scholarly journals International Real Estate Review

2014 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 359-394
Author(s):  
Paul Gallimore ◽  
◽  
J. Andrew Hansz ◽  
Wikrom Prombutr ◽  
Ying Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Portfolio Diversification ◽  
Portfolio Performance ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
Market Portfolio ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Causality Tests

We investigate long-term cointegrative and short-term causal relations among seven U.S. sectoral REITs. First, cointegration tests identify one long-term cointegrative relation among five of the sectors, which suggests that two of the sectors are outside the cointegrative space. Second, short-term Granger causality tests identify three leading and two following cointegrated sectors. Third, a proposed vector autoregressive model indicates that a stronger cointegrating effect is induced by declining real estate markets and a multivariate sensitivity regression model shows that unexpected inflation significantly and negatively influences the cointegrative disequilibrium. Lastly, our cointegration-based portfolio performance analyses show that the inferior performance of the all-sector market portfolio stems from containing the redundant cointegrated sectors which shatter portfolio diversification.

Feedback trading strategies in international real estate markets

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chrysanthi Balomenou ◽  
Vassilios Babalos ◽  
Dimitrios Vortelinos ◽  
Athanasios Koulakiotis
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Feedback Trading

Purpose Motivated by recent evidence that securitized real estate returns exhibit higher levels of predictability than stock market returns and that feedback trading (FT) can induce returns autocorrelation and market volatility, the purpose of this study is to examine the impact of FT strategies on long-term market volatility of eight international real estate markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy, Sweden, Australia, Japan and Hong Kong). Design/methodology/approach Assuming that the return autocorrelation may vary over time and the impact of positive feedback trading (PFT) or negative feedback trading (NFT) could be a function of return volatility, the authors use a combination of a FT model and a fractionally integrated Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. Findings The results are mixed, revealing that both PFT and NFT strategies persist. Specifically, the authors detect PFT in the real estate markets of France, Hong Kong and Italy as opposed to the real estate markets of Australia, Germany, Japan and Sweden where NFT was present. A noteworthy exception is the UK real estate market, with important and rational FT strategies to sustain. With respect to the long-term volatility persistence, this seems to capture the mean reversion of real estate returns in the UK and Hong Kong markets. In general, the results are not consistent with those reported in previous studies because NFT dominates PFT in the majority of real estate markets under consideration. Originality/value The main contribution of this study is the investigation of the link between short-term PFT or NFT and long-term volatility in eight international real estate markets, symmetrically. Particular attention has been given to the link between short-term FT and long-term volatility, by means of a fractionally integrated GARCH approach, a symmetric one. Moreover, investigating the relationship between returns’ volatility and investors’ strategies based on FT entails significant implications because real estate assets offer a good alternative investment for many investors and speculators.

The long-term linkages between direct and indirect property in Australia

2015 ◽  
Vol 33 (4) ◽  
pp. 374-392 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaime Yong ◽  
Anh Khoi Pham
Keyword(s):  
Moving Average ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Property Data ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Asset Portfolio ◽  
Asset Classes

Purpose– Investment in Australia’s property market, whether directly or indirectly through Australian real estate investment trusts (A-REITs), grew remarkably since the 1990s. The degree of segregation between the property market and other financial assets, such as shares and bonds, can influence the diversification benefits within multi-asset portfolios. This raises the question of whether direct and indirect property investments are substitutable. Establishing how information transmits between asset classes and impacts the predictability of returns is of interest to investors. The paper aims to discuss these issues.Design/methodology/approach– The authors study the linkages between direct and indirect Australian property sectors from 1985 to 2013, with shares and bonds. This paper employs an Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) process to de-smooth a valuation-based direct property index. The authors establish directional lead-lag relationships between markets using bi-variate Granger causality tests. Johansen cointegration tests are carried out to examine how direct and indirect property markets adjust to an equilibrium long-term relationship and short-term deviations from such a relationship with other asset classes.Findings– The authors find the use of appraisal-based property data creates a smoothing bias which masks the extent of how information is transmitted between the indirect property sector, stock and bond markets, and influences returns. The authors demonstrate that an ARFIMA process accounting for a smoothing bias up to lags of four quarters can overcome the overstatement of the smoothing bias from traditional AR models, after individually appraised constituent properties are aggregated into an overall index. The results show that direct property adjusts to information transmitted from market-traded A-REITs and stocks.Practical implications– The study shows direct property investments and A-REITs are substitutible in a multi-asset portfolio in the long and short term.Originality/value– The authors apply an ARFIMA(p,d,q) model to de-smooth Australian property returns, as proposed by Bond and Hwang (2007). The authors expect the findings will contribute to the discussion on whether direct property and REITs are substitutes in a multi-asset portfolio.

Long-Term Equilibrium and Short-Term Dynamics between Metropolitan Housing Markets in China

2014 ◽  
Vol 905 ◽  
pp. 343-347
Author(s):  
Gao Lu Zou ◽  
K.W. Chau
Keyword(s):  
House Prices ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Regional Markets ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Short Run

House prices across cities may form long-term relations. Geographic barriers could lead to lack of short-term dynamics. The paper aims to investigate the long-run equilibrium and/or short-run dynamics betweenmetropolitan house pricesin China. The study introduced two cointegration tests and various small-sample corrections. We conductedthe Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality tests. House prices betweencitiesin most regional markets did notshow long-term relations as well as short-term dynamics. Therefore, geographies andtransport costs between cities could reducethe centrifugal forces of city growth. Metropolitan housing markets are typically local.

scholarly journals Integration of the GCC Stock Markets

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 24
Author(s):  
Turki Alshammari
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Gulf Cooperation Council ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Response Functions ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Short And Long Term

This study analyzes the short- and long-term interdependence among the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock markets, namely, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Emirates, and Oman. The study finds a solid long-term relationship among the GCC stock markets and that each market contributes significantly to that relationship. The short-term relationship is also supported through the causality tests as well as through impulse response functions. The analysis reveals the Kuwait stock market to be the most influential during the examined period. Also, a feedback exists between the Saudi and the Emirates stock markets. In order to corroborate the results, an ARDL model is specified and its results confirm the cointegration tests. Overall, the results place doubts against the investment diversification principle.

Challenged from the Outside

2021 ◽  
pp. 216-234
Author(s):  
Daniel R. Garodnick
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Short Term

This chapter discusses how residents of Stuyvesant Town received a colorful missive from Gerald Guterman, a real-estate speculator, which attacked and directly undermined the Tenants Association and Brookfield, the new partner of the complex buildings. It explores Guterman's plan of converting the Stuy Town property to a co-op and selling units to tenants at $130,000 per unit. It also points out how Guterman's plan sparked an anxious debate about who would become the owner of units that were not sold to the tenants who lived in them. The chapter mentions Guterman's intention to sell occupied rent-stabilized units to individual outside investors, a scenario most longtime rent-stabilized renters objected to. It also elaborates Daniel Garodnick's concerns on Guterman's model of short-term ownership that lacked any long-term affordability protections.

Global financial crisis and cyclical co-movements of Asian financial markets

2016 ◽  
Vol 34 (5) ◽  
pp. 465-495 ◽  
Author(s):  
KimHiang Liow
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Frequency Domain ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
Asset Classes

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the cross-spectra of stock, real estate and bond of ten selected Asian economies in the pre- and post-global financial crisis periods to detect whether there is greater cyclical co-movement post-financial crisis, and whether any observed increased co-movement measures the outcomes of contagion or integration. Design/methodology/approach – Co-spectral approach is the proper econometric tool to deliver economic insight for this research. Findings – Results indicate that Asian stock markets, and to a lesser degree, bond and real estate markets are more correlated post-financial crisis. Similarly, Asian financial markets have experienced increased co-movements with the US financial markets post-financial crisis. Moreover, these observed increased co-movements measure the outcomes of contagion in some cases of within-asset and cross-asset classes, as well as for some cross-US-Asian asset factor relationships along the high-frequency components of between two and four weeks. The stock markets are the most contagious, followed by the real estate markets and bond markets. Research limitations/implications – The results provide short-term investors with additional co-movement information at higher frequencies in order to identify short-term fluctuations of different asset classes. The empirical study also underscores the role of Asian real estate in investment portfolios in a mixed real estate, stock and bond context from a frequency domain perspective. Practical implications – The practical implication of this research is that benefits to investors from international diversification may not be as great during the present time compared to previous periods because financial/asset market movements have become more correlated. However, it does not imply the complete absence of diversification benefits. This is because although cyclical correlations increase in the short run, many of the values are still between low and moderate range, indicating that some diversification benefits may still be realized. Originality/value – In advancing the body of knowledge in international financial markets, this research is probably the first study to consider a multi-asset class portfolio context that includes stock, real estate and bond across the ten Asian economies and the USA in a single study. The frequency domain analysis conducted in this paper adds to the understanding of real estate, stock and bond market co-movement, integration and contagion dynamics, as well as the Asian cross-asset factor and US-Asian asset factor relationships in global mixed-investing environment.

scholarly journals THE CHANGING NATURE OF TRANSACTIONS ACTIVITY AND LIQUIDITY IN UK COMMERCIAL PROPERTY

2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 384-396 ◽  
Author(s):  
Colin JONES ◽  
Nicola LIVINGSTONE ◽  
Neil DUNSE
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Commercial Real Estate ◽  
Active Management ◽  
Urban Change ◽  
Commercial Property ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
One Year ◽  
The Uk

This paper examines changing transactions activity and liquidity over thirty years in the UK. It reviews the multi-dimensional concept of liquidity analysis and demonstrates that it is not just a function of the time necessary to sell an asset, a typical real estate perspective. Instead liquidity is defined in terms of transactions activity. The paper then hypothesises that urban change and an increased information base has contributed to a more active management of real estate portfolios and increased liquidity. Superimposed on this long term trend it is also hypothesised that property cycles create rise and falls in liquidity. The empirical core quantifies the changing nature of liquidity and transactions activity over thirty years from 1981 based on the IPD database. It confirms the hypothesised substantial rise in liquidity but increasing variability in the level of transactions activity from one year to the next queries the cyclical liquidity hypothesis. This is supported by causality tests. Over the last two decades a short term opportunity driven real estate investment culture appears to have emerged stimulated by the increased churn of properties, partly the consequence of the pace of urban change. It has brought greater volatility to the commercial real estate market.

scholarly journals An Analysis of the Relationships Between Domestic Real Estate Markets – A Systemic Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 79-91 ◽  
Author(s):  
Justyna Brzezicka ◽  
Jacek Łaszek ◽  
Krzysztof Olszewski
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Strong Correlations ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
Main Research ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Globalizing World ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Research Goal ◽  
National Economies

Abstract This article analyzes the spread of market phenomena, market tensions and trends between real estate markets on the global scale. At the theoretical level, the main aim of the study was to determine the nature of the relationships between housing markets throughout the world. The main research goal was to identify and describe the strength of the correlations between the real estate markets of the world’s 10 largest economies (countries with the highest GDP). The analyses were conducted with the use of Pearson’s correlation tests, Granger causality tests and graphs. Our results revealed strong correlations between most of the markets; however, we did not find strong evidence for causality. In a globalizing world, national economies will become increasingly interconnected, which will indirectly influence the housing market.

scholarly journals Time-Varying Network Connectedness of G-7 Economic Policy Uncertainties: A Locally Stationary TVP-VAR Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 47-59
Author(s):  
Onur Polat
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Dynamic Networks ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Frequency Dependent ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Network Connectedness ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

This work analyzes the frequency-dependent network structure of Economic Policy Uncertainties (EPU) across G-7 countries between January 1998 and April 2021. We implement an approach that builds dynamic networks relying on a locally stationary Time-Varying Parameter-Vector Autoregressive model using Quasi-Bayesian Local Likelihood methods. We compute short-, medium-, and long-term network connectedness of G-7 EPUs over a period covering several economic/financial turmoils. Furthermore, we structure short-term network topologies for the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 pandemic periods. Findings of the study indicate amplified interdependencies between G-7 EPUs around well-known economic/geopolitical incidents, frequency-dependent connectedness networks among them, and stronger interdependencies than the medium-, and long-term linkages. Finally, we find that short-term spillovers are not persistent in the long-term for both turmoil periods.

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