scholarly journals Regional ensemble forecast for early warning system over small Apennine catchments on Central Italy

Author(s):  
Rossella Ferretti ◽  
Annalina Lombardi ◽  
Barbara Tomassetti ◽  
Lorenzo Sangelantoni ◽  
Valentina Colaiuda ◽  
...  

Abstract. The weather forecasts for precipitation have considerably improved in recent years thanks to the increase of computational power. This allows to use both a higher spatial resolutions and the newly developed parameterization schemes for representing sub-grid scale physical processes. However, precipitation estimation is still affected by errors that can impact on the response of hydrological models. To the aim of considering the uncertainties in the precipitation forecast and how they propagate in the hydrological model, an ensemble approach is investigated. A meteo-hydro ensemble system is built to forecast events in a complex orography terrain where catchments of different size are present. In this context, the meteo-hydrological forecast system is implemented and tested for a severe hydrological event occurred over Central Italy on November 15, 2017. During this period, a flash flood hit the Abruzzo region causing precipitation up to 200 mm/24 hours and producing damages with a high impact on social and economic activities.The newly developed meteo-hydro ensemble system is compared with a high resolution deterministic forecast and with the observations over the same area, showing a very good response. In addition, the ensemble allows for an estimation of the predictability of the event a few days in advance and of the uncertainty of this flood. Although the modelling framework is implemented on the basins of Abruzzo region, it is portable and applicable to other areas.

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (6) ◽  
pp. 3135-3156
Author(s):  
Rossella Ferretti ◽  
Annalina Lombardi ◽  
Barbara Tomassetti ◽  
Lorenzo Sangelantoni ◽  
Valentina Colaiuda ◽  
...  

Abstract. The weather forecasts for precipitation have considerably improved in recent years thanks to the increase of computational power. This allows for the use of both a higher spatial resolution and the parameterization schemes specifically developed for representing sub-grid scale physical processes at high resolution. However, precipitation estimation is still affected by errors that can impact the response of hydrological models. To the aim of improving the hydrological forecast and the characterization of related uncertainties, a regional-scale meteorological–hydrological ensemble is presented. The uncertainties in the precipitation forecast and how they propagate in the hydrological model are also investigated. A meteorological–hydrological offline coupled ensemble is built to forecast events in a complex-orography terrain where catchments of different sizes are present. The Best Discharge-based Drainage (BDD; both deterministic and probabilistic) index, is defined with the aim of forecasting hydrological-stress conditions and related uncertainty. In this context, the meteorological–hydrological ensemble forecast is implemented and tested for a severe hydrological event which occurred over Central Italy on 15 November 2017, when a flood hit the Abruzzo region with precipitation reaching 200 mm (24 h)−1 and producing damages with a high impact on social and economic activities. The newly developed meteorological–hydrological ensemble is compared with a high-resolution deterministic forecast and with the observations (rain gauges and radar data) over the same area. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) statistical indicator shows how skilful the ensemble precipitation forecast is with respect to both rain-gauge- and radar-retrieved precipitation. Moreover, both the deterministic and probabilistic configurations of the BDD index are compared with the alert map issued by Civil Protection Department for the event showing a very good agreement. Finally, the meteorological–hydrological ensemble allows for an estimation of both the predictability of the event a few days in advance and the uncertainty of the flood. Although the modelling framework is implemented on the basins of the Abruzzo region, it is portable and applicable to other areas.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vincenzo Mazzarella ◽  
Rossella Ferretti ◽  
Errico Picciotti ◽  
Frank S. Marzano

Abstract. The precipitation forecast over the Mediterranean basin is still a challenge because of the complex orographic region which amplifies the need for local observation to correctly initialize the forecast. In this context the data assimilation techniques play a key role in improving the initial conditions and consequently the timing and position of precipitation pattern. For the first time, the ability of a cycling 4D-Var to reproduce a severe weather event in central Italy, as well as to provide a comparison with the largely used cycling 3D-Var, is evaluated in this study. The radar reflectivity measured by the Italian ground radar network is assimilated in the WRF model to simulate an event occurred on May 3, 2018 in central Italy. In order to evaluate the impact of data assimilation, several simulations are objectively compared by means of a Fraction Skill Score (FSS), which is calculated for several threshold values, and a Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. The results suggest that both assimilation methods in cycling mode improve the 1, 3 and 6-hourly quantitative precipitation estimation. More specifically, the cycling 4D-Var with a warm start initialization shows the highest FSS values in the first hours of simulation both with light and heavy precipitation. Finally, the ROC curve confirms the benefit of 4D-Var: the area under the curve is 0.91 compared to the 0.88 of control experiment without data assimilation.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessia Nava ◽  
Elena Fiorin ◽  
Andrea Zupancich ◽  
Marialetizia Carra ◽  
Claudio Ottoni ◽  
...  

AbstractThis paper provides results from a suite of analyses made on human dental material from the Late Palaeolithic to Neolithic strata of the cave site of Grotta Continenza situated in the Fucino Basin of the Abruzzo region of central Italy. The available human remains from this site provide a unique possibility to study ways in which forager versus farmer lifeways affected human odonto-skeletal remains. The main aim of our study is to understand palaeodietary patterns and their changes over time as reflected in teeth. These analyses involve a review of metrics and oral pathologies, micro-fossils preserved in the mineralized dental plaque, macrowear, and buccal microwear. Our results suggest that these complementary approaches support the assumption about a critical change in dental conditions and status with the introduction of Neolithic foodstuff and habits. However, we warn that different methodologies applied here provide data at different scales of resolution for detecting such changes and a multipronged approach to the study of dental collections is needed for a more comprehensive and nuanced understanding of diachronic changes.


2021 ◽  
Vol 35 (5) ◽  
pp. 1547-1571
Author(s):  
Xiaoyan Zhai ◽  
Liang Guo ◽  
Ronghua Liu ◽  
Yongyong Zhang ◽  
Yongqiang Zhang

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kor de Jong ◽  
Marc van Kreveld ◽  
Debabrata Panja ◽  
Oliver Schmitz ◽  
Derek Karssenberg

<p>Data availability at global scale is increasing exponentially. Although considerable challenges remain regarding the identification of model structure and parameters of continental scale hydrological models, we will soon reach the situation that global scale models could be defined at very high resolutions close to 100 m or less. One of the key challenges is how to make simulations of these ultra-high resolution models tractable ([1]).</p><p>Our research contributes by the development of a model building framework that is specifically designed to distribute calculations over multiple cluster nodes. This framework enables domain experts like hydrologists to develop their own large scale models, using a scripting language like Python, without the need to acquire the skills to develop low-level computer code for parallel and distributed computing.</p><p>We present the design and implementation of this software framework and illustrate its use with a prototype 100 m, 1 h continental scale hydrological model. Our modelling framework ensures that any model built with it is parallelized. This is made possible by providing the model builder with a set of building blocks of models, which are coded in such a manner that parallelization of calculations occurs within and across these building blocks, for any combination of building blocks. There is thus full flexibility on the side of the modeller, without losing performance.</p><p>This breakthrough is made possible by applying a novel approach to the implementation of the model building framework, called asynchronous many-tasks, provided by the HPX C++ software library ([3]). The code in the model building framework expresses spatial operations as large collections of interdependent tasks that can be executed efficiently on individual laptops as well as computer clusters ([2]). Our framework currently includes the most essential operations for building large scale hydrological models, including those for simulating transport of material through a flow direction network. By combining these operations, we rebuilt an existing 100 m, 1 h resolution model, thus far used for simulations of small catchments, requiring limited coding as we only had to replace the computational back end of the existing model. Runs at continental scale on a computer cluster show acceptable strong and weak scaling providing a strong indication that global simulations at this resolution will soon be possible, technically speaking.</p><p>Future work will focus on extending the set of modelling operations and adding scalable I/O, after which existing models that are currently limited in their ability to use the computational resources available to them can be ported to this new environment.</p><p>More information about our modelling framework is at https://lue.computationalgeography.org.</p><p><strong>References</strong></p><p>[1] M. Bierkens. Global hydrology 2015: State, trends, and directions. Water Resources Research, 51(7):4923–4947, 2015.<br>[2] K. de Jong, et al. An environmental modelling framework based on asynchronous many-tasks: scalability and usability. Submitted.<br>[3] H. Kaiser, et al. HPX - The C++ standard library for parallelism and concurrency. Journal of Open Source Software, 5(53):2352, 2020.</p>


2018 ◽  
Vol 92 (2) ◽  
pp. 619-634 ◽  
Author(s):  
Changjun Liu ◽  
Liang Guo ◽  
Lei Ye ◽  
Shunfu Zhang ◽  
Yanzeng Zhao ◽  
...  

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 1571 ◽  
Author(s):  
Song ◽  
Park ◽  
Lee ◽  
Park ◽  
Song

The runoff from heavy rainfall reaches urban streams quickly, causing them to rise rapidly. It is therefore of great importance to provide sufficient lead time for evacuation planning and decision making. An efficient flood forecasting and warning method is crucial for ensuring adequate lead time. With this objective, this paper proposes an analysis method for a flood forecasting and warning system, and establishes the criteria for issuing urban-stream flash flood warnings based on the amount of rainfall to allow sufficient lead time. The proposed methodology is a nonstructural approach to flood prediction and risk reduction. It considers water level fluctuations during a rainfall event and estimates the upstream (alert point) and downstream (confluence) water levels for water level analysis based on the rainfall intensity and duration. We also investigate the rainfall/runoff and flow rate/water level relationships using the Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) and the HEC’s River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) models, respectively, and estimate the rainfall threshold for issuing flash flood warnings depending on the backwater state based on actual watershed conditions. We present a methodology for issuing flash flood warnings at a critical point by considering the effects of fluctuations in various backwater conditions in real time, which will provide practical support for decision making by disaster protection workers. The results are compared with real-time water level observations of the Dorim Stream. Finally, we verify the validity of the flash flood warning criteria by comparing the predicted values with the observed values and performing validity analysis.


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