scholarly journals The Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic on the Economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council States due to Low Oil Prices

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 279
Author(s):  
Khaled Abdalla Moh'd AL-Tamimi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Gcc Countries ◽  
Literature Reviews

This paper shows the effect of a drop in oil price on the economic growth of GCC states as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic using monthly data for (2019/2020 M1 – 2019/2020 M12) where oil priceis an explanatory variable and economic growth is the affected variable. Because the economies of the GCC countries are centered mostly on oil, the spread of COVID-19 pandemic has become a serious concern since they depend on the outside world in diverse ways. The confirmed number of cases in the GCC countries is eliciting fear about security in these countries. This paper focuses on analyzing theoretical and empirical literature reviews to show the effects of oil price on economic growth and explaining this effect in GCC states for this period using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique in Eviews program. This paper concluded that there are negative and significant effects of oil price on the economic growth of Kuwait and Qatar,but insignificant effects of oil price on the economic growth of Bahrain, Oman and the United Arab Emirates and a positive and significant effect of oil price on the economic growth of Saudi Arabia by using monthly data for (2019/2020 M1 – 2019/2020 M12) at a significance level  of 5%.Also, this paper reaches a recommendation of the GCC states to improve their economies through other sectors and not by relying on oil to enhance their economic growth.

scholarly journals Oil price asymmetry, energy use and economic growth transition in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 189-202
Author(s):  
Adedayo Longe ◽  
Caleb Soyemi ◽  
David Agbanuji ◽  
Oladayo Omitogun ◽  
Idowu Adekomi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Bounds Test

The study accounts for the structural break effect in the context of Nigeria. According to the findings obtained, the linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test reveals that the possibility of a long-term co-integrating relationship is inconclusive. When the study further accounts for asymmetry and the structural break period, however, the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) bounds test reveals that there is no long-term co-integrating relationship among the variables in Nigeria within the specified period. According to the results of the NARDL test, both the positive and the negative changes in the oil price and energy use have a negative significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria in the short run, whereas the Consumer Price Index (CPI) exerts a positive and significant impact on economic growth in the short run. The Error Correction Model (ECM) result shows that the independent variables can correct about 94% of the short-run deviation of economic growth from equilibrium in the long run. The study concludes that, irrespective of the changes in the Bonny Light crude oil price, its impact remains the same on the Nigerian economic growth.

scholarly journals The Asymmetric Impact of Oil Price and Electricity Consumption on Economic Growth: Evidence from Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 50-70
Author(s):  
Adedayo Emmanuel Longe ◽  
Taiwo Matthew Adekoya ◽  
Caleb Olugbenga Soyemi ◽  
David Adeiza Agbanuji ◽  
Idowu Jacob Adekomi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Capital Formation ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Asymmetric Impact ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The study examines the asymmetric impact of oil price and electricity consumption on economic growth in Nigeria between 1981 and 2018 using the Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model. Results reveal that falling and increasing oil prices as well as gross capital formation affect economic growth in Nigeria negatively and significantly in the short-run, while electricity consumption affects economic growth positively and significantly in the short-run. In the long-run, the impact on economic growth of negative changes in oil price is negative and insignificant, while positive changes in oil price have a positive but insignificant impact on economic growth. The impact on the economic growth of electricity consumption remains positive but insignificant while that of gross capital formation is positive and significant. The results suggest that both in the short and the long run positive changes in oil price have greater impact on the economic growth than negative oil price changes. Capital formation is a significant determinant of Nigerian economic growth both in the short and the long run.

scholarly journals Hot Money and Stock Market in China: Empirical Evidence from ARDL and NARDL Approaches

2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 713-733
Author(s):  
Kwang-Jing Yii ◽  
Chai-Thing Tan ◽  
Nian-Meng Tan ◽  
Xue-Wen Teng ◽  
Ting-En Khor ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Asymmetric Effect ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Nonlinear Autoregressive ◽  
Hot Money

This study discusses the relationship between hot money and stock market in China by employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) methods. The data used in this study is quarterly data over the period 2000: Q1 to 2017: Q4. The results show that oil price, economic growth and hot money possess a long-run relationship towards stock market in China, whereas, no effect is found from inflation. The oil price and economic growth are both positively related to stock market while there is a negative relationship from hot money. Furthermore, the study supports the existence of an asymmetric effect between hot money and stock market. The findings imply that policymakers should form better monitoring systems to control the inflow of hot money, thus, strengthening investors’ confidence and avoiding unwanted bubbles in China’s stock market.

Tax revenue and economic growth in developing country: an autoregressive distribution lags approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (54) ◽  
pp. 205-217
Author(s):  
Mnaku Honest Maganya
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Testing Procedure ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
The Government

AbstractTanzania, like most other developing countries, faces numerous economic challenges in striving to achieve sustainable economic growth and development through taxation. In the literature, the debate on how effective taxes are as a tool for promoting economic growth and economic development remains inconclusive, as various research have reported mixed effects of tax on economic growth. This article investigates the effect of taxation on economic growth in Tanzania using the recently developed technique of autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) bounds testing procedure for the period from 1996 to 2019. Various preliminary tests were conducted including stationary tests as well as the pair-wise Granger causality test. According to the results obtained, domestic goods and services (TGS) taxes are positively related to GDP growth and are statistically significant at 1% level. Income taxes, on the other hand, were found to be negatively related to GDP growth and to be statistically significant at 5% level. The pair-wise Granger causality results indicated that there is bidirectional Granger causality between TGS and GDP growth at 1 % significance level. The government should aim at growing, nurturing and sustaining tax base to positively drive economic growth even further.

scholarly journals Does the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Hold for Services Exports in Emerging Economies?

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (27) ◽  
pp. 63-75
Author(s):  
Okpeku Lilian ONOSE ◽  
◽  
Osman Nuri ARAS ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Emerging Countries ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Positive Effect ◽  
Growth Hypothesis

The export-led growth hypothesis states a positive relationship between the growth of exports and long-run economic growth. This study examines the validity of the export-led growth hypothesis of services exports in 5 emerging economies, including Brazil, India, Nigeria, China, and South Africa (BINCS), for the period of 1980-2019. The study employs the panel mean group autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) procedure to identify a causal relationship between services exports and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. The findings show that the export-led growth hypothesis in services only has a positive effect on economic growth in the short run while other variables, including foreign direct investment (FDI), gross capital formation, and labour, increase economic growth in the long run. Hence, the emerging countries should focus more on internal investment to boost growth in the long and short run.

scholarly journals INSTITUTIONAL QUALITY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN JORDAN: NEW EVIDENCE USING AN AUTOREGRESSIVE DISTRIBUTED LAG (ARDL) MODEL

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 204-219
Author(s):  
ZULKEFLY ABDUL KARIM ◽  
◽  
MOHAMMAD QASIM ALABED QUSAI ◽  
FATHIN FAIZAH SAID ◽  
MOHD AZLAN SHAH ZAIDI
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Institutional Quality ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
New Evidence

Investigating the Roles of Physical Infrastructure, Financial Development and Human Capital on Economic Growth in Bangladesh

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 154-175
Author(s):  
Faroque Ahmed ◽  
Md. Jamal Hossain ◽  
Mohammad Tareque
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Physical Infrastructure ◽  
Long Term Impact

This article investigates the dynamic relationship among physical infrastructure, financial development, human capital and economic growth in Bangladesh, employing Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound co-integration and Granger causality test for the period 1985–2019. The study finds a significantly positive long-term impact of physical infrastructure and human capital on economic growth. However, the effect of financial development on growth is found to be negative, and the result suggests that financial development will take place with economic growth. From the policy perspective, this study emphasises increasing investment in physical infrastructure and human capital for Bangladesh to foster long-term economic growth.

scholarly journals Coronavirus Effects on the Economy of Jordan

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 129
Author(s):  
Khaled Abdalla Moh'd AL-Tamimi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Health Service ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Quarterly Data ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Positive Effect

This paper reports the effects of coronavirus on Jordan's economic growth by using quarterly data for the period (2018/2019 Q1 – 2019/2020 Q4), where the numbers of people who are sick with coronavirus and those that have died from the virus are explanatory variables, and economic growth is an affected variable. The research concentrates on analyzing reviews of theoretical and empirical literature to show the effect of coronavirus on economic growth and explaining this effect in Jordan in this period by using the ARDL technique in Eviews. By using quarterly data for (2018/2019 Q1 – 2019/2020 Q4) at a significance level of 5%, this research demonstrates that the numbers of people who are ill with coronavirus and those that have died from the virus have a weak positive effect and a negative but significant effect on the economic growth of Jordan, respectively. The research also shows a recommendation of limiting the negative effects of coronavirus by reducing the number of deaths via strengthening the health service and opening some economic sectors to boost economic growth in the country.

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