scholarly journals Productivity Bias Hypothesis: New Evidence from Parallel Market Exchange Rate

ECONOMICS ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-40
Author(s):  
James Temitope Dada ◽  
Philip Akanni Olomola ◽  
Folorunsho Monsur Ajide
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Purchasing Power Parity ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Black Market ◽  
Market Exchange ◽  
Power Parity ◽  
Productivity Data ◽  
Official Exchange Rate ◽  
Market Exchange Rate

AbstractAim/Purpose: The purpose of this study is to investigate Productivity Bias Hypothesis (PBH) in Nigeria using parallel (black) market exchange rate.Design/Methodology/Approach: The study focused on Naira-Dollar (N/$) parallel market exchange rate. Quarterly data from 1995 to 2018 were used. Data on domestic productivity and parallel market exchange rate were sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin, 2018 edition. US productivity data was sourced from Federal Reserve Economic Data. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) was used as the estimation technique.Findings: The result reveals that parallel (black) market exchange rate support the presence of productivity bias hypothesis in Nigeria. Furthermore, the purchasing power parity hypothesis was rejected using the conventional unit root test. This implies that using official exchange rate, the study rejects the productivity bias hypothesis.Research Implications/Limitations: The implication of the study is that exchange rate in Nigeria should be determined freely in the foreign exchange market.Originality/Value/Contribution: Previous studies have used official exchange rate to test the validity of the productivity bias hypothesis, and the results can be basically described as mixed. Hence, this study differs from extant studies as it examined productivity bias hypothesis using parallel market exchange rate.

scholarly journals The Determinants of the Expansion of the Exchange Rate on The Black Market in The Maghreb

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 32-39
Author(s):  
Said Bouazizi
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Black Market ◽  
Market Exchange ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Currency Exchange ◽  
Official Exchange Rate ◽  
Market Exchange Rate ◽  
The Exchange Rate

The shadow economy has recently grown significantly in the overall national economy. In the Maghreb countries (Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Mauritania), the informal economy is the result of the introduction of a managed economy, which gradually forms the prerequisites for the emergence of a monetary deficit in these countries. Since the early 1990s, after the institutional changes in the market economy, a black currency exchange has taken a significant turn, which was accompanied by a large gap between the black market and official currency exchange. The relevance of this study is to determine the leverage of the exchange rate on the black market, which will determine the causes and factors of the expansion of this market. The purpose of the paper is to analyze the key determinants of determining the nature and dynamics of the black market exchange rate, as exemplified by the Maghreb countries in the context of long-term relations. The methodological support of the study includes the grouped mean group method and the Granger causality test. The author substantiates the following determinants of the shadow market exchange rate: the official exchange rate, the official real exchange rate, the differential expected rate of return, money supply, the level of reserves and prices. The study empirically confirms that the official exchange rate is the most significant variable that most influences the exchange rate in the shadow market, the official real exchange rate plays a secondary role in determining the black market exchange rate. These results are confirmed in the Granger causality test, which revealed the existence of unidirectional causality between the dependent black market exchange rate and the independent variables – the official rate, the official real currency rate, and the differential expected rate of return. Based on the conducted research, the author has identified the following recommendations for public authorities: 1) managing the shadow currency exchange market is possible in the context of adopting a complex of measures to diversify the sources of currency and implementing a monetary policy on the interest rate based on external rates; 2) the formation of a price control mechanism that will help reduce dependence on the international market. The paper focuses on the further use of the currency hedging instrument in the financial practice of the Maghreb banking system. The author emphasizes the need for the Central Bank to establish appropriate instructions for commercial banks on the organization and functioning of the interbank foreign exchange market in foreign trade operations. Keywords: currency exchange; the black market; Granger causality; heterogeneity; money supply; official course.

Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies for International Financial Stability: A Proposal

1988 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 83-103 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ronald I McKinnon
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Purchasing Power Parity ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
The United States ◽  
Power Parity ◽  
Monetary Reform ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuations

What keeps the three major industrial blocs -- Western Europe, North America, and industrialized Asia -- from developing a common monetary standard to prevent exchange-rate fluctuations? One important reason is the differing theoretical perspectives of economic advisers. The first issue is whether or not a floating foreign exchange market -- where governments do not systematically target exchange rates -- is “efficient.” Many economists believe that exchange risk can be effectively hedged in forward markets so international monetary reform is unnecessary. Second, after a decade and a half of unremitting turbulence in the foreign exchange markets, economists cannot agree on “equilibrium” or desirable official targets for exchange rates if they were to be stabilized. The contending principles of purchasing power parity and of balanced trade yield very different estimates for the “correct” yen/dollar and mark/dollar exchange rates. Third, if the three major blocs can agree to fix nominal exchange rates within narrow bands, by what working rule should the new monetary standard be anchored to prevent worldwide inflation or deflation? After considering the magnitude of exchange-rate fluctuations since floating began in the early 1970s, I analyze these conceptual issues in the course of demonstrating how the central banks of Japan, the United States, and Germany (representing the continental European bloc) can establish fixed exchange rates and international monetary stability.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Behaviour after Recent Float: The Experience of Pakistan

2004 ◽  
Vol 43 (4II) ◽  
pp. 829-852
Author(s):  
M. Ali Kemal ◽  
Rana Murad Haider
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Purchasing Power Parity ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Open Market ◽  
Market Exchange ◽  
Power Parity ◽  
Traded Goods ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate

Exchange rate is a price of traded goods in the world market. To maintain the commodities competitive in the market, exchange rate should be adjusted according to the change in prices. If it is adjusted accordingly, then we say that purchasing power parity (PPP) holds in that country. However, phenomenon of PPP is completely kicked out under floating exchange rate regime in the short run [see for example, Rogoff (1999); Mark and Choi (1997); MacDonald (1999); Obstfeld and Taylor (1997); Coleman (1995); O’Connel (1998) and Michael, et al. (1997)]. Recent statement by the President of the National Bank of Pakistan, that the exchange rate and the interest rate are two faces of the same coin [Bokhari (2004)], shows that the changes in the exchange rate is strongly associated with the changes in the interest rate differential.1 It is also argued that under free float the value of currency is determined by demand and supply of foreign exchange and to control the value of currency using open market operations interest rate is used as the key monetary policy tool. Moreover, deterioration of trade balance leads to deprecation in exchange to make the exports competitive in the market and vice versa.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate and Demand for Money in Nigeria

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 21
Author(s):  
BigBen Chukwuma Ogbonna
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Money Demand ◽  
Black Market ◽  
Easy Access ◽  
Market Exchange ◽  
Demand Model ◽  
Demand For Money ◽  
Official Exchange Rate

<p>This study is designed to examine empirically the impact of exchange rate on the stability of demand for money in Nigeria where official and black market exchange rates operate side by side due to exchange controls. Variants of money demand model are estimated using monthly data for the period of 2005-2013. Cointegration and system equation techniques combined with CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests are employed in the data analysis. Results indicate that in all the variants of the money demand model, coefficients of exchange rates variable (official or black market exchange rates) manifest significant <em>t</em> statistics, meaning that the null hypothesis of restricting the coefficients of exchange rates in money demand model in Nigeria is rejected for each variant. This suggests that coefficient of exchange rates variable (OMEXR or BMEXR) belongs to the cointegrating space in all the instances. Judging from the freakiness of the coefficients of the variants of the money demand function and the results of the tests for stability of the models combined, the most appropriate  demand for money function for Nigeria appear to be the one that includes M1, the interest rate, inflation rate, and official exchange rate. This implies that in Nigeria, a greater percentage of the foreign exchange demand may be public sector driven and substantial percentage of the private sector foreign exchange needs is sourced from the official exchange rate market due to the substantial disparity between the two rates. This may mean consumers’ easy access to official exchange rate and transparency in the operation of official exchange rate market in Nigeria.</p>

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