scholarly journals What are the prospects for seasonal prediction of the marine environment of the North-west European Shelf?

Ocean Science ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 887-909 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Tinker ◽  
Justin Krijnen ◽  
Richard Wood ◽  
Rosa Barciela ◽  
Stephen R. Dye
Keyword(s):  
Marine Environment ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Seasonal Forecast ◽  
The State ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Dynamic Downscaling ◽  
North West ◽  
Annual Variability ◽  
The North ◽  
European Shelf

Abstract. Sustainable management and utilisation of the North-west European Shelf (NWS) seas could benefit from reliable forecasts of the marine environment on monthly to seasonal timescales. Recent advances in global seasonal forecast systems and regional marine reanalyses for the NWS allow us to investigate the potential for seasonal forecasts of the state of the NWS. We identify three possible approaches to address this issue: (A) basing NWS seasonal forecasts directly on output from the Met Office's GloSea5 global seasonal forecast system; (B) developing empirical downscaling relationships between large-scale climate drivers predicted by GloSea5 and the state of the NWS; and (C) dynamically downscaling GloSea5 using a regional model. We show that the GloSea5 system can be inadequate for simulating the NWS directly (approach A). We explore empirical relationships between the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and NWS variables estimated using a regional reanalysis (approach B). We find some statistically significant relationships and present a skillful prototype seasonal forecast for English Channel sea surface temperature. We find large-scale relationships between inter-annual variability in the boundary conditions and inter-annual variability modelled on the shelf, suggesting that dynamic downscaling may be possible (approach C). We also show that for some variables there are opposing mechanisms correlated with the NAO, for which dynamic downscaling may improve on the skill possible with empirical forecasts. We conclude that there is potential for the development of reliable seasonal forecasts for the NWS and consider the research priorities for their development.

scholarly journals What are the prospects for seasonal prediction of the marine environment of the Northwest European shelf?

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Tinker ◽  
Justin Krijnen ◽  
Richard Wood ◽  
Rosa Barciela ◽  
Stephen R. Dye
Keyword(s):  
Marine Environment ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Research Priorities ◽  
Seasonal Forecast ◽  
The State ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Dynamic Downscaling ◽  
Annual Variability ◽  
European Shelf ◽  
Northwest European Shelf

Abstract. Sustainable management and utilisation of the Northwest European Shelf Seas (NWS) could benefit from reliable forecasts of the marine environment on monthly-to-seasonal timescales. Recent advances in global seasonal forecast systems, and regional marine reanalyses for the NWS, allow us to investigate the potential for seasonal forecasts of the state of the NWS. We identify three possible approaches to address this issue: A) basing NWS seasonal forecasts directly on output from the Met Office’s GloSea5 global seasonal forecast system; B) developing empirical downscaling relationships between large-scale climate drivers predicted by GloSea5, and the state of the NWS; and C) dynamically downscaling GloSea5 using a regional model. We reject A) after showing that the GloSea5 system is inadequate for simulating the NWS directly. Turning to B), we explore empirical relationships between the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and NWS variables estimated using a regional reanalysis. We find some statistically significant relationships, and present a skilful prototype seasonal forecast for English Channel sea surface temperature. We then consider the potential of C). We find large scale relationships between inter-annual variability in the boundary conditions and inter-annual variability modelled on the shelf, suggesting that dynamic downscaling may be possible. We also show that for some variables there are opposing mechanisms correlated to the NAO, for which dynamic downscaling may improve on the skill possible with empirical forecasts. We conclude that there is potential for the development of reliable seasonal forecasts for the NWS, and consider the research priorities for their development.

How well do seasonal forecasts reproduce European winter storm clustering and its relationship to large-scale climate drivers?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Angus ◽  
Gregor Leckebusch
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Model ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Seasonal Forecast ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Annual Variability ◽  
The North ◽  
Explained Variance ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
Insight Into

<div>The inter-annual variability of the European windstorm season is dependent on a number of large-scale climate drivers and conditions, for example the North Atlantic Oscillation. For seasonal forecasts to provide valuable information to decision makers about the potential severity of the winter windstorm season, they must capture this relationship between large-scale climate drivers and seasonal windstorm frequency in advance. Here, we examine the performance of the latest state of the art ECMWF seasonal forecast product (SEAS5) in capturing this climate response. We apply a statistical model previously shown to well reproduce the explained behaviour of European windstorms from large-scale climate drivers (Walz et al. 2018) to SEAS5, and examine the choice of statistically significant drivers. The model applied is a stepwise Poisson regression approach to account for serial clustering within inter-annual variability of windstorms, the resultant of which categorizes each windstorm season as either active, neutral or inactive. In particular, we focus on the European region where the explained variance of the statistical model in observations is highest (Walz et al. 2018), the British Isles. In addition to comparing the performance of the model in SEAS5 and in observations, we examine which relationships are not recreated in the seasonal forecast successfully from a dynamical perspective, to provide further insight into the current ability of seasonal forecasts to represent European windstorm inter-annual variability.</div><div> </div><div>Reference:</div><div>Walz, M. A., Befort, D. J., Kirchner‐Bossi, N. O., Ulbrich, U., & Leckebusch, G. C. (2018). Modelling serial clustering and inter‐annual variability of European winter windstorms based on large‐scale drivers. <em>International Journal of Climatology</em>, <em>38</em>(7), 3044-3057.</div>

scholarly journals Towards Winter Seasonal Predictability of the North West European Shelf Seas

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Tinker ◽  
Leon Hermanson
Keyword(s):  
North Sea ◽  
Irish Sea ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
North West ◽  
Southern North Sea ◽  
The North ◽  
Predictive Skill ◽  
European Shelf ◽  
Shelf Seas ◽  
The Irish Sea

We investigate the winter predictability of the North West European shelf seas (NWS), using the Met Office seasonal forecasting system GloSea5 and the Copernicus NWS reanalysis. We assess GloSea5’s representation of NWS climatological winter and its skill at forecasting winter conditions on the NWS. We quantify NWS winter persistence and compare this to the forecast skill. GloSea5 simulates the winter climatology adequately. We find important errors in the residual circulation (particularly in the Irish Sea) that introduce temperature and salinity biases in the Irish Sea, English Channel, and southern North Sea. The GloSea5 winter skill is significant for SST across most of the NWS but is lower in the southern North Sea. Salinity skill is not significant in the regions affected by the circulation errors. There is considerable NWS winter temperature and salinity persistence. GloSea5 exhibits significant predictive skill above this over ∼20% of the NWS, but for most of the NWS this is not the case. Dynamical downscaling is one method to improve the GloSea5 simulation of the NWS and its circulation, which may reduce biases and increase predictive skill. We investigate this approach with a pair of case studies, comparing the winters of 2010/2011 and 2011/2012 (with contrasting temperature and salinity anomalies, and NAO state). While 2 years are insufficient to assess skill, the differences in the simulations are evaluated, and their implications for the NWS winter predictability are considered. The NWS circulation is improved (where it was poor in the GloSea5), allowing more realistic advective pathways for salinity (and temperature) and enhancing their climatological spatial distributions. However, as the GloSea5 SST anomaly is already well simulated, downscaling does not substantially improve this – in other seasons or for other variables, downscaling may add more value. We show that persistence of early winter values provides some predictive skill for the NWS winter SST, and that the GloSea5 system adds modestly to this skill in certain regions. Such information will allow prospective end-users to consider how seasonal forecasts might be useful for their sector, providing the foundation on which marine environmental seasonal forecasts service and community may be developed for the NWS.

scholarly journals Lifeform indicators reveal large‐scale shifts in plankton across the North‐West European shelf

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (6) ◽  
pp. 3482-3497
Author(s):  
Jacob Bedford ◽  
Clare Ostle ◽  
David G. Johns ◽  
Angus Atkinson ◽  
Mike Best ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
North West ◽  
The North ◽  
European Shelf ◽  
West European

scholarly journals Regionally extinct species rediscovered: the bush dog Speothos venaticus in Minas Gerais, south-eastern Brazil

Oryx ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
pp. 60-63 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guilherme Braga Ferreira ◽  
Marcelo Juliano Rabelo Oliveira ◽  
Rogério Cunha de Paula ◽  
Flávio Henrique Guimarães Rodrigues ◽  
Érica Daniele Cunha Carmo
Keyword(s):  
Protected Areas ◽  
Minas Gerais ◽  
The State ◽  
South American ◽  
North West ◽  
South Eastern ◽  
The North ◽  
Eastern Brazil ◽  
Bush Dog ◽  
Speothos Venaticus

AbstractThe bush dog Speothos venaticus, a rare Near Threatened South American canid that lives in packs, was thought to be extinct in Minas Gerais state, south-eastern Brazil, until recently. Here, we report four recent records of the species in Minas Gerais, the first in the state since the description of the species in 1842. All records are from the Cerrado ecosystem in the north and north-west of the state; two are from animals found dead, one from footprints and another from a camera trap. Three of the records were inside or close (< 10 km) to strict protected areas, in a region recognized as the Protected Areas Mosaic Sertão Veredas–Peruaçu, where we expect any new records of the bush dog to be found. We discuss the low probability of detecting the bush dog and the main regional threats to the species, and emphasize the need to protect large and interconnected natural areas and keep them free of domestic dogs to avoid the extinction of the bush dog in Minas Gerais.

SPATIAL LAYOUT OF THE SOVIET UNION TIMBER PROCESSING COMPLEX: THE IDEA BEHIND THE FIRST FIVE-YEAR PLAN

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 131-154
Author(s):  
Ivan V. ZYKIN
Keyword(s):  
Soviet Union ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Far East ◽  
Spatial Layout ◽  
Capital Investments ◽  
Wood Industry ◽  
North West ◽  
The North ◽  
The Soviet Union ◽  
Central Regions

During the years of Soviet power, principal changes took place in the country’s wood industry, including in spatial layout development. Having the large-scale crisis in the industry in the late 1980s — 2000s and the positive changes in its functioning in recent years and the development of an industry strategy, it becomes relevant to analyze the experience of planning the spatial layout of the wood industry during the period of Stalin’s modernization, particularly during the first five-year plan. The aim of the article is to analyze the reason behind spatial layout of the Soviet wood industry during the implementation of the first five-year plan. The study is based on the modernization concept. In our research we conducted mapping of the wood industry by region as well as of planned construction of the industry facilities. It was revealed that the discussion and development of an industrialization project by the Soviet Union party-state and planning agencies in the second half of the 1920s led to increased attention to the wood industry. The sector, which enterprises were concentrated mainly in the north-west, west and central regions of the country, was set the task of increasing the volume of harvesting, export of wood and production to meet the domestic needs and the export needs of wood resources and materials. Due to weak level of development of the wood industry, the scale of these tasks required restructuring of the branch, its inclusion to the centralized economic system, the direction of large capital investments to the development of new forest areas and the construction of enterprises. It was concluded that according to the first five-year plan, the priority principles for the spatial development of the wood industry were the approach of production to forests and seaports, intrasectoral and intersectoral combining. The framework of the industry was meant to strengthen and expand by including forests to the economic turnover and building new enterprises in the European North and the Urals, where the main capital investments were sent, as well as in the Vyatka region, Transcaucasia, Siberia and the Far East.

scholarly journals Seasonal Forecasts of the Twentieth Century

2020 ◽  
Vol 101 (8) ◽  
pp. E1413-E1426 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antje Weisheimer ◽  
Daniel J. Befort ◽  
Dave MacLeod ◽  
Tim Palmer ◽  
Chris O’Reilly ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Seasonal Forecast ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Climate Anomalies ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Skill Scores ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
Forecast Models

Abstract Forecasts of seasonal climate anomalies using physically based global circulation models are routinely made at operational meteorological centers around the world. A crucial component of any seasonal forecast system is the set of retrospective forecasts, or hindcasts, from past years that are used to estimate skill and to calibrate the forecasts. Hindcasts are usually produced over a period of around 20–30 years. However, recent studies have demonstrated that seasonal forecast skill can undergo pronounced multidecadal variations. These results imply that relatively short hindcasts are not adequate for reliably testing seasonal forecasts and that small hindcast sample sizes can potentially lead to skill estimates that are not robust. Here we present new and unprecedented 110-year-long coupled hindcasts of the next season over the period 1901–2010. Their performance for the recent period is in good agreement with those of operational forecast models. While skill for ENSO is very high during recent decades, it is markedly reduced during the 1930s–1950s. Skill at the beginning of the twentieth century is, however, as high as for recent high-skill periods. Consistent with findings in atmosphere-only hindcasts, a midcentury drop in forecast skill is found for a range of atmospheric fields, including large-scale indices such as the NAO and the PNA patterns. As with ENSO, skill scores for these indices recover in the early twentieth century, suggesting that the midcentury drop in skill is not due to a lack of good observational data. A public dissemination platform for our hindcast data is available, and we invite the scientific community to explore them.

scholarly journals Scaling up: Renewable energy on Aboriginal lands in north west Australia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brad Riley
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Scaling Up ◽  
Benefit Sharing ◽  
Small Community ◽  
Renewable Energy Resources ◽  
North West ◽  
The North ◽  
History Of ◽  
Aboriginal Lands

This paper examines renewable energy developments on Aboriginal lands in North-West Western Australia at three scales. It first examines the literature developing in relation to large scale renewable energy projects and the Native Title Act (1993)Cwlth. It then looks to the history of small community scale standalone systems. Finally, it examines locally adapted approaches to benefit sharing in remote utility owned networks. In doing so this paper foregrounds the importance of Aboriginal agency. It identifies Aboriginal decision making and economic inclusion as being key to policy and project development in the 'scaling up' of a transition to renewable energy resources in the North-West.

Pulmonology service staff N orth­Western Federal District in 2015–2019

MedAlliance ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 91-101
Keyword(s):  
Healthcare System ◽  
Federal District ◽  
Continuous Medical Education ◽  
The State ◽  
Human Potential ◽  
Respiratory Morbidity ◽  
North West ◽  
The North ◽  
Service Staff ◽  
Regional Budgets

Introduction. Prior to detailed review of the North- West Federal District (NWFD) pulmonology service per- formance during the COVID-19 pandemic, it is especial- ly worthwhile to evaluate its human resourcing in the prepandemic period of 2015–2019, since the perfor- mance of pulmonology service largely depends on its staffing, moreover in conditions of restructuring and decreased number of pulmonology bedspace in hospi- tals. Мethods. In the course of the study, the authors have analysed human resourcing data for pulmonology profile within the state healthcare system in NWFD for the period of 2015–2019. The results were statistically processed and data analysis carried out using Micro- soft Office Excel and SPSS software. Results . In the state healthcare system medical institutions of the NWFD throughout 2015–2019, the number of regular pulm- onologists’ positions fluctuated unrhythmically. The number of pulmonologists (MDs) in NWFD grew 0.82% during the period of 2015–2019, for comparison, in the Russian Federation the growth for the same period was 32.08%. The number of operating pulmonology depart- ments remained practically the same, but the number of occupied positions constantly changed. Practically all the pulmonologists in the NWFD have a specialist certi- ficate, but the share of doctors with qualification grade remains insufficient, and is on the decrease. Statistical analysis demonstrated significant positive Pearson cor- relation between the number of pulmonologists and general respiratory incidence (0.74 р=0.04), mortality (0.756 р=0.003), and the number of occupied pulmo- nology bedspace (0.619 р=0.024). Conclusion. Today, pulmonology service human resourcing review is to be conducted taking into account respiratory morbidity and mortality and the need for pulmonology services among the general population. Currently, there is no sci- entifically justified regulatory framework for the deve- lopment of the pulmonology service in NWFD regions, while the work of such services depends very much on the regional budgets and medical services’ tariffs. The development and fast implementation of such compre- hensive measures as salaries’ increase, adequate social support, regular residential and non-residential courses of continuous medical education, professional networ- king, etc. will allow to maintain and holistically develop the human potential of the NWFD pulmonology service.

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