scholarly journals The Study on the Strong Wind Damage Prediction for Estimation Surface Wind Speed of Typhoon Season(I)

2008 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 195-201 ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 255-281 ◽  
Author(s):  
Larry W. O’Neill ◽  
Dudley B. Chelton ◽  
Steven K. Esbensen

Abstract The effects of surface wind speed and direction gradients on midlatitude surface vorticity and divergence fields associated with mesoscale sea surface temperature (SST) variability having spatial scales of 100–1000 km are investigated using vector wind observations from the SeaWinds scatterometer on the Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) satellite and SST from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) Aqua satellite. The wind–SST coupling is analyzed over the period June 2002–August 2008, corresponding to the first 6+ years of the AMSR-E mission. Previous studies have shown that strong wind speed gradients develop in response to persistent mesoscale SST features associated with the Kuroshio Extension, Gulf Stream, South Atlantic, and Agulhas Return Current regions. Midlatitude SST fronts also significantly modify surface wind direction; the surface wind speed and direction responses to typical SST differences of about 2°–4°C are, on average, about 1–2 m s−1 and 4°–8°, respectively, over all four regions. Wind speed perturbations are positively correlated and very nearly collocated spatially with the SST perturbations. Wind direction perturbations, however, are displaced meridionally from the SST perturbations, with cyclonic flow poleward of warm SST and anticyclonic flow poleward of cool SST. Previous observational analyses have shown that small-scale perturbations in the surface vorticity and divergence fields are related linearly to the crosswind and downwind components of the SST gradient, respectively. When the vorticity and divergence fields are analyzed in curvilinear natural coordinates, the wind speed contributions to the SST-induced vorticity and divergence depend equally on the crosswind and downwind SST gradients, respectively. SST-induced wind direction gradients also significantly modify the vorticity and divergence fields, weakening the vorticity response to crosswind SST gradients while enhancing the divergence response to downwind SST gradients.


2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (9) ◽  
pp. 2891-2903 ◽  
Author(s):  
Changgui Lin ◽  
Kun Yang ◽  
Jun Qin ◽  
Rong Fu

Abstract Previous studies indicated that surface wind speed over China declined during past decades, and several explanations exist in the literature. This study presents long-term (1960–2009) changes of both surface and upper-air wind speeds over China and addresses observed evidence to interpret these changes. It is found that surface wind over China underwent a three-phase change over the past 50 yr: (i) it step changed to a strong wind level at the end of the 1960s, (ii) it declined until the beginning of the 2000s, and (iii) it seemed to be steady and even recovering during the very recent years. The variability of surface wind speed is greater at higher elevations and less at lower elevations. In particular, surface wind speed over the elevated Tibetan Plateau has changed more significantly. Changes in upper-air wind speed observed from rawinsonde are similar to surface wind changes. The NCEP–NCAR reanalysis indicates that wind speed changes correspond to changes in geopotential height gradient at 500 hPa. The latter are further correlated with the changes of latitudinal surface temperature gradient, with a correlation coefficient of 0.88 for the past 50 yr over China. This strongly suggests that the spatial gradient of surface global warming or cooling may significantly change surface wind speed at a regional scale through atmospheric thermal adaption. The recovery of wind speed since the beginning of the 2000s over the Tibetan Plateau might be a precursor of the reversal of wind speed trends over China, as wind over high elevations can respond more rapidly to the warming gradient and atmospheric circulation adjustment.


2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (10) ◽  
pp. 3989-4008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhengtai Zhang ◽  
Kaicun Wang

AbstractSurface wind speed (SWS) from meteorological observation, global atmospheric reanalysis, and geostrophic wind speed (GWS) calculated from surface pressure were used to study the stilling and recovery of SWS over China from 1960 to 2017. China experienced anemometer changes and automatic observation transitions in approximately 1969 and 2004, resulting in SWS inhomogeneity. Therefore, we divided the entire period into three sections to study the SWS trend, and found a near-zero annual trend in the SWS in China from 1960 to 1969, a significant decrease of −0.24 m s−1 decade−1 from 1970 to 2004, and a weak recovery from 2005 to 2017. By defining the 95th and 5th percentiles of daily mean wind speeds as strong and weak winds, respectively, we found that the SWS decrease was primarily caused by a strong wind decrease of −8% decade−1 from 1960 to 2017, but weak wind showed an insignificant decreasing trend of −2% decade−1. GWS decreased with a significant trend of −3% decade−1 before the 1990s; during the 1990s, GWS increased with a trend of 3% decade−1 whereas SWS continued to decrease with a trend of 10% decade−1. Consistent with SWS, GWS demonstrated a weak increase after the 2000s. After detrending, both SWS and GWS showed synchronous decadal variability, which is related to the intensity of Aleutian low pressure over the North Pacific. However, current reanalyses cannot reproduce the decadal variability and cannot capture the decreasing trend of SWS either.


2011 ◽  
Vol 41 (1) ◽  
pp. 247-251 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hans Hersbach

Abstract Near the surface, it is commonly believed that the behavior of the (turbulent) atmospheric flow can be well described by a constant stress layer. In the case of a neutrally stratified surface layer, this leads to the well-known logarithmic wind profile that determines the relation between near-surface wind speed and magnitude of stress. The profile is set by a surface roughness length, which, over the ocean surface, is not constant; rather, it depends on the underlying (ocean wave) sea state. For instance, at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts this relation is parameterized in terms of surface stress itself, where the scale is set by kinematic viscosity for light wind and a Charnock parameter for strong wind. For given wind speed at a given height, the determination of the relation between surface wind and stress (expressed by a drag coefficient) leads to an implicit equation that is to be solved in an iterative way. In this paper a fit is presented that directly expresses the neutral drag coefficient and surface roughness in terms of wind speed without the need for iteration. Since the fit is formulated in purely dimensionless quantities, it is able to produce accurate results over the entire range in wind speed, level height, and values for the Charnock parameter for which the implicit set of equations is believed to be valid.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhengtai Zhang ◽  
Kaicun Wang

<p>Surface wind speed (SWS) from meteorological observation, global atmospheric reanalysis, and geostrophic wind speed (GWS) calculated from surface pressure were used to study the stilling and recovery of SWS over China from 1960 to 2017. China experienced anemometer changes and automatic observation transitions in approximately 1969 and 2004, resulting in SWS inhomogeneity. Therefore, we divided the entire period into three sections to study the SWS trend, and found a near zero annual trend in the SWS in China from 1960 to 1969, a significant decrease of -0.24 m/s decade<sup>-1 </sup>from 1970 to 2004, and a weak recovery from 2005 to 2017. By defining the 95<sup>th</sup> and 5<sup>th</sup> percentiles of monthly mean wind speeds as strong and weak winds, respectively, we found that the SWS decrease was primarily caused by a strong wind decrease of -8 % decade<sup>-1</sup> from 1960 to 2017, but weak wind showed an insignificant decreasing trend of -2 % decade<sup>-1</sup>. GWS decreased with a significant trend of -3 % decade<sup>-1 </sup>before the 1990s, during the 1990s, GWS increased with a trend of 3 % decade<sup>-1 </sup>whereas SWS continued to decrease with a trend of 10 % decade<sup>-1</sup>. Consistent with SWS, GWS demonstrated a weak increase after the 2000s. After detrended, both of SWS and GWS showed synchronous decadal variability, which is related to the intensity of Aleutian low pressure over the North Pacific. However, current reanalyses cannot reproduce the decadal variability, and can not capture the decreasing trend of SWS either.</p>


2020 ◽  
Vol 148 (8) ◽  
pp. 3413-3426
Author(s):  
Llorenç Lledó ◽  
Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes

ABSTRACT The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), a prominent feature of the tropical atmospheric circulation at subseasonal time scales, is known to modulate atmospheric variability in the Euro-Atlantic region. However, current subseasonal prediction systems fail to accurately reproduce the physical processes involved in these teleconnection mechanisms. This paper explores the observed impact of strong MJO events on surface wind speed over Europe. It is found that some MJO phases are accompanied by strong wind anomalies in Europe. After showing that this teleconnective mechanism is not present in the predictions of the ECMWF monthly forecasting system, a methodology to reconstruct forecasts of daily mean wind speed in the continent weeks ahead is proposed. This method combines MJO forecasts from the S2S project database and the observed teleconnection impacts in the historical records. Although it is found that strong MJO events cannot be skillfully predicted more than 10 days ahead with current prediction systems, a theoretical experiment shows that this method can effectively transform a dynamical MJO forecast into a probabilistic wind speed prediction in Europe.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xia Li ◽  
Yongjie Pan ◽  
Yingsha Jiang

Abstract Near-surface wind speed is of great significance in many aspects of the human production and living. This study analyses the spatiotemporal characteristics of the near-surface wind speed and wind speed percentiles with meteorological station observations in China from 1979 to 2019. Furthermore, the mechanisms of the wind speed variations are also investigated with ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset. Spatially, the wind speeds in the northern and eastern regions of China are larger than that in the central and southern regions. Seasonally, the wind speed in spring is significantly larger than that in the other seasons. The dispersion degree of wind speed in spring is larger than that in the other seasons both spatially and temporally. The near-surface wind speed in China shows significantly decreasing trends during 1979–2019, particularly in 1979–1999, but the wind speed trend reversed after 2000. After dividing the wind speed into different percentiles, it recognizes that the decreasing trend of stronger winds are more significant than that of weaker winds. The weaker the wind speed, the more significant increasing trend after 2000. Therefore, the decreasing wind speed trend before 2000 is mainly caused by the significant reduction of strong wind, while the reversal trend after 2000 results from the increase of weak wind. The variations of the wind speed over China attributed to both the U and V wind components, and the variations of zonal wind is closely related to the weakened upper westerly wind field and the uneven warming between high and low latitudes.


2014 ◽  
Vol 599-601 ◽  
pp. 1605-1609 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ming Zeng ◽  
Zhan Xie Wu ◽  
Qing Hao Meng ◽  
Jing Hai Li ◽  
Shu Gen Ma

The wind is the main factor to influence the propagation of gas in the atmosphere. Therefore, the wind signal obtained by anemometer will provide us valuable clues for searching gas leakage sources. In this paper, the Recurrence Plot (RP) and Recurrence Quantification Analysis (RQA) are applied to analyze the influence of recurrence characteristics of the wind speed time series under the condition of the same place, the same time period and with the sampling frequency of 1hz, 2hz, 4.2hz, 5hz, 8.3hz, 12.5hz and 16.7hz respectively. Research results show that when the sampling frequency is higher than 5hz, the trends of recurrence nature of different groups are basically unchanged. However, when the sampling frequency is set below 5hz, the original trend of recurrence nature is destroyed, because the recurrence characteristic curves obtained using different sampling frequencies appear cross or overlapping phenomena. The above results indicate that the anemometer will not be able to fully capture the detailed information in wind field when its sampling frequency is lower than 5hz. The recurrence characteristics analysis of the wind speed signals provides an important basis for the optimal selection of anemometer.


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