WHAT DOES THE 2°C TARGET IMPLY FOR A GLOBAL CLIMATE AGREEMENT IN 2020? THE LIMITS STUDY ON DURBAN PLATFORM SCENARIOS

2013 ◽  
Vol 04 (04) ◽  
pp. 1340008 ◽  
Author(s):  
ELMAR KRIEGLER ◽  
MASSIMO TAVONI ◽  
TINO ABOUMAHBOUB ◽  
GUNNAR LUDERER ◽  
KATHERINE CALVIN ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Policy ◽  
Economic Impacts ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Global Emission ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Policy Objectives ◽  
Emissions Intensity ◽  
Near Term

This paper provides a novel and comprehensive model-based assessment of possible outcomes of the Durban Platform negotiations with a focus on emissions reduction requirements, the consistency with the 2°C target and global economic impacts. The Durban Platform scenarios investigated in the LIMITS study — all assuming the implementation of comprehensive global emission reductions after 2020, but assuming different 2020 emission reduction levels as well as different long-term concentration targets — exhibit a probability of exceeding the 2°C limit of 22–41% when reaching 450 (450–480) ppm CO 2 e , and 35–59% when reaching 500 (480–520) ppm CO 2 e in 2100. Forcing and temperature show a peak and decline pattern for both targets. Consistency of the resulting temperature trajectory with the 2°C target is a societal choice, and may be based on the maximum exceedance probability at the time of the peak and the long run exceedance probability, e.g., in the year 2100. The challenges of implementing a long-term target after a period of fragmented near-term climate policy can be significant as reflected in steep reductions of emissions intensity and transitional and long-term economic impacts. In particular, the challenges of adopting the target are significantly higher in 2030 than in 2020, both in terms of required emissions intensity decline rates and economic impacts. We conclude that an agreement on comprehensive emissions reductions to be implemented from 2020 onwards has particular significance for meeting long-term climate policy objectives.

Capacity building for proportionate climate policy: Lessons from India and South Africa

2020 ◽  
pp. 019251212096388
Author(s):  
Prabhat Upadhyaya ◽  
Manish Kumar Shrivastava ◽  
Ganesh Gorti ◽  
Saliem Fakir
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Capacity Building ◽  
Climate Policy ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
The State ◽  
Successful Implementation ◽  
Discretionary Power ◽  
Nationally Determined Contributions ◽  
Definitive Role

Countries must develop their capacity to credibly revise their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) proportionate to the global climate goal. This paper argues that long-lasting capacity is necessarily embedded in the institutions governing cooperation between state and non-state actors. This institutional capacity for cooperation is determined by the two interactive processes of conception and calibration, where the state plays a definitive role in mediating between competing interests. In conception, the state uses its discretionary power to set the long-term vision, whereas during calibration it exercises flexibility to accommodate concerns and capacity of other actors. We conclude that proportionality of policy response is better understood, and achieved, through the convergence of both these processes. Drawing on climate policy experiences of India and South Africa, we recommend that successful implementation and enhancement of NDCs would require a greater emphasis on capacity building for calibration in developing countries.

scholarly journals Energy Security in Turbulent Times Towards the European Green Deal

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 360-369 ◽  
Author(s):  
Odysseas Christou
Keyword(s):  
Climate Policy ◽  
Energy Security ◽  
Policy Documents ◽  
Policy Adaptation ◽  
Turbulent Times ◽  
Policy Objectives ◽  
Narrow Definition ◽  
Energy And Climate Policy ◽  
The Eu

This article presents a theoretical approach to energy security. It incorporates the concept of governing through turbulence as both a response to crisis onset and a source of long-term policy adaptation. The article applies this framework to an empirical analysis of the energy and climate policy of the EU through a review of policy documents in the period between 1995 and 2020. The article presents the evolution in the conceptualization of energy security in EU policy from a narrow definition restricted to characteristics of energy supply to an expanded conception that integrates additional elements from associated policy areas. The article argues that the European Green Deal represents the culmination of this process and concludes that the convergence of energy and climate policy objectives reinforces the trend towards the widened conceptual scope of energy security.

scholarly journals A MULTI-MODEL ANALYSIS OF THE REGIONAL AND SECTORAL ROLES OF BIOENERGY IN NEAR- AND LONG-TERM CO2 EMISSIONS REDUCTION

2013 ◽  
Vol 04 (04) ◽  
pp. 1340014 ◽  
Author(s):  
KATHERINE CALVIN ◽  
MARSHALL WISE ◽  
DAVID KLEIN ◽  
DAVID McCOLLUM ◽  
MASSIMO TAVONI ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Climate ◽  
Emissions Reduction ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Mixed Effect ◽  
Regional Patterns ◽  
Climate Policies ◽  
Supply Potential ◽  
Bioenergy Feedstocks ◽  
Near Term

This paper examines the near- and the long-term contribution of regional and sectoral bioenergy use in response to both regionally diverse near-term policies and longer-term global climate change mitigation policies. The use of several models provides a source of heterogeneity in terms of incorporating uncertain assumptions about future socioeconomics and technology, as well as different paradigms for how different regions and major economies of the world may respond to climate policies. The results highlight the heterogeneity and versatility of bioenergy itself, with different types of resources and applications in several energy sectors. In large part due to this versatility, the contribution of bioenergy to climate mitigation is a robust response across all models. Regional differences in bioenergy consumption, however, highlight the importance of assumptions about trade in bioenergy feedstocks and the influence of energy and climate policies. When global trade in bioenergy is possible, regional patterns of bioenergy use follow global patterns. When trade is assumed not to be feasible, regions with high bioenergy supply potential tend to consume more bioenergy than other regions. Energy and climate policies, such as renewable energy targets, can incentivize bioenergy use, but specifics of the policies will dictate the degree to which this is true. For example, renewable final energy targets, which include electric and non-electric renewable sources, increase bioenergy use in all models, while electric-only renewable targets have a mixed effect on bioenergy use across models.

scholarly journals Estimates of the long-term U.S. economic impacts of global climate change-induced drought.

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Andrew Ehlen ◽  
Verne W. Loose ◽  
Drake E. Warren ◽  
Vanessa N. Vargas
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Economic Impacts ◽  
Global Climate

ON THE REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF CLIMATE MITIGATION COSTS: THE IMPACT OF DELAYED COOPERATIVE ACTION

2014 ◽  
Vol 05 (01) ◽  
pp. 1440002 ◽  
Author(s):  
TINO ABOUMAHBOUB ◽  
GUNNAR LUDERER ◽  
ELMAR KRIEGLER ◽  
MARIAN LEIMBACH ◽  
NICO BAUER ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Technological Development ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Distribution ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Cooperative Action ◽  
Trade Effects ◽  
Mitigation Costs ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Impact

This paper analyzes the results of the climate-energy-economy model, Regionalized Model of Investment and Technological Development (REMIND), to assess the regional costs of climate-change mitigation for reaching the 2°C target with a medium to high likelihood. We assume that the global climate regime remains fragmented until 2020 after which a global mitigation target is adopted. We decompose the regional mitigation costs into (a) domestic and energy trade effects and (b) permit trade effects. Delaying cooperative action affects domestic costs by increasing the energy system's costs as a consequence of lock-in of carbon-intensive infrastructures. This is particularly true in developing countries with low near-term emissions reduction commitments. In a global cap-and-trade system, the effect of delayed action highly depends on whether or not the regions are over- or under-allocated with emissions allowances in the long term. Those with allowances exceeding their long-term emissions will likely benefit from the delay, while others suffer the consequences of higher long-term carbon prices.

scholarly journals Re-evaluating the changing geographies of climate activism and the state in the post-climate emergency era in the build-up to COP26

2021 ◽  
Vol 9s5 ◽  
pp. 69-93
Author(s):  
Andrew P. Kythreotis ◽  
Candice Howarth ◽  
Theresa G. Mercer ◽  
Hannah Awcock ◽  
Andrew E.G. Jonas
Keyword(s):  
Climate Policy ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Urban Climate ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
Climate Governance ◽  
Climate Action ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
The Uk ◽  
National Governments

A key aim of much climate activism is to enhance climate ambition and hold local and national governments, as well as global governance forums like the United Nations (UN), to account for the ways in which they implement and monitor climate policy across society to reverse long-term climate change. In recent years new local forms of climate activism, particularly at the urban scale, have taken a more prominent role in this. Although place-based, such local forms of climate activism are at the same time multi-scalar in orientation and strategic focus. This is particularly true in the UK where climate activism has prompted a number of local councils to declare climate emergencies, providing a mechanism by which they can become locally accountable in the delivery of their climate action plans, whilst at the same time holding national government to prior and future commitments to global climate governance. Using interview data with experts working on climate emergency declarations research across the UK, we critically discuss four key themes that have underpinned and catalysed the changing geographies of civil-state relationships within the climate emergency and what this may mean for future global climate governance under the UNFCCC Conferences of the Parties (COP). We argue that decision-makers at COP26 need to take greater heed of the significance of this new broader urban climate activism and its role in geopolitically mobilising more equitable, democratic and inclusive forms of climate governance which give citizens and civil society more credence within global climate policy decision-making processes that have been up to now, dominated by national state discourses.

scholarly journals On the Predictive Power of the Malaysian T Bills Term Spread in Predicting Real Economic Activity

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Noor Azlan Ghazali ◽  
Soo Wah Low
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Equation System ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Economic Cycle ◽  
Term Spread ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Near Term

The ability of financial market interest rates to predict real economic activity has gained considerable attention of economics and financial researchers. In this regard, the term spread, i.e. the difference between long term and short term yield is argued to be an effective indicator to predict economic cycle. We investigate this proposition for the Malaysian economy using the T bills discount rates. Our results of both, single and multi-equation system of vector autoregression (VAR), support the case for Malaysia. Current T bills spread is shown to be a significant indicator for annual output growth for up to six months ahead. We also show that information conveyed by the term spread is unique and not of those implied by the monetary policy. Our results also indicate that, the power of term spread is limited for the near term prediction and over the long run money dominates spread in predicting output.  

Infrastructure mortgage in Russia: Opportunities and prospects

2019 ◽  
pp. 114-133
Author(s):  
G. I. Idrisov ◽  
Y. Yu. Ponomarev
Keyword(s):  
Federal Government ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Expert Assessment ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Direct Impact ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Negative Effect

The article shows that depending on the goals pursued by the federal government and the available interbudgetary tools a different design of infrastructure mortgage is preferable. Three variants of such mortgage in Russia are proposed, each of which is better suited for certain types of projects and uses different forms of subsidies. According to our expert assessment the active use of infrastructure mortgage in Russia can increase the average annual GDP growth rate by 0.5 p. p. on the horizon of 5—7 years. In the long run the growth of infrastructure financing through the use of infrastructure mortgage could increase long-term economic growth by 0.9 p. p., which in 20—30 years can add 20—30% of GDP to the economy. However, the change in the structure of budget expenditures in the absence of an increase in the budget deficit and public debt will cause no direct impact on monetary policy. The increase in the deficit and the build-up of public debt will have a negative effect on inflation expectations, which will require monetary tightening for a longer time to stabilize them.

The foundations of peaceful coexistence after the war ... Mosul is a model

2019 ◽  
pp. 178
Author(s):  
Omar Hashim Thanon
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Diversity ◽  
Psychological Consequences ◽  
Peaceful Coexistence ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Mass Displacement ◽  
The Common ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Post War ◽  
Common Destiny

Since peaceful coexistence reflects in its various aspects the concept of harmony between the members of the same society with their different national, religious and sectarian affiliations, as well as their attitudes and ideas, what brings together these are the common bonds such as land, interests and common destiny. But this coexistence is exposing for crises and instability and the theft of rights and other that destroy the communities with their different religious, national, sectarian, ethnic aspects, especially if these led to a crisis of fighting or war, which produces only destruction and mass displacement, ttherefore, the process of bridging the gap between the different parts of society in the post-war phase through a set of requirements that serve as the basis for the promotion of peaceful coexistence within the same country to consolidate civil and community peace in order to create a general framework and a coherent basis to reconstruct the community again.      Hence the premise of the research by asking about the extent of the possibility and ability of the community of religious and ethnic diversity, which has been exposed to these crises, which aimed at this diversity, basically to be able to rise and re-integrate within the same country and thus achieve civil and community peace, and Mosul is an example for that, the negative effects of the war and the accomplices of many criminal acts have given rise to hatred and fear for all, leading to the loss of livelihoods, which in the long term may have devastating social and psychological consequences.        To clarify all of this, the title of the first topic was a review of the concept and origin of peaceful coexistence. While the second topic dealt with the requirements of peaceful coexistence and social integration in Mosul, the last topic has identified the most important challenges facing the processes of coexistence and integration in Mosul. All this in order to paint a better future for the conductor at all levels in the near term at the very least to achieve the values of this peaceful coexistence, especially in the post-war period.

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