scholarly journals The Wave Geometry of Final Stratospheric Warming Events

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy H. Butler ◽  
Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Planetary Scale ◽  
The North ◽  
Downward Influence ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
Total Column

Abstract. Every spring, the stratospheric polar vortex transitions from its westerly wintertime state to its easterly summertime state due to seasonal changes in incoming solar radiation, an event known as the final stratospheric warming (FSW). While FSWs tend to be less abrupt than reversals of the boreal polar vortex in midwinter, known as sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events, their timing and characteristics can be significantly modulated by atmospheric planetary-scale waves. Just like SSWs, FSWs have been found to have predictable surface impacts. While SSWs are commonly classified according to their wave geometry, either by how the vortex evolves (whether the vortex displaces off the pole or splits into two vortices) or by the dominant wavenumber of the vortex just prior to the SSW (wave-1 versus wave-2), little is known about the wave geometry of FSW events. We here show that FSW events for both hemispheres in most cases exhibit a clear wave geometry. Most FSWs can be classified into wave-1 or wave-2 events, but wave-3 also plays a significant role in both hemispheres. Additionally, we find that in the Northern Hemisphere, wave-2 events are more likely to occur later in the spring, while in the Southern Hemisphere, wave-1 or wave-2 events show no clear preference in timing. The FSW enhances total column ozone over the pole of both hemispheres during spring, but the spatial distribution of ozone anomalies can be influenced by the wave geometry and the timing of the event. We also describe the stratosphere's downward influence on surface weather following wave-1 and wave-2 FSW events. Significant differences between the tropospheric response to wave-1 and wave-2 FSW events occur over North America and over the Southern Ocean, while no significant differences are found over the North Atlantic region, Europe, and Antarctica.

The wave geometry of final stratospheric warming events

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy H. Butler ◽  
Daniela I.V. Domeisen
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Planetary Scale ◽  
The North ◽  
Downward Influence ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
Total Column

<p>Every spring, the stratospheric polar vortex transitions from its westerly wintertime state to its easterly summertime state due to seasonal changes in incoming solar radiation, an event known as the "final stratospheric warming" (FSW). While FSWs tend to be less abrupt than reversals of the boreal polar vortex in midwinter, known as sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events, their timing and characteristics can be significantly modulated by atmospheric planetary-scale waves. Just like SSWs, FSWs have been found to have predictable surface impacts. While SSWs are commonly classified according to their wave geometry, either by how the vortex evolves (whether the vortex displaces off the pole or splits into two vortices) or by the dominant wavenumber of the vortex just prior to the SSW (wave-1 versus wave-2), little is known about the wave geometry of FSW events. We here show that FSW events for both hemispheres in most cases exhibit a clear wave geometry. Most FSWs can be classified into wave-1 or wave-2 events, but wave-3 also plays a significant role in both hemispheres. Additionally, we find that in the Northern Hemisphere, wave-2 events are more likely to occur later in the spring, while in the Southern Hemisphere, wave-1 or wave-2 events show no clear preference in timing. The FSW enhances total column ozone over the pole of both hemispheres during spring, but the spatial distribution of ozone anomalies can be influenced by the wave geometry and the timing of the event. We also describe the stratosphere's downward influence on surface weather following wave-1 and wave-2 FSW events. Significant differences between the tropospheric response to wave-1 and wave-2 FSW events occur over North America and over the Southern Ocean, while no significant differences are found over the North Atlantic region, Europe, and Antarctica. </p>

scholarly journals The wave geometry of final stratospheric warming events

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 453-474
Author(s):  
Amy H. Butler ◽  
Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Planetary Scale ◽  
Tropospheric Circulation ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
Total Column

Abstract. Every spring, the stratospheric polar vortex transitions from its westerly wintertime state to its easterly summertime state due to seasonal changes in incoming solar radiation, an event known as the “final stratospheric warming” (FSW). While FSWs tend to be less abrupt than reversals of the boreal polar vortex in midwinter, known as sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events, their timing and characteristics can be significantly modulated by atmospheric planetary-scale waves. While SSWs are commonly classified according to their wave geometry, either by how the vortex evolves (whether the vortex displaces off the pole or splits into two vortices) or by the dominant wavenumber of the vortex just prior to the SSW (wave-1 vs. wave-2), little is known about the wave geometry of FSW events. We here show that FSW events for both hemispheres in most cases exhibit a clear wave geometry. Most FSWs can be classified into wave-1 or wave-2 events, but wave-3 also plays a significant role in both hemispheres. The timing and classification of the FSW are sensitive to which pressure level the FSW central date is defined, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) where trends in the FSW dates associated with ozone depletion and recovery are more evident at 50 than 10 hPa. However, regardless of which FSW definition is selected, we find the wave geometry of the FSW affects total column ozone anomalies in both hemispheres and tropospheric circulation over North America. In the Southern Hemisphere, the timing of the FSW is strongly linked to both total column ozone before the event and the tropospheric circulation after the event.

scholarly journals Intensified Impact of Winter Arctic Oscillation on Simultaneous Precipitation Over the Mid–High Latitudes of Asia Since the Early 2000s

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haibo Zhou ◽  
Ke Fan
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Rossby Waves ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Planetary Scale ◽  
The North ◽  
Subtropical Jet ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Ao Mode

This study reveals an intensified impact of winter (November–February mean) Arctic Oscillation (AO) on simultaneous precipitation over the mid–high latitudes of Asia (MHA) since the early 2000s. The unstable relationship may be related to the changes in the tropospheric AO mode and the subtropical jet. Further analyses suggest that their changes may be attributable to the interdecadal changes in the stratospheric polar vortex. During 2002–2017, the anomalously weak stratospheric polar vortex is accompanied by intensified upward-propagating tropospheric planetary-scale waves anomalies. Subsequently, the stratospheric geopotential height anomalies over the North Atlantic high-latitudes propagate downward strongly, causing the changes in the tropospheric AO mode, that is, the positive height anomalies over the North Atlantic high-latitudes are stronger and extend southward, corresponding to the stronger and eastward extension of negative height anomalies over the North Atlantic mid-latitudes. Thus, the Rossby wave source anomalies over Baffin Bay and the Black Sea are strong, and correspondingly so too are their subsequently excited the Rossby waves anomalies. Meanwhile, the planetary-scale waves anomalies propagate weakly along the low-latitude waveguide, causing the intensified and southward shift of the subtropical jet. Therefore, the strong Rossby waves anomalies propagate eastward to the MHA. By contrast, during 1979–1999, the strong stratospheric polar vortex anomaly is accompanied by weak upward-propagating planetary-scale waves anomalies, resulting in weaker height anomalies over the North Atlantic mid–high latitudes. Consequently, the anomalous Rossby waves are weak. In addition, the subtropical jet weakens and shifts northward, which causes the Rossby waves anomalies to dominate over the North Atlantic, and thereby the impact of winter AO on simultaneous precipitation over the MHA is weak.

scholarly journals On the relationship between total ozone and atmospheric dynamics and chemistry at mid-latitudes – Part 1: Statistical models and spatial fingerprints of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 147-164 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Frossard ◽  
H. E. Rieder ◽  
M. Ribatet ◽  
J. Staehelin ◽  
J. A. Maeder ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
Grid Cell ◽  
Atmospheric Dynamics ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
Total Column

Abstract. We use statistical models for mean and extreme values of total column ozone to analyze "fingerprints" of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry on long-term ozone changes at northern and southern mid-latitudes on grid cell basis. At each grid cell, the r-largest order statistics method is used for the analysis of extreme events in low and high total ozone (termed ELOs and EHOs, respectively), and an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model is used for the corresponding mean value analysis. In order to describe the dynamical and chemical state of the atmosphere, the statistical models include important atmospheric covariates: the solar cycle, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), ozone depleting substances (ODS) in terms of equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and aerosol load after the volcanic eruptions of El Chichón and Mt. Pinatubo. The influence of the individual covariates on mean and extreme levels in total column ozone is derived on a grid cell basis. The results show that "fingerprints", i.e., significant influence, of dynamical and chemical features are captured in both the "bulk" and the tails of the statistical distribution of ozone, respectively described by mean values and EHOs/ELOs. While results for the solar cycle, QBO, and EESC are in good agreement with findings of earlier studies, unprecedented spatial fingerprints are retrieved for the dynamical covariates. Column ozone is enhanced over Labrador/Greenland, the North Atlantic sector and over the Norwegian Sea, but is reduced over Europe, Russia and the Eastern United States during the positive NAO phase, and vice-versa during the negative phase. The NAO's southern counterpart, the AAO, strongly influences column ozone at lower southern mid-latitudes, including the southern parts of South America and the Antarctic Peninsula, and the central southern mid-latitudes. Results for both NAO and AAO confirm the importance of atmospheric dynamics for ozone variability and changes from local/regional to global scales.

Planetary Wave Breaking and Tropospheric Forcing as Seen in the Stratospheric Sudden Warming of 2006

2009 ◽  
Vol 66 (2) ◽  
pp. 495-507 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lawrence Coy ◽  
Stephen Eckermann ◽  
Karl Hoppel
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Wave Breaking ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Stratospheric Sudden Warming ◽  
Advanced Level ◽  
Earth Observing System ◽  
The North ◽  
Temperature Surface

Abstract The major stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) of January 2006 is examined using meteorological fields from Goddard Earth Observing System version 4 (GEOS-4) analyses and forecast fields from the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System–Advanced Level Physics, High Altitude (NOGAPS-ALPHA). The study focuses on the upper tropospheric forcing that led to the major SSW and the vertical structure of the subtropic wave breaking near 10 hPa that moved low tropical values of potential vorticity (PV) to the pole. Results show that an eastward-propagating upper tropospheric ridge over the North Atlantic with its associated cold temperature perturbations (as manifested by high 360-K potential temperature surface perturbations) and large positive local values of meridional heat flux directly forced a change in the stratospheric polar vortex, leading to the stratospheric subtropical wave breaking and warming. Results also show that the anticyclonic development, initiated by the subtropical wave breaking and associated with the poleward advection of the low PV values, occurred over a limited altitude range of approximately 6–10 km. The authors also show that the poleward advection of this localized low-PV anomaly was associated with changes in the Eliassen–Palm (EP) flux from equatorward to poleward, suggesting an important role for Rossby wave reflection in the SSW of January 2006. Similar upper tropospheric forcing and subtropical wave breaking were found to occur prior to the major SSW of January 2003.

Importance of Stratospheric Polar Vortex Events for Seasonal Predictability of Sea Level Pressure over the North Atlantic and Europe

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johanna Baehr ◽  
Simon Wett ◽  
Mikhail Dobrynin ◽  
Daniela Domeisen
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Seasonal Predictability ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

<p>The downward influence of the stratosphere on the troposphere can be significant during boreal winter when the polar vortex is most variable, when major circulation changes in the stratosphere can impact the tropospheric flow. These strong and weak vortex events, the latter also referred to as Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs), are capable of influencing the tropospheric circulation down to the sea level on timescales from weeks to months. Thus, the occurrence of stratospheric polar vortex events influences the seasonal predictability of sea level pressure (SLP), which is, over the Atlantic sector, strongly linked to the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO).<br>We analyze the influence of the polar vortex on the seasonal predictability of SLP in a seasonal prediction system based on the mixed resolution configuration of the coupled Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), where we investigate a 30 member ensemble hindcast simulation covering 1982 -2016. Since the state of the polar vortex is predictable only a few weeks or even days ahead, the seasonal prediction system cannot exactly predict the day of occurrence of stratospheric events. However, making use of the large number of stratospheric polar vortex events in the ensemble hindcast simulation, we present a statistical analysis of the influence of a correct or incorrect prediction of the stratospheric vortex state on the seasonal predictability of SLP over the North Atlantic and Europe.</p>

Sensitivity of the Tropospheric Circulation to Changes in the Strength of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex

2006 ◽  
Vol 134 (8) ◽  
pp. 2191-2207 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Jung ◽  
Jan Barkmeijer
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
The North ◽  
European Area ◽  
Extended Range ◽  
Tropospheric Circulation ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
Ecmwf Model ◽  
Strong Vortex

Abstract The sensitivity of the wintertime tropospheric circulation to changes in the strength of the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex is studied using one of the latest versions of the ECMWF model. Three sets of experiments were carried out: one control integration and two integrations in which the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex has been gradually reduced and increased, respectively, during the course of the integration. The strength of the polar vortex is changed by applying a forcing to the model tendencies in the stratosphere only. The forcing has been obtained using the adjoint technique. It is shown that, in the ECMWF model, changes in the strength of the polar vortex in the middle and lower stratosphere have a significant and slightly delayed (on the order of days) impact on the tropospheric circulation. The tropospheric response shows some resemblance to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), though the centers of action are slightly shifted toward the east compared to those of the NAO. Furthermore, a separate comparison of the response to a weak and strong vortex forcing suggests that to first order the tropospheric response is linear within a range of realistic stratospheric perturbations. From the results presented, it is argued that extended-range forecasts in the European area particularly benefit from the stratosphere–troposphere link.

scholarly journals Future Arctic ozone recovery: the importance of chemistry and dynamics

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. M. Bednarz ◽  
A. C. Maycock ◽  
N. L. Abraham ◽  
P. Braesicke ◽  
O. Dessens ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Lower Atmosphere ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Relative Role ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
The Future ◽  
Stratospheric Cooling ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
Total Column

Abstract. Future trends in Arctic springtime total column ozone, and its chemical and dynamical drivers, are assessed using a 7 member ensemble from the Met Office Unified Model with United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols (UM-UKCA) simulating the period 1960-2100. The Arctic mean March total column ozone increases throughout the 21st century at a rate of ~11.5 DU decade-1, and is projected to return to the 1980 level in the late 2030s. However, the integrations show that even past 2060 springtime Arctic ozone can episodically drop by ~50-100 DU below the long-term mean to near present day values. Consistent with the global decline in inorganic chlorine (Cly) over the century, the estimated mean halogen induced chemical ozone loss in the Arctic lower atmosphere in spring decreases by around a factor of two between 1981-2000 and 2061-2080. However, in the presence of a cold and strong polar vortex elevated halogen losses well above the long-term mean continue to occur in the simulations into the second part of the century. The ensemble shows a radiatively-driven cooling trend modelled in the Arctic winter mid- and upper stratosphere, but there is less consistency across the seven ensemble members in the lower stratosphere (100-50 hPa). This is partly due to an increase in downwelling over the Arctic polar cap in winter, which increases transport of ozone into the polar region as well as drives adiabatic warming that partly offsets the radiatively-driven stratospheric cooling. However, individual years characterised by significantly suppressed downwelling, reduced transport and low temperatures continue into the future. We conclude that despite the future long-term recovery of Arctic ozone, the large interannual dynamical variability is expected to continue thereby facilitating episodic reductions in springtime ozone columns. Whilst our results suggest that the relative role of dynamical processes for determining Arctic springtime ozone will increase in the future, halogen chemistry will remain a smaller but non-negligible contributor for many decades.

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