Simulation of long-term spatiotemporal variations in regional-scale groundwater recharge: contributions of a water budget approach in cold and humid climates

Abstract. Groundwater recharge (GWR) is a strategic hydrologic variable, and its estimate is necessary to implement sustainable groundwater management. This is especially true in a global warming context that highly impacts key winter conditions in cold and humid climates. For this reason, long-term simulations are particularly useful for understanding past changes in GWR associated with changing climatic conditions. However, GWR simulation at the regional scale and for long-term conditions is challenging, especially due to the limited availability of spatially distributed calibration data and due to generally short observed time series. The objective of this study is to demonstrate the relevance of using a water budget model to understand long-term transient and regional-scale GWR in cold and humid climates where groundwater observations are scarce. The HydroBudget model was specifically developed for regional-scale simulations in cold and humid climate conditions. The model uses commonly available data such as runoff curve numbers to describe the study area, precipitation and temperature time series to run the model, and river flow rates and baseflow estimates for its automatic calibration. A typical case study is presented for the southern portion of the Province of Quebec (Canada, 36 000 km2). With the model simultaneously calibrated on 51 gauging stations, the first GWR estimate for the region was simulated between 1961 and 2017 with very little uncertainty (≤ 10 mm/yr). The simulated water budget was divided into 41 % runoff (444 mm/yr), 47 % evapotranspiration (501 mm/yr), and 12 % GWR (139 mm/yr), with preferential GWR periods during spring and winter (44 % and 32 % of the annual GWR, respectively), values that are typical of other cold and humid climates. Snowpack evolution and soil frost were shown to be a key feature for GWR simulation in these environments. One of the contributions of the study was to show that the model sensitivity to its parameters was correlated with the average air temperature, with colder watersheds more sensitive to snow-related parameters than warmer watersheds. Interestingly, the results showed that the significant increase in precipitation and temperature since the early 1960s did not lead to significant changes in the annual GWR but resulted in increased runoff and evapotranspiration. In contrast to previous studies of past GWR trends in cold and humid climates, this work has shown that changes in past climatic conditions have not yet produced significant changes in annual GWR. Because of their relative ease of use, water budget models are a useful approach for scientists, modelers, and stakeholders alike to understand regional-scale groundwater renewal rates in cold and humid climates, especially if they can be easily adapted to specific study needs and environments.

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Simulation of long-term spatiotemporal variations in regional-scale groundwater recharge: Contributions of a water budget approach in southern Quebec

10.5194/hess-2021-71 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Emmanuel Dubois ◽

Marie Larocque ◽

Sylvain Gagné ◽

Guillaume Meyzonnat

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Groundwater Recharge ◽

Water Budget ◽

River Flow ◽

Regional Scale ◽

Cold Climate ◽

Budget Model ◽

Precipitation Temperature ◽

Spatially Distributed

Abstract. Groundwater recharge (GWR) is recognized to be a strategic hydrologic variable, necessary to estimate when implementing sustainable groundwater management, especially within a global change context. However, its simulation at the regional scale and for long-term conditions is challenging, especially due to the limited availability of spatially-distributed calibration data and to the rather short observed time series. The use of a superficial water budget model to estimate recharge is appropriate for this task. A reliable regional-scale estimate of GWR that can be updated relatively easily using widely-available data is essential for the implementation of long-term water use policies and is clearly lacking in southern Quebec (Canada; 36 000 km2). This study aims to test the ability of a spatially-distributed water budget model, automatically calibrated with river flow rates and baseflow estimates, to simulate GWR at a regional-scale from 1961 to 2017 in southern Quebec (monthly time step, 500 m × 500 m spatial resolution). The novelty of this work lies in the simulation of the first regional-scale GWR estimate for southern Quebec and in the development of a robust approach to implement a superficial water budget model at the regional-scale and for a long period. The HydroBudget model was specifically developed by a team at Université du Québec à Montréal for regional-scale simulation and cold climate conditions, and uses parsimonious input data (distributed precipitation, temperature, and runoff curve numbers). The model was regionally calibrated with river flows and baseflows (recursive filter on river flow data), and the automatic calibration procedure of the R package caRamel allowed a satisfying calibration quality (KGE = 0.72) to be reached. Across the study area and based on the exceptionally long spatialized time series, the simulated water budget was divided into 41 % runoff (444 mm/yr), 47 % actual evapotranspiration (501 mm/yr), and 12 % potential groundwater recharge (139 mm/yr). This partitioning was influenced by precipitation, temperature, soil texture, land cover, and topography. Groundwater recharge peaked during spring (44 % of annual recharge) and winter (32 % of annual recharge). A novel and particularly useful result from this work was to show that the seasonality of recharge was driven by the regional temperature gradient, with decreasing temperatures from west to east, and that winter GWR presented a statistically significant increasing trend since 1961 due to increased precipitation and warming temperatures. Another original contribution of this work was to show that at the regional scale, water budget models, such as HydroBudget, can be easily calibrated with river flow measurements and baseflows, and therefore represent a good option with which to acquire knowledge about regional hydrological dynamics. Being accessible, they are a useful approach for scientists, modellers, and stakeholders alike to understand regional-scale groundwater renewal rates, especially if they can be easily adapted to specific study needs and environments.

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Determining Regional-Scale Groundwater Recharge with GRACE and GLDAS

Remote Sensing ◽

10.3390/rs11020154 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (2) ◽

pp. 154 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

Qifan Wu ◽

Bingcheng Si ◽

Hailong He ◽

Pute Wu

Keyword(s):

Groundwater Recharge ◽

Water Resource Management ◽

Root Zone ◽

Groundwater Resources ◽

Ordos Basin ◽

Regional Scale ◽

Chinese Loess Plateau ◽

Soil Water Storage ◽

Chinese Loess

Groundwater recharge (GR) is a key component of regional and global water cycles and is a critical flux for water resource management. However, recharge estimates are difficult to obtain at regional scales due to the lack of an accurate measurement method. Here, we estimate GR using Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) data. The regional-scale GR rate is calculated based on the groundwater storage fluctuation, which is, in turn, calculated from the difference between GRACE and root zone soil water storage from GLDAS data. We estimated GR in the Ordos Basin of the Chinese Loess Plateau from 2002 to 2012. There was no obvious long-term trend in GR, but the annual recharge varies greatly from 30.8 to 66.5 mm year−1, 42% of which can be explained by the variability in the annual precipitation. The average GR rate over the 11-year period from GRACE data was 48.3 mm year−1, which did not differ significantly from the long-term average recharge estimate of 39.9 mm year−1 from the environmental tracer methods and one-dimensional models. Moreover, the standard deviation of the 11-year average GR is 16.0 mm year−1, with a coefficient of variation (CV) of 33.1%, which is, in most cases, comparable to or smaller than estimates from other GR methods. The improved method could provide critically needed, regional-scale GR estimates for groundwater management and may eventually lead to a sustainable use of groundwater resources.

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Drifting Effects of NOAA Satellites on Long-Term Active Fire Records of Europe

Remote Sensing ◽

10.3390/rs11040467 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (4) ◽

pp. 467 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Helga Weber ◽

Stefan Wunderle

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Explicit Knowledge ◽

Regional Scale ◽

Error Sources ◽

Fire Cycle ◽

Active Fire ◽

Maximum Delay ◽

Orbital Drift ◽

The Impact

Explicit knowledge of different error sources in long-term climate records from space is required to understand and mitigate their impacts on resulting time series. Imagery of the heritage Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) provides unique potential for climate research dating back to the 1980s, flying onboard a series of successive National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Meteorological Operational (MetOp) satellites. However, the NOAA satellites are affected by severe orbital drift that results in spurious trends in time series. We identified the impact and extent of the orbital drift in 1 km AVHRR long-term active fire data. This record contains data of European fire activity from 1985–2016 and was analyzed on a regional scale and extended across Europe. Inconsistent sampling of the diurnal active fire cycle due to orbital drift with a maximum delay of ∼5 h over NOAA-14 lifetime revealed a ∼90% decline in the number of observed fires. However, interregional results were less conclusive and other error sources as well as interannual variability were more pronounced. Solar illumination, measured by the sun zenith angle (SZA), related changes in background temperatures were significant for all regions and afternoon satellites with major changes in −0.03 to −0.09 K deg − 1 for ▵ B T 34 (p ≤ 0 . 001). Based on example scenes, we simulated the influence of changing temperatures related to changes in the SZA on the detection of active fires. These simulations showed a profound influence of the active fire detection capabilities dependent on biome and land cover characteristics. The strong decrease in the relative changes in the apparent number of active fires calculated over the satellites lifetime highlights that a correction of the orbital drift effect is essential even over short time periods.

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Tropospheric water vapour above Switzerland over the last 12 years

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-9-5975-2009 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 9 (16) ◽

pp. 5975-5988 ◽

Cited By ~ 28

Author(s):

J. Morland ◽

M. Collaud Coen ◽

K. Hocke ◽

P. Jeannet ◽

C. Mätzler

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Water Vapour ◽

Grid Point ◽

Microwave Radiometer ◽

Regional Scale ◽

Seasonal Trends ◽

Climate Change Effects ◽

Integrated Water Vapour ◽

Mountain Weather

Abstract. Integrated Water vapour (IWV) has been measured since 1994 by the TROWARA microwave radiometer in Bern, Switzerland. Homogenization techniques were used to identify and correct step changes in IWV related to instrument problems. IWV from radiosonde, GPS and sun photometer (SPM) was used in the homogenisation process as well as partial IWV columns between valley and mountain weather stations. The average IWV of the homogenised TROWARA time series was 14.4 mm over the 1996–2007 period, with maximum and minimum monthly average values of 22.4 mm and 8 mm occurring in August and January, respectively. A weak diurnal cycle in TROWARA IWV was detected with an amplitude of 0.32 mm, a maximum at 21:00 UT and a minimum at 11:00 UT. For 1996–2007, TROWARA trends were compared with those calculated from the Payerne radiosonde and the closest ECMWF grid point to Bern. Using least squares analysis, the IWV time series of radiosondes at Payerne, ECMWF, and TROWARA showed consistent positive trends from 1996 to 2007. The radiosondes measured an IWV trend of 0.45±0.29%/y, the TROWARA radiometer observed a trend of 0.39±0.44%/y, and ECMWF operational analysis gave a trend of 0.25±0.34%/y. Since IWV has a strong and variable annual cycle, a seasonal trend analysis (Mann-Kendall analysis) was also performed. The seasonal trends are stronger by a factor 10 or so compared to the full year trends above. The positive IWV trends of the summer months are partly compensated by the negative trends of the winter months. The strong seasonal trends of IWV on regional scale underline the necessity of long-term monitoring of IWV for detection,understanding, and forecast of climate change effects in the Alpine region.

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Climate Change Impacts on Groundwater Recharge in Cold and Humid Climates: Controlling Processes and Thresholds

Climate ◽

10.3390/cli10010006 ◽

2022 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

pp. 6

Author(s):

Emmanuel Dubois ◽

Marie Larocque ◽

Sylvain Gagné ◽

Marco Braun

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Groundwater Recharge ◽

Water Resource Management ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Temperature Changes ◽

Wide Range ◽

Long Term Changes ◽

Precipitation And Temperature

Long-term changes in precipitation and temperature indirectly impact aquifers through groundwater recharge (GWR). Although estimates of future GWR are needed for water resource management, they are uncertain in cold and humid climates due to the wide range in possible future climatic conditions. This work aims to (1) simulate the impacts of climate change on regional GWR for a cold and humid climate and (2) identify precipitation and temperature changes leading to significant long-term changes in GWR. Spatially distributed GWR is simulated in a case study for the southern Province of Quebec (Canada, 36,000 km2) using a water budget model. Climate scenarios from global climate models indicate warming temperatures and wetter conditions (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5; 1951–2100). The results show that annual precipitation increases of >+150 mm/yr or winter precipitation increases of >+25 mm will lead to significantly higher GWR. GWR is expected to decrease if the precipitation changes are lower than these thresholds. Significant GWR changes are produced only when the temperature change exceeds +2 °C. Temperature changes of >+4.5 °C limit the GWR increase to +30 mm/yr. This work provides useful insights into the regional assessment of future GWR in cold and humid climates, thus helping in planning decisions as climate change unfolds. The results are expected to be comparable to those in other regions with similar climates in post-glacial geological environments and future climate change conditions.

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Detecting Long-Term Dry Matter Yield Trend of Sorghum-Sudangrass Hybrid and Climatic Factors Using Time Series Analysis in the Republic of Korea

Agriculture ◽

10.3390/agriculture8120197 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 8 (12) ◽

pp. 197 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Befekadu Chemere ◽

Jiyung Kim ◽

Baehun Lee ◽

Moonju Kim ◽

Byongwan Kim ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Time Series Analysis ◽

Dry Matter ◽

Climatic Factors ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Republic Of Korea ◽

Dry Matter Yield ◽

The Republic ◽

Sorghum Sudangrass

Despite the gradual increase in livestock feed demands, the supply faces enormous challenges due to extreme climatic conditions. As the presence of these climatic condition has the potential to affect the yield of sorghum-sudangrass hybrid (SSH), understanding the yield variation in relation to the climatic conditions provides the ability to come up with proper mitigation strategies. This study was designed to detect the effect of climatic factors on the long-term dry matter yield (DMY) trend of SSH using time series analysis in the Republic of Korea. The collected data consisted of DMY, seeding-harvesting dates, the location where the cultivation took place, cultivars, and climatic factors related to cultivation of SSH. Based on the assumption of normality, the final data set (n = 420) was generated after outliers had been removed using Box-plot analysis. To evaluate the seasonality of DMY, an augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test and a correlogram of Autocorrelation Function (ACF) were used. Prior to detecting the effect of climatic factors on the DMY trend, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was fitted to non-seasonal DMY series, and ARIMA (2, 1, 1) was found to be the optimal model to describe the long-term DMY trend of SSH. ARIMA with climatic factors (ARIMAX) detected significance (p < 0.05) of Seeding-Harvesting Precipitation Amount (SHPA) and Seeding-Harvesting Accumulated Temperature (SHAMT) on DMY trend. This does not mean that the average temperature and duration of exposure to sunshine do not affect the growth and development of SSH. The result underlines the impact of the precipitation model as a major factor for the seasonality of long-term DMY of SSH in the Republic of Korea.

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On the influence of soil moisture on intra-annual peat soil dynamics as observed from SAR amplitude and phase data

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-18234 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Falco Bentvelsen ◽

Floris Heuff ◽

Susan Steele-Dunne ◽

Wolfgang Wagner ◽

Raphael Quast ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Soil Moisture ◽

Surface Soil ◽

Peat Soil ◽

Soil Dynamics ◽

Surface Elevation ◽

Driving Mechanism ◽

Surface Soil Moisture ◽

Precipitation And Temperature

Polders in the western Netherlands are often covered by pastures. Around 30 percent of the pastures are situated on peat soils, which are artificially drained. Consequently, the exposure to oxygen leads to a decomposition (oxidation) of the material and desiccation leading to shrinking. This results in a decadal subsidence, up to a few centimeters per year, which causes increasingly severe socio-economic impact. However, this long-term subsidence signal has a high spatial variability due to local soil morphology, and possibly high intra-annual temporal variability which is caused by precipitation and evaporation. The problem is that there are currently no geodetic methods that can reliably measure these soil dynamics over wide areas and with high temporal revisits.Here we show how Sentinel-1 SAR interferometry (InSAR) can potentially be used to estimate the surface displacements, given prior information on precipitation and temperature. We observe intra-annual dynamics of surface elevation which seem to be one order of magnitude stronger than the decadal long-term subsidence. InSAR surface elevation measurements show &#160;discontinuities (hysteresis) in late summer and early autumn due to strong vegetation and changes in temperature and precipitation patterns. As soil moisture variability appears to be the main driving mechanism for the observed surface elevation dynamics, we investigate whether we can use the amplitude of the identical SAR acquisitions to estimate the soil moisture directly, to reduce the dependency on external precipitation and temperature data.The analysis is performed on time series of the European Space Agency&#8217;s Sentinel-1 mission. Subsidence and upheaval are estimated using a novel InSAR algorithm, which was specially designed for peat soil dynamics. The surface elevation dynamics are compared to surface soil moisture estimates from Sentinel-1 amplitude &#160;data. Soil moisture is retrieved from backscatter time series using a first-order radiative transfer model (RT1) developed at TU Wien. This model describes the scattering behaviour of both soil- and vegetation by using linear combinations of idealized scattering distribution functions. Clay Soil swelling and subsidence are likely influenced by soil layers much deeper than those associated with the surface soil moisture estimates. Therefore, the subsidence estimates are also compared to Soil Water Index (SWI) derived from the surface soil moisture product. This is considered an indicator of moisture availability in the top 100 cm. These results show that the same complex SAR data acquisitions can be used simultaneously, but independently, for estimating soil moisture and for estimating surface elevation dynamics. An integrated application is proposed and evaluated for further exploration.

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Low-frequency variability of European runoff

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions ◽

10.5194/hessd-8-1705-2011 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 8 (1) ◽

pp. 1705-1727 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

L. Gudmundsson ◽

L. M. Tallaksen ◽

K. Stahl ◽

A. K. Fleig

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

River Flow ◽

Low Frequency ◽

Space Time ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Data Set ◽

Time Patterns ◽

Frequency Components ◽

The Impact ◽

Precipitation And Temperature

Abstract. This study investigates the low-frequency components of observed monthly runoff in Europe, to better understand the runoff response to long-term variations in the climate system. The relative variance and the dominant space-time patterns of the low-frequency components of runoff were considered, in order to quantify their relative importance and to get insights in to the controlling factors. The analysis of a recently updated European data set of observed streamflow and corresponding time series of precipitation and temperature, showed that the fraction of low-frequency variance of runoff is on average larger than, and not correlated to, the fraction of low-frequency variance of precipitation and temperature. However, it is correlated with catchment properties as well as mean climatic conditions. The fraction of low-frequency variance of runoff decreases for catchments that respond more directly to precipitation. Furthermore, it increases (decreases) under drier (wetter) conditions – indicating that the average degree of catchment saturation may be a primary control of low-frequency runoff dynamics. The dominant space-time patterns of low-frequency runoff, identified using nonlinear dimension reduction, revealed that low-frequency runoff can be described with three modes, explaining together 80.6% of the variance. The dominant mode has opposing centers of simultaneous variations in northern and southern Europe. The secondary mode features a west-east pattern and the third mode has its centre of influence in central Europe. All modes are closely related to the space-time patterns extracted from time series of precipitation and temperature. In summary, it is shown that the dynamics of low-frequency runoff follows large-scale atmospheric features, whereas the proportion of variance attributed to low-frequency fluctuations is controlled by catchment processes and varies with the mean climatic conditions. The results may have implications for interpreting the impact of changes in temperature and precipitation on river-flow dynamics.

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Using a water budget model to anticipate the impact of climate change on groundwater recharge at the regional scale in cold and humid climates - example of southern Quebec (Canada)

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6039 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Emmanuel Dubois ◽

Marie Larocque ◽

Sylvain Gagné

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Groundwater Recharge ◽

Water Budget ◽

Regional Scale ◽

Growing Season ◽

Annual Precipitation ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Budget Model ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

The Impact

In cold and humid climates, rivers and superficial water bodies are often fed by groundwater with relatively constant inflows that are most visible during the summer (limited net precipitation) and the winter (limited runoff and infiltration). The harsh winter &#8211; short growing season succession could be drastically affected by climate change. Although water is abundant, extreme low flows are expected in the near future, most likely due to warmer summer temperatures, increased summer PET and possible lower summer precipitation. It is thus crucial to provide stakeholders with scenarios of future groundwater recharge (GWR) to anticipate the impacts of climate change on groundwater resources at the regional scale. This study aims to test the contributions of a superficial water budget model to estimate the impact of climate change on the regional GWR. The methodology is tested in a forested and agricultural region of southern Quebec, located between the St. Lawrence River and the Canada-USA border, and between the Quebec-Ontario border and Quebec City (36,000 km&#178;). Scenarios of GWR for the region are simulated with the HydroBudget model, performing a transient-state spatialized superficial water budget, and 12 climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5, 1951-2100 period). The model was previously calibrated in the study area for the 1961-2017 period and provides spatially distributed runoff, actual evapotranspiration, and GWR fluxes at a 500 x 500 m resolution with a monthly time step. Climate scenarios show warming of the annual temperature from +2 to +5&#176;C and up to 20% increase of annual precipitation at the 2100 horizon compared to the 1981-2010 reference period. By the end of the century, the number of days above 0&#176;C could double between November and April, dividing by almost two the quantity of snow during winter. The clear trends of warming temperature leads to a clear actual evapotranspiration (AET) increase while the increasing variability in annual precipitation translates into more variable annual runoff and GWR. Although no annual GWR decrease is simulated, an increase of winter GWR (up to x2) is expected, linked to warmer winters and unfrozen soils, followed by a decrease for the rest of the year, linked to a longer growing season producing higher AET rates. Although simple in its simulation process, the use of a superficial water budget model simulating soil frost provides new insights into the possible future trends in the different hydrologic variables based on a robust understanding of past condition. Aside from providing scenarios of spatialized GWR (also runoff and AET) at the 2100 horizon for a large region, this study shows that a simple water budget model is an appropriate and affordable tool to provide stakeholders with useful data for water management in a changing climate.

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Prediction of long-term groundwater recharge by using hydropedotransfer functions

International Agrophysics ◽

10.2478/v10247-012-0065-z ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 27 (1) ◽

pp. 31-37 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

K. Miegel ◽

K. Bohne ◽

G. Wessolek

Keyword(s):

Differential Equation ◽

Transfer Function ◽

Groundwater Recharge ◽

Standard Error ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Actual Evapotranspiration ◽

Groundwater Depletion ◽

Site Conditions ◽

Hydrologic Processes

Abstract The investigations to estimate groundwater recharge were performed. Improved consideration of soil hydrologic processes yielded a convenient method to predict actual evapotranspiration and hence, groundwater recharge from easily available data. For that purpose a comprehensive data base was needed, which was created by the simulation model SWAP comprising 135 different site conditions and 30 simulation years each. Based upon simulated values of actual evapotranspiration, a transfer function was developed employing the parameter b in the Bagrov differential equation dEa/dP = 1- (Ea/Ep)b. Under humid conditions, the Bagrov method predicted long-term averages of actual evapotranspiration and groundwater recharge with a standard error of 15 mm year-1 (R = 0.96). Under dry climatic conditions and groundwater influence, simulated actual evapotranspiration may exceed precipitation. Since the Bagrov equation is not valid under conditions like these, a statistic-based transfer function was developed predicting groundwater recharge including groundwater depletion with a standard error of 26mm(R = 0.975). The software necessary to perform calculations is provided online.

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