scholarly journals Real-time mesoscale modeling for short range prediction of weather over Maitri region in Antarctica

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 62 (4) ◽  
pp. 535-546
Author(s):  
S.K.ROY BHOWMIK ◽  
ANUPAM KUMAR ◽  
ANANDA K.DAS

The main objective of this paper is to implement Polar WRF model for the Maitri (Lat. 70° 45 S, Long. 11° 44 E) region at the horizontal resolution of 15 km using initial and boundary conditions of the Global Forecast System T-382 operational at the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The study evaluates the performance of the model using the conventional approach of case studies. The results of the case studies illustrated in this paper reveal that the model is capable of capturing synoptic and meso-scale weather systems. Forecast fields are consistent with the corresponding analysis fields. Synoptic charts of mean sea level pressure prepared by the Weather Service of South Africa at Pretoria are used for the model validation. The model derived meteograms of mean sea level pressure are compared against the corresponding observations. The study demonstrates the usefulness of the forecast products for short range forecasting of weather over the Maitri region. The forecast outputs are made available in the real-time mode in the national web site of IMD www.imd.gov.in. The study is expected to benefit weather forecasters at Maitri.

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamish Steptoe ◽  
Nicholas Henry Savage ◽  
Saeed Sadri ◽  
Kate Salmon ◽  
Zubair Maalick ◽  
...  

AbstractHigh resolution simulations at 4.4 km and 1.5 km resolution have been performed for 12 historical tropical cyclones impacting Bangladesh. We use the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting 5th generation Re-Analysis (ERA5) to provide a 9-member ensemble of initial and boundary conditions for the regional configuration of the Met Office Unified Model. The simulations are compared to the original ERA5 data and the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) tropical cyclone database for wind speed, gust speed and mean sea-level pressure. The 4.4 km simulations show a typical increase in peak gust speed of 41 to 118 knots relative to ERA5, and a deepening of minimum mean sea-level pressure of up to −27 hPa, relative to ERA5 and IBTrACS data. The downscaled simulations compare more favourably with IBTrACS data than the ERA5 data suggesting tropical cyclone hazards in the ERA5 deterministic output may be underestimated. The dataset is freely available from 10.5281/zenodo.3600201.


1991 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 333-340 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marie-Antoinette Mélières ◽  
Patricia Martinerie ◽  
Dominique Raynaud ◽  
Louis Lliboutry

2013 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 704-710 ◽  
Author(s):  
John T. Abatzoglou ◽  
Renaud Barbero ◽  
Nicholas J. Nauslar

Abstract Santa Ana winds (SAW) are among the most notorious fire-weather conditions in the United States and are implicated in wildfire and wind hazards in Southern California. This study employs large-scale reanalysis data to diagnose SAW through synoptic-scale dynamic and thermodynamic factors using mean sea level pressure gradient and lower-tropospheric temperature advection, respectively. A two-parameter threshold model of these factors exhibits skill in identifying surface-based characteristics of SAW featuring strong offshore winds and extreme fire weather as viewed through the Fosberg fire weather index across Remote Automated Weather Stations in southwestern California. These results suggest that a strong northeastward gradient in mean sea level pressure aligned with strong cold-air advection in the lower troposphere provide a simple, yet effective, means of diagnosing SAW from synoptic-scale reanalysis. This objective method may be useful for medium- to extended-range forecasting when mesoscale model output may not be available, as well as being readily applied retrospectively to better understand connections between SAW and wildfires in Southern California.


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