Storms drive outgassing of CO2 in the subpolar Southern Ocean

The subpolar Southern Ocean is a critical region where CO2 outgassing influences the global mean air-sea CO2 flux (FCO2). However, the processes controlling the outgassing remain elusive. We show, using a multi-glider dataset combining FCO2 and ocean turbulence, that the air-sea gradient of CO2 (∆pCO2) is modulated by synoptic storm-driven ocean variability (20 µatm, 1–10 days) through two processes. Ekman transport explains 60% of the variability, and entrainment drives strong episodic CO2 outgassing events of 2–4 mol m−2 yr−1. Extrapolation across the subpolar Southern Ocean using a process model shows how ocean fronts spatially modulate synoptic variability in ∆pCO2 (6 µatm2 average) and how spatial variations in stratification influence synoptic entrainment of deeper carbon into the mixed layer (3.5 mol m−2 yr−1 average). These results not only constrain aliased-driven uncertainties in FCO2 but also the effects of synoptic variability on slower seasonal or longer ocean physics-carbon dynamics.

A weather regime characterisation of winter biomass aerosol transport from southern Africa

During austral winter, a compact low cloud deck over the South Atlantic contrasts with clear sky over southern Africa, where forest fires triggered by dry conditions emit large amounts of biomass burning aerosols (BBAs) in the free troposphere. Most of the BBA burden crosses the South Atlantic embedded in the tropical easterly flow. However, midlatitude synoptic disturbances can deflect part of the aerosol from the main transport path towards southern extratropics. In this study, the first objective classification of the synoptic variability controlling the spatial distribution of BBA in southern Africa and the South Atlantic during austral winter (August to October) is presented. By analysing atmospheric circulation data from reanalysis products, a six-class weather regime (WR) classification of the region is constructed. The classification reveals that the synoptic variability is composed of four WRs, representing disturbances travelling at midlatitudes, and two WRs accounting for pressure anomalies in the South Atlantic. The WR classification is then successfully used to characterise the aerosol spatial distribution in the region in the period 2003–2017, in both reanalysis products and station data. Results show that the BBA transport towards southern extratropics is controlled by weather regimes associated with midlatitude synoptic disturbances. In particular, depending on the relative position of the pressure anomalies along the midlatitude westerly flow, the BBA transport is deflected from the main tropical route towards southern Africa or the South Atlantic. Moreover, the WRs accounting for midlatitude disturbances show organised transition sequences, which allow one to illustrate the evolution of the BBA northerly transport across the region in the context of a wave pattern. The skill in characterising the BBA transport shown by the WR classification indicates the potential for using it as a diagnostic/predictive tool for the aerosol dynamics, which is a key component for the full understanding and modelling of the complex radiation–aerosol–cloud interactions controlling the atmospheric radiative budget in the region.

Decadal Climate Oscillations, Synoptic Variability, and Ice Core Climate Proxy Records in the Ross Sea Region, Antarctica

<p>This thesis investigates synoptic variability in the Ross Sea region, Antarctica and develops geochemical proxies of this variability from an ice core record in Southern Victoria Land. Particular focus is given to the influence of decadal climate oscillations on synoptic conditions and potential records of these oscillations in ice core proxy records as long-­‐term records of these oscillations are important for understanding future climate change. I present an investigation of the joint influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) on variability in the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL), a dominant climatological feature that strongly influences the weather in the Ross Sea region. It is shown that the positive phase of each oscillation is associated with significant strengthening of the ASL, while negative phases are associated with a weakening. Through regression analysis I show that a simple linear combination of indices representing these oscillations can explain more than 40% of the geopotential height variance in the AS region at a seasonal scale and over 70% of the variance at an annual scale. These results are consistent with the known mechanisms of ENSO and SAM interaction in the region and show that while SAM is dominant hemispherically, ENSO is only influential in the Pacific Sector. Finally it is demonstrated that a simple model of linear reinforcement and interference between the oscillations describes their influence on the variability in the ASL better than models incorporating more complex interactions. Atmospheric back-­‐trajectory modeling and cluster analysis are used to investigate synoptic variability at the Gawn Ice Piedmont (GIP) ice core site in the Ross Sea Region, Antarctica. I identify two dominant air-­‐mass trajectory clusters: oceanic – cyclonic and continental trajectories. My analysis shows that oceanic – cyclonic trajectories peak during April (southern hemisphere winter), while continental trajectories reach their maximum during December (summer). A causal association is demonstrated between ENSO and the frequency of oceanic – cyclonic trajectories originating from the Ross Sea region. In contrast, it is shown that the Southern Annular Mode has little influence on the frequency of cyclonic clusters. I then develop proxy records for the synoptic variability using a shallow firn core from the GIP site containing 8 years of geochemical record. Continental trajectories correlate with concentrations of nitrate (NO3), which is sourced from stratospheric air-­‐masses descending over the Antarctic interior. Oceanic – cyclonic trajectory clusters strongly correlate with deuterium excess at seasonal and inter-­‐annual scales, a proxy sensitive to changes in relative humidity and sea surface temperature (SST) in the in the Ross and Amundsen Seas. Decadal variability in the frequency of oceanic – cyclonic trajectories is discussed with respect to ENSO, SAM, and changes in SST and sea ice extent.</p>

Decadal Climate Oscillations, Synoptic Variability, and Ice Core Climate Proxy Records in the Ross Sea Region, Antarctica

<p>This thesis investigates synoptic variability in the Ross Sea region, Antarctica and develops geochemical proxies of this variability from an ice core record in Southern Victoria Land. Particular focus is given to the influence of decadal climate oscillations on synoptic conditions and potential records of these oscillations in ice core proxy records as long-­‐term records of these oscillations are important for understanding future climate change. I present an investigation of the joint influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) on variability in the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL), a dominant climatological feature that strongly influences the weather in the Ross Sea region. It is shown that the positive phase of each oscillation is associated with significant strengthening of the ASL, while negative phases are associated with a weakening. Through regression analysis I show that a simple linear combination of indices representing these oscillations can explain more than 40% of the geopotential height variance in the AS region at a seasonal scale and over 70% of the variance at an annual scale. These results are consistent with the known mechanisms of ENSO and SAM interaction in the region and show that while SAM is dominant hemispherically, ENSO is only influential in the Pacific Sector. Finally it is demonstrated that a simple model of linear reinforcement and interference between the oscillations describes their influence on the variability in the ASL better than models incorporating more complex interactions. Atmospheric back-­‐trajectory modeling and cluster analysis are used to investigate synoptic variability at the Gawn Ice Piedmont (GIP) ice core site in the Ross Sea Region, Antarctica. I identify two dominant air-­‐mass trajectory clusters: oceanic – cyclonic and continental trajectories. My analysis shows that oceanic – cyclonic trajectories peak during April (southern hemisphere winter), while continental trajectories reach their maximum during December (summer). A causal association is demonstrated between ENSO and the frequency of oceanic – cyclonic trajectories originating from the Ross Sea region. In contrast, it is shown that the Southern Annular Mode has little influence on the frequency of cyclonic clusters. I then develop proxy records for the synoptic variability using a shallow firn core from the GIP site containing 8 years of geochemical record. Continental trajectories correlate with concentrations of nitrate (NO3), which is sourced from stratospheric air-­‐masses descending over the Antarctic interior. Oceanic – cyclonic trajectory clusters strongly correlate with deuterium excess at seasonal and inter-­‐annual scales, a proxy sensitive to changes in relative humidity and sea surface temperature (SST) in the in the Ross and Amundsen Seas. Decadal variability in the frequency of oceanic – cyclonic trajectories is discussed with respect to ENSO, SAM, and changes in SST and sea ice extent.</p>

Observations of Surface Currents and Tidal Variability Off of Northeastern Taiwan from Shore-Based High Frequency Radar

A network of high-frequency radars (HFRs) has been deployed around Taiwan. The wide-area data coverage is dedicated to revealing near real-time sea-surface current information. This paper investigates three primary objectives: (1) describing the seasonal current synoptic variability; (2) determining the influence of wind forcing; (3) describing the tidal current field pattern and variability. Sea surface currents derived from HFR data include both geostrophic components and wind-driven components. This study explored vector complex correlations between the HFR time series and wind, which was sufficient to identify high-frequency components, including an Ekman balance among the surface currents and wind. Regarding the characteristics of mesoscale events and the tidal field, a year-long high-resolution surface dataset was utilized to observe the current–eddy–tide interactions over four seasons. The harmonic analysis results derived from surface currents off of northeastern Taiwan during 2013 are presented. The results agree well with the tidal parameters estimated from tide-gauge station observations. The analysis shows that this region features a strong, mixed, mainly semidiurnal tide. Continued monitoring by a variety of sensors (e.g., satellite and HFR) would improve the understanding of the circulation in the region.

A weather regime characterisation of winter biomass aerosol transport from southern Africa

During austral winter, a compact low cloud deck over South Atlantic contrasts with clear sky over southern Africa, where forest fires triggered by dry conditions emit large amount of biomass burning aerosols (BBA) in the free troposphere. Most of the BBA burden crosses South Atlantic embedded in the tropical easterly flow. However, midlatitude synoptic disturbances can deflect part of the aerosol from the main transport path towards southern extratropics. In this study, a characterisation of the synoptic variability controlling the spatial distribution of BBA in southern Africa and South Atlantic during austral winter (August to October) is presented. By analysing atmospheric circulation data from reanalysis products, a 6-class weather regime (WR) classification of the region is constructed. The classification reveals that the synoptic variability is composed by four WRs representing disturbances travelling at midlatitudes, and two WRs accounting for pressure anomalies in the South Atlantic. The WR classification is then successfully used to characterise the aerosol spatial distribution in the region in the period 2003–2017, in both reanalysis products and station data. Results show that the BBA transport towards southern extratropics is controlled by weather regimes associated with midlatitude synoptic disturbances. In particular, depending on the relative position of the pressure anomalies along the midlatitude westerly flow, the BBA transport is deflected from the main tropical route towards southern Africa or the South Atlantic. This paper presents the first objective classification of the winter synoptic circulation over South Atlantic and southern Africa. The classification shows skills in characterising the BBA transport, indicating the potential for using it as a diagnostic/predictive tool for aerosol dynamics, which is a key component for the full understanding and modelling of the complex radiation-aerosol-cloud interactions controlling the atmospheric radiative budget in the region.

Can We Measure a COVID-19 Related Slowdown in Atmospheric CO2 Growth? Sensitivity of Total Carbon Column Observations

&lt;p&gt;The COVID-19 pandemic caused annual CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; emission reductions estimated up to -8 % for 2020. This approximately matches reductions required year-on-year to fulfill the Paris agreement. We pursue the question whether related atmospheric concentration changes may be detected by the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON), and brought into agreement with bottom-up emission-reduction estimates. We present an original mathematical framework to derive annual growth rates from TCCON observations. Our approach guarantees robust results for the non-equidistant&amp;#160; (clear-sky) sampling of solar absorption measurements of column-averaged carbon dioxide (XCO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;) and it includes for the first time a mathematically rigorous uncertainty calculation for annual growth rates. The min-max range of TCCON growth rates for 2012-2019 is [2.00, 3.27] ppm/yr with a largest one-year increase of 1.07 ppm/yr for 2015/16 caused by El Ni&amp;#241;o. Uncertainties are 0.38 [0.28, 0.44] ppm/yr limited by synoptic variability, including a 0.05 ppm/yr contribution from single-measurement precision. TCCON growth rates are linked to a UK Met Office forecast of a COVID-19 related reduction of -0.32 ppm yr&lt;sup&gt;-2&lt;/sup&gt; in 2020 for Mauna Loa. The separation of TCCON-measured growth-rates vs the reference forecast (without COVID-19) is discussed in terms of detection delay. A 0.6 [0.4, 0.7]-yr delay is caused by the impact of synoptic variability on XCO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;, including a &amp;#187;1-month contribution from single-measurement precision. A hindrance for detection of the COVID-19 related growth-rate reduction in 2020 is the &amp;#177;0.57 ppm/yr uncertainty for the forecasted reference case (without COVID-19). Assuming ongoing growth-rate reductions increasing year-on-year by -0.32 ppm yr&lt;sup&gt;-2&lt;/sup&gt; would allow a discrimination of TCCON measurements vs the unperturbed forecast and its uncertainty &amp;#8211; with a 2.4 [2.2, 2.5]-yr delay. Using no forecast but the max-min range of the TCCON-observed growth rates for discrimination only leads to a factor &amp;#187;2 longer delay. Therefore, forecast uncertainties for annual growth rates must be reduced. This requires improved terrestrial ecosystem models and ocean observations to better quantify the land and ocean sinks dominating interannual variability. The paper highlights the results of our first published study based on 4 midlatitude TCCON sites and gives an outlook to our ongoing work including all TCCON sites. TCCON will be a valuable basis to monitor the Paris process in the years to come.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Reference:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Sussmann, R., and Rettinger, M.: Can We Measure a COVID-19-Related Slowdown in Atmospheric CO2 Growth? Sensitivity of Total Carbon Column Observations, Remote Sens., 12, 2387, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12152387, 2020.&lt;/p&gt;

Ship- and island-based atmospheric soundings from the 2020 EUREC⁴A field campaign

To advance the understanding of the interplay among clouds, convection, and circulation, and its role in climate change, the Elucidating the role of clouds–circulation coupling in climate campaign (EUREC4A) and Atlantic Tradewind Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Interaction Campaign (ATOMIC) collected measurements in the western tropical Atlantic during January and February 2020. Upper-air radiosondes were launched regularly (usually 4-hourly) from a network consisting of the Barbados Cloud Observatory (BCO) and four ships within 6–16∘ N, 51–60∘ W. From 8 January to 19 February, a total of 811 radiosondes measured wind, temperature, and relative humidity. In addition to the ascent, the descent was recorded for 82 % of the soundings. The soundings sampled changes in atmospheric pressure, winds, lifting condensation level, boundary layer depth, and vertical distribution of moisture associated with different ocean surface conditions, synoptic variability, and mesoscale convective organization. Raw (Level 0), quality-controlled 1 s (Level 1), and vertically gridded (Level 2) data in NetCDF format (Stephan et al., 2020) are available to the public at AERIS (https://doi.org/10.25326/137). The methods of data collection and post-processing for the radiosonde data set are described here.