scholarly journals An empirical stochastic model of sea-surface temperatures and surface winds over the Southern Ocean

Ocean Science ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 755-770 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Kravtsov ◽  
D. Kondrashov ◽  
I. Kamenkovich ◽  
M. Ghil

Abstract. This study employs NASA's recent satellite measurements of sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea-level winds (SLWs) with missing data filled-in by Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), to construct empirical models that capture both intrinsic and SST-dependent aspects of SLW variability. The model construction methodology uses a number of algorithmic innovations that are essential in providing stable estimates of the model's propagator. The best model tested herein is able to faithfully represent the time scales and spatial patterns of anomalies associated with a number of distinct processes. These processes range from the daily synoptic variability to interannual signals presumably associated with oceanic or coupled dynamics. Comparing the simulations of an SLW model forced by the observed SST anomalies with the simulations of an SLW-only model provides preliminary evidence for the ocean driving the atmosphere in the Southern Ocean region.

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 1891-1936
Author(s):  
S. Kravtsov ◽  
D. Kondrashov ◽  
I. Kamenkovich ◽  
M. Ghil

Abstract. This study employs NASA's recent satellite measurements of sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-level wind (SLW) with missing data filled-in by Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), to construct empirical models that capture both intrinsic and SST-dependent aspects of SLW variability. The model construction methodology uses a number of algorithmic innovations that are essential in providing stable estimates of model's propagator. The best model tested herein is able to faithfully represent the time scales and spatial patterns of anomalies associated with a number of distinct processes. These processes range from the daily synoptic variability to interannual signals presumably associated with oceanic or coupled dynamics. Comparing the simulations of an SLW model forced by the observed SST anomalies with the simulations of an SLW-only model provides preliminary evidence for the climatic behavior characterized by the ocean driving the atmosphere in the Southern Ocean region.


2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 215-226 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. C. Jenkyns ◽  
L. Schouten-Huibers ◽  
S. Schouten ◽  
J. S. Sinninghe Damsté

Abstract. Although a division of the Phanerozoic climatic modes of the Earth into "greenhouse" and "icehouse" phases is widely accepted, whether or not polar ice developed during the relatively warm Jurassic and Cretaceous Periods is still under debate. In particular, there is a range of isotopic and biotic evidence that favours the concept of discrete "cold snaps", marked particularly by migration of certain biota towards lower latitudes. Extension of the use of the palaeotemperature proxy TEX86 back to the Middle Jurassic indicates that relatively warm sea-surface conditions (26–30 °C) existed from this interval (∼160 Ma) to the Early Cretaceous (∼115 Ma) in the Southern Ocean, with a general warming trend through the Late Jurassic followed by a general cooling trend through the Early Cretaceous. The lowest sea-surface temperatures are recorded from around the Callovian–Oxfordian boundary, an interval identified in Europe as relatively cool, but do not fall below 25 °C. The early Aptian Oceanic Anoxic Event, identified on the basis of published biostratigraphy, total organic carbon and carbon-isotope stratigraphy, records an interval with the lowest, albeit fluctuating Early Cretaceous palaeotemperatures (∼26 °C), recalling similar phenomena recorded from Europe and the tropical Pacific Ocean. Extant belemnite δ18O data, assuming an isotopic composition of waters inhabited by these fossils of −1‰ SMOW, give palaeotemperatures throughout the Upper Jurassic–Lower Cretaceous interval that are consistently lower by ∼14 °C than does TEX86 and the molluscs likely record conditions below the thermocline. The long-term, warm climatic conditions indicated by the TEX86 data would only be compatible with the existence of continental ice if appreciable areas of high altitude existed on Antarctica, and/or in other polar regions, during the Mesozoic Era.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Chandler ◽  
Petra Langebroek

<p>Proxy records and climate models suggest that the Last Interglacial (LIG, ~130 to 115 thousand years before present) was characterised by high-latitude air and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) slightly warmer than present, and by mean global sea level a few metres higher. Therefore, the LIG is widely used as an analogue for near-future oceanographic/climatic conditions. Of particular interest is the Antarctic Ice Sheet’s contribution to rapid sea level rise and to Southern Ocean surface freshening, in response to warming. In the Southern Ocean, existing LIG temperature reconstructions suffer from very high variance amongst a low number of individual records. Recent syntheses have focused on the LIG climatic optimum, but conditions during the penultimate glacial are also important for forcing transient climate or Antarctic Ice Sheet simulations. Here we use databases of modern core-top sediments to evaluate the strengths of SST proxies available in the Southern Ocean, and consider their likely sources of bias and variance. By selecting only those paleo-temperature reconstructions which we believe are reliable in this region, we then compile a Southern Ocean SST synthesis covering the penultimate glacial and the LIG. This longer temperature time series can be used as a basis for LIG ice sheet simulations or for climate model development.  </p>


1999 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 410-421 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Abelmann ◽  
Uta Brathauer ◽  
Rainer Gersonde ◽  
Rainer Sieger ◽  
Uli Zielinski

2021 ◽  
Vol 255 ◽  
pp. 106821
Author(s):  
H.J. Anderson ◽  
J.B. Pedro ◽  
H.C. Bostock ◽  
Z. Chase ◽  
T.L. Noble

2001 ◽  
Vol 106 (C2) ◽  
pp. 2387-2405 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. J. Emery ◽  
D. J. Baldwin ◽  
Peter Schlüssel ◽  
R. W. Reynolds

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