scholarly journals Land use uncertainty in transportation forecast

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 805-820
Author(s):  
Hana Sevcikova ◽  
Brice Nichols
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Puget Sound ◽  
Light Rail ◽  
Vehicle Miles Traveled ◽  
Initial Development ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Development Capacity ◽  
Comparing Distributions ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Point Level

Using an integrated land use and travel model system implemented for the Puget Sound region in Washington state, a Bayesian Melding technique is applied to represent variations in land use outcomes, and is propagated into travel choices across a multi-year agent-based simulation. A scenario is considered where zoned capacity is increased around light rail stations. Samples are drawn from the posterior distribution of households to generate travel model inputs. They allow for propagation of land use uncertainty into travel choices, which are themselves assessed for uncertainty by comparing against observed data. Resulting travel measures of zonal vehicle miles traveled (VMT) per capita and light rail station boardings indicate the importance of comparing distributions rather than point forecasts. Results suggest decreased VMT per capita in zones near light rail stations and increased boardings at certain stations with existing development, and less significant impacts around stations with lower initial development capacity. In many cases, individual point level comparisons of scenarios would lead to very different conclusions. Altogether, this finding adds to a line of work demonstrating the policy value of incorporating uncertainty in integrated models and provides a method for assessing these variations in a systematic way.

scholarly journals Toward a Dualistic Growth? Population Increase and Land-Use Change in Rome, Italy

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 749
Author(s):  
Leonardo Bianchini ◽  
Gianluca Egidi ◽  
Ahmed Alhuseen ◽  
Adele Sateriano ◽  
Sirio Cividino ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Mediterranean Basin ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Central Italy ◽  
Agricultural Landscapes ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Per Capita

The spatial mismatch between population growth and settlement expansion is at the base of current models of urban growth. Empirical evidence is increasingly required to inform planning measures promoting urban containment in the context of a stable (or declining) population. In these regards, per-capita indicators of land-use change can be adopted with the aim at evaluating long-term sustainability of urbanization processes. The present study assesses spatial variations in per-capita indicators of land-use change in Rome, Central Italy, at five years (1949, 1974, 1999, 2008, and 2016) with the final objective of quantifying the mismatch between urban expansion and population growth. Originally specialized in agricultural productions, Rome’s metropolitan area is a paradigmatic example of dispersed urban expansion in the Mediterranean basin. By considering multiple land-use dynamics, per-capita indicators of landscape change delineated three distinctive waves of growth corresponding with urbanization, suburbanization, and a more mixed stage with counter-urbanization and re-urbanization impulses. By reflecting different socioeconomic contexts on a local scale, urban fabric and forests were identified as the ‘winner’ classes, expanding homogeneously over time at the expense of cropland. Agricultural landscapes experienced a more heterogeneous trend with arable land and pastures declining systematically and more fragmented land classes (e.g., vineyards and olive groves) displaying stable (or slightly increasing) trends. The continuous reduction of per-capita surface area of cropland that’s supports a reduced production base, which is now insufficient to satisfy the rising demand for fresh food at the metropolitan scale, indicates the unsustainability of the current development in Rome and more generally in the whole Mediterranean basin, a region specialized traditionally in (proximity) agricultural productions.

scholarly journals Theoretical foundations of human decision-making in agent-based land use models – A review

2017 ◽  
Vol 87 ◽  
pp. 39-48 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Groeneveld ◽  
B. Müller ◽  
C.M. Buchmann ◽  
G. Dressler ◽  
C. Guo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Human Decision ◽  
Land Use Models ◽  
Theoretical Foundations

Urbanization and Carbon Emissions in India and China

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 113-126 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kala Seetharam Sridhar
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Urban Form ◽  
Urban Policy ◽  
Geographical Area ◽  
Urban Land Use ◽  
Land Use Regulations ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Positive Effect ◽  
India And China

This article understands, from an empirical perspective, the determinants of carbon emissions, using internationally comparable data, and cross-national regressions for India and China. Next, it explores the relationship between urban land use regulations and carbon emissions in India’s cities. Urbanization has no impact on carbon emissions per capita or per unit of geographical area. Electricity consumption in China and electricity produced from coal in India have a positive effect on carbon emissions. GDP per capita has a positive effect in India and not so in China, but per capita GDP squared has a negative impact on emissions in both the countries. Does this imply that urbanization should be ignored in the two countries? The answer is no, because a city’s urban form, to which policy contributes, is correlated with carbon emissions. More suburbanized cities which sprawl more also emit more carbon. India’s land use regulations relating to building height restrictions are conservative, hence Indian cities sprawl, which lead to carbon emissions. Hence, the focus of urban policy has to be on the development of compact cities. The article concludes with caveats of the data.

scholarly journals Comparison of empirical methods for building agent-based models in land use science

2007 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Derek T. Robinson ◽  
Daniel G. Brown ◽  
Dawn C. Parker ◽  
Pepijn Schreinemachers ◽  
Marco A. Janssen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Empirical Methods ◽  
Agent Based Models ◽  
Agent Based

An open framework for agent based modelling of agricultural land use change

2014 ◽  
Vol 61 ◽  
pp. 19-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dave Murray-Rust ◽  
Derek T. Robinson ◽  
Eleonore Guillem ◽  
Eleni Karali ◽  
Mark Rounsevell
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Agricultural Land Use ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Open Framework ◽  
Agent Based Modelling

scholarly journals Traffic noise feedback in agent-based Integrated Land-Use/Transport Models

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nico Kuehnel ◽  
Dominik Ziemke ◽  
Rolf Moeckel
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Noise Exposure ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
Air Pollutant ◽  
Pollutant Emissions ◽  
Common Source ◽  
Environmental Implications ◽  
Transport Models ◽  
Agent Based

Road traffic is a common source of negative environmental externalities such as noise and air pollution. While existing transport models are capable of accurately representing environmental stressors of road traffic, this is less true for integrated land-use/transport models. So-called land-use-transport-environment models aim to integrate environmental impacts. However, the environmental implications are often analyzed as an output of the model only, even though research suggests that the environment itself can have an impact on land use. The few existing models that actually introduce a feedback between land-use and environment fall back on aggregated zonal values. This paper presents a proof of concept for an integrated, microscopic and agent-based approach for a feedback loop between transport-related noise emissions and land-use. The results show that the microscopic link between the submodels is operational and fine-grained analysis by different types of agents is possible. It is shown that high-income households react differently to noise exposure when compared low-income households. The presented approach opens new possibilities for analyzing and understanding noise abatement policies as well as issues of environmental equity. The methodology can be transferred to include air pollutant emissions in the future.

scholarly journals How model paradigms affect our representation of future land-use change

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Calum Brown ◽  
Ian Holman ◽  
Mark Rounsevell
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
System Development ◽  
Active Management ◽  
Integrated Modelling ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
Land Use Models ◽  
Landscape Scales

Abstract. Land use models operating at regional to global scales are almost exclusively based on the single paradigm of economic optimisation. Models based on different paradigms are known to produce very different results, but these are not always equivalent or attributable to particular assumptions. In this study, we compare two pan-European land use models that are based on the same integrated modelling framework and utilise the same climatic and socio-economic scenarios, but which adopt fundamentally different model paradigms. One of these is a constrained optimising economic-equilibrium model and the other is a stochastic agent-based model. We run both models for a range of scenario combinations and compare their projections of spatial and aggregate land use change and ecosystem service supply. We find that the agent-based model projects more multifunctional and heterogeneous landscapes in most scenarios, providing a wider range of ecosystem services at landscape scales, as agents make individual, time-dependent decisions that reflect economic and non-economic motivations. This tendency also results in food shortages under certain scenario conditions. The optimisation model, in contrast, maintains food supply through intensification of agricultural production in the most profitable areas, sometimes at the expense of active management in large, contiguous parts of Europe. We relate the principal differences observed to underlying model assumptions, and hypothesise that optimisation may be appropriate in scenarios that allow for coherent political and economic control of land systems, but not in scenarios where economic and other scenario conditions prevent the normal functioning of price signals and responses. In these circumstances, agent-based modelling allows explicit consideration of behavioural processes, but in doing so provides a highly flexible account of land system development that is harder to link to underlying assumptions. We suggest that structured comparisons of parallel, transparent but paradigmatically distinct models are an important method for better understanding the potential scope and uncertainties of future land use change.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document