scholarly journals Simulation of long-term spatiotemporal variations in regional-scale groundwater recharge: Contributions of a water budget approach in southern Quebec

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Dubois ◽  
Marie Larocque ◽  
Sylvain Gagné ◽  
Guillaume Meyzonnat
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Groundwater Recharge ◽  
Water Budget ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Cold Climate ◽  
Budget Model ◽  
Precipitation Temperature ◽  
Spatially Distributed

Abstract. Groundwater recharge (GWR) is recognized to be a strategic hydrologic variable, necessary to estimate when implementing sustainable groundwater management, especially within a global change context. However, its simulation at the regional scale and for long-term conditions is challenging, especially due to the limited availability of spatially-distributed calibration data and to the rather short observed time series. The use of a superficial water budget model to estimate recharge is appropriate for this task. A reliable regional-scale estimate of GWR that can be updated relatively easily using widely-available data is essential for the implementation of long-term water use policies and is clearly lacking in southern Quebec (Canada; 36 000 km2). This study aims to test the ability of a spatially-distributed water budget model, automatically calibrated with river flow rates and baseflow estimates, to simulate GWR at a regional-scale from 1961 to 2017 in southern Quebec (monthly time step, 500 m × 500 m spatial resolution). The novelty of this work lies in the simulation of the first regional-scale GWR estimate for southern Quebec and in the development of a robust approach to implement a superficial water budget model at the regional-scale and for a long period. The HydroBudget model was specifically developed by a team at Université du Québec à Montréal for regional-scale simulation and cold climate conditions, and uses parsimonious input data (distributed precipitation, temperature, and runoff curve numbers). The model was regionally calibrated with river flows and baseflows (recursive filter on river flow data), and the automatic calibration procedure of the R package caRamel allowed a satisfying calibration quality (KGE = 0.72) to be reached. Across the study area and based on the exceptionally long spatialized time series, the simulated water budget was divided into 41 % runoff (444 mm/yr), 47 % actual evapotranspiration (501 mm/yr), and 12 % potential groundwater recharge (139 mm/yr). This partitioning was influenced by precipitation, temperature, soil texture, land cover, and topography. Groundwater recharge peaked during spring (44 % of annual recharge) and winter (32 % of annual recharge). A novel and particularly useful result from this work was to show that the seasonality of recharge was driven by the regional temperature gradient, with decreasing temperatures from west to east, and that winter GWR presented a statistically significant increasing trend since 1961 due to increased precipitation and warming temperatures. Another original contribution of this work was to show that at the regional scale, water budget models, such as HydroBudget, can be easily calibrated with river flow measurements and baseflows, and therefore represent a good option with which to acquire knowledge about regional hydrological dynamics. Being accessible, they are a useful approach for scientists, modellers, and stakeholders alike to understand regional-scale groundwater renewal rates, especially if they can be easily adapted to specific study needs and environments.

scholarly journals Simulation of long-term spatiotemporal variations in regional-scale groundwater recharge: contributions of a water budget approach in cold and humid climates

2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (12) ◽  
pp. 6567-6589
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Dubois ◽  
Marie Larocque ◽  
Sylvain Gagné ◽  
Guillaume Meyzonnat
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Groundwater Recharge ◽  
Water Budget ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Ease Of Use ◽  
Calibration Data ◽  
Long Term Conditions ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

Abstract. Groundwater recharge (GWR) is a strategic hydrologic variable, and its estimate is necessary to implement sustainable groundwater management. This is especially true in a global warming context that highly impacts key winter conditions in cold and humid climates. For this reason, long-term simulations are particularly useful for understanding past changes in GWR associated with changing climatic conditions. However, GWR simulation at the regional scale and for long-term conditions is challenging, especially due to the limited availability of spatially distributed calibration data and due to generally short observed time series. The objective of this study is to demonstrate the relevance of using a water budget model to understand long-term transient and regional-scale GWR in cold and humid climates where groundwater observations are scarce. The HydroBudget model was specifically developed for regional-scale simulations in cold and humid climate conditions. The model uses commonly available data such as runoff curve numbers to describe the study area, precipitation and temperature time series to run the model, and river flow rates and baseflow estimates for its automatic calibration. A typical case study is presented for the southern portion of the Province of Quebec (Canada, 36 000 km2). With the model simultaneously calibrated on 51 gauging stations, the first GWR estimate for the region was simulated between 1961 and 2017 with very little uncertainty (≤ 10 mm/yr). The simulated water budget was divided into 41 % runoff (444 mm/yr), 47 % evapotranspiration (501 mm/yr), and 12 % GWR (139 mm/yr), with preferential GWR periods during spring and winter (44 % and 32 % of the annual GWR, respectively), values that are typical of other cold and humid climates. Snowpack evolution and soil frost were shown to be a key feature for GWR simulation in these environments. One of the contributions of the study was to show that the model sensitivity to its parameters was correlated with the average air temperature, with colder watersheds more sensitive to snow-related parameters than warmer watersheds. Interestingly, the results showed that the significant increase in precipitation and temperature since the early 1960s did not lead to significant changes in the annual GWR but resulted in increased runoff and evapotranspiration. In contrast to previous studies of past GWR trends in cold and humid climates, this work has shown that changes in past climatic conditions have not yet produced significant changes in annual GWR. Because of their relative ease of use, water budget models are a useful approach for scientists, modelers, and stakeholders alike to understand regional-scale groundwater renewal rates in cold and humid climates, especially if they can be easily adapted to specific study needs and environments.

Using a water budget model to anticipate the impact of climate change on groundwater recharge at the regional scale in cold and humid climates - example of southern Quebec (Canada)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Dubois ◽  
Marie Larocque ◽  
Sylvain Gagné
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Groundwater Recharge ◽  
Water Budget ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Budget Model ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

<p>In cold and humid climates, rivers and superficial water bodies are often fed by groundwater with relatively constant inflows that are most visible during the summer (limited net precipitation) and the winter (limited runoff and infiltration). The harsh winter – short growing season succession could be drastically affected by climate change. Although water is abundant, extreme low flows are expected in the near future, most likely due to warmer summer temperatures, increased summer PET and possible lower summer precipitation. It is thus crucial to provide stakeholders with scenarios of future groundwater recharge (GWR) to anticipate the impacts of climate change on groundwater resources at the regional scale. This study aims to test the contributions of a superficial water budget model to estimate the impact of climate change on the regional GWR. The methodology is tested in a forested and agricultural region of southern Quebec, located between the St. Lawrence River and the Canada-USA border, and between the Quebec-Ontario border and Quebec City (36,000 km²). Scenarios of GWR for the region are simulated with the HydroBudget model, performing a transient-state spatialized superficial water budget, and 12 climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5, 1951-2100 period). The model was previously calibrated in the study area for the 1961-2017 period and provides spatially distributed runoff, actual evapotranspiration, and GWR fluxes at a 500 x 500 m resolution with a monthly time step. Climate scenarios show warming of the annual temperature from +2 to +5°C and up to 20% increase of annual precipitation at the 2100 horizon compared to the 1981-2010 reference period. By the end of the century, the number of days above 0°C could double between November and April, dividing by almost two the quantity of snow during winter. The clear trends of warming temperature leads to a clear actual evapotranspiration (AET) increase while the increasing variability in annual precipitation translates into more variable annual runoff and GWR. Although no annual GWR decrease is simulated, an increase of winter GWR (up to x2) is expected, linked to warmer winters and unfrozen soils, followed by a decrease for the rest of the year, linked to a longer growing season producing higher AET rates. Although simple in its simulation process, the use of a superficial water budget model simulating soil frost provides new insights into the possible future trends in the different hydrologic variables based on a robust understanding of past condition. Aside from providing scenarios of spatialized GWR (also runoff and AET) at the 2100 horizon for a large region, this study shows that a simple water budget model is an appropriate and affordable tool to provide stakeholders with useful data for water management in a changing climate.</p>

scholarly journals Determining Regional-Scale Groundwater Recharge with GRACE and GLDAS

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 154 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qifan Wu ◽  
Bingcheng Si ◽  
Hailong He ◽  
Pute Wu
Keyword(s):  
Groundwater Recharge ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Root Zone ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Ordos Basin ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Chinese Loess Plateau ◽  
Soil Water Storage ◽  
Chinese Loess

Groundwater recharge (GR) is a key component of regional and global water cycles and is a critical flux for water resource management. However, recharge estimates are difficult to obtain at regional scales due to the lack of an accurate measurement method. Here, we estimate GR using Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) data. The regional-scale GR rate is calculated based on the groundwater storage fluctuation, which is, in turn, calculated from the difference between GRACE and root zone soil water storage from GLDAS data. We estimated GR in the Ordos Basin of the Chinese Loess Plateau from 2002 to 2012. There was no obvious long-term trend in GR, but the annual recharge varies greatly from 30.8 to 66.5 mm year−1, 42% of which can be explained by the variability in the annual precipitation. The average GR rate over the 11-year period from GRACE data was 48.3 mm year−1, which did not differ significantly from the long-term average recharge estimate of 39.9 mm year−1 from the environmental tracer methods and one-dimensional models. Moreover, the standard deviation of the 11-year average GR is 16.0 mm year−1, with a coefficient of variation (CV) of 33.1%, which is, in most cases, comparable to or smaller than estimates from other GR methods. The improved method could provide critically needed, regional-scale GR estimates for groundwater management and may eventually lead to a sustainable use of groundwater resources.

scholarly journals Continuous partial trends and low-frequency oscillations of time series

2005 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 451-460 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. R. Tomé ◽  
P. M. A. Miranda
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Distributed Data ◽  
Spatially Distributed ◽  
Geophysical Time Series ◽  
Slow Evolution ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Times ◽  
Data Subject

Abstract. This paper presents a recent methodology developed for the analysis of the slow evolution of geophysical time series. The method is based on least-squares fitting of continuous line segments to the data, subject to flexible conditions, and is able to objectively locate the times of significant change in the series tendencies. The time distribution of these breakpoints may be an important set of parameters for the analysis of the long term evolution of some geophysical data, simplifying the intercomparison between datasets and offering a new way for the analysis of time varying spatially distributed data. Several application examples, using data that is important in the context of global warming studies, are presented and briefly discussed.

Long-term Cyclicities in Earthquake Energy Release and Major River Flow Volumes in Virginia and Missouri Seismic Zones

1988 ◽  
Vol 59 (4) ◽  
pp. 279-283 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. A. Bollinger ◽  
J. K. Costain
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Fluid Pressure ◽  
Fracture Permeability ◽  
Intraplate Earthquakes ◽  
Seismic Zones ◽  
Straight Line ◽  
History Of ◽  
Major River

Abstract We have investigated the time series for earthquake strain energy releases and flow volumes for the major rivers that bisect the regions of seismicity in Virginia (Giles County; central Virginia) and Missouri (New Madrid) seismic zones. Our procedure is to integrate with respect to time over data lengths up to 70 years duration and then to subtract a least squares straight-line fit. The resulting residual earthquake and flow volume time series and their spectral densities both exhibit dominant periods in the 20–30 year range. These common cyclities lend support for an important role of water in intraplate seismogenesis. The fracture permeability of crystalline rocks, caused by a long history of compressional and extensional tectonic episodes, together with the driving potential supplied by long-term cyclical variations in streamflow, can result in the diffusion of fluid pressure transients to focal depths as deep as 20 km. At those depths there is also present a quasi-static, hydrolytic weakening effect of water on asperities present in the fault zones. This combination of mechanical and chemical effects can cause intraplate earthquakes in highly-stressed crustal volumes.

scholarly journals Drifting Effects of NOAA Satellites on Long-Term Active Fire Records of Europe

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 467 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helga Weber ◽  
Stefan Wunderle
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Explicit Knowledge ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Error Sources ◽  
Fire Cycle ◽  
Active Fire ◽  
Maximum Delay ◽  
Orbital Drift ◽  
The Impact

Explicit knowledge of different error sources in long-term climate records from space is required to understand and mitigate their impacts on resulting time series. Imagery of the heritage Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) provides unique potential for climate research dating back to the 1980s, flying onboard a series of successive National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Meteorological Operational (MetOp) satellites. However, the NOAA satellites are affected by severe orbital drift that results in spurious trends in time series. We identified the impact and extent of the orbital drift in 1 km AVHRR long-term active fire data. This record contains data of European fire activity from 1985–2016 and was analyzed on a regional scale and extended across Europe. Inconsistent sampling of the diurnal active fire cycle due to orbital drift with a maximum delay of ∼5 h over NOAA-14 lifetime revealed a ∼90% decline in the number of observed fires. However, interregional results were less conclusive and other error sources as well as interannual variability were more pronounced. Solar illumination, measured by the sun zenith angle (SZA), related changes in background temperatures were significant for all regions and afternoon satellites with major changes in −0.03 to −0.09 K deg − 1 for ▵ B T 34 (p ≤ 0 . 001). Based on example scenes, we simulated the influence of changing temperatures related to changes in the SZA on the detection of active fires. These simulations showed a profound influence of the active fire detection capabilities dependent on biome and land cover characteristics. The strong decrease in the relative changes in the apparent number of active fires calculated over the satellites lifetime highlights that a correction of the orbital drift effect is essential even over short time periods.

scholarly journals Tropospheric water vapour above Switzerland over the last 12 years

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (16) ◽  
pp. 5975-5988 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Morland ◽  
M. Collaud Coen ◽  
K. Hocke ◽  
P. Jeannet ◽  
C. Mätzler
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Water Vapour ◽  
Grid Point ◽  
Microwave Radiometer ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Seasonal Trends ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Integrated Water Vapour ◽  
Mountain Weather

Abstract. Integrated Water vapour (IWV) has been measured since 1994 by the TROWARA microwave radiometer in Bern, Switzerland. Homogenization techniques were used to identify and correct step changes in IWV related to instrument problems. IWV from radiosonde, GPS and sun photometer (SPM) was used in the homogenisation process as well as partial IWV columns between valley and mountain weather stations. The average IWV of the homogenised TROWARA time series was 14.4 mm over the 1996–2007 period, with maximum and minimum monthly average values of 22.4 mm and 8 mm occurring in August and January, respectively. A weak diurnal cycle in TROWARA IWV was detected with an amplitude of 0.32 mm, a maximum at 21:00 UT and a minimum at 11:00 UT. For 1996–2007, TROWARA trends were compared with those calculated from the Payerne radiosonde and the closest ECMWF grid point to Bern. Using least squares analysis, the IWV time series of radiosondes at Payerne, ECMWF, and TROWARA showed consistent positive trends from 1996 to 2007. The radiosondes measured an IWV trend of 0.45±0.29%/y, the TROWARA radiometer observed a trend of 0.39±0.44%/y, and ECMWF operational analysis gave a trend of 0.25±0.34%/y. Since IWV has a strong and variable annual cycle, a seasonal trend analysis (Mann-Kendall analysis) was also performed. The seasonal trends are stronger by a factor 10 or so compared to the full year trends above. The positive IWV trends of the summer months are partly compensated by the negative trends of the winter months. The strong seasonal trends of IWV on regional scale underline the necessity of long-term monitoring of IWV for detection,understanding, and forecast of climate change effects in the Alpine region.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document