scholarly journals Exchange Rate and Demand for Money in Nigeria

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 21
Author(s):  
BigBen Chukwuma Ogbonna
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Money Demand ◽  
Black Market ◽  
Easy Access ◽  
Market Exchange ◽  
Demand Model ◽  
Demand For Money ◽  
Official Exchange Rate

<p>This study is designed to examine empirically the impact of exchange rate on the stability of demand for money in Nigeria where official and black market exchange rates operate side by side due to exchange controls. Variants of money demand model are estimated using monthly data for the period of 2005-2013. Cointegration and system equation techniques combined with CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests are employed in the data analysis. Results indicate that in all the variants of the money demand model, coefficients of exchange rates variable (official or black market exchange rates) manifest significant <em>t</em> statistics, meaning that the null hypothesis of restricting the coefficients of exchange rates in money demand model in Nigeria is rejected for each variant. This suggests that coefficient of exchange rates variable (OMEXR or BMEXR) belongs to the cointegrating space in all the instances. Judging from the freakiness of the coefficients of the variants of the money demand function and the results of the tests for stability of the models combined, the most appropriate  demand for money function for Nigeria appear to be the one that includes M1, the interest rate, inflation rate, and official exchange rate. This implies that in Nigeria, a greater percentage of the foreign exchange demand may be public sector driven and substantial percentage of the private sector foreign exchange needs is sourced from the official exchange rate market due to the substantial disparity between the two rates. This may mean consumers’ easy access to official exchange rate and transparency in the operation of official exchange rate market in Nigeria.</p>

scholarly journals Productivity Bias Hypothesis: New Evidence from Parallel Market Exchange Rate

ECONOMICS ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-40
Author(s):  
James Temitope Dada ◽  
Philip Akanni Olomola ◽  
Folorunsho Monsur Ajide
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Purchasing Power Parity ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Black Market ◽  
Market Exchange ◽  
Power Parity ◽  
Productivity Data ◽  
Official Exchange Rate ◽  
Market Exchange Rate

AbstractAim/Purpose: The purpose of this study is to investigate Productivity Bias Hypothesis (PBH) in Nigeria using parallel (black) market exchange rate.Design/Methodology/Approach: The study focused on Naira-Dollar (N/$) parallel market exchange rate. Quarterly data from 1995 to 2018 were used. Data on domestic productivity and parallel market exchange rate were sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin, 2018 edition. US productivity data was sourced from Federal Reserve Economic Data. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) was used as the estimation technique.Findings: The result reveals that parallel (black) market exchange rate support the presence of productivity bias hypothesis in Nigeria. Furthermore, the purchasing power parity hypothesis was rejected using the conventional unit root test. This implies that using official exchange rate, the study rejects the productivity bias hypothesis.Research Implications/Limitations: The implication of the study is that exchange rate in Nigeria should be determined freely in the foreign exchange market.Originality/Value/Contribution: Previous studies have used official exchange rate to test the validity of the productivity bias hypothesis, and the results can be basically described as mixed. Hence, this study differs from extant studies as it examined productivity bias hypothesis using parallel market exchange rate.

The Iranian Foreign Exchange Policy And The Black Market for Dollars

1992 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-125 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Hashem Pesaran
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Black Market ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Official Exchange Rate ◽  
The Face ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
The Government ◽  
Oil Revenues

As a result of the oil price shocks, the 1979 revolution, and the eight-year war with Iraq, fundamental changes have taken place in Iran's foreign exchange position as well as in its exchange rate policy. The viable data over the period 1979–1980 to 1988–1989 clearly show that, despite the revolutionary rhetoric, very little has been done to reduce the country's dependence on oil exports as a source of foreign exchange and government revenues. Instead, in the face of falling oil revenues and the country's increasing international isolation, coupled with the regime's unwillingness to incur foreign debt, the government has adopted a severe ‘import compression’ policy through selective tariffs and quotas, strict control of private and government imports by means of import licenses, and the imposition of foreign exchange allocations on government agencies. The result has been an ever-rising premium on the U.S. dollar in the ‘black’ market, a highly overvalued official exchange rate, a substantial increase in rent-seeking activities at the expense of production, a severe misallocation of resources, and loss of output and industrial capacity.

scholarly journals Causality in Vietnam’s Parallel Exchange Rate System during 2005–2011: Policy Implications for Macroeconomic Stability

Economies ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 68 ◽  
Author(s):  
Minh Bui
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Black Market ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Market Exchange ◽  
Rate System ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Exchange Rate System ◽  
Macroeconomic Stability

As in many transition economies, Vietnam has experienced a multiple exchange rate system with three exchange rates having co-existed. This paper uses the Vector-Error-Correction model and the Granger tests to investigate the relationship between the official and black market exchange rates from January 2005 to April 2011. The results confirm a long-run relationship between the official and parallel market rates of the Vietnam dong against the U.S. dollar. The short-run dynamics of two exchange rates suggest that the official exchange rate causes the black exchange rate, but not vice versa. This conclusion is valid for both a sub-period of stability and a sub-period of vibrant fluctuations, with February 2008 as the cut-off. The findings also reject the efficiency hypothesis of the black market for foreign exchange and support the policy choice of the State Bank of Vietnam not to follow black market signals in managing official exchange rates for macroeconomic stability.

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