On the semi-diagnostic computation of climatological circulation in the western tropical Indian Ocean

The seasonal mean climatological circulation in the Indian Ocean north of 20°S and west of 80°E during the summer and winter has been investigated using a 3-dimensional, fully non-linear, semi-diagnostic circulation model. The model equations include the basic ocean hydrothermodynamic equations of momentum, hydrostatics, continuity, sea surface topography and temperature and salt transport equations. Model is driven with the seasonal mean data on wind stress at the ocean surface and thermohaline forcing at different levels. The circulation in the upper levels of the ocean at 20, 50, 150, 300, 500 and 1000 m depths during the two contrasting seasons has been obtained using the model, and the role of steady, local forcing of wind and internal density field on the dynamical balance of circulation in the western tropical Indian Ocean is explained. The climatological temperature and salinity data used to drive the model is found to be hydrodynamically adjusted with surface wind, flow field and bottom relief during the adaptation stages. Semi-diagnostic technique is found to be very effective for the smoothening of climatic temperature and salinity data and also to obtain the 3-dimensional steady state circulation, which would serve as initial condition in simulation models of circulation.

Influence of tropical convective enhancement in Pacific on the trend of stratospheric sudden warmings in Northern Hemisphere

The exploration of the trend in stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) is conducive to predict SSWs in the future. Utilizing the National Centre for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis (NCEP) (1948–2020) and Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA55) (1958–2020), we investigated the duration and strength of SSWs in the Northern Hemisphere occurred in the boreal winter (December–February). We found the duration of SSWs tends to increase and the strength of SSWs tends to strengthen from 1948 to 2003. After 2003, these trends did not continue. We utilized the observed cloudiness from the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) to find that the convective activities in the tropical Central Pacific were enhanced during 1948–2003, and the enhancement of the convective activities did not continue after 2003. The circulation anomalies caused by the enhanced convective activities propagate to the high latitudes through wave trains. The anomalies of circulation and the climatological circulation at high latitudes interfere with each other and superimpose, which has a significant impact on planetary wave 1 (PW1). As a result, the PW1 also showed an increasing trend from 1948 to 2003 and a decreasing trend after 2003. After the stratosphere filters out the planetary wave with a large wavenumber, PW1 accounts for more proportion of planetary waves, which causes the trend in SSWs to change.

Model Uncertainty in Cloud–Circulation Coupling, and Cloud-Radiative Response to Increasing CO2, Linked to Biases in Climatological Circulation

Recent analyses of global climate models suggest that uncertainty in the coupling between midlatitude clouds and the atmospheric circulation contributes to uncertainty in climate sensitivity. However, the reasons behind model differences in the cloud–circulation coupling have remained unclear. Here, we use a global climate model in an idealized aquaplanet setup to show that the Southern Hemisphere climatological circulation, which in many models is biased equatorward, contributes to the model differences in the cloud–circulation coupling. For the same poleward shift of the Hadley cell (HC) edge, models with narrower climatological HCs exhibit stronger midlatitude cloud-induced shortwave warming than models with wider climatological HCs. This cloud-induced radiative warming results predominantly from a subsidence warming that decreases cloud fraction and is stronger for narrower HCs because of a larger meridional gradient in the vertical velocity. A comparison of our aquaplanet results with comprehensive climate models suggests that about half of the model uncertainty in the midlatitude cloud–circulation coupling stems from this impact of the circulation on the large-scale temperature structure of the atmosphere, and thus could be removed by improving the climatological circulation in models. This illustrates how understanding of large-scale dynamics can help reduce uncertainty in clouds and their response to climate change.

Southern Annular Mode Dynamics in Observations and Models. Part II: Eddy Feedbacks

Many global climate models (GCMs) have trouble simulating southern annular mode (SAM) variability correctly, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere summer season where it tends to be too persistent. In this two-part study, a suite of experiments with the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) is analyzed to improve the understanding of the dynamics of SAM variability and its deficiencies in GCMs. Here, an examination of the eddy–mean flow feedbacks is presented by quantification of the feedback strength as a function of zonal scale and season using a new methodology that accounts for intraseasonal forcing of the SAM. In the observed atmosphere, in the summer season, a strong negative feedback by planetary-scale waves, in particular zonal wavenumber 3, is found in a localized region in the southwest Pacific. It cancels a large proportion of the positive feedback by synoptic- and smaller-scale eddies in the zonal mean, resulting in a very weak overall eddy feedback on the SAM. CMAM is deficient in this negative feedback by planetary-scale waves, making a substantial contribution to its bias in summertime SAM persistence. Furthermore, this bias is not alleviated by artificially improving the climatological circulation, suggesting that climatological circulation biases are not the cause of the planetary wave feedback deficiency in the model. Analysis of the summertime eddy feedbacks in the models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) confirms that this is indeed a common problem among GCMs, suggesting that understanding this planetary wave feedback and the reason for its deficiency in GCMs is key to improving the fidelity of simulated SAM variability in the summer season.

Southern Annular Mode Dynamics in Observations and Models. Part I: The Influence of Climatological Zonal Wind Biases in a Comprehensive GCM

A common bias among global climate models (GCMs) is that they exhibit tropospheric southern annular mode (SAM) variability that is much too persistent in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) summertime. This is of concern for the ability to accurately predict future SH circulation changes, so it is important that it be understood and alleviated. In this two-part study, specifically targeted experiments with the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) are used to improve understanding of the enhanced summertime SAM persistence. Given the ubiquity of this bias among comprehensive GCMs, it is likely that the results will be relevant for other climate models. Here, in Part I, the influence of climatological circulation biases on SAM variability is assessed, with a particular focus on two common biases that could enhance summertime SAM persistence: the too-late breakdown of the Antarctic stratospheric vortex and the equatorward bias in the SH tropospheric midlatitude jet. Four simulations are used to investigate the role of each of these biases in CMAM. Nudging and bias correcting procedures are used to systematically remove zonal-mean stratospheric variability and/or remove climatological zonal wind biases. The SAM time-scale bias is not alleviated by improving either the timing of the stratospheric vortex breakdown or the climatological jet structure. Even in the absence of stratospheric variability and with an improved climatological circulation, the model time scales are biased long. This points toward a bias in internal tropospheric dynamics that is not caused by the tropospheric jet structure bias. The underlying cause of this is examined in more detail in Part II of this study.

Spring–summer climatological circulation in the upper layer in the region of Cape St. Vincent, Southwest Portugal

Geostrophic transport and hydrographic measurements derived from a historical database (1900–1998) were used to study the spring–summer mean circulation in the upper layer south and west of Cape St. Vincent, Southwest (SW) Portugal. The larger-scale circulation scheme is forced by equatorward winds from May to September, when the Iberian coastal transition zone (CTZ) is dominated by a generalized upwelling of cold, low-salinity water. A partially separated surface jet intensified at the shelf break conveys ∼1 Sv of upwelled water equatorward parallel to the bathymetry, while offshore a poleward flow transports ∼0.4–0.6 Sv of upwelled water. Although alongshore transports dominate the circulation pattern of the upper layers, cross-shore transports are significant at the climatological scale. Anticyclonic circulation with an exchange of ∼0.5 Sv from the equatorward jet to the offshore poleward flow and the partial re-circulation further north, back into the equatorward flow are discussed. A coherent, cyclonic re-circulation pattern inshore of the upwelling jet is also speculated. From these results the shelf break is considered a climatological border at both sides of which two major re-circulation cells occur. The climatological equatorward flow has offshore protrusions, interpreted as recurrent episodes of major contortions of the upwelling flow. These features bring about considerable “cross-shelf flow” re-circulation reaching up to 50% of the main flow. The most significant exchanges are found to be associated with major changes of orientation of the coastline. Off Cape St. Vincent the upwelling front stretches to both west and south and contributes to the cross-shelf re-circulations. Additionally, convergence of the upwelling flow and a branch of the Azores current, with associated re-circulation is found diagonally from the cape. On the southern coast the upwelling jet is seen to meander offshore in the vicinity of Cape St. Maria. Individual synoptic cruise data showed agreement with the climatological circulation features. We conclude that these oceanographic features leave an imprint on the climatic circulation in spite of the “smoothing out” of recurrent events over the spring–summer period of the years of 1900–1998.