Climate model uncertainty versus conceptual geological uncertainty in hydrological modeling

Abstract. Projections of climate change impact are associated with a cascade of uncertainties including in CO2 emission scenarios, climate models, downscaling and impact models. The relative importance of the individual uncertainty sources is expected to depend on several factors including the quantity that is projected. In the present study the impacts of climate model uncertainty and geological model uncertainty on hydraulic head, stream flow, travel time and capture zones are evaluated. Six versions of a physically based and distributed hydrological model, each containing a unique interpretation of the geological structure of the model area, are forced by 11 climate model projections. Each projection of future climate is a result of a GCM–RCM model combination (from the ENSEMBLES project) forced by the same CO2 scenario (A1B). The changes from the reference period (1991–2010) to the future period (2081–2100) in projected hydrological variables are evaluated and the effects of geological model and climate model uncertainties are quantified. The results show that uncertainty propagation is context-dependent. While the geological conceptualization is the dominating uncertainty source for projection of travel time and capture zones, the uncertainty due to the climate models is more important for groundwater hydraulic heads and stream flow.

Download Full-text

Climate model uncertainty vs. conceptual geological uncertainty in hydrological modeling

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions ◽

10.5194/hessd-12-4353-2015 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 12 (4) ◽

pp. 4353-4385 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

T. O. Sonnenborg ◽

D. Seifert ◽

J. C. Refsgaard

Keyword(s):

Travel Time ◽

Model Uncertainty ◽

Stream Flow ◽

Climate Models ◽

Hydrological Modeling ◽

Climate Model ◽

Geological Model ◽

Model Combination ◽

Capture Zones ◽

Climate Model Uncertainty

Abstract. Projections of climate change impact are associated with a cascade of uncertainties including CO2 emission scenario, climate model, downscaling and impact model. The relative importance of the individual uncertainty sources is expected to depend on several factors including the quantity that is projected. In the present study the impacts of climate model uncertainty and geological model uncertainty on hydraulic head, stream flow, travel time and capture zones are evaluated. Six versions of a physically based and distributed hydrological model, each containing a unique interpretation of the geological structure of the model area, are forced by 11 climate model projections. Each projection of future climate is a result of a GCM-RCM model combination (from the ENSEMBLES project) forced by the same CO2 scenario (A1B). The changes from the reference period (1991–2010) to the future period (2081–2100) in projected hydrological variables are evaluated and the effects of geological model and climate model uncertainties are quantified. The results show that uncertainty propagation is context dependent. While the geological conceptualization is the dominating uncertainty source for projection of travel time and capture zones, the uncertainty on the climate models is more important for groundwater hydraulic heads and stream flow.

Download Full-text

“Agro-meteorological indices and climate model uncertainty over the UK”

Climatic Change ◽

10.1007/s10584-014-1296-8 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 128 (1-2) ◽

pp. 113-126 ◽

Cited By ~ 12

Author(s):

A. E. Harding ◽

M. Rivington ◽

M. J. Mineter ◽

S. F. B. Tett

Keyword(s):

Model Uncertainty ◽

Climate Model ◽

The Uk ◽

Climate Model Uncertainty

Download Full-text

Variation in the global-scale impacts of climate change on crop productivity due to climate model uncertainty and adaptation

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology ◽

10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.07.006 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 170 ◽

pp. 183-194 ◽

Cited By ~ 93

Author(s):

Tom Osborne ◽

Gillian Rose ◽

Tim Wheeler

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Model Uncertainty ◽

Climate Model ◽

Crop Productivity ◽

Global Scale ◽

Climate Model Uncertainty ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

Download Full-text

Climate model validation and selection for hydrological applications in representative Mediterranean catchments

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions ◽

10.5194/hessd-10-9105-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 10 (7) ◽

pp. 9105-9145 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

R. Deidda ◽

M. Marrocu ◽

G. Caroletti ◽

G. Pusceddu ◽

A. Langousis ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Models ◽

Hydrological Modeling ◽

Climate Model ◽

Epistemic Uncertainty ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Primary Objective ◽

The Mediterranean ◽

Ensembles Project ◽

The Eu

Abstract. This paper discusses the relative performance of several climate models in providing reliable forcing for hydrological modeling in six representative catchments in the Mediterranean region. We consider 14 Regional Climate Models (RCMs), from the EU-FP6 ENSEMBLES project, run for the A1B emission scenario on a common 0.22-degree (about 24 km) rotated grid over Europe and the Mediterranean. In the validation period (1951 to 2010) we consider daily precipitation and surface temperatures from the E-OBS dataset, available from the ENSEMBLES project and the data providers in the ECA&D project. Our primary objective is to rank the 14 RCMs for each catchment and select the four best performing ones to use as common forcing for hydrological models in the six Mediterranean basins considered in the EU-FP7 CLIMB project. Using a common suite of 4 RCMs for all studied catchments reduces the (epistemic) uncertainty when evaluating trends and climate change impacts in the XXI century. We present and discuss the validation setting, as well as the obtained results and, to some detail, the difficulties we experienced when processing the data. In doing so we also provide useful information and hint for an audience of researchers not directly involved in climate modeling, but interested in the use of climate model outputs for hydrological modeling and, more in general, climate change impact studies in the Mediterranean.

Download Full-text

Climate Policies Under Climate Model Uncertainty: Max-Min and Min-Max Regret

SSRN Electronic Journal ◽

10.2139/ssrn.3038678 ◽

2017 ◽

Author(s):

Armon Rezai ◽

Frederick van der Ploeg

Keyword(s):

Model Uncertainty ◽

Climate Model ◽

Climate Policies ◽

Climate Model Uncertainty

Download Full-text

Hydrologic impacts of climate change: Comparisons between hydrological parameter uncertainty and climate model uncertainty

Journal of Hydrology ◽

10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.08.080 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 566 ◽

pp. 1-22 ◽

Cited By ~ 22

Author(s):

Jisha Joseph ◽

Subimal Ghosh ◽

Amey Pathak ◽

A.K. Sahai

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Parameter Uncertainty ◽

Model Uncertainty ◽

Climate Model ◽

Hydrologic Impacts ◽

Hydrological Parameter ◽

Climate Model Uncertainty ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

Download Full-text

Assessing the influence of climate model uncertainty on EU-wide climate change impact indicators

Climatic Change ◽

10.1007/s10584-013-0825-1 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 120 (1-2) ◽

pp. 211-227 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

Tobias Lung ◽

Alessandro Dosio ◽

William Becker ◽

Carlo Lavalle ◽

Laurens M. Bouwer

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Model Uncertainty ◽

Climate Change Impact ◽

Climate Model ◽

Impact Indicators ◽

Change Impact ◽

Climate Model Uncertainty

Download Full-text

Impact of climate change on the stream flow of the lower Brahmaputra: trends in high and low flows based on discharge-weighted ensemble modelling

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-15-1537-2011 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 15 (5) ◽

pp. 1537-1545 ◽

Cited By ~ 68

Author(s):

A. K. Gain ◽

W. W. Immerzeel ◽

F. C. Sperna Weiland ◽

M. F. P. Bierkens

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sea Level ◽

Stream Flow ◽

Climate Models ◽

River Flow ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Low Flow ◽

Strong Increase ◽

Hydrological Models

Abstract. Climate change is likely to have significant effects on the hydrology. The Ganges-Brahmaputra river basin is one of the most vulnerable areas in the world as it is subject to the combined effects of glacier melt, extreme monsoon rainfall and sea level rise. To what extent climate change will impact river flow in the Brahmaputra basin is yet unclear, as climate model studies show ambiguous results. In this study we investigate the effect of climate change on both low and high flows of the lower Brahmaputra. We apply a novel method of discharge-weighted ensemble modeling using model outputs from a global hydrological models forced with 12 different global climate models (GCMs). Our analysis shows that only a limited number of GCMs are required to reconstruct observed discharge. Based on the GCM outputs and long-term records of observed flow at Bahadurabad station, our method results in a multi-model weighted ensemble of transient stream flow for the period 1961–2100. Using the constructed transients, we subsequently project future trends in low and high river flow. The analysis shows that extreme low flow conditions are likely to occur less frequent in the future. However a very strong increase in peak flows is projected, which may, in combination with projected sea level change, have devastating effects for Bangladesh. The methods presented in this study are more widely applicable, in that existing multi-model streamflow simulations from global hydrological models can be weighted against observed streamflow data to assess at first order the effects of climate change for specific river basins.

Download Full-text

Model Uncertainty in Cloud–Circulation Coupling, and Cloud-Radiative Response to Increasing CO2, Linked to Biases in Climatological Circulation

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-17-0665.1 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 31 (24) ◽

pp. 10013-10020

Author(s):

Bernard R. Lipat ◽

Aiko Voigt ◽

George Tselioudis ◽

Lorenzo M. Polvani

Keyword(s):

Model Uncertainty ◽

Large Scale ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Hadley Cell ◽

Temperature Structure ◽

Climatological Circulation

Recent analyses of global climate models suggest that uncertainty in the coupling between midlatitude clouds and the atmospheric circulation contributes to uncertainty in climate sensitivity. However, the reasons behind model differences in the cloud–circulation coupling have remained unclear. Here, we use a global climate model in an idealized aquaplanet setup to show that the Southern Hemisphere climatological circulation, which in many models is biased equatorward, contributes to the model differences in the cloud–circulation coupling. For the same poleward shift of the Hadley cell (HC) edge, models with narrower climatological HCs exhibit stronger midlatitude cloud-induced shortwave warming than models with wider climatological HCs. This cloud-induced radiative warming results predominantly from a subsidence warming that decreases cloud fraction and is stronger for narrower HCs because of a larger meridional gradient in the vertical velocity. A comparison of our aquaplanet results with comprehensive climate models suggests that about half of the model uncertainty in the midlatitude cloud–circulation coupling stems from this impact of the circulation on the large-scale temperature structure of the atmosphere, and thus could be removed by improving the climatological circulation in models. This illustrates how understanding of large-scale dynamics can help reduce uncertainty in clouds and their response to climate change.

Download Full-text