Melting over the northeast Antarctic Peninsula (1999–2009): evaluation of a high-resolution regional climate model

Abstract. Surface melting over the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) may impact the stability of ice shelves and thus the rate at which grounded ice is discharged into the ocean. Energy and mass balance models are needed to understand how climatic change and atmospheric circulation variability drive current and future melting. In this study, we evaluate the regional climate model MAR over the AP at a 10 km spatial resolution between 1999 and 2009, a period when active microwave data from the QuikSCAT mission is available. This model has been validated extensively over Greenland, has is applied here to the AP at a high resolution and for a relatively long time period (full outputs are available to 2014). We find that melting in the northeastern AP, the focus area of this study, can be initiated both by sporadic westerly föhn flow over the AP mountains and by northerly winds advecting warm air from lower latitudes. A comparison of MAR with satellite and automatic weather station (AWS) data reveals that satellite estimates show greater melt frequency, a larger melt extent, and a quicker expansion to peak melt extent than MAR in the centre and east of the Larsen C ice shelf. These differences are reduced in the north and west of the ice shelf, where the comparison with satellite data suggests that MAR is accurately capturing melt produced by warm westerly winds. MAR shows an overall warm bias and a cool bias at temperatures above 0 ∘C as well as fewer warm, strong westerly winds than reported by AWS stations located on the eastern edge of the Larsen C ice shelf, suggesting that the underestimation of melt in this region may be the product of limited eastward flow. At higher resolutions (5 km), MAR shows a further increase in wind biases and a decrease in meltwater production. We conclude that non-hydrostatic models at spatial resolutions better than 5 km are needed to better-resolve the effects of föhn winds on the eastern edges of the Larsen C ice shelf.

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Melting over the East Antarctic Peninsula (1999–2009): evaluation of a high-resolution regional climate model

10.5194/tc-2017-253 ◽

2017 ◽

Author(s):

Rajashree T. Datta ◽

Marco Tedesco ◽

Cecile Agosta ◽

Xavier Fettweis ◽

Peter Kuipers Munneke ◽

...

Keyword(s):

High Resolution ◽

Regional Climate Model ◽

Spatial Resolution ◽

Antarctic Peninsula ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Ice Shelf ◽

Circulation Patterns ◽

The Antarctic ◽

Microwave Data

Abstract. Surface melting over the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) plays a crucial role for the stability of ice shelves and dynamics of grounded ice, hence modulating the mass balance in a region of the world which is particularly sensitive to increasing surface temperatures. Understanding the processes that drive melting using surface energy and mass balance models is fundamental to improving estimates of current and future surface melting and associated sea level rise through ice-shelf collapse. This is even more important in view of both the paucity of in-situ measurements in Antarctica generally and the specific challenges presented by the circulation patterns over the Antarctic Peninsula. In this study, we evaluate the regional climate model Modèle Atmosphérique Régionale (MAR) over the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) at a 10 km spatial resolution between 1999 and 2009, a period which coincides with the availability of active microwave data from the QuikSCAT mission. This is the first time that this model, which has been validated extensively over Greenland, has been applied to the Antarctic Peninsula at a high resolution. We compare melt occurrence modeled by MAR with a combination of estimates from passive and active microwave data. Our primary regional focus is the northern East Antarctic Peninsula (East AP), where we evaluate MAR against wind and temperature data collected by three automatic weather stations (AWS). Our results indicate that satellites estimates show greater melt frequency, a larger melt extent, and a quicker expansion to peak melt extent than MAR in the center and east of the Larsen C ice shelf. The difference between the remote sensing and modeled estimates reduces in the north and west of the East AP. Melting in the East AP can be initiated by both sporadic westerly föhn flow over the AP and northerly winds advecting warm air from lower latitudes. To quantify MAR's ability to simulate different circulation patterns that affect melt, we take a unique approach to evaluate melt occurrence (using satellite data) and concurrent temperature biases associated with specific wind direction biases using AWS data over the Larsen Ice Shelf. Our results indicate that although MAR shows an overall warm bias, it also shows fewer warm, strong westerly winds than reported by AWS stations, which may lead to an underestimation of melt. The underestimation of föhn flow in the east of the Larsen C may potentially be resolved by removing the hydrostatic assumption in MAR or increasing spatial resolution. The underestimation of southwesterly flow in particular may be reduced by using higher-resolution topography.

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