Increasing mass loss from Greenland's Mittivakkat Gletscher

Abstract. Warming in the Arctic during the past several decades has caused glaciers to thin and retreat, and recent mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet is well documented. Local glaciers peripheral to the ice sheet are also retreating, but few mass-balance observations are available to quantify that retreat and determine the extent to which these glaciers are out of equilibrium with present-day climate. Here, we document record mass loss in 2009/10 for the Mittivakkat Gletscher (henceforth MG), the only local glacier in Greenland for which there exist long-term observations of both the surface mass balance and glacier front fluctuations. We attribute this mass loss primarily to record high mean summer (June–August) temperatures in combination with lower-than-average winter precipitation. Also, we use the 15-yr mass-balance record to estimate present-day and equilibrium accumulation-area ratios for the MG. We show that the glacier is significantly out of balance and will likely lose at least 70% of its current area and 80% of its volume even in the absence of further climate changes. Temperature records from coastal stations in Southeast Greenland suggest that recent MG mass losses are not merely a local phenomenon, but are indicative of glacier changes in the broader region. Mass-balance observations for the MG therefore provide unique documentation of the general retreat of Southeast Greenland's local glaciers under ongoing climate warming.

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Record mass loss from Greenland's best-observed local glacier

The Cryosphere Discussions ◽

10.5194/tcd-5-461-2011 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 5 (1) ◽

pp. 461-477

Author(s):

S. H. Mernild ◽

N. T. Knudsen ◽

W. H. Lipscomb ◽

J. C. Yde ◽

J. K. Malmros ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Mass Loss ◽

Mass Balance ◽

Winter Precipitation ◽

The Arctic ◽

Surface Mass ◽

Glacier Changes ◽

Glacier Front ◽

Temperature Records ◽

Current Area

Abstract. Warming in the Arctic during the past several decades has caused glaciers to thin and retreat, resulting in increased freshwater runoff to the ocean. Local glaciers peripheral to the ice sheet are also retreating, but few mass-balance observations are available to quantify that retreat and determine the extent to which these glaciers are out of equilibrium with present-day climate. Here, we document record mass loss in 2009/2010 for the Mittivakkat Glacier (henceforth MG), the only local glacier in Greenland for which there exist long-term observations of both the surface mass balance and glacier front fluctuations. We attribute this mass loss to record high mean summer (June–August) and higher-than-average winter (September–May) temperatures and to lower-than-average winter precipitation. Also, we use the 15-year mass-balance record to estimate present-day and equilibrium accumulation-area ratios for the MG. We show that the glacier is significantly out of balance and will likely lose approximately 70% of its current area and 80% of its volume even in the absence of further climate changes. Temperature records from coastal stations in Southeast Greenland suggest that recent MG mass losses are not merely a local phenomenon, but are indicative of glacier changes in the broader region. Mass-balance observations for the MG therefore provide unique documentation of the general retreat of Southeast Greenland's local glaciers under ongoing climate warming.

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On the recent contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to sea level change

The Cryosphere ◽

10.5194/tc-10-1933-2016 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 10 (5) ◽

pp. 1933-1946 ◽

Cited By ~ 212

Author(s):

Michiel R. van den Broeke ◽

Ellyn M. Enderlin ◽

Ian M. Howat ◽

Peter Kuipers Munneke ◽

Brice P. Y. Noël ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Mass Loss ◽

Mass Balance ◽

Sea Level ◽

Pore Space ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Sea Level Change ◽

Recent Contribution ◽

Surface Mass ◽

Level Change

Abstract. We assess the recent contribution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) to sea level change. We use the mass budget method, which quantifies ice sheet mass balance (MB) as the difference between surface mass balance (SMB) and solid ice discharge across the grounding line (D). A comparison with independent gravity change observations from GRACE shows good agreement for the overlapping period 2002–2015, giving confidence in the partitioning of recent GrIS mass changes. The estimated 1995 value of D and the 1958–1995 average value of SMB are similar at 411 and 418 Gt yr−1, respectively, suggesting that ice flow in the mid-1990s was well adjusted to the average annual mass input, reminiscent of an ice sheet in approximate balance. Starting in the early to mid-1990s, SMB decreased while D increased, leading to quasi-persistent negative MB. About 60 % of the associated mass loss since 1991 is caused by changes in SMB and the remainder by D. The decrease in SMB is fully driven by an increase in surface melt and subsequent meltwater runoff, which is slightly compensated by a small ( <  3 %) increase in snowfall. The excess runoff originates from low-lying ( <  2000 m a.s.l.) parts of the ice sheet; higher up, increased refreezing prevents runoff of meltwater from occurring, at the expense of increased firn temperatures and depleted pore space. With a 1991–2015 average annual mass loss of ∼  0.47 ± 0.23 mm sea level equivalent (SLE) and a peak contribution of 1.2 mm SLE in 2012, the GrIS has recently become a major source of global mean sea level rise.

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The effect of latent heat transport by waves on Greenland Surface Mass Balance

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-7006 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Tuomas Ilkka Henrikki Heiskanen ◽

Rune Grand Graversen

Keyword(s):

Mass Balance ◽

Heat Transport ◽

Latent Heat ◽

Energy Transport ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

The Arctic ◽

Surface Mass Balance ◽

Surface Mass ◽

Circulation Patterns

The Arctic region shows some of the world's most significant signs of climate change. The atmospheric energy transport plays an important role for the Arctic climate; the atmospheric transport contributes an amount of energy into the Arctic that is comparable to that provided directly by the sun. From recently developed Fourier and wavelet based methods it has been found that the planetary component of the latent heat transport affects that Arctic surface temperatures stronger than the decomposed dry-static energy transport and the synoptic scale component of the latent heat transport.&#160;A large concern for humanity is that the climate change in polar regions will lead to significant melting of the ice sheets and glaciers. In fact the discharge water from the Greenland ice sheet has recently increased to the extent that this ice sheet is one of the major contributorsto sea-level rise. Here we test the hypothesis that the recent rapid increase in melt of the Greenland ice sheet is linked to a shift of planetary-scale waves transporting warm and humid air over the ice sheet.The effect of the atmospheric energy transport is investigated by correlating the divergence of energy over the Greenland ice sheet with the surface mass balance of this ice sheet. The divergence of latent heat transport is found to correlate positively with the surface mass balance along the edges of the ice sheet, and negatively in the interior. This indicates that a convergence of latent at the edges of the ice sheet lead to a increased mass discharge from the ice sheet, whilst in the interior converging latent heat indicates an accumulation of mass to the ice sheet.&#160;To investigate the effect of transport by planetary and synoptic scale waves on the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance the mass flux component of the transport divergence is decomposed into wavenumbers through the application of a Fourier series. The divergences of transport contributions of each wavenumber are then correlated with the surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet. The correlations between the surface-mass balance and divergence of transport contributions by different wavenumbers reveals the relative impact of atmospheric circulation systems, such as Rossby waves and cyclones, on the Greenland ice sheet mass balance. Further, identifying shifts in the circulation patterns over Greenland by applying self organizing maps, or similar methods, and investigations of how these circulation patterns affect the energy transport over Greenland by atmospheric waves of different scales are also pursued. &#160; &#160;&#160;

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GrSMBMIP: Intercomparison of the modelled 1980-2012 surface mass balance over the Greenland Ice sheet

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-10792 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Xavier Fettweis ◽

Keyword(s):

Mass Loss ◽

Mass Balance ◽

Climate Models ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Ice Cores ◽

Surface Mass Balance ◽

Surface Mass ◽

Meltwater Runoff

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) mass loss has been accelerating at a rate of about 20 +/- 10 Gt/yr2 since the end of the 1990's, with around 60% of this mass loss directly attributed to enhanced surface meltwater runoff. However, in the climate and glaciology communities, different approaches exist on how to model the different surface mass balance (SMB) components using: (1) complex physically-based climate models which are computationally expensive; (2) intermediate complexity energy balance models; (3) simple and fast positive degree day models which base their inferences on statistical principles and are computationally highly efficient. Additionally, many of these models compute the SMB components based on different spatial and temporal resolutions, with different forcing fields as well as different ice sheet topographies and extents, making inter-comparison difficult. In the GrIS SMB model intercomparison project (GrSMBMIP) we address these issues by forcing each model with the same data (i.e., the ERA-Interim reanalysis) except for two global models for which this forcing is limited to the oceanic conditions, and at the same time by interpolating all modelled results onto a common ice sheet mask at 1 km horizontal resolution for the common period 1980-2012. The SMB outputs from 13 models are then compared over the GrIS to (1) SMB estimates using a combination of gravimetric remote sensing data from GRACE and measured ice discharge, (2) ice cores, snow pits, in-situ SMB observations, and (3) remotely sensed bare ice extent from MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Our results reveal that the mean GrIS SMB of all 13 models has been positive between 1980 and 2012 with an average of 340 +/- 112 Gt/yr, but has decreased at an average rate of -7.3 Gt/yr2 (with a significance of 96%), mainly driven by an increase of 8.0 Gt/yr2 (with a significance of 98%) in meltwater runoff. Spatially, the largest spread among models can be found around the margins of the ice sheet, highlighting the need for accurate representation of the GrIS ablation zone extent and processes driving the surface melt. In addition, a higher density of in-situ SMB observations is required, especially in the south-east accumulation zone, where the model spread can reach 2 mWE/yr due to large discrepancies in modelled snowfall accumulation. Overall, polar regional climate models (RCMs) perform the best compared to observations, in particular for simulating precipitation patterns. However, other simpler and faster models have biases of same order than RCMs with observations and remain then useful tools for long-term simulations. It is also interesting to note that the ensemble mean of the 13 models produces the best estimate of the present day SMB relative to observations, suggesting that biases are not systematic among models. Finally, results from MAR forced by ERA5 will be added in this intercomparison to evaluate the added value of using this new reanalysis as forcing vs the former ERA-Interim reanalysis (used in SMBMIP).&#160;

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On the recent contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to sea level change

10.5194/tc-2016-123 ◽

2016 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Michiel van den Broeke ◽

Ellyn Enderlin ◽

Ian Howat ◽

Peter Kuipers Munneke ◽

Brice Noël ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Mass Loss ◽

Mass Balance ◽

Sea Level ◽

Pore Space ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Sea Level Change ◽

Recent Contribution ◽

Surface Mass ◽

Level Change

Abstract. We assess the recent contribution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) to sea level change. We use the mass budget method, which quantifies ice sheet mass balance (MB) as the difference between surface mass balance (SMB) and solid ice discharge across the grounding line (D). A comparison with independent gravity change observations from GRACE shows good agreement for the overlapping period 2002–2015, giving confidence in the partitioning of recent GrIS mass changes. The estimated 1995 value of D and the 1958–1995 average value of SMB are similar at 411 and 418 Gt yr-1, respectively, suggesting that ice flow in the mid-nineties was well adjusted to the average annual mass input, reminiscent of an ice sheet in approximate balance. Starting in the early to mid-1990's, SMB decreased while D increased, leading to quasi-persistent negative MB. About 60 % of the associated mass loss since 1991 is caused by changes in SMB and the remainder by D. The decrease in SMB is fully driven by an increase in surface melt and subsequent meltwater runoff, which is slightly compensated by a small (< 3 %) increase in snowfall. The excess runoff originates from low-lying (< 2000 m a.s.l.) parts of the ice sheet; higher up, increased refreezing prevents runoff of meltwater to occur, at the expense of increased firn temperatures and depleted pore space. With a 1991–2015 average annual mass loss of ~ 0.47 ± 0.23 mm sea level equivalent (SLE) and a peak contribution of 1.2 mm SLE in 2012, the GrIS has recently become a major source of global mean sea level rise.

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Annual Greenland accumulation rates (2009–2012) from airborne snow radar

The Cryosphere ◽

10.5194/tc-10-1739-2016 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 10 (4) ◽

pp. 1739-1752 ◽

Cited By ~ 36

Author(s):

Lora S. Koenig ◽

Alvaro Ivanoff ◽

Patrick M. Alexander ◽

Joseph A. MacGregor ◽

Xavier Fettweis ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Mass Balance ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Ice Cores ◽

Snow Accumulation ◽

Ultra Wideband ◽

The Arctic ◽

Surface Mass Balance ◽

Accumulation Rates ◽

Surface Mass

Abstract. Contemporary climate warming over the Arctic is accelerating mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet through increasing surface melt, emphasizing the need to closely monitor its surface mass balance in order to improve sea-level rise predictions. Snow accumulation is the largest component of the ice sheet's surface mass balance, but in situ observations thereof are inherently sparse and models are difficult to evaluate at large scales. Here, we quantify recent Greenland accumulation rates using ultra-wideband (2–6.5 GHz) airborne snow radar data collected as part of NASA's Operation IceBridge between 2009 and 2012. We use a semiautomated method to trace the observed radiostratigraphy and then derive annual net accumulation rates for 2009–2012. The uncertainty in these radar-derived accumulation rates is on average 14 %. A comparison of the radar-derived accumulation rates and contemporaneous ice cores shows that snow radar captures both the annual and long-term mean accumulation rate accurately. A comparison with outputs from a regional climate model (MAR) shows that this model matches radar-derived accumulation rates in the ice sheet interior but produces higher values over southeastern Greenland. Our results demonstrate that snow radar can efficiently and accurately map patterns of snow accumulation across an ice sheet and that it is valuable for evaluating the accuracy of surface mass balance models.

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The effect of overshooting 1.5 °C global warming on the mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet

Earth System Dynamics ◽

10.5194/esd-9-1169-2018 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 9 (4) ◽

pp. 1169-1189 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Martin Rückamp ◽

Ulrike Falk ◽

Katja Frieler ◽

Stefan Lange ◽

Angelika Humbert

Keyword(s):

Global Warming ◽

Mass Loss ◽

Mass Balance ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

21St Century ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Surface Mass Balance ◽

Surface Mass

Abstract. Sea-level rise associated with changing climate is expected to pose a major challenge for societies. Based on the efforts of COP21 to limit global warming to 2.0 ∘C or even 1.5 ∘C by the end of the 21st century (Paris Agreement), we simulate the future contribution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) to sea-level change under the low emission Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 scenario. The Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) with higher-order approximation is used and initialized with a hybrid approach of spin-up and data assimilation. For three general circulation models (GCMs: HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC5) the projections are conducted up to 2300 with forcing fields for surface mass balance (SMB) and ice surface temperature (Ts) computed by the surface energy balance model of intermediate complexity (SEMIC). The projected sea-level rise ranges between 21–38 mm by 2100 and 36–85 mm by 2300. According to the three GCMs used, global warming will exceed 1.5 ∘C early in the 21st century. The RCP2.6 peak and decline scenario is therefore manually adjusted in another set of experiments to suppress the 1.5 ∘C overshooting effect. These scenarios show a sea-level contribution that is on average about 38 % and 31 % less by 2100 and 2300, respectively. For some experiments, the rate of mass loss in the 23rd century does not exclude a stable ice sheet in the future. This is due to a spatially integrated SMB that remains positive and reaches values similar to the present day in the latter half of the simulation period. Although the mean SMB is reduced in the warmer climate, a future steady-state ice sheet with lower surface elevation and hence volume might be possible. Our results indicate that uncertainties in the projections stem from the underlying GCM climate data used to calculate the surface mass balance. However, the RCP2.6 scenario will lead to significant changes in the GrIS, including elevation changes of up to 100 m. The sea-level contribution estimated in this study may serve as a lower bound for the RCP2.6 scenario, as the currently observed sea-level rise is not reached in any of the experiments; this is attributed to processes (e.g. ocean forcing) not yet represented by the model, but proven to play a major role in GrIS mass loss.

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Seasonal mass variations show timing and magnitude of meltwater storage in the Greenland ice sheet

10.5194/tc-2018-41 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Jiangjun Ran ◽

Miren Vizcaino ◽

Pavel Ditmar ◽

Michiel R. van den Broeke ◽

Twila Moon ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Mass Loss ◽

Mass Balance ◽

Climate Model ◽

Spatial Scales ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Surface Mass Balance ◽

High Accumulation ◽

Outlet Glacier ◽

Surface Mass

Abstract. The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is currently losing ice mass as the result of changes in the complex ice-climate interactions that have been driven by global climate change. In order to accurately predict future sea level rise, the mechanisms driving the observed mass loss must be better understood. Here, we combine data from the satellite gravimetry mission GRACE, surface mass balance (SMB) output of RACMO 2.3, and ice discharge estimates to analyze the mass budget of Greenland at various temporal and spatial scales. Firstly, in agreement with previous estimates, we find that the rate of mass loss from Greenland observed by GRACE was between −277 and −269 Gt/yr in 2003–2012. This estimate is consistent with the sum of individual contributions: surface mass balance (SMB, around 216 ± 122 Gt/yr) and ice discharge (520 ± 31 Gt/yr), indicating a good performance of the regional climate model. Secondly, we examine the average accelerations of mass anomalies in Greenland over 2003–2012, suggesting that the SMB (−23.3 ± 2.7 Gt/yr2) contributes 75 % to the total acceleration observed by GRACE. The remaining contributions to the mass loss acceleration for entire Greenland are statistically insignificant. Finally and most importantly, this study suggests the existence of a substantial meltwater storage during summer, with a peak value of 80–120 Gt in July. The robustness of this estimate is demonstrated by using both different GRACE-based solutions and different meltwater runoff estimates (namely, RACMO 2.3 and SNOWPACK). Meltwater storage in the ice sheet occurs primarily due to storage in the high-accumulation regions of the southeast (SE) and northwest (NW) parts of Greenland. Analysis of seasonal variations in outlet glacier discharge shows that the contribution of ice discharge to the observed signal is minor (at the level of only a few Gt) and does not explain the intra-annual differences between the total mass and SMB signals.

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Modeling the response of Greenland outlet glaciers to global warming using a coupled flow line–plume model

The Cryosphere ◽

10.5194/tc-13-2281-2019 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 13 (9) ◽

pp. 2281-2301 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Johanna Beckmann ◽

Mahé Perrette ◽

Sebastian Beyer ◽

Reinhard Calov ◽

Matteo Willeit ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Global Warming ◽

Mass Loss ◽

Mass Balance ◽

Sea Level ◽

Flow Line ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Surface Mass Balance ◽

Ocean Temperature ◽

Surface Mass

Abstract. In recent decades, the Greenland Ice Sheet has experienced an accelerated mass loss, contributing to approximately 25 % of contemporary sea level rise (SLR). This mass loss is caused by increased surface melt over a large area of the ice sheet and by the thinning, retreat and acceleration of numerous Greenland outlet glaciers. The latter is likely connected to enhanced submarine melting that, in turn, can be explained by ocean warming and enhanced subglacial discharge. The mechanisms involved in submarine melting are not yet fully understood and are only simplistically incorporated in some models of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Here, we investigate the response of 12 representative Greenland outlet glaciers to atmospheric and oceanic warming using a coupled line–plume glacier–flow line model resolving one horizontal dimension. The model parameters have been tuned for individual outlet glaciers using present-day observational constraints. We then run the model from present to the year 2100, forcing the model with changes in surface mass balance and surface runoff from simulations with a regional climate model for the RCP8.5 scenario, and applying a linear ocean temperature warming with different rates of changes representing uncertainties in the CMIP5 model experiments for the same climate change scenario. We also use different initial temperature–salinity profiles obtained from direct measurements and from ocean reanalysis data. Using different combinations of submarine melting and calving parameters that reproduce the present-day state of the glaciers, we estimate uncertainties in the contribution to global SLR for individual glaciers. We also perform a sensitivity analysis of the three forcing factors (changes in surface mass balance, ocean temperature and subglacial discharge), which shows that the roles of the different forcing factors are diverse for individual glaciers. We find that changes in ocean temperature and subglacial discharge are of comparable importance for the cumulative contribution of all 12 glaciers to global SLR in the 21st century. The median range of the cumulative contribution to the global SLR for all 12 glaciers is about 18 mm (the glaciers' dynamic response to changes of all three forcing factors). Neglecting changes in ocean temperature and subglacial discharge (which control submarine melt) and investigating the response to changes in surface mass balance only leads to a cumulative contribution of 5 mm SLR. Thus, from the 18 mm we associate roughly 70 % with the glaciers' dynamic response to increased subglacial discharge and ocean temperature and the remaining 30 % (5 mm) to the response to increased surface mass loss. We also find a strong correlation (correlation coefficient 0.74) between present-day grounding line discharge and their future contribution to SLR in 2100. If the contribution of the 12 glaciers is scaled up to the total present-day discharge of Greenland, we estimate the midrange contribution of all Greenland glaciers to 21st-century SLR to be approximately 50 mm. This number adds to SLR derived from a stand-alone ice sheet model (880 mm) that does not resolve outlet glaciers and thus increases SLR by over 50 %. This result confirms earlier studies showing that the response of the outlet glaciers to global warming has to be taken into account to correctly assess the total contribution of Greenland to sea level change.

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Brief communication: CESM2 climate forcing (1950–2014) yields realistic Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance

The Cryosphere ◽

10.5194/tc-14-1425-2020 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 14 (4) ◽

pp. 1425-1435 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Brice Noël ◽

Leonardus van Kampenhout ◽

Willem Jan van de Berg ◽

Jan T. M. Lenaerts ◽

Bert Wouters ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Mass Loss ◽

Mass Balance ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Earth System Model ◽

Climate Forcing ◽

System Model ◽

Surface Mass Balance ◽

Earth System ◽

Surface Mass

Abstract. We present a reconstruction of historical (1950–2014) surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) using a high-resolution regional climate model (RACMO2; ∼11 km) to dynamically downscale the climate of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2; ∼111 km). After further statistical downscaling to 1 km spatial resolution, evaluation using in situ SMB measurements and remotely sensed GrIS mass change shows good agreement. Comparison with an ensemble of previously conducted RACMO2 simulations forced by climate reanalysis demonstrates that the current product realistically represents the long-term average and variability of individual SMB components and captures the recent increase in meltwater runoff that accelerated GrIS mass loss. This means that, for the first time, climate forcing from an Earth system model (CESM2), which assimilates no observations, can be used without additional corrections to reconstruct the historical GrIS SMB and its recent decline that initiated mass loss in the 1990s. This paves the way for attribution studies of future GrIS mass loss projections and contribution to sea level rise.

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