Climate Policy and the Steel Industry: Achieving Global Emission Reductions by an Incomplete Climate Agreement

This paper examines how changes in an international climate regime would affect the European decarbonization strategy and costs through the mechanisms of trade, technology, and innovation. We present the results from the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) model comparison study on European climate policy to 2050. Moving from a no-policy scenario to an existing-policies case reduces all energy imports, on average. Introducing a more stringent climate policy target for the EU only leads to slightly greater global emission reductions. Consumers and producers in Europe bear most of the additional burden and inevitably face some economic losses. More ambitious mitigation action outside Europe, especially when paired with a well-operating global carbon market, could reduce the burden for Europe significantly. Because of global learning, the costs of wind and especially solar-PV in Europe would decline below the levels observed in the existing-policy case and increased R&D spending outside the EU would leverage EU R&D investments as well.

Download Full-text

Lower air pollution during COVID-19 lock-down: improving models and methods estimating ozone impacts on crops

Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences ◽

10.1098/rsta.2020.0188 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 378 (2183) ◽

pp. 20200188 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Frank Dentener ◽

Lisa Emberson ◽

Stefano Galmarini ◽

Giovanni Cappelli ◽

Anisoara Irimescu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Crop Yields ◽

Growing Season ◽

Road Transport ◽

Initial Assessment ◽

Emission Reductions ◽

International Shipping ◽

Crop Models ◽

Global Emission ◽

Emission Changes ◽

Ozone Precursor

We suggest that the unprecedented and unintended decrease of emissions of air pollutants during the COVID-19 lock-down in 2020 could lead to declining seasonal ozone concentrations and positive impacts on crop yields. An initial assessment of the potential effects of COVID-19 emission reductions was made using a set of six scenarios that variously assumed annual European and global emission reductions of 30% and 50% for the energy, industry, road transport and international shipping sectors, and 80% for the aviation sector. The greatest ozone reductions during the growing season reached up to 12 ppb over crop growing regions in Asia and up to 6 ppb in North America and Europe for the 50% global reduction scenario. In Europe, ozone responses are more sensitive to emission declines in other continents, international shipping and aviation than to emissions changes within Europe. We demonstrate that for wheat the overall magnitude of ozone precursor emission changes could lead to yield improvements between 2% and 8%. The expected magnitude of ozone precursor emission reductions during the Northern Hemisphere growing season in 2020 presents an opportunity to test and improve crop models and experimentally based exposure response relationships of ozone impacts on crops, under real-world conditions. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Air quality, past present and future’.

Download Full-text

United States Climate Policy: Using Market-Based Strategies to Achieve Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions

SSRN Electronic Journal ◽

10.2139/ssrn.1015849 ◽

2007 ◽

Author(s):

Kevin L. Doran ◽

Alaine Ginnochio

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Greenhouse Gas ◽

Climate Policy ◽

Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽

Gas Emission ◽

Emission Reductions

Download Full-text

The bears are right: Why cap-and-trade yields greater emission reductions than expected, and what that means for climate policy

Climatic Change ◽

10.1007/s10584-014-1282-1 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 127 (3-4) ◽

pp. 447-461 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Endre Tvinnereim

Keyword(s):

Climate Policy ◽

Cap And Trade ◽

Emission Reductions

Download Full-text

WHAT DOES THE 2°C TARGET IMPLY FOR A GLOBAL CLIMATE AGREEMENT IN 2020? THE LIMITS STUDY ON DURBAN PLATFORM SCENARIOS

Climate Change Economics ◽

10.1142/s2010007813400083 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 04 (04) ◽

pp. 1340008 ◽

Cited By ~ 86

Author(s):

ELMAR KRIEGLER ◽

MASSIMO TAVONI ◽

TINO ABOUMAHBOUB ◽

GUNNAR LUDERER ◽

KATHERINE CALVIN ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Policy ◽

Economic Impacts ◽

Global Climate ◽

Exceedance Probability ◽

Global Emission ◽

Long Run ◽

Policy Objectives ◽

Emissions Intensity ◽

Near Term

This paper provides a novel and comprehensive model-based assessment of possible outcomes of the Durban Platform negotiations with a focus on emissions reduction requirements, the consistency with the 2°C target and global economic impacts. The Durban Platform scenarios investigated in the LIMITS study — all assuming the implementation of comprehensive global emission reductions after 2020, but assuming different 2020 emission reduction levels as well as different long-term concentration targets — exhibit a probability of exceeding the 2°C limit of 22–41% when reaching 450 (450–480) ppm CO 2 e , and 35–59% when reaching 500 (480–520) ppm CO 2 e in 2100. Forcing and temperature show a peak and decline pattern for both targets. Consistency of the resulting temperature trajectory with the 2°C target is a societal choice, and may be based on the maximum exceedance probability at the time of the peak and the long run exceedance probability, e.g., in the year 2100. The challenges of implementing a long-term target after a period of fragmented near-term climate policy can be significant as reflected in steep reductions of emissions intensity and transitional and long-term economic impacts. In particular, the challenges of adopting the target are significantly higher in 2030 than in 2020, both in terms of required emissions intensity decline rates and economic impacts. We conclude that an agreement on comprehensive emissions reductions to be implemented from 2020 onwards has particular significance for meeting long-term climate policy objectives.

Download Full-text

Prospects for global climate policy in 2016

Emerald Expert Briefings ◽

10.1108/oxan-db206955 ◽

2015 ◽

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Developing Countries ◽

Climate Policy ◽

Global Climate ◽

Double Counting ◽

Climate Regime ◽

Emission Reductions ◽

Content Type ◽

Loss And Damage ◽

Political Controversy

Subject Prospects for global climate policy in 2016. Significance Collective efforts to respond to climate change, as in previous years, will prove a source of domestic and international political controversy, particularly as vulnerable states cope with climate-induced loss and damage in a post-COP21 global climate regime. Pledges made by countries themselves at the COP21 summit -- both for emission reductions and for financial contributions to support developing countries -- will draw international scrutiny to avoid backsliding or double-counting.

Download Full-text

HTAP2 multi-model estimates of premature human mortality due to intercontinental transport of air pollution

10.5194/acp-2017-1221 ◽

2018 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Ciao-Kai Liang ◽

J. Jason West ◽

Raquel A. Silva ◽

Huisheng Bian ◽

Mian Chin ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Air Pollution ◽

Emission Reduction ◽

Premature Mortality ◽

Ambient Air ◽

Second Phase ◽

Pollution Transport ◽

Emission Reductions ◽

Premature Deaths ◽

Global Emission ◽

Concentration Changes

Abstract. Ambient air pollution from ozone and fine particulate matter is associated with premature mortality. As emissions from one continent influence air quality over others, changes in emissions can also influence human health on other continents. We estimate global air pollution-related premature mortality from exposure to PM2.5 and ozone, and the avoided deaths from 20 % anthropogenic emission reductions from six source regions, North America (NAM), Europe (EUR), South Asia (SAS), East Asia (EAS), Russia/Belarus/Ukraine (RBU) and the Middle East (MDE), three emission sectors, Power and Industry (PIN), Ground Transportation (TRN) and Residential (RES) and one global domain (GLO), using an ensemble of global chemical transport model simulations coordinated by the second phase of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP2), and epidemiologically-derived concentration-response functions. We build on results from previous studies of the TF-HTAP by using improved atmospheric models driven by new estimates of 2010 emissions, with more source and receptor regions, new consideration of source sector impacts, and new epidemiological mortality functions. We estimate 290,000 (95 % CI: 30,000, 600,000) premature O3-related deaths and 2.8 million (0.5 million, 4.6 million) PM2.5-related premature deaths globally for the baseline year 2010. While 20 % emission reductions from one region generally lead to more avoided deaths within the source region than outside, reducing emissions from MDE and RBU can avoid more O3-related deaths outside of these regions than within, and reducing MDE emissions also avoids more PM2.5-related deaths outside of MDE than within. In addition, EUR, MDE and RBU have more avoided O3-related deaths from reducing foreign emissions than from domestic reductions. For six regional emission reductions, the total avoided extraregional mortality is estimated as 10,300 (6,700, 13,400) deaths/year and 42,000 (12,400, 60,100) deaths/year through changes in O3 and PM2.5, respectively. Interregional transport of air pollutants leads to more deaths through changes in PM2.5 than in O3, even though O3 is transported more on interregional scales, since PM2.5 has a stronger influence on mortality. In sectoral emission reductions, TRN emissions account for the greatest fraction (26–53 % of global emission reduction) of O3-related premature deaths in most regions, except for EAS (58 %) and RBU (38 %) where PIN emissions dominate. In contrast, PIN emission reductions have the greatest fraction (38–78 % of global emission reduction) of PM2.5-related deaths in most regions, except for SAS (45 %) where RES emission dominates. The spread of air pollutant concentration changes across models contributes most to the overall uncertainty in estimated avoided deaths, highlighting the uncertainty in results based on a single model. Despite uncertainties, the health benefits of reduced intercontinental air pollution transport suggest that international cooperation may be desirable to mitigate pollution transported over long distances.

Download Full-text

HTAP2 multi-model estimates of premature human mortality due to intercontinental transport of air pollution and emission sectors

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-18-10497-2018 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 18 (14) ◽

pp. 10497-10520 ◽

Cited By ~ 18

Author(s):

Ciao-Kai Liang ◽

J. Jason West ◽

Raquel A. Silva ◽

Huisheng Bian ◽

Mian Chin ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Air Pollution ◽

Air Pollutants ◽

Emission Reduction ◽

Premature Mortality ◽

Ambient Air ◽

Second Phase ◽

Emission Reductions ◽

Premature Deaths ◽

Global Emission ◽

Concentration Changes

Abstract. Ambient air pollution from ozone and fine particulate matter is associated with premature mortality. As emissions from one continent influence air quality over others, changes in emissions can also influence human health on other continents. We estimate global air-pollution-related premature mortality from exposure to PM2.5 and ozone and the avoided deaths due to 20 % anthropogenic emission reductions from six source regions, North America (NAM), Europe (EUR), South Asia (SAS), East Asia (EAS), Russia–Belarus–Ukraine (RBU), and the Middle East (MDE), three global emission sectors, power and industry (PIN), ground transportation (TRN), and residential (RES), and one global domain (GLO), using an ensemble of global chemical transport model simulations coordinated by the second phase of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollutants (TF HTAP2), and epidemiologically derived concentration response functions. We build on results from previous studies of TF HTAP by using improved atmospheric models driven by new estimates of 2010 anthropogenic emissions (excluding methane), with more source and receptor regions, new consideration of source sector impacts, and new epidemiological mortality functions. We estimate 290 000 (95 % confidence interval (CI): 30 000, 600 000) premature O3-related deaths and 2.8 million (0.5 million, 4.6 million) PM2.5-related premature deaths globally for the baseline year 2010. While 20 % emission reductions from one region generally lead to more avoided deaths within the source region than outside, reducing emissions from MDE and RBU can avoid more O3-related deaths outside of these regions than within, and reducing MDE emissions also avoids more PM2.5-related deaths outside of MDE than within. Our findings that most avoided O3-related deaths from emission reductions in NAM and EUR occur outside of those regions contrast with those of previous studies, while estimates of PM2.5-related deaths from NAM, EUR, SAS, and EAS emission reductions agree well. In addition, EUR, MDE, and RBU have more avoided O3-related deaths from reducing foreign emissions than from domestic reductions. For six regional emission reductions, the total avoided extra-regional mortality is estimated as 6000 (−3400, 15 500) deaths per year and 25 100 (8200, 35 800) deaths per year through changes in O3 and PM2.5, respectively. Interregional transport of air pollutants leads to more deaths through changes in PM2.5 than in O3, even though O3 is transported more on interregional scales, since PM2.5 has a stronger influence on mortality. For NAM and EUR, our estimates of avoided mortality from regional and extra-regional emission reductions are comparable to those estimated by regional models for these same experiments. In sectoral emission reductions, TRN emissions account for the greatest fraction (26–53 % of global emission reduction) of O3-related premature deaths in most regions, in agreement with previous studies, except for EAS (58 %) and RBU (38 %) where PIN emissions dominate. In contrast, PIN emission reductions have the greatest fraction (38–78 % of global emission reduction) of PM2.5-related deaths in most regions, except for SAS (45 %) where RES emission dominates, which differs with previous studies in which RES emissions dominate global health impacts. The spread of air pollutant concentration changes across models contributes most to the overall uncertainty in estimated avoided deaths, highlighting the uncertainty in results based on a single model. Despite uncertainties, the health benefits of reduced intercontinental air pollution transport suggest that international cooperation may be desirable to mitigate pollution transported over long distances.

Download Full-text