Showing What You Don’t Know: The Effect of Visualization on Managers’ Illusion of Explanatory Depth

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 (1) ◽  
pp. 12475 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Muntwiler ◽  
Martin Eppler
Keyword(s):  
2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michal Bialek ◽  
Ethan Andrew Meyers ◽  
Patricia Arriaga ◽  
Damian Harateh ◽  
Arkadiusz Urbanek

To further understand how to combat COVID-19 vaccination hesitancy, we examined the effects of pro-vaccine expert consensus messaging on lay attitudes of vaccine safety and intention to vaccinate. We surveyed N = 729 individuals from four countries. Regardless of its content, consensus messaging had an overall small positive effect. Most critically, the direction of the effect varied depending on the baseline attitudes of participants: consensus information improved the attitude of vaccine sceptics and uncertain individuals, while having no effect on vaccine supporters. We also analysed whether the persuasiveness of expert consensus would increase after puncturing an illusion of explanatory depth in individuals. This further manipulation had no direct effect, nor interacted with the type of expert consensus. We conclude that highlighting expert consensus may be a way to increase support toward COVID-19 vaccination in those already hesitant or sceptical with little risk of side-effects.


2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Noam Chomsky

By mid-twentieth century, a working consensus had been reached in the linguistics community, based on the great achievements of preceding years. Synchronic linguistics had been established as a science, a “taxonomic” science, with sophisticated procedures of analysis of data. Taxonomic science has limits. It does not ask “why?” The time was ripe to seek explanatory theories, using insights provided by the theory of computation and studies of explanatory depth. That effort became the generative enterprise within the biolinguistics framework. Tensions quickly arose: The elements of explanatory theories (generative grammars) were far beyond the reach of taxonomic procedures. The structuralist principle that language is a matter of training and habit, extended by analogy, was unsustainable. More generally, the mood of “virtually everything is known” became “almost nothing is understood,” a familiar phenomenon in the history of science, opening a new and exciting era for a flourishing discipline. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Linguistics, Volume 7 is January 14, 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.


Author(s):  
Veli Virmajoki

Abstract In this paper, I explicate desiderata for accounts of explanation in historiography. I argue that a fully developed account of explanation in historiography must explicate many explanation-related notions in order to be satisfactory. In particular, it is not enough that an account defines the basic structure of explanation. In addition, the account of explanation must be able to explicate notions such as minimal explanation, complete explanation, historiographical explanation, explanatory depth, explanatory competition, and explanatory goal. Moreover, the account should also tell how explananda can be chosen in a motivated way. Furthermore, the account should be able to clarify notions that are closely connected with explanation such as historical contingency. Finally, it is important that the account is able to recognize when explanation-related notions and issues are so closely intertwined that we are in danger of not seeing the differences between them. In other words, I argue that a satisfactory account of explanation in historiography must have the power to explicate central explanation-related notions and to clarify discussions where the differences between the notions are obscure. In order to explicate these desiderata, I formulate a (version of the) counterfactual account of explanation and show how that account is able to explicate explanation-related notions and clarify issues that are connected with historiographical explanations. The success of the counterfactual account suggests that historiographical explanations do not differ fundamentally from explanations in many other fields.


2002 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 521-562 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonid Rozenblit ◽  
Frank Keil
Keyword(s):  

2021 ◽  
Vol 51 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Feraz Azhar ◽  
Abraham Loeb
Keyword(s):  

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan G. Voelkel ◽  
Mark John Brandt ◽  
Matteo Colombo

People are prejudiced towards groups they perceive as having a worldview dissimilar from their own. This link between perceived attitudinal dissimilarity and prejudice is so stable that it has been described as a psychological law (Byrne, 1969). The current research tests whether reducing people’s (over-)confidence in their own understanding of policies by puncturing their illusion of explanatory depth in the political domain will reduce the link between perceived attitudinal dissimilarity and prejudice. In an initial pre-registered experiment (N = 296), we did not find support for our hypothesis, but exploratory analyses indicated that thehypothesized effect occurred for political moderates (but not for people who identified as strong liberals/conservatives). However, despite successfully manipulating people’s understanding of policies, in the main study (N = 492) we did not replicate the result of the initial experiment. We suggest potential explanations for our results and discuss future directions for research on breaking the link between attitudinal dissimilarity and prejudice.


2018 ◽  
Vol 48 (7) ◽  
pp. 955-969 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph A. Vitriol ◽  
Jessecae K. Marsh

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