scholarly journals The influence of antecedent conditions on flood risk in sub-Saharan Africa

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Konstantinos Bischiniotis ◽  
Bart van den Hurk ◽  
Brenden Jongman ◽  
Erin Coughlan de Perez ◽  
Ted Veldkamp ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Antecedent Conditions ◽  
Seasonal Scale ◽  
Additional Input ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Flood Generation

Abstract. Most flood early warning systems have predominantly focused on forecasting floods with lead times of hours or days. However, physical processes during longer – seasonal – time scales can also contribute to flood generation. In this study, the hydro-meteorological pre-conditions of 501 historical damaging flood events over the period 1980 to 2010 in sub-Saharan Africa are analyzed. These are separated into a) a short-term weather scale period (0–7 days) and b) a long-term seasonal-scale period (up to 6 months) before the flood event. Total 7-day precipitation is used to evaluate weather-scale conditions, while seasonal-scale conditions are reflected in the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Although the latter has been used for drought detection, because of its characteristics can also become a wetness monitoring tool. Results indicate that, although heavy 7-day lead precipitation is connected with the majority of the reported floods (72 %), more than 50 % of all floods exhibited higher than average antecedent conditions during the 6 preceding months. In case of extremely wet weather and seasonal scale conditions (SPEI > 2) the probability of flood is close to 50 %. The combined analysis of the two periods revealed that seasonal-scale information should not be neglected, and seasonal SPEI information could be a useful – additional – input to the weather-scale flood forecasts to improve flood preparedness.

scholarly journals The influence of antecedent conditions on flood risk in sub-Saharan Africa

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 271-285 ◽  
Author(s):  
Konstantinos Bischiniotis ◽  
Bart van den Hurk ◽  
Brenden Jongman ◽  
Erin Coughlan de Perez ◽  
Ted Veldkamp ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Flood Risk ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Pragmatic Approach ◽  
Physical Processes ◽  
Antecedent Conditions ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Flood Generation

Abstract. Most flood early warning systems have predominantly focused on forecasting floods with lead times of hours or days. However, physical processes during longer timescales can also contribute to flood generation. In this study, we follow a pragmatic approach to analyse the hydro-meteorological pre-conditions of 501 historical damaging floods from 1980 to 2010 in sub-Saharan Africa. These are separated into (a) weather timescale (0–6 days) and (b) seasonal timescale conditions (up to 6 months) before the event. The 7-day precipitation preceding a flood event (PRE7) and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) are analysed for the two timescale domains, respectively. Results indicate that high PRE7 does not always generate floods by itself. Seasonal SPEIs, which are not directly correlated with PRE7, exhibit positive (wet) values prior to most flood events across different averaging times, indicating a relationship with flooding. This paper provides evidence that bringing together weather and seasonal conditions can lead to improved flood risk preparedness.

scholarly journals A slow rainy season onset is a reliable harbinger of drought in most food insecure regions in Sub-Saharan Africa

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. e0242883
Author(s):  
Shraddhanand Shukla ◽  
Greg Husak ◽  
William Turner ◽  
Frank Davenport ◽  
Chris Funk ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Rainy Season ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Onset Date ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Seasonal Drought ◽  
Drought Conditions ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Emergency Food Assistance

Since 2015, Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has experienced an unprecedented rise in acute food insecurity (AFI), and current projections for the year 2020 indicate that more than 100 million Africans are estimated to receive emergency food assistance. Climate-driven drought is one of the main contributing factors to AFI, and timely and appropriate actions can be taken to mitigate impacts of AFI on lives and livelihoods through early warning systems. To support this goal, we use observations of peak Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as an indicator of seasonal drought conditions following a rainy season to show that delays in the onset of the rainy season (onset date) can be an effective early indicator of seasonal drought conditions. The core of this study is an evaluation of the relationship of the onset dates and peak NDVI, stratified by AFI risks, calculated using AFI reports by the United States Agency of International Development (USAID)-funded Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET). Several parts of SSA, mostly located in East Africa (EA), reported the “Crisis” phase of AFI—requiring emergency food assistance—at least one-third of the time between April 2011 to present. The results show that the onset date can effectively explain much of the interannual variability in peak NDVI in the regions with the highest AFI risk level, particularly in EA where the median of correlation (across all the Administrative Unit 2) varies between -0.42 to -0.68. In general, an onset date delay of at least 1 dekad (10 days) increases the likelihood of seasonal drought conditions. In the regions with highest risks of AFI, an onset delay of just 1 dekad doubles the chance of the standardized anomaly of peak NDVI being below -1, making a -1 anomaly the most probable outcome. In those regions, a 2-dekads delay in the onset date is associated with a very high probability (50%) of seasonal drought conditions (-1 standardized anomaly of NDVI). Finally, a multivariate regression analysis between standardized anomaly and onset date anomaly further substantiates the negative impacts of delay in onset date on NDVI anomaly. This relationship is statistically significant over the SSA as a whole, particularly in the EA region. These results imply that the onset date can be used as an additional critical tool to provide alerts of seasonal drought development in the most food-insecure regions of SSA. Early warning systems using onset date as a tool can help trigger effective mid-season responses to save human lives, livestock, and livelihoods, and, therefore, mitigate the adverse impacts of drought hazards.

Sovereign Wealth Funds and Long-Term Investments in Sub-Saharan Africa

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Boubacar Diallo ◽  
Fulbert Tchana Tchana ◽  
Albert G. Zeufack
Keyword(s):  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Sovereign Wealth Funds ◽  
Sub Saharan

scholarly journals Mapping of affordability levels for photovoltaic-based electricity generation in the solar belt of sub-Saharan Africa, East Asia and South Asia

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sándor Szabó ◽  
Irene Pinedo Pascua ◽  
Daniel Puig ◽  
Magda Moner-Girona ◽  
Mario Negre ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
South Asia ◽  
Electricity Generation ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Solar Photovoltaic ◽  
Term Operation ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
High Level ◽  
Do So

AbstractLack of access to modern forms of energy hampers efforts to reduce poverty. The provision of electricity to off-grid communities is therefore a long-standing developmental goal. Yet, many off-grid electrification projects neglect mid- and long-term operation and maintenance costs. When this is the case, electricity services are unlikely to be affordable to the communities that are the project’s primary target. Here we show that, compared with diesel-powered electricity generation systems, solar photovoltaic systems are more affordable to no less than 36% of the unelectrified populations in East Asia, South Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa. We do so by developing geo-referenced estimates of affordability at a high level of resolution (1 km2). The analysis illustrates the differences in affordability that may be found at the subnational level, which underscores that electrification investments should be informed by subnational data.

A cholera outbreak among semi-nomadic pastoralists in northeastern Uganda: epidemiology and interventions

2011 ◽  
Vol 140 (8) ◽  
pp. 1376-1385 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. J. CUMMINGS ◽  
J. F. WAMALA ◽  
M. EYURA ◽  
M. MALIMBO ◽  
M. E. OMEKE ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Female Gender ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Cholera Outbreak ◽  
Community Based ◽  
Nomadic Pastoralists ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Water And Sanitation Infrastructure ◽  
Sanitation Infrastructure ◽  
Village Health Teams

SUMMARYIn sub-Saharan Africa, many nomadic pastoralists have begun to settle in permanent communities as a result of long-term water, food, and civil insecurity. Little is known about the epidemiology of cholera in these emerging semi-nomadic populations. We report the results of a case-control study conducted during a cholera outbreak among semi-nomadic pastoralists in the Karamoja sub-region of northeastern Uganda in 2010. Data from 99 cases and 99 controls were analysed. In multivariate analyses, risk factors identified were: residing in the same household as another cholera case [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 6·67, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2·83–15·70], eating roadside food (aOR 2·91, 95% CI 1·24–6·81), not disposing of children's faeces in a latrine (aOR 15·76, 95% CI 1·54–161·25), not treating drinking water with chlorine (aOR 3·86, 95% CI 1·63–9·14), female gender (aOR 2·43, 95% CI 1·09–5·43), and childhood age (10–17 years) (aOR 7·14, 95% CI 1·97–25·83). This is the first epidemiological study of cholera reported from a setting of semi-nomadic pastoralism in sub-Saharan Africa. Public health interventions among semi-nomadic pastoralists should include a two-faceted approach to cholera prevention: intensive health education programmes to address behaviours inherited from insecure nomadic lifestyles, as well as improvements in water and sanitation infrastructure. The utilization of community-based village health teams provides an important method of implementing such activities.

Cost determination and sustainable financing for rural water services in sub-Saharan Africa

Water Policy ◽  
2007 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 373-391 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter A. Harvey
Keyword(s):  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Water Services ◽  
Innovative Strategies ◽  
Water Users ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Cost ◽  
National Governments ◽  
Cost Determination ◽  
Sustainable Financing

Access to safe, sufficient and affordable water in rural Africa will not increase unless sustainable financing strategies are developed which ensure the sustainability of existing water services. There is a strong need for international donors and national governments to confront the true costs associated with sustained service provision in order to develop practicable long-term financing mechanisms. This paper presents a systematic approach that can be applied to determine the overall cost of service delivery based on respective cost estimates for operation and maintenance, institutional support, and rehabilitation and expansion. This can then be used to develop a tariff hierarchy which clearly indicates the cost to water users of different levels of cost recovery, and which can be used as a planning tool for implementing agencies. Community financing mechanisms to ensure sustained payment of tariffs must be matched to specific communities and their economic characteristics; a blanket approach is unlikely to function effectively. Innovative strategies are also needed to ensure that the rural poor are adequately served, for which a realistic, targeted and transparent approach to subsidy is required.

scholarly journals Educational Gender Inequality in Sub‐Saharan Africa: A Long‐Term Perspective

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joerg Baten ◽  
Michiel de Haas ◽  
Elisabeth Kempter ◽  
Felix Meier zu Selhausen
Keyword(s):  
Gender Inequality ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Sub Saharan

scholarly journals Aging, Health, and Quality of Life for Older People Living With HIV in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Review and Proposed Conceptual Framework

2017 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 109-138 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark J. Siedner
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Conceptual Framework ◽  
Care Delivery ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
People Living With Hiv ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Living With Hiv ◽  
The Impact

Objective: The number of people living with HIV (PLWH) over 50 years old in sub-Saharan Africa is predicted to triple in the coming decades, to 6-10 million. Yet, there is a paucity of data on the determinants of health and quality of life for older PLWH in the region. Methods: A review was undertaken to describe the impact of HIV infection on aging for PLWH in sub-Saharan Africa. Results: We (a) summarize the pathophysiology and epidemiology of aging with HIV in resource-rich settings, and (b) describe how these relationships might differ in sub-Saharan Africa, (c) propose a conceptual framework to describe determinants of quality of life for older PLWH, and (d) suggest priority research areas needed to ensure long-term gains in quality of life for PLWH in the region. Conclusions: Differences in traditional, lifestyle, and envirnomental risk factors, as well as unique features of HIV epidemiology and care delivery appear to substantially alter the contribution of HIV to aging in sub-Saharan Africa. Meanwhile, unique preferences and conceptualizations of quality of life will require novel measurement and intervention tools. An expanded research and public health infrastructure is needed to ensure that gains made in HIV prevention and treamtent are translated into long-term benefits in this region.

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