scholarly journals Intra-SADC Foreign Direct Investment: A Gravity Approach to South Africa Outward Investment

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 79
Author(s):  
Onelie Nkuna
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
South African ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Outward Fdi ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Agglomeration Effects

<p>This paper looks at intra-SADC FDI, focusing at South Africa outward FDI into SADC countries. LSDV and GMM estimation techniques are applied in a gravity model for the period 1999 to 2010. The study finds strong evidence that intra-trade and intra-FDI are negatively related, suggestive of a substitutive relationship between intra-SADC trade and intra-SADC FDI. The study also reveals that capital account openness, bilateral investment treaties, and labour availability are key in promoting intra-SADC FDI flows. Further, the study finds evidence that agglomeration effects are important for South African investors into SADC despite the fact that they are operating in a common region. The study also finds that FDI from developed countries complement with FDI from South Africa.</p>lts indicate that there is long-run level equilibrium relationship between the stock price of Taiwan and the NTD/USD exchange rates at lower distribution of stock prices, and at higher and lower distribution of exchange rates. The causality results show that there is unidirectional causality running from Taiwan stock price to the NTD/USD exchange rate at higher distribution of exchange rates. The result shows that there is evidence in favor of the portfolio hypothesis.<p> </p>

scholarly journals THE LONG-RUN RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INFLATION AND REAL STOCK PRICES: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM SOUTH AFRICA

2012 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 600-613 ◽  
Author(s):  
Riona Arjoon ◽  
Mariëtte Botes ◽  
Laban K. Chesang ◽  
Rangan Gupta
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Positive Real ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Price Response ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Real Value

The existing literature on the theoretical relationship between the rate of inflation and real stock prices in an economy has shown varied predictions about the long run effects of inflation on real stock prices. In this paper, we present some time series evidence on this issue using South African data, by applying the structural bivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) methodology proposed by King and Watson (1997). Our empirical results provide considerable support of the view that, in the long run real stock prices are invariant to permanent changes in the rate of inflation. The impulse responses reveal a positive real stock price response to a permanent inflation shock in the long run, indicating that any deviations in short run real stock prices will be corrected towards the long run value. It is therefore concluded that inflation does not lower the real value of stocks in South Africa, at least in the long run.

scholarly journals How applicable is export-led growth and import-led growth hypotheses to South African economy?

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 15-24
Author(s):  
Ntebogang Dinah Moroke ◽  
Molebogeng Manoto
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Adverse Effect ◽  
Time Series ◽  
South African ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship

This paper investigated exports, imports and the economic growth nexus in the context of South Africa. The paper sets out to examine if long-run and causal relationships exist between these variables. Quarterly time series data ranging between 1998 and 2013 obtained from the South African Reserve Bank and Quantec databases was employed. Initial data analysis proved that the variables are integrated at their levels. The results further indicated that exports, imports and economic growth are co-integrated, confirming an existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship. Granger causal results were shown running from exports and imports to GDP and from imports to exports, validating export-led and import-led growth hypotheses in South Africa. A significant causality running from imports to exports, suggests that South Africa imported finished goods in excess. If this is not avoided, lots of problems could be caused. A suggestion was made to avoid such problematic issues as they may lead to replaced domestic output and displacement of employees. Another dreadful ramification may be an adverse effect on the economy which may further be experienced in the long-run.

Dynamic Relationship between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates in Emerging Markets

2015 ◽  
pp. 166-181 ◽  
Author(s):  
Veli Akel ◽  
SerkanYılmaz Kandır ◽  
Özge Selvi Yavuz
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Tests

All the emerging markets are vulnerable to the fears of capital outflows after the US Federal Reserve's tapering on May 22, 2013. The term “Fragile Five” was introduced by a research note of Morgan Stanley to refer to the countries of Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey. The aim of this study is to examine whether there are stock and foreign exchange markets integration among Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey. The authors employ cointegration-based tests, vector error correction modeling techniques, and Granger causality tests to examine the long-run and short-run linkages between stock prices and exchange rates. The results of cointegration tests suggest that there is one long-run stationary relationship between the stock indices and the foreign exchange rates. Four of the Fragile Five (excluding Brazil) show that the stock prices are positively associated with exchange rates. Finally, vector error correction estimates lead to miscellaneous results.

scholarly journals Co-Integration between Stock Prices and Exchange Rate of Selected SAARC Countries: An Empirical Study

2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 82
Author(s):  
Sumaira Channa ◽  
Pervaiz Ahmed Memon ◽  
Muhammad Ramzan Kalhoro
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Feedback Effects ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

This study examines the relationship between stock prices and exchange rates of three selected SAARC countries including Pakistan, India and Srilanka; using monthly data from period of January 1999 to December 2015. This study employs statistical techniques of Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF), Phillips Perron (PP), unit root tests, and Johansen’s Co-integration test to determine long run equilibrium association ship between stock price indices and exchange rates. The study finds out no Co-integration between the two variables, hence no long run association is existing between them. This finding implies that investors in these markets are having more opportunities for diversifying their portfolios. However, using Granger Causality and impulse response tests, it finds significant short-run feedback effects, as stock prices Granger cause exchange rates in case of Pakistan and unidirectional causality flows from exchange rates to stock prices in case of Srilanka but no proof of causality running in either direction in case of India. Hence the findings for Pakistan and Srilanka have crucial policy implications.

scholarly journals Exploring Relationship Between the Stock Price of Taiwan and the Exchange Rate: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model with a Quantile Regression

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 72 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tzu-Kuang Hsu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Quantile Regression ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Lag Model

<p>This paper adopts an innovative method through combining an autoregressive distributed lag model and a quantile regression to examine the long-run equilibrium and short-run causal relationship between the stock price of Taiwan and the NTD/USD exchange rate from January 1980 to December 2014. The results indicate that there is long-run level equilibrium relationship between the stock price of Taiwan and the NTD/USD exchange rates at lower distribution of stock prices, and at higher and lower distribution of exchange rates. The causality results show that there is unidirectional causality running from Taiwan stock price to the NTD/USD exchange rate at higher distribution of exchange rates. The result shows that there is evidence in favor of the portfolio hypothesis.</p>

Dynamic Relationship between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates in Emerging Markets

2016 ◽  
pp. 2257-2273
Author(s):  
Veli Akel ◽  
SerkanYılmaz Kandır ◽  
Özge Selvi Yavuz
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Tests

All the emerging markets are vulnerable to the fears of capital outflows after the US Federal Reserve's tapering on May 22, 2013. The term “Fragile Five” was introduced by a research note of Morgan Stanley to refer to the countries of Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey. The aim of this study is to examine whether there are stock and foreign exchange markets integration among Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey. The authors employ cointegration-based tests, vector error correction modeling techniques, and Granger causality tests to examine the long-run and short-run linkages between stock prices and exchange rates. The results of cointegration tests suggest that there is one long-run stationary relationship between the stock indices and the foreign exchange rates. Four of the Fragile Five (excluding Brazil) show that the stock prices are positively associated with exchange rates. Finally, vector error correction estimates lead to miscellaneous results.

scholarly journals Effects of Macroeconomic Volatility on Stock Prices in Kenya: A Cointegration Evidence from the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE)

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muinde Patrick Mumo
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Volatility ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Macro Variables ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium

This study examined the effects of macroeconomic volatility on stock prices via selected macro variables using the Johansen co-integration methodology. Time series data was obtained from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) and the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) for the period 1998-2015. Macro variables studied include inflation, money supply, exchange rates and interest rates against the NSE 20 share index. The study exploits the presence of unit roots of order 1(1) on the data set to apply the Johansen procedure and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) for data analysis. The study finds both a long-run equilibrium relationship between stock prices and the macroeconomic variables and between inflation and other macro variables. Specifically, and contrary to earlier evidence on the Kenyan market, the results suggest a negative long-run equilibrium relationship between money supply and stock prices. Inflation shows negative but insignificant relationship. Exchange rates and interest rates show a positive relationship. The short-term dynamics from the VECM support earlier documented evidence, implying the earlier evidence reflect short-run and not long-run dynamics.The study concludes that the effects of inflation seem to outweigh any possible gains from money supply on aggregate firm output in the long-run. Also, the study adduces evidence of possible spurious problems on earlier documented evidence from the reviewed studies that could be attributable to non stochastic processes in the models used. A robustness check using a multivariate approach points to this and confirms the co-integration results.

Financial integration in emerging economies: an application of threshold cointegration

2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sajid Ali ◽  
Mobeen Ur Rehman ◽  
Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad ◽  
Naveed Raza ◽  
Xuan Vinh Vo
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Financial Integration ◽  
Good News ◽  
Speed Of Adjustment ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Indian Stock Market

AbstractThe asymmetric short – and long-run relationships between BRICS stock markets are examined using monthly stock price data from January 2001 through December 2014. The asymmetric co-integration analysis confirms the presence of a long-run association between the BRICS stock markets; where, the speed of adjustment to the negative shocks is higher and statistically significant for the Brazil-India and China-India pairs, which indicates quick adjustment of stock prices to bad news compared to good news. Conversely, the speed of adjustment for Indian and South African stock markets is higher for positive shocks, while the relationship between the stock markets pair of Russia and South Africa is linear. The results of asymmetric error correction model (AECM) reveal evidence of bidirectional causality between China-India, India-South Africa and South Africa-Russia, while unidirectional causality runs from the Indian to Brazilian stock market. Thus, we can safely conclude that the Indian stock market has long-run and short-run relationships with most of the other stock markets. This suggests that investors should pay attention to the Indian stock market when investing in BRICS stock markets.

Region of Birth and Child Mortality among Black Migrants to South Africa: Is there a foreign-born advantage?

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 359-376 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tiffany L Green ◽  
Amos C Peters
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
Child Mortality ◽  
Southern Africa ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Black Immigrants ◽  
Foreign Born ◽  
Region Of Origin ◽  
Child Deaths

Much of the existing evidence for the healthy immigrant advantage comes from developed countries. We investigate whether an immigrant health advantage exists in South Africa, an important emerging economy.  Using the 2001 South African Census, this study examines differences in child mortality between native-born South African and immigrant blacks.  We find that accounting for region of origin is critical: immigrants from southern Africa are more likely to experience higher lifetime child mortality compared to the native-born population.  Further, immigrants from outside of southern Africa are less likely than both groups to experience child deaths.  Finally, in contrast to patterns observed in developed countries, we detect a strong relationship between schooling and child mortality among black immigrants.

scholarly journals Adherence barriers and facilitators for cervical screening amongst currently disadvantaged women in the greater Cape Town region of South Africa

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chantelle De Abreu ◽  
Hannah Horsfall ◽  
Despina Learmonth
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
Symptom Relief ◽  
Cervical Screening ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Physical Symptoms ◽  
African Women ◽  
Structural Barriers ◽  
Refugee Status ◽  
Disadvantaged Women

Background: In South Africa cervical cancer is the second most commonly occurring cancer amongst women, and black African women have the highest risk of developing this disease. Unfortunately, the majority of South African women do not adhere to recommended regular cervical screening.Objectives: The purpose of this research was to explore the perceptions, experiences and knowledge regarding cervical screening of disadvantaged women in two informal settlements in South African urban areas.Method: The Health Belief Model (HBM) provided a theoretical framework for this study. Four focus groups (n = 21) were conducted, using questions derived from the HBM, and thematic analysis was used to analyse the data. The ages of the women who participated ranged from 21 to 53 years.Results: The analysis revealed lack of knowledge about screening as a key structural barrier to treatment. Other structural barriers were: time, age at which free screening is available, and health education. The psychosocial barriers that were identified included: fear of the screening procedure and of the stigmatisation in attending screening. The presence of physical symptoms, the perception that screening provides symptom relief, HIV status, and the desire to know one’s physical health status were identified as facilitators of cervical screening adherence.Conclusion: This knowledge has the potential to inform healthcare policy and services in South Africa. As globalisation persists and individuals continue to immigrate or seek refugee status in foreign countries, increased understanding and knowledge is required for successful acculturation and integration. Developed countries may therefore also benefit from research findings in developing countries.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document