A method for predicting hydrogen and oxygen isotope distributions across a region's river network using reach-scale environmental attributes
Abstract. Stable isotope ratio measurements (isotope values) of surface water provide information on hydrological processes and can be used to determine provenance of hydrogen and oxygen stored in animal and plant tissues. Development of maps of the distribution of isotope values (isoscapes) for river networks is limited by methods to interpolate point measures to values for the entire network. Isotope values of precipitation and environmental characteristics that drive fractionation processes within the catchment also affect downstream reaches via flow. Many environmental characteristics, such as man-made dams, are no more likely to affect nearby unconnected reaches than distant ones. Hence, distance-based geospatial and statistical interpolation methods used to develop isoscapes for precipitation and terrestrial systems are less appropriate for river networks. We used a water balance-based method, which represents patterns of surface flow and mixing, and added a regression-based correction step using catchment environmental predictors. We applied this method across the river network of New Zealand, comprising over 600,000 reaches and over 400,000 kilometres of rivers. Inputs to the model are national rainfall precipitation isoscapes, a digital elevation layer, a national river water isotope monitoring dataset (3 years of monthly sampling at 58 sites) and reach scale river environmental databases across the New Zealand river network. δ2H and δ18O isoscapes produced using this regression-based kriging method showed improved fit to validation data, compared to a model for which residuals were applied as a correction factor across the river network using ordinary kriging. The resulting river water isoscapes have potential applications in ecology, hydrology and provenance studies for which understanding of spatial variation between precipitation and surface water isotope values are required.