Application of Bias Correction to Improve WRF Ensemble Wind Speed Forecast

Surface wind speed forecast from an operational WRF Ensemble Prediction System (WEPS) was verified, and the system-bias representations of the WEPS were investigated. Results indicated that error characteristics of the ensemble 10-m wind speed forecast were diurnally variated and clustered with the usage of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme. To correct the error characteristics of the ensemble wind speed forecast, three system-bias representations with decaying average algorithms were studied. One of the three system-bias representations is represented by the forecast error of the ensemble mean (BC01), and others are assembled from each PBC group (BC03) as well as an independent member (BC20). System bias was calculated daily and updated within a 5-month duration, and the verification was conducted in the last month, including 316 gauges around Taiwan. Results show that the mean of the calibrated ensemble (BC03) was significantly improved as the calibrated ensemble (BC20), but both demonstrated insufficient ensemble spread. However, the calibrated ensemble, BC01, with the best dispersion relation could be extracted as a more valuable deterministic forecast via the probability matched mean method (PMM).

Error characteristics of a model-based integration approach for fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicles

The paper presents the error characteristics of a vehicle dynamic model (VDM)-based integration architecture for fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicles. Global navigation satellite system (GNSS) and inertial measurement unit measurements are fused in an extended Kalman filter (EKF) which uses the VDM as the main process model. Control inputs from the autopilot system are used to drive the navigation solution. Using a predefined trajectory with segments of both high and low dynamics and a variable wind profile, Monte Carlo simulations reveal a degrading performance in varying periods of GNSS outage lasting 10 s, 20 s, 30 s, 60 s and 90 s, respectively. These are followed by periods of re-acquisition where the navigation solution recovers. With a GNSS outage lasting less than 60 s, the position error gradually grows to a maximum of 8⋅4 m while attitude errors in roll and pitch remain bounded, as opposed to an inertial navigation system (INS)/GNSS approach in which the navigation solution degrades rapidly. The model-based approach shows improved navigation performance even with parameter uncertainties over a conventional INS/GNSS integration approach.

A Comprehensive Evaluation of Near-Real-Time and Research Products of IMERG Precipitation over India for the Southwest Monsoon Period

Precipitation is one of the integral components of the global hydrological cycle. Accurate estimation of precipitation is vital for numerous applications ranging from hydrology to climatology. Following the launch of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Core Observatory, the Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) precipitation product was released. The IMERG provides global precipitation estimates at finer spatiotemporal resolution (e.g., 0.1°/half-hourly) and has shown to be better than other contemporary multi-satellite precipitation products over most parts of the globe. In this study, near-real-time and research products of IMERG have been extensively evaluated against a daily rain-gauge-based precipitation dataset over India for the southwest monsoon period. In addition, the current version 6 of the IMERG research product or Final Run (IMERG-F V6) has been compared with its predecessor, version 5, and error characteristics of IMERG-F V6 for pre-GPM and GPM periods have been assessed. The spatial distributions of different error metrics over the country show that both near-real-time IMERG products (e.g., Early and Late Runs) have similar error characteristics in precipitation estimation. However, near-real-time products have larger errors than IMERG-F V6, as expected. Bias in all-India daily mean rainfall in the near-real-time IMERG products is about 3–4 times larger than research product. Both V5 and V6 IMERG-F estimates show similar error characteristics in daily precipitation estimation over the country. Similarly, both near-real-time and research products show similar characteristics in the detection of rainy days. However, IMERG-F V6 exhibits better performance in precipitation estimation and detection of rainy days during the GPM period (2014–2017) than the pre-GPM period (2010–2013). The contribution of different rainfall intensity intervals to total monsoon rainfall is captured well by the IMERG estimates. Furthermore, results reveal that IMERG estimates under-detect and overestimate light rainfall intensity of 2.5–7.5 mm day−1, which needs to be improved in the next release. The results of this study would be beneficial for end-users to integrate this multi-satellite product in any specific application.

Probabilistic Moment Capacity Models of Reinforced Concrete Slab Members for Underground Box Culverts

This study was performed to evaluate the probabilistic characteristics of the flexural strength of reinforced concrete (RC) flexural members adopted for underground box culverts. These probabilistic models were developed to be adopted for the development of limit state load combination formats for underground RC box culverts. The probabilistic models of uncertainties inherent in the basic design variables were developed to evaluate flexural strength using field material test data as well as field survey data collected from various domestic construction sites of underground box culverts in Korea. The basic design variables include concrete strength, steel rebar strength, and section dimensions, such as slab thickness and rebar locations. Some design variables are assumed to have inherent construction error characteristics, which may be different from those inherent in the RC members for buildings and bridges. The bias models on flexural strength were evaluated based on the experimental results of four-point flexural tests on one-way RC slabs, which were fabricated following the general practice adopted in the local underground box culvert construction process. Based on the probabilistic models of basic design variables, as well as the bias models of flexural strength, Monte Carlo simulations were performed to examine the probabilistic characteristics of both ultimate flexural strength and yield moment strength of RC slab members. Some sensitivity analyses were performed to confirm the soundness of various probability models and the assumptions adopted in the development procedure. The proposed procedure may be applied to develop probabilistic resistance models for structural members, in which the construction error characteristics are assumed to be different from other practices.

Modelling, characterization of data-dependent and process-dependent errors in DNA data storage

Using DNA as the medium to store information has recently been recognized as a promising solution for long-term data storage. While several system prototypes have been demonstrated, the error characteristics in DNA data storage are discussed with limited content. Due to the data and process variations from experiment to experiment, the error variation and its effect on data recovery remain to be uncovered. To close the gap, we systematically investigate the storage channel, i.e., error characteristics in the storage process. We first propose a new concept named sequence corruption to unify the error characteristics into the sequence level, easing the channel analysis. Then we derived the formulations of the data imperfection at the decoder including both sequence loss and sequence corruption, revealing the decoding demand and monitoring the data recovery. Furthermore, we extensively explored several data-dependent unevenness observed in the base error patterns and studied a few potential factors and their impacts on the data imperfection at the decoder both theoretically and experimentally. The results presented here introduce a more comprehensive channel model and offer a new angle towards the data recovery issue in DNA data storage by further elucidating the error characteristics of the storage process.