scholarly journals PRECIS-model simulated changes in climatic parameters under various scenarios in different agro-climatic zones of Punjab

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 68 (1) ◽  
pp. 139-148
Author(s):  
PRABHJYOT KAUR ◽  
NAVNEET KAUR ◽  
HARPREET SINGH
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
Climatic Zone ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Climatic Zones ◽  
Seasonal Basis ◽  
Zone Ii

 In this study,the future simulated climatic data (temperature and rainfall) for the 21st century were downscaled using the regional climate model, viz., PRECIS model (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) for different agro-climatic zones, i.e., Zone II (Ballowal Saunkhri), Zone III (Ludhiana, Amritsar, Patiala and Jalandhar) and Zone V (Bathinda) of Punjab. The corrected simulated data were then analyzed on the annual and seasonal basis to quantify the changes in maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall. The study showed that the maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall by the end of 21st century are likely to increase by 2.0 to 2.2 °C, 3.3 to 5.4 °C and 33 to 66% respectively in agro-climatic zone II; by 0.4 to 5.8 °C, 2.5 to 7.4 °C and 3 to 62% respectively in agro-climatic zone III and by 0.5 to 4.0 °C, 4.7 to 7.7 °C and 58 to 69% respectively in agro-climatic zone V at different locations of Punjab state under various scenarios of climate change. The trend analysis of these parameters revealed there is positive linear increasing trend under different scenarios in the Punjab state.

scholarly journals Projected changes in haze pollution potential in China: an ensemble of regional climate model simulations

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (16) ◽  
pp. 10109-10123 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhenyu Han ◽  
Botao Zhou ◽  
Ying Xu ◽  
Jia Wu ◽  
Ying Shi
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
River Delta ◽  
Central China ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Pollution Potential ◽  
Pollution Risk ◽  
Haze Pollution

Abstract. Based on the dynamic downscaling by the regional climate model RegCM4 from three CMIP5 global models under the historical and the RCP4.5 simulations, this article evaluated the performance of the RegCM4 downscaling simulations on the air environment carrying capacity (AEC) and weak ventilation days (WVDs) in China, which are applied to measure haze pollution potential. Their changes during the middle and the end of the 21st century were also projected. The evaluations show that the RegCM4 downscaling simulations can generally capture the observed features of the AEC and WVD distributions over the period 1986–2005. The projections indicate that the annual AEC tends to decrease and the annual WVDs tend to increase over almost the whole country except central China, concurrent with greater change by the late 21st century than by the middle of the 21st century. It suggests that annual haze pollution potential would be enlarged under the RCP4.5 scenario compared to the present. For seasonal change in the four main economic zones of China, it is projected consistently that there would be a higher probability of haze pollution risk over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region and the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region in winter and over the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region in spring and summer in the context of the warming scenario. Over Northeast China (NEC), future climate change might reduce the AEC or increase the WVDs throughout the whole year, which favours the occurrence of haze pollution and thus the haze pollution risk would be aggravated. The relative contribution of different components related to the AEC change further indicates that changes in the boundary layer depth and the wind speed play leading roles in the AEC change over the BTH and NEC regions. In addition to those two factors, the precipitation change also exerts important impacts on the AEC change over the YRD and PRD zones.

scholarly journals Extreme Rainfall Projections for Malaysia at the End of 21st Century Using the High Resolution Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model (NHRCM)

SOLA ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (0) ◽  
pp. 132-139
Author(s):  
Sheau Tieh Ngai ◽  
Hidetaka Sasaki ◽  
Akihiko Murata ◽  
Masaya Nosaka ◽  
Jing Xiang Chung ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Extreme Rainfall

scholarly journals Climate change in China in the 21st century as simulated by a high resolution regional climate model

2012 ◽  
Vol 57 (10) ◽  
pp. 1188-1195 ◽  
Author(s):  
XueJie Gao ◽  
Ying Shi ◽  
DongFeng Zhang ◽  
Filippo Giorgi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate

scholarly journals Large-scale atmospheric circulation biases and changes in global climate model simulations and their importance for regional climate scenarios: a case study for West-Central Europe

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 7415-7455 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. P. van Ulden ◽  
G. J. van Oldenborgh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
20Th Century ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Circulation Changes

Abstract. The credibility of regional climate change predictions for the 21st century depends on the ability of climate models to simulate global and regional circulations in a realistic manner. To investigate this issue, a large set of global coupled climate model experiments prepared for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has been studied. First we compared 20th century model simulations of longterm mean monthly sea level pressure patterns with ERA-40. We found a wide range in performance. Many models performed well on a global scale. For northern midlatitudes and Europe many models showed large errors, while other models simulated realistic pressure fields. Next we focused on the monthly mean climate of West-Central Europe in the 20th century. In this region the climate depends strongly on the circulation. Westerlies bring temperate weather from the Atlantic Ocean, while easterlies bring cold spells in winter and hot weather in summer. In order to be credible for this region, a climate model has to show realistic circulation statistics in the current climate, and a response of temperature and precipitation variations to circulation variations that agrees with observations. We found that even models with a realistic mean pressure pattern over Europe still showed pronounced deviations from the observed circulation distributions. In particular, the frequency distributions of the strength of westerlies appears to be difficult to simulate well. This contributes substantially to biases in simulated temperatures and precipitation, which have to be accounted for when comparing model simulations with observations. Finally we considered changes in climate simulations between the end of the 20th century and the end of the 21st century. Here we found that changes in simulated circulation statistics play an important role in climate scenarios. For temperature, the warm extremes in summer and cold extremes in winter are most sensitive to changes in circulation, because these extremes depend strongly on the simulated frequency of eastery flow. For precipitation, we found that circulation changes have a substantial influence, both on mean changes and on changes in the probability of wet extremes and of long dry spells. Because we do not know how reliable climate models are in their predictions of circulation changes, climate change predictions for Europe are as yet uncertain in many aspects.

scholarly journals Development of Statistically Downscaled Regional Climate Model based on Representative Concentration Pathways for Ipoh, Subang and KLIA Sepang in Peninsular Malaysia

2021 ◽  
Vol 945 (1) ◽  
pp. 012022
Author(s):  
Chin Kah Seng ◽  
Tan Kok Weng ◽  
Akihiko Nakayama
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
Peninsular Malaysia ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Monthly Average ◽  
Maximum Temperatures

Abstract Climate change is one of the challenging global issues that our world is facing and it is intensely debated on the international agenda. It is a fact that climate change has brought about many disastrous events on a global scale which affect our livelihoods. Climate models are commonly used by researchers to study the magnitude of the changing climate and to simulate future climate projections. Most climate models are developed based on various interactions among the Earth’s climate components such as the land surface, oceans, atmosphere and sea-ice. In this study, the second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) was statistically downscaled to develop a regional climate model (RCM) based on three representative concentration pathways (RCPs): RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The RCM will be used to simulate the average minimum and maximum temperatures and average precipitation for Ipoh, Subang and KLIA Sepang in Peninsular Malaysia for the years 2006 to 2100. The simulated data were bias corrected using the historical observation data of monthly average minimum and maximum temperatures and monthly average rainfall retrieved from the Malaysian Meteorological Department (MMD). The different trends of the simulated data for all the three locations based on the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were evaluated for future climate projection.

scholarly journals Impacts of Climate Change on the Hydro-Climate of Peninsular Malaysia

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 1798 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ir. Mohd Zaki bin Mat Amin ◽  
Ali Ercan ◽  
Kei Ishida ◽  
M. Levent Kavvas ◽  
Z.Q. Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Peninsular Malaysia ◽  
Soil Water Storage ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Coastal Regions ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

In this study, a regional climate model was used to dynamically downscale 15 future climate projections from three GCMs covering four emission scenarios (SRES B1, A1FI, A1B, A2) based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) datasets to 6-km horizontal resolution over the whole Peninsular Malaysia. Impacts of climate change in the 21st century on the precipitation, air temperature, and soil water storage were assessed covering ten watersheds and twelve coastal regions. Then, by coupling a physical hydrology model with the regional climate model, the impacts of the climate change on river flows were assessed at the outlets of ten watersheds in Peninsular Malaysia. It was found that the increase in the 30-year mean annual precipitation from 1970–2000 to 2070–2100 will vary from 17.1 to 36.3 percent among the ten watersheds, and from 22.9 to 45.4 percent among twelve coastal regions. The ensemble average of the basin-average annual mean air temperature will increase about 2.52 °C to 2.95 °C from 2010 to 2100. In comparison to the historical period, the change in the 30-year mean basin-average annual mean soil water storage over the ten watersheds will vary from 0.7 to 10.9 percent at the end of 21st century, and that over the twelve coastal regions will vary from −1.7 to 15.8 percent. Ensemble averages of the annual mean flows of the 15 projections show increasing trends for the 10 watersheds, especially in the second half of the 21st century. In comparison to the historical period, the change in the 30-year average annual mean flows will vary from −2.1 to 14.3 percent in the early 21st century, 4.4 to 23.8 percent in the middle 21st century, and 19.1 to 45.8 percent in the end of 21st century.

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