scholarly journals Variability of low flow magnitudes in the Upper Colorado River Basin: identifying trends and relative role of large-scale climate dynamics

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 8779-8802 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Pournasiri Poshtiri ◽  
I. Pal

Abstract. Low flow magnitude in a head water basin is important for planners because minimum available amount of water in a given time period often leads to concerns regarding serious repercussions, in both up and downstream regions. This is a common scenario in arid region like Colorado River basin located in the southwestern US. Low flow variability in Colorado River is due to complex interactions between several natural and anthropogenic factors; but we aim to identify the relative role of climate on varying low flow magnitudes at different spatial locations. The research questions we aim to answer are: Is there a systematic variability in water availability during the driest time of a year or season? How does that vary across locations and is there a link between large-scale climate and low flow variations? Towards that aim we select 17 stream gauge locations, which are identified as "undisturbed" meaning that these stations represent near-natural river flow regimes in the headwater region of Colorado River, which provides a useful resource for assessment of climate and hydrology associations without the confounding factor of major direct (e.g. water abstraction) or indirect (e.g. land-use change) human modification of flows. A detailed diagnostic analysis gives us fair understanding on the variability of low flow magnitude that is explained by climate. We also present spatial heterogeneity of hydro-climatological linkages that is important for suitable adaptive management measures.

2017 ◽  
Vol 31 (26) ◽  
pp. 4705-4718 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christine A. Rumsey ◽  
Matthew P. Miller ◽  
Gregory E. Schwarz ◽  
Robert M. Hirsch ◽  
David D. Susong

2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 150-152
Author(s):  
Christine A. Rumsey ◽  
Matthew P. Miller ◽  
Gregory E. Schwarz ◽  
Robert M. Hirsch ◽  
David D. Susong

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 1501 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lawrence E. Stevens ◽  
Jeffrey Jenness ◽  
Jeri D. Ledbetter

The Colorado River basin (CRB), the primary water source for southwestern North America, is divided into the 283,384 km2, water-exporting Upper CRB (UCRB) in the Colorado Plateau geologic province, and the 344,440 km2, water-receiving Lower CRB (LCRB) in the Basin and Range geologic province. Long-regarded as a snowmelt-fed river system, approximately half of the river’s baseflow is derived from groundwater, much of it through springs. CRB springs are important for biota, culture, and the economy, but are highly threatened by a wide array of anthropogenic factors. We used existing literature, available databases, and field data to synthesize information on the distribution, ecohydrology, biodiversity, status, and potential socio-economic impacts of 20,872 reported CRB springs in relation to permanent stream distribution, human population growth, and climate change. CRB springs are patchily distributed, with highest density in montane and cliff-dominated landscapes. Mapping data quality is highly variable and many springs remain undocumented. Most CRB springs-influenced habitats are small, with a highly variable mean area of 2200 m2, generating an estimated total springs habitat area of 45.4 km2 (0.007% of the total CRB land area). Median discharge also is generally low and variable (0.10 L/s, N = 1687, 95% CI = 0.04 L/s), but ranges up to 1800 L/s. Water pH and conductivity is negatively related to elevation, with a stronger negative relationship in the UCRB compared to the LCRB. Natural springs water temperature and geochemistry throughout the CRB varies greatly among springs, but relatively little within springs, and depends on aquifer hydrogeology, elevation, and residence time. As the only state nearly entirely included within the CRB, Arizona is about equally divided between the two geologic provinces. Arizona springs produce approximately 0.6 km3/year of water. Data on >330 CRB springs-dependent taxa (SDT) revealed at least 62 plant species; 216 aquatic and riparian Mollusca, Hemiptera, Coleoptera, and other invertebrate taxa; several herpetofanual species; and two-thirds of 35 CRB fish taxa. Springs vegetation structure, composition, and diversity vary strongly by springs type, and plant species density within springs is high in comparison with upland habitats. Plant species richness and density is negatively related to elevation below 2500 m. Human population in and adjacent to the CRB are growing rapidly, and ecological impairment of springs exceeds 70% in many landscapes, particularly in urbanized and rangeland areas. Anthropogenic stressors are primarily related to groundwater depletion and pollution, livestock management, flow abstraction, non-native species introduction, and recreation. Ensuring the ecological integrity and sustainability of CRB groundwater supplies and springs will require more thorough basic inventory, assessment, research, information management, and local ecosystem rehabilitation, as well as improved groundwater and springs conservation policy.


2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 323-343 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oliver López ◽  
Rasmus Houborg ◽  
Matthew Francis McCabe

Abstract. Advances in space-based observations have provided the capacity to develop regional- to global-scale estimates of evaporation, offering insights into this key component of the hydrological cycle. However, the evaluation of large-scale evaporation retrievals is not a straightforward task. While a number of studies have intercompared a range of these evaporation products by examining the variance amongst them, or by comparison of pixel-scale retrievals against ground-based observations, there is a need to explore more appropriate techniques to comprehensively evaluate remote-sensing-based estimates. One possible approach is to establish the level of product agreement between related hydrological components: for instance, how well do evaporation patterns and response match with precipitation or water storage changes? To assess the suitability of this consistency-based approach for evaluating evaporation products, we focused our investigation on four globally distributed basins in arid and semi-arid environments, comprising the Colorado River basin, Niger River basin, Aral Sea basin, and Lake Eyre basin. In an effort to assess retrieval quality, three satellite-based global evaporation products based on different methodologies and input data, including CSIRO-PML, the MODIS Global Evapotranspiration product (MOD16), and Global Land Evaporation: the Amsterdam Methodology (GLEAM), were evaluated against rainfall data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) along with Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) water storage anomalies. To ensure a fair comparison, we evaluated consistency using a degree correlation approach after transforming both evaporation and precipitation data into spherical harmonics. Overall we found no persistent hydrological consistency in these dryland environments. Indeed, the degree correlation showed oscillating values between periods of low and high water storage changes, with a phase difference of about 2–3 months. Interestingly, after imposing a simple lag in GRACE data to account for delayed surface runoff or baseflow components, an improved match in terms of degree correlation was observed in the Niger River basin. Significant improvements to the degree correlations (from  ∼  0 to about 0.6) were also found in the Colorado River basin for both the CSIRO-PML and GLEAM products, while MOD16 showed only half of that improvement. In other basins, the variability in the temporal pattern of degree correlations remained considerable and hindered any clear differentiation between the evaporation products. Even so, it was found that a constant lag of 2 months provided a better fit compared to other alternatives, including a zero lag. From a product assessment perspective, no significant or persistent advantage could be discerned across any of the three evaporation products in terms of a sustained hydrological consistency with precipitation and water storage anomaly data. As a result, our analysis has implications in terms of the confidence that can be placed in independent retrievals of the hydrological cycle, raises questions on inter-product quality, and highlights the need for additional techniques to evaluate large-scale products.


2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (23) ◽  
pp. 8181-8203 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Hoerling ◽  
J. Barsugli ◽  
B. Livneh ◽  
J. Eischeid ◽  
X. Quan ◽  
...  

Abstract Upper Colorado River basin streamflow has declined by roughly 20% over the last century of the instrumental period, based on estimates of naturalized flow above Lees Ferry. Here we assess factors causing the decline and evaluate the premise that rising surface temperatures have been mostly responsible. We use an event attribution framework involving parallel sets of global model experiments with and without climate change drivers. We demonstrate that climate change forcing has acted to reduce Upper Colorado River basin streamflow during this period by about 10% (with uncertainty range of 6%–14% reductions). The magnitude of the observed flow decline is found to be inconsistent with natural variability alone, and approximately one-half of the observed flow decline is judged to have resulted from long-term climate change. Each of three different global models used herein indicates that climate change forcing during the last century has acted to increase surface temperature (~+1.2°C) and decrease precipitation (~−3%). Using large ensemble methods, we diagnose the separate effects of temperature and precipitation changes on Upper Colorado River streamflow. Precipitation change is found to be the most consequential factor owing to its amplified impact on flow resulting from precipitation elasticity (percent change in streamflow per percent change in precipitation) of ~2. We confirm that warming has also driven streamflow declines, as inferred from empirical studies, although operating as a secondary factor. Our finding of a modest −2.5% °C−1 temperature sensitivity, on the basis of our best model-derived estimate, indicates that only about one-third of the attributable climate change signal in Colorado River decline resulted from warming, whereas about two-thirds resulted from precipitation decline.


GeoJournal ◽  
1992 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 381-388 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. T. C. Chang ◽  
J. L. Foster ◽  
A. Rango

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