These winds are strong enough to prevent oceanic near-surface air, influenced by SIC and SST variability, from penetrating far inland. Therefore, the ice sheet SMB response is restricted to coastal regions, where katabatic winds are weaker. However, anomalies in SIC and SST could have indirectly affected the surface melt by changing the general circulation in the North Atlantic region, favouring more frequent warm air advection to the GrIS.


2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 575-585 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Rogozhina ◽  
D. Rau

Abstract. This study aims to demonstrate that the spatial and seasonal effects of daily temperature variability in positive degree-day (PDD) models play a decisive role in shaping the modeled surface mass balance (SMB) of continental-scale ice masses. Here we derive monthly fields of daily temperature standard deviation (SD) across Greenland from the ERA-40 (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40 yr Reanalysis) reanalysis spanning from 1958 to 2001 and apply these fields to model recent surface responses of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS). Neither the climate data set analyzed nor in situ measurements taken in Greenland support the range of commonly used spatially and temporally uniform SD values (~ 5 °C). In this region, the SD distribution is highly inhomogeneous and characterized by low values during summer months (~ 1 to 2.5 °C) in areas where most surface melting occurs. As a result, existing SMB parameterizations using uniform, high SD values fail to capture both the spatial pattern and amplitude of the observed surface responses of the GIS. Using realistic SD values enables significant improvements in the modeled regional and total SMB with respect to existing estimates from recent satellite observations and the results of a high-resolution regional model. In addition, this resolves large uncertainties associated with other major parameters of a PDD model, namely degree-day factors. The model appears to be nearly insensitive to the choice of degree-day factors after adopting the realistic SD distribution.


2012 ◽  
Vol 6 (6) ◽  
pp. 1561-1576 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Gillet-Chaulet ◽  
O. Gagliardini ◽  
H. Seddik ◽  
M. Nodet ◽  
G. Durand ◽  
...  

Abstract. Over the last two decades, the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass at an increasing rate, enhancing its contribution to sea-level rise (SLR). The recent increases in ice loss appear to be due to changes in both the surface mass balance of the ice sheet and ice discharge (ice flux to the ocean). Rapid ice flow directly affects the discharge, but also alters ice-sheet geometry and so affects climate and surface mass balance. Present-day ice-sheet models only represent rapid ice flow in an approximate fashion and, as a consequence, have never explicitly addressed the role of ice discharge on the total GrIS mass balance, especially at the scale of individual outlet glaciers. Here, we present a new-generation prognostic ice-sheet model which reproduces the current patterns of rapid ice flow. This requires three essential developments: the complete solution of the full system of equations governing ice deformation; a variable resolution unstructured mesh to resolve outlet glaciers and the use of inverse methods to better constrain poorly known parameters using observations. The modelled ice discharge is in good agreement with observations on the continental scale and for individual outlets. From this initial state, we investigate possible bounds for the next century ice-sheet mass loss. We run sensitivity experiments of the GrIS dynamical response to perturbations in climate and basal lubrication, assuming a fixed position of the marine termini. We find that increasing ablation tends to reduce outflow and thus decreases the ice-sheet imbalance. In our experiments, the GrIS initial mass (im)balance is preserved throughout the whole century in the absence of reinforced forcing, allowing us to estimate a lower bound of 75 mm for the GrIS contribution to SLR by 2100. In one experiment, we show that the current increase in the rate of ice loss can be reproduced and maintained throughout the whole century. However, this requires a very unlikely perturbation of basal lubrication. From this result we are able to estimate an upper bound of 140 mm from dynamics only for the GrIS contribution to SLR by 2100.


2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 181-194 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. L. Edwards ◽  
X. Fettweis ◽  
O. Gagliardini ◽  
F. Gillet-Chaulet ◽  
H. Goelzer ◽  
...  

Abstract. We present a new parameterisation that relates surface mass balance (SMB: the sum of surface accumulation and surface ablation) to changes in surface elevation of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) for the MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional: Fettweis, 2007) regional climate model. The motivation is to dynamically adjust SMB as the GrIS evolves, allowing us to force ice sheet models with SMB simulated by MAR while incorporating the SMB–elevation feedback, without the substantial technical challenges of coupling ice sheet and climate models. This also allows us to assess the effect of elevation feedback uncertainty on the GrIS contribution to sea level, using multiple global climate and ice sheet models, without the need for additional, expensive MAR simulations. We estimate this relationship separately below and above the equilibrium line altitude (ELA, separating negative and positive SMB) and for regions north and south of 77° N, from a set of MAR simulations in which we alter the ice sheet surface elevation. These give four "SMB lapse rates", gradients that relate SMB changes to elevation changes. We assess uncertainties within a Bayesian framework, estimating probability distributions for each gradient from which we present best estimates and credibility intervals (CI) that bound 95% of the probability. Below the ELA our gradient estimates are mostly positive, because SMB usually increases with elevation: 0.56 (95% CI: −0.22 to 1.33) kg m−3 a−1 for the north, and 1.91 (1.03 to 2.61) kg m−3 a−1 for the south. Above the ELA, the gradients are much smaller in magnitude: 0.09 (−0.03 to 0.23) kg m−3 a−1 in the north, and 0.07 (−0.07 to 0.59) kg m−3 a−1 in the south, because SMB can either increase or decrease in response to increased elevation. Our statistically founded approach allows us to make probabilistic assessments for the effect of elevation feedback uncertainty on sea level projections (Edwards et al., 2014).


2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 2281-2301 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johanna Beckmann ◽  
Mahé Perrette ◽  
Sebastian Beyer ◽  
Reinhard Calov ◽  
Matteo Willeit ◽  
...  

Abstract. In recent decades, the Greenland Ice Sheet has experienced an accelerated mass loss, contributing to approximately 25 % of contemporary sea level rise (SLR). This mass loss is caused by increased surface melt over a large area of the ice sheet and by the thinning, retreat and acceleration of numerous Greenland outlet glaciers. The latter is likely connected to enhanced submarine melting that, in turn, can be explained by ocean warming and enhanced subglacial discharge. The mechanisms involved in submarine melting are not yet fully understood and are only simplistically incorporated in some models of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Here, we investigate the response of 12 representative Greenland outlet glaciers to atmospheric and oceanic warming using a coupled line–plume glacier–flow line model resolving one horizontal dimension. The model parameters have been tuned for individual outlet glaciers using present-day observational constraints. We then run the model from present to the year 2100, forcing the model with changes in surface mass balance and surface runoff from simulations with a regional climate model for the RCP8.5 scenario, and applying a linear ocean temperature warming with different rates of changes representing uncertainties in the CMIP5 model experiments for the same climate change scenario. We also use different initial temperature–salinity profiles obtained from direct measurements and from ocean reanalysis data. Using different combinations of submarine melting and calving parameters that reproduce the present-day state of the glaciers, we estimate uncertainties in the contribution to global SLR for individual glaciers. We also perform a sensitivity analysis of the three forcing factors (changes in surface mass balance, ocean temperature and subglacial discharge), which shows that the roles of the different forcing factors are diverse for individual glaciers. We find that changes in ocean temperature and subglacial discharge are of comparable importance for the cumulative contribution of all 12 glaciers to global SLR in the 21st century. The median range of the cumulative contribution to the global SLR for all 12 glaciers is about 18 mm (the glaciers' dynamic response to changes of all three forcing factors). Neglecting changes in ocean temperature and subglacial discharge (which control submarine melt) and investigating the response to changes in surface mass balance only leads to a cumulative contribution of 5 mm SLR. Thus, from the 18 mm we associate roughly 70 % with the glaciers' dynamic response to increased subglacial discharge and ocean temperature and the remaining 30 % (5 mm) to the response to increased surface mass loss. We also find a strong correlation (correlation coefficient 0.74) between present-day grounding line discharge and their future contribution to SLR in 2100. If the contribution of the 12 glaciers is scaled up to the total present-day discharge of Greenland, we estimate the midrange contribution of all Greenland glaciers to 21st-century SLR to be approximately 50 mm. This number adds to SLR derived from a stand-alone ice sheet model (880 mm) that does not resolve outlet glaciers and thus increases SLR by over 50 %. This result confirms earlier studies showing that the response of the outlet glaciers to global warming has to be taken into account to correctly assess the total contribution of Greenland to sea level change.


2013 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 635-674 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. L. Edwards ◽  
X. Fettweis ◽  
O. Gagliardini ◽  
F. Gillet-Chaulet ◽  
H. Goelzer ◽  
...  

Abstract. We present a new parameterisation that relates surface mass balance (SMB: the sum of surface accumulation and surface ablation) to changes in surface elevation of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) for the MAR regional climate model. The motivation is to dynamically adjust SMB as the GrIS evolves, allowing us to force ice sheet models with SMB simulated by MAR while incorporating the SMB–elevation feedback, without the substantial technical challenges of coupling the two models. This also allows us to assess the effect of elevation feedback uncertainty on the GrIS contribution to sea level, using multiple global climate and ice sheet models, without the need for additional, expensive MAR simulations. We estimate this relationship separately below and above the equilibrium line altitude (ELA, separating negative and positive SMB) and for regions north and south of 77° N, from a set of MAR simulations in which we alter the ice sheet surface elevation. These give four "SMB lapse rates", gradients that relate SMB changes to elevation changes. We assess uncertainties within a Bayesian framework, estimating probability distributions for each gradient from which we present best estimates and credibility intervals (CIs) that bound 95% of the probability. Below the ELA our gradient estimates are mostly positive, because SMB usually increases with elevation: 0.54 (95% CI: −0.22 to 1.34) kg m−3 a−1 for the north, and 1.89 (1.03 to 2.61) kg m−3 a−1 for the south. Above the ELA the gradients are much smaller: 0.09 (−0.03 to 0.22) kg m−3 a−1 in the north, and 0.06 (−0.07 to 0.56) kg m−3 a−1 in the south, because SMB can either increase or decrease in response to increased elevation. Our statistically based approach allows us to make probabilistic assessments for the effect of elevation feedback uncertainty on sea level projections. In a companion paper we use the best estimates and upper and lower CI bounds in five ice sheet models, and the full probability distributions in another, to adjust simulated SMB from MAR forced by two global climate models for the SRES A1B scenario (Edwards et al., 2013).


2012 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 2789-2826 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Gillet-Chaulet ◽  
O. Gagliardini ◽  
H. Seddik ◽  
M. Nodet ◽  
G. Durand ◽  
...  

Abstract. Over the last two decades, the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass at an increasing rate, enhancing its contribution to sea-level rise. The recent increases in ice loss appear to be due to changes in both the surface mass balance of the ice sheet and ice discharge (ice flux to the ocean). Rapid ice flow directly affects the discharge, but also alters ice-sheet geometry and so affects climate and surface mass balance. The most usual ice-sheet models only represent rapid ice flow in an approximate fashion and, as a consequence, have never explicitly addressed the role of ice discharge on the total GrIS mass balance, especially at the scale of individual outlet glaciers. Here, we present a new-generation prognostic ice-sheet model which reproduces the current patterns of rapid ice flow. This requires three essential developments: the complete solution of the full system of equations governing ice deformation; an unstructured mesh to usefully resolve outlet glaciers and the use of inverse methods to better constrain poorly known parameters using observations. The modelled ice discharge is in good agreement with observations on the continental scale and for individual outlets. By conducting perturbation experiments, we investigate how current ice loss will endure over the next century. Although we find that increasing ablation tends to reduce outflow and on its own has a stabilising effect, if destabilisation processes maintain themselves over time, current increases in the rate of ice loss are likely to continue.


2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-61 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Beghin ◽  
S. Charbit ◽  
M. Kageyama ◽  
C. Dumas ◽  
C. Ritz

Abstract. During the last glacial period (∼21 000 years ago), two continental-scale ice sheets covered the Canada and northern Europe. It is now widely acknowledged that these past ice sheets exerted a strong influence on climate by causing changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulations. In turn, these changes may have impacted the development of the ice sheets themselves through a combination of different feedback mechanisms. The present study is designed to investigate the potential impact of the North American ice sheet on the surface mass balance (SMB) of the Eurasian ice sheet through simulated changes in the past glacial atmospheric circulation. Using the LMDz5 atmospheric circulation model, we carried out twelve experiments run under constant Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) conditions for insolation, greenhouse gases and ocean. In the all experiments, the Eurasian ice sheet is removed. The twelve experiments differ in the North American ice-sheet topography, ranging from a white and flat (present-day topography) ice sheet to a full-size LGM ice sheet. This experimental design allows to disentangle the albedo and the topographic impacts of the North American ice sheet onto the climate. The results are compared to our baseline experiment where both the North American and the Eurasian ice sheets have been removed. In summer, we show that the only albedo effect of the American ice sheet modifies the pattern of planetary waves with respect to the no-ice sheet case, causing a cooling of the Eurasian region. By contrast, the atmospheric circulation changes induced by the topography of the North American ice sheet imply summer warming in Northwestern Eurasia. In winter, the Scandinavian and the Barents–Kara regions respond differently to the albedo effect: in response to atmospheric circulation changes, Scandinavia is warmed up and precipitation is more abundant whereas Barents–Kara area is cooled down, decreasing convection process and thus leading to less precipitation. The height increase of American ice sheet leads to less precipitation and snowfalls and colder temperatures over both Scandinavian and Barents–Kara sectors. The simulated temperature and precipitation fields have then been used to force an ice-sheet model and to compute the resulting surface mass balance over the Fennoscandian region as a function of the American ice-sheet configuration. It clearly appears that the SMB is dominated by the ablation signal. In response to the summer cooling induced by the American ice-sheet albedo, a highly positive SMB is simulated over the Eurasian ice sheet, leading thus to the growth of the ice sheet. On the contrary, the topography of the American ice sheet leads to more ablation, hence limiting its growth.


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